Dumyat
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Posts posted by Dumyat
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Re: Euro 2012 Qualifying > 2nd-3rd September
B365 go 1.33 only one team scores - ie Holland win to nil. These are the 12 best sides SM have faced in qualifying over the last 20 years and they have found the net in 3. So 1.33 is not actually an edge. However the Dutch have a good record against rabbits so worth taking a chance.19990331 0 6 A A 0 2 San Marino Spain 20060906 0 13 A A 0 6 San Marino Germany 20051012 0 6 A A 0 3 San Marino Spain 19970430 0 6 A A 0 1 San Marino Netherlands 20010905 0 4 A A 0 1 San Marino Croatia 19930922 0 7 A A 0 3 San Marino Netherlands 20070908 0 3 A A 0 1 San Marino Czech Rep 20081119 0 3 X A 0 0 San Marino Czech Rep 20030607 1 6 A A 0 1 San Marino Sweden 19950607 0 7 A A 0 2 San Marino Russia 19931117 1 7 A A 1 3 San Marino England 20010606 1 4 X A 1 1 San Marino Belgium -
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Re: Football ratings system
Unfortunately my web skills dont allow any smart grabs from the Gooner's site - so I'm afraid it was just a tedious hour spent on H2H finding all matches that season with a 3 or more home edge - then sorting the file in team and date order and then going through gooner site to see what was the gooner rating on these games. If you look at any team on gooner site you can keep clicking backwards in time to eventually get all the ratings - so some web savvy person should prob be able to automate the task. I can only answer for the H2H performance that season since saved time by not noting down all the gooner figures if H2H less than 3. There were 58 matches with a HTH of 3 or more to the home - the return was 57.7. So a slight loser but significantly better than a pin. The prices are max bookie home prices from football-data.Dumyat, how did you calculate the H and A ratings? Are these Gooner's? thanks, onionbaj -
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 269 bets +23% yield I had a non-stop SPIN account for several years. More recently stops suited the types of trades I was placing so I phoned them up and asked for a change to a stop loss - it was as easy as that. Spin has one advantage over IG in relation to an account with stops. With an IG stop account you need to have the full worst case loss on deposit at the time of the trade otherwise you cannot bet. With SPIN you are still given credit which will be settled at the end of the account period.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 269 bets +23% yield
Muppet - How a stop loss works is listed in the top FAQ on the SPIN site What is stop loss, how does it work or can I change or remove it? A Sporting Index Stop Loss account limits your exposure to losses (but also to profits because it acts identically as a Stop Win) by automatically applying a maximum level (the 'Stop') to the trades at the time the bet is struck. A Stop Loss account therefore offers you all the thrills of spread betting but with the added security of limiting risk. It is the chance to spread bet with a safety net. It has work that way that your wins are restricted otherwise what would be the point of having any other type of account. All the upside and none of the spread terror downside of a freak make up. One reason why you may not want a stop account would relate to the type of bets you place. Imagine you used spread firms as a buyer of goals. So you will be buying at say 2.6 - what is the point of having a stop loss account - none. You already know the worst case is you lose 2.6 goals. (I think goal stops are set at max 5 goals). A stop account is ideal on the corners since the majority of the trades are sells. The only time you will miss out is when the make up is zero - ie if the sell was at 11. However if this was a buy corners thread then stops would be a bad idea since you would miss the freak high mu.yes you can implement a stop loss of 10 corners with the football total corners, as you can with cricket runs etc etc. (i don't think that they restrict wins to 10 corners though - unless someone knows the small print better??) -
Re: My Unders System Hi PALACE, I have been following the thread with interest. I salute anyone who posts tips - but one of the battles for readers is to sort the wheat from the chaff. So I'll lurk on a few threads before trying to establish if there is any insight. There are many tipsters but all may not be ultimately worthwhile - it is punter beware. Your gentle writing style and profitable tips make this one of the higher grade threads.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 260 bets +25% yield You are given a preset credit limit with Spin. Mine is 2k. So if I run up losses of 2k they'll want it repaid before I can continue to bet. With IG I have a deposit account. They take the worst case loss from the account prior to each trade. So if you bet corners at £50 then you need £500 sitting on deposit (stop loss 10). If you rack up bigger losses and can fund them then your limit will be upped - until the point where they squeeze the last drop in the bankruptcy court. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-1259072/Colin-Hendry-faces-ruin-gambling-debt-forced-sell-home.html?ITO=1490
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 255 bets +25% yield A more interesting discussion than how yield is assessed on spread bets is a look at what was expected and what actually happened. If you take all the matches featuring stakes of 3 units or more on unders only the total bookie sell points on the 96 matches summed to 1068.9 corners. If you use the Muppet estimates based on post 1 (eg a 3 stake is 0.75 below spread sell point - so if spread sell is 11 the Mup est is 10.25 etc) then it comes to 985.7. There were 983 corners!! ie Muppet is assessing these much more accurately than the spreads. Is 95 matches enough to be certain though - as Kevin Pullein mentioned in RP the other day betting has a habit of biting you back just when you think you have it cracked.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 248 bets +24% yield
You take £1000 on under bets and £1000 on over bets and you dont care who wins - you pick up the £500 from the spread width.Why would a site sets its level at 11.3 - 11.8 (for instance) is that basically saying under or over 11 as there can't be 0.8 of a corner? -
Re: Goals Galore Yes time is the killer in working these things out. So far had a look at Eng Championship 2008 and 2009 season and not at all favourable. EC 2009 there were 45 candidates and 19 where both scored EC 2008 there were 108 candidates and 53 where both scored It is amazing how often something which seems a completely obvious filter either doesn't improve things at all or doesn't improve things to the point where you can beat the odds. And I suppose Fred has picked 4/5 for a reason!
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Re: Goals Galore In the last 30000 or so matches in the three English Leagues below the Premier the average chance of both teams scoring in a match is about 52.2%. The Home team must average OVER 1 goal per home game scored AND conceded The Away team must average OVER 1 goal per away game scored AND conceded Does picking only these matches according to Samba's filter improve on that 52.2%? To overcome Fred's odds you need 55.5% just to break even. Say 5 seasons of data should be plenty to get a good estimate for how well the filter works.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 241 bets +21% yield And another one! Thx Muppet. (Altho chickened out of trying 7 pts)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 236 bets +20% yield Well done Muppet! Most folk can get a few wins in a lucky run but this is much better than that - something working over an extended period. Re the 10 corner stops. Yes it is very unlikely to kick in - estimate about 1 in every 100 sells will be 21 or more corners on EP matches picked at random.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 233 bets +19% yield If all the bets are made with a stop loss of 10 corners then you could work out stake by the total potential risk. A three unit bet is 30 stake turnover etc. So far total stakes are 4880 on that basis with 268 profit = 5.5% on turnover.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 223 bets +20% yield Nice Sunday recovery....and more Muppet. Just 4 in the Barca game.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +21% yield Muppet indicated earlier in the thread what was the expected gain for each staking unit. stake of 3 = out by at least one whole corner stake of 2 = 0.75-1 of a corner out stake of 1 = 0.5-0.75 of a corner out So you can multiply the number of bets times the expected gain and compare to actual. 1 unit = 101 bets = expected gain 50.5-75.75 : actual gain 18.3 2 unit = 38 bets = expected gain (28.5-38*2) 57-76 : actual gain 68.1 3 unit = 66 bets = expected gain (66-82.5*3) 198-248 : actual gain 135.75 over 3 = 13 bets = expected gain (19.5*4.5) 88 : actual gain 38.6 Not sure what can conclude from above - does that mean the three+ pointers underperforming what is expected of them. Maybe sample still isn't big enough since all the points categories (other than 2 pts) are not that close to expected.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield Muppet - the mistake is in that Stoke v Portsmouth game. When you corrected the total from 3 to 8 you made it a loser. It was a sell at 11.25 so it wins rather than loses 3.25 - which is where the 6.50 swing comes in - so you are doing slightly better than you thought! I dont like to use SPREADEX since I cant see how to get a stop loss/win on spread bets - which is available with Spin and IG. The open ended horror is what turns people off spreadbetting. OK say 40 corners on a sell is pretty unlikely but I'd rather it just wasn't an issue - so I'll use the firms which provide that security.
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 218 bets +20% yield Great thread Muppet! ********** Is the profit count correct? Just after the traumatic Huddersfield and Southampton games it was 192 bets with 223.85 profit. There were then 10 bets updated in post 582 - 202 bets and 222.75 profit. Clarky pointed out the Stoke v Portsmouth total was 5 corners wrong on a 1pt stake. So the profit should have been corrected to 217.75. In post 586 it is 211.25. So that seems to be 6.5 too low. If that was a mistake then currently it should be 260.75. ********* When betting with Spreadex - is there a stop loss/win option at 10 corners?
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? : 206 bets +18% yield Sell Xerez v Barca at 11 with IG.
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Re: World Cup Qualifiers - September 9/10 Malta v Sweden Obviously Malta are a weak side and Sweden have a big incentive to win - but can all that justify Malta +3 being 1.91 on Asian. This seems like an enormous price. To lose the bet Sweden have to win by 4 or more.
20040904 0 7 A A 0 3 Malta Sweden OK there's that one but I still think the price is way too big. I'm backing Malta +3 - I wonder if they have any players in pro leagues.
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Re: WC 2010 Qualifiers (Europe) 10 Jun 2009 The Russian fans seem to be reading rather a lot into Finland's struggle against Liechtenstein. The latter are not in the same category as say San Marino or Andorra. 20051008 2 1 A H 0 1 Portugal Liechtenstein Has everyone forgotten that one - in which the minnows even led at HT. I would give Russia about a 50% win chance so although they are favourites the prices make no appeal whatsoever at odds on. Of course they could win - but you have to bet in relation to price. Price says Russia can't be supported. In fact Finland plus the draw at PINN's 2.14 must be an edge. I also like Coral at 5/1 for the match to be a draw at half and full time.
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Re: Champions League Final - 27th of May - Barcelona v Man U Barca and MU are both 8/1 to win on PENS with Ladbrokes. Also with Ladbrokes the match is 5/1 to be decided on penalties. Not only do you have to shop around between bookies you have to be careful to pick the correct way to place the bet with offers from the same firm. Bet them both at 8/1 you only get 7/2. A case could be made for anything in this game but 5/1 is worth a chance on a dull draw and then the wonderful shootout - a chance to see multimillionaires cry!
Chess Olympiad 2010
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
Posted
1 Russia 1 2755 - 2.2 2 Ukraine 2737 - 6.5 3 China 2703 - 12 4 Russia 2 2702 - 16 5 Hungary 2698 - 34 It's not a great betting heat but the World Chess Olympiad starts today in the Siberian oil town of Khanty Mansiysk. There are 150 teams which play over 11 rounds. Matches are contested over four boards. http://www.ugra-chess.com/ Judging by the large number of systems at Punters Lounge which involve ELO ratings here's an event which uses the ranking system in its original form. The above 5 teams have the highest average ratings. http://chess-results.com/tnr36795.aspx?art=32&lan=1&fed=SCO&flag=30&m=-1&wi=1000 Before you lump on favourites Russia at 2.2 - was 2.5 earlier in the week - it is worth remembering that tiny Armenia won this in 2006 and 2008. Bet and Win are the only firm quoting - Paddy Power removed prices a few days ago. If they permitted each-way then the 12 about China or the Russian 2nd team would be good. However I think we'll see ELO favs Russia take the gold when it ends on October 3. The Russian government have promised $50k win bonuses for each player - not much by footy standards but important here.