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Samba_SamPa

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    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Pelicans (-2) to bt Nuggets 9pts @ 20/23 Bet365 Pelicans (-8) to bt Nuggets 3pts @ 2/1 Bet365 As you'll have been able to tell so far I am high on the Pelicans and low on the Nuggets, and despite Denver's 3-1 run I am not convinced by them yet. The Pelicans' Omer Asik has missed the last 2 and I was going to leave this game if he was out tonight again, but he's been activated and is set to play and his presence with Davis at the 4 and 5 can give the visitors a substantial edge against the Nuggets. New Orleans won in Sacramento last time despite being outrebounded 52-32 - with Asik back in the fold against this Nuggets side I would strongly assume there is no chance of the Pelicans suffering on the boards tonight and consequently they should be more than good enough to take this contest quite comfortably Trail Blazers (-8) to bt Bulls 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Much the same as when we opposed Chicago in Sacramento the other night when they were without Rose and Gasol so we shall tonight when they visit Portland. Without their 2 main parts of their offense, not to mention Gasol's rebounding prowess, they're handing a huge advantage to the Blazers. Noah is going to have his work cut out to put a dent in Aldridge and Lopez's frontcourt superiority, whilst Lillard is sinking 27ppg through his last 4, and missing Rose will do little for Chicago's hopes of guarding against him

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Spurs (-11) to bt Timberwolves 7pts @ 20/21 Bet365 The Spurs are on a 5-1 run, and in those 5 wins are victories at the Clippers, the Warriors and the Cavaliers - all of whom would be better teams than a full strength Minnesota team. The Spurs won't have to face anything resembling a full strength TWolves however - the home side will be without their top points scorer, their top rebounder, their top assister!! San Antonio didn't concede less than 94pts in a game in opening 2-3, but through their last 6 they have conceded just 87.3. They've also upped their average by 4ppg and are averaging 96.8ppg through their current 5-1 run. Against a severely depleted and shorthanded TWolves then current champions should be able to something considerable to spare Wizards (ml) to bt Cavaliers 5pts @ 11/10 Stan James Cleveland still being priced up on their individual players and not the sum of those talents that has been displayed so far this season. They come into this having lost consecutive home games to Denver and San Antonio, and have to face a Washington side for whom Bradley Beal saw his first action of the season against the Mavs last time with 26 minutes off the bench. Beal has been a big miss for the Wizards even as they have gone 7-3 to open the season, and his return to complement Wall in the backcourt can see them improve their home record to 5-1 at the expense of the misfiring title favourites

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Suns @ 76ers UNDER 208pts 6pts @ 10/11 On recent form the 76ers will struggle to put up enough points to enable the game total to get this high. They shoot a league low of 88.6pts, and things are so bad Papa Johns, who offer registered fans of clubs a certain discount when their team wins, have had to scrap the necessity of their team winning for Philly fans and instead class their side scoring 90+ pts as a 'win' :loon They're shooting a team average of .402 and only 2 of their players - Wroten & Carter Williams - average in double figures

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    Celtics @ 76ers UNDER 213.5pts 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365
    Suns (-2.5) to bt Pistons 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Suns (-8) to bt Pistons 3pts @ 21/10 Bet365 Grizzlies (+6) to bt Raptors 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Grizzlies (-2) to bt Raptors 2pts @ 13/5 Bet365
    Kings (-3) to bt Bulls 8pts @ 20/21 Bet365
    37-41-0 Staked 360.5pts Returns 367.08pts P/L ... +6.58pts

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Small loss for me last night on an evening of fine lines. I went to bed at 2am looking ok for a sweep, and woke up to find a missed FT with 1.0 seconds remaining for Phoenix meant a near 14pt swing against me, and the Grizz had thrown away the win and only covered the line. Will update totals when on computer tomorrow. Congrats to Norki for 2 winners and 0 losers :cheers On to tonight quickly and whilst we correctly opposed the Kings the other night, I think they're well worth backing against the Bulls. Shorn of Rose and Gasol for this game, they're going to need a huge game from Noah to contain Cousins Firstly - add in the proficiency Gay is displaying this season averaging almost 22ppg and I struggle to see the Bulls being able to put up the necessary offense without the injured stars to cause too much trouble to Sacramento. Kings (-3) to bt Bulls 8pts @ 20/21 Bet365 Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Suns (-2.5) to bt Pistons 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Suns (-8) to bt Pistons 3pts @ 21/10 Bet365 Detroit are a team - along with a few others - I am definitely 'down' on until they start showing more. I missed opposing them the other night at home to Orlando, not making the same mistake again. Phoenix arrive in town with a dynamic young guard-heavy lineup that can have too much energy for a Pistons team who have disappointed so far, never more so than on Monday night when they allowed the Magic to shoot almost 52% and win by 14pts. Phoenix won in Boston last time, and having seen how Orlando had success they can work themselves good looks against this Pistons team, whilst on the other end they should have Tucker back in the team which will only benefit them. Grizzlies (+6) to bt Raptors 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Grizzlies (-2) to bt Raptors 2pts @ 13/5 Bet365 WC leaders meet EC leaders, and this is essentially a play against the East. Even though the Raptors swept Memphis last season, I feel compelled to take the team who have compiled the best record in the nba, are 19-6 against the East since the start of last season, come into the game on the back of probably their best performance so far, AND are getting half a dozen points!

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Late finish, then badminton too, so I'm on the clock, so brevity is the order of the day unfortunately... Celtics @ 76ers UNDER 213.5pts 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Boston have shipped points aplenty with some woeful aptitude in the defensive end so far this season, but this is a game that must surely be marked down in the winnable column. Philly have slumped offensively during their recent 4-game road trip, and it taskes a leap of faith to assume they will suddenly find their range for being back at home. If the Celtics can hold it together and limit the 6ers to shoot under .450 then they can both keep the home side out of the W column and improve on their defensive efficiency Later tipoffs to come

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    Cavaliers (-11.5) to bt Nuggets 6pts @ 10/11 Bet365
    Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 187.5pts 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 76ers (+16.5) to bt Spurs 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 76ers (+10.5) to bt Spurs 2pts @ 2/1 Bet365 76ers @ Spurs UNDER 196pts 7pts @ 20/23 Coral
    Houston top-ranking defense shipped 119pts. The abysmal Nuggets ran into a Cavs side shooting their most abysmally. Spurs limited the minutes for all of their firsts and still comfortably bt the 76ers 32-37-0 Staked 312.5pts Returns 306.09pts P/L ... -6.41pts Lakers @ Hawks OVER 211pts 8pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Atlanta average just shy of 105pts at home so far this season, which through a complex mathematical equation factoring into account the fact they have averaged that against non-Lakers teams means they should score approximately 349pts against the actual Lakers tonight! Seriously though, that average against Pacers, Knicks, Jazz & Heat teams who combine to allow opponents to score an average of 97.8ppg, bodes well tonight when they face a Lakers team who allow opponents almost 15ppg MORE. Lakers can of course contribute to the final tally too against the =22nd defense, and with Nick Young scheduled to come off the bench for his season debut to add a further offensive weapon Knicks @ Bucks UNDER 192pts 6pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Milwaukee's 4 home games so far have seen totals of 174, 181, 185 & 163pts, and they face a Knicks team who outwith Melo aren't prolific scorers and rank 25th in terms of ppg this season. The Bucks don't even have a Melo however and rank 28th with an average of under 92ppg. I am maybe a little reticent to get too over-confident after the Rockets-Grizz game last night, but this line definitely looks plenty high enough. Pelicans (-2.5) to bt Kings 4pts @ 7/4 Ladbrokes I favour the dogs in this one, with NO's backcourt of Davis and Asik more than up to the task of quieting the scoring and rebounding of DeMarcus and placing the onus firmly on Gay to contribute the bulk of the offense. Tyreke Evans averaged 26ppg on his 2 appearances back where he started in Sacramento last season and if he can stay within a reasonable distance of Gay then the box-filling prowess of Anth Davis can hopefully prove the difference between 2 WC teams who will both be viewing the games against each other as important stepping stones to possible playoff appearances

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Rockets/Grizzlies UNDER 187.5pts 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 This line instinctively looks too high for a clash between the top 2 scoring defenses this season. Houston's offense has stumbled since returning from Mexico last week, but their defense has shown no such ill effects, grinding their opposition's average down under 89ppg. The Grizzlies don't have a potent offense at the best of times, never mind up against the Rockets' D - but they do have a stifling defense which gives up only 91.3ppg. I'm happily taking an under of this line in a game where it wouldn't be surprising should neither reach 90pts 76ers (+16.5) to bt Spurs 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 76ers (+10.5) to bt Spurs 2pts @ 2/1 Bet365 76ers @ Spurs UNDER 196pts 7pts @ 20/23 Coral Yes, I am taking the 0-9 76ers to cover on their trip to the reigning champions :unsure They were blown out in their 2 games prior to their most recent game in Houston, but in the other 3 of their last 5 games they have lost by a combined 6pts! They ran a jaded Rockets close in Houston the other day, and now travel to an aging Spurs lineup whom Coach Pop suggested were a little weary at the culmination of their 4-game road trip in Sacramento. They travel to face LeBron and the Cavs after tonight's 1-game stop off in San Antonio, and it would seem prudent to limit the wear on the likes of Manu and Duncan given they will continue to be without the services of Belinelli, Splitter and Mills. Spurs visited the free-scoring - even freer-conceding Lakers last week and they both scored and conceded way way under the Lakers' averages in a 173pt ballgame. Philly haven't scored more than 91 in 5 away games and only 1 of those 5 would have went over tonight's totals line. I'd expect the home side to try and set a sedate pace to this one tonight and rely on the quality not quantity of their shooting before moving to tougher challenges that lie ahead.

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Cavaliers (-11.5) to bt Nuggets 6pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Denver actually turned up in Indiana a couple games back to register a win against the shorthanded Pacers, but outwith that performance their road games have seen defeats by 11, 22, 16 & 16. They allowed the Knicks to stop a 7-game losing streak when going down 93-109 at MSG last night, and things only get harder with a trip to Cleveland to face a Cavaliers side finally starting to show some evidence of their newly acquired parts meshing together. The Cavs absolutely annihilated the Hawks 2 nights ago by 33pts, with 39 of their 49 made FGs being assisted as they zipped the ball with the ease that was expected prior to the season starting. LeBron's working his way closer to sharpness, and he got a bit of a breather playing just 28 minutes the other night. Cleveland won by 9 in Denver last week, have won every game since, and can cover what is a hefty line tonight.

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Magic (+9) to bt Wizards 6pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Orlando have turned a corner of late, in both performances and results. And they now have Victor Oladipo back in the fold - last season's #2 draft pick averaged almost 14ppg in his rookie year and will only improve with that behind him. The Magic have won 4 of their last 6, and were in position to win the other 2, and are actually 6-1 ATS in their last 7. Washington have the better record at 6-2 and will most probably win the game, but they haven't won with any particular authority in their last couple at home - beating Pistons and Pacers by a combined 6 and failing to cover in both. I do think Wiz probably win, but by only a handful - not a double handful

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Only 1 for me tonight. It's my little man's birthday so I likely won't get a chance to look at the player props til much later, so plan on just leaving it for tonight. The one line that has caught my eye is Bulls @ Raptors UNDER 197pts 6pts @ 5/6 Bet365 Bulls @ Raptors UNDER 190pts 2.5pts @ 8/5 Bet365 Toronto lead the league in scoring at 107ppg BUT they've had a pretty soft schedule thus far and they come up against a Chicago team boasting the 5th best FGM/A ratio at .427 tonight. Toronto can't boast a top-5 ratio like that, but what they do do is limit the amount of looks their opposition actually get - averaging only 78 attempts per game which is good for 4th in the league. Last season's 4 meetings between these 2 mustered a top total of just 186, and my feeling is this line is a touch high based on the recent history between the teams. I'm hoping for a low-90s/high-80s war of attrition between them for the 6th time in a row Good luck all

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    Marcin Gortat under 14.5pts 5pts @ 10/13 Bet365 Magic (+6.5) to bt Knicks 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Magic (+3) to bt Knicks 2pts @ 31/20 Bet365 Trail Blazers (+2.5) to bt Nuggets 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Trail Blazers (-4) to bt Nuggets 3pts @ 21/10 Bet365
    All green after too much red of late! Gortat shot 14pts so we sneaked under the line. Orlando held it together down the stretch after a back and forth battle the whole way - a crucial 5 minute spell in the final quarter where they held NY to just 2pts proved crucial as they turned around a 5pt deficit to take the lead for good, surviving a late Melo trey to win the match. Portland - wow! An 84pt first half proved unsurprisingly insurmountable for the Blazers and they beat the Nuggets comfortably for the 2nd time inside a week. 29-32-0 Staked 272pts Returns 270.28pts P/L ... -1.72pts

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Marcin Gortat under 14.5pts 5pts @ 10/13 Bet365 Gortat's pts line looks a couple too high to me. He is averaging 14ppg on the season, but has fallen beneath this line on his last 4 starts only going over on his first 3 starts of the season. He is most proficient in the paint but has the presence of Andre Drummond to overcome today, and last season Drummond proved somewhat of a stumbling block to Gortat - the Pole averaged just 10.75ppg against Drummond and the Pistons through 4 games, a mark he only shot lower than against 6 teams. Magic (+6.5) to bt Knicks 5pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Magic (+3) to bt Knicks 2pts @ 31/20 Bet365 Whilst the Knicks are mired in a 0-5 skid, Orlando have won 2 of their last 4 and have put themselves in the position to win the other 2 too - away to better sides than this Knicks outfit. With the home side struggling to adapt to the new triangle offense being implemented, this looks to be an opportunity to capitalise on a winning opportunity after throwing them away over the last few minutes of visits to Brooklyn and Toronto. A disjointed Knicks offense built to see the love and the shots spread around, but increasingly dominated by Melo, who has missed more shots than any of his teammates have attempted, combined with accusation from more than a few observers of a lack of energy and effort can provide the visitors with the perfect opportunity to avoid going 2-7 for the first time in 11 yrs Trail Blazers (+2.5) to bt Nuggets 7pts @ 10/11 Bet365 Trail Blazers (-4) to bt Nuggets 3pts @ 21/10 Bet365 I fully expected Portland to be maybe 2.5pt favourites, not dogs, for this one. Denver have not been good so far this season, they've lost 5 in a row - by an average of 12.6pts, they've lost the last 5 against the Blazers - including last weekend... by 16. Portland meanwhile have turned in some good performances, thrashing the Mavs and Cavs, going down narrowly at the Clippers, and were far too good for Denver in Portland - eroding a 1pt Denver lead 3:35 into proceedings and never letting the Nuggets lead again. Good luck all

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Congrats on the overs bet Norki :clap Also congrats too to the Mavs on saving their best 3rdQ of the season for the night I finally opposed them in it. And congrats to the Spurs for saving their best performance of the season for last night, and to Pop for not resting his veteran bigs this week. Still think both prices were value based on the information available at the time and taking past performance into account. Doesn't help the bottom line in the short term but hopefully we'd be mustard in the long term taking them 24-32-0 Staked 250pts Returns 221.57pts P/L ... -28.43pts Sent from my GT-I9300 using PL Forum

    NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

    in NFL Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NFL > 2014-2015 Matches

    Panthers - Eagles OVER 48pts 6pts @ 10/11 Skybet LeSean McCoy OVER 90.5 rushing yards 6pts @ 10/11 Ladbrokes
    An easy win and an easy loss. You can tell this was Shady's first week in my fantasy team :unsure 1-1-0 Staked 12pts Returns 11.45pts P/L ... -0.55pts

    NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15

    in NBA & Basketball Predictions

    Posted

    Re: NBA Regular Season matches 2014/15 Kings to bt Mavericks [3rd Q] 4pts @ 13/8 Paddy Power For whatever reason the Mavs have come out after half time and lost the 3rd Q in 6 of their 7 games so far. The scores haven't even been close either - they average 22.14pts scored to 30.88pts conceded in the period. The Kings don't have a dominant 3rd Q record - they are 3-3-1 and average 25pts scored and 23.71pts conceded - but against the Mavs and their curiously poor record I'm taking the odds against that's on offer Let's hope tonight goes better than last night :ok

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