Dumyat
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Posts posted by Dumyat
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Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October
Well as a rule international games are better left alone since there is negligible value to be found' date=' if any. [/quote'] What rule would that be? Already every match for the next set of qualifiers is at 100% book. Are all these matches priced perfectly according to the true chances in that match - I doubt it. If you have skill then you can pick these off. The side bets on internats away from the straight 1X2 have even greater scope for value hunting - several bookies still cant quite grasp just how remote is the chance of San Marino scoring. I personally cant find any value in horeracing but it doesn't mean others cant. -
Re: WC - Europe Qualification > 12 October
[TABLE] [TR] [TD]I dont think that stat you mention is true. I believe San Marino scored 2 away goals during the 2002 WC qualifiers in a 1-1 draw in Latvia and a 10-1 defeat in Belgium. Either way it makes no difference as that bet is just buying money and I am suprised its not a lot shorter.19921028
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Turkey
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San Marino
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19941214
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Finland
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San Marino
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Belgium
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San Marino
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Latvia
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[/TABLE] They were really hot in 2001. Something like 4 away goals in 50 qualifiers - all lost except Latvia. It's amazing they are so truly awful. Why dont some Italian players who fancy international football but not good enough for the full side check out to see if they have the required SAN MARINESE granny and get a game. -
Re: Value on the kick off bets The procedure for kick off is determined by FIFA's LAW 8 regarding the start and restart of play. http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/lawsofthegame/law/newsid=1290853.html According to that law teams never choose who kicks off. The team which wins the toss chooses which goal they will attack and the other team kicks off. If the toss up procedure is followed strictly according to the Laws then the losing toss team should always kick off. So in theory this bet should indeed be 50/50. However in practice the away side is much more likely to KO. Bookies know this and tempt you with prices above evens on what should be a 50/50 bet. Presumably they are not in the business of giving money away for nothing. There must be some reason why Law 8 is not being followed, even in high profile games. Before a kick-off at the start of the match or extra time •a coin is tossed and the team that wins the toss decides which goal it will attack in the first half of the match. •the other team takes the kick-off to start the match. •the team that wins the toss takes the kick-off to start the second half of the match. •in the second half of the match, the teams change ends and attack the opposite goals.
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Re: Kevin Pullien's "True Odds" http://www.xtranormal.com/watch/6066973/kenilworth-meets-kevin-pullein "I dont actually make money doing these bets, if I did I'd have to live in Zimbabwe. I get paid by the RP, the stupid readers back them anyway whatever the prices. The bookies clean up, everyone's a winner - well apart from the readers....."
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Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins English premier Season 2010-2011 - 191/380 favourites won = 50.3%. English premier Season 2009-2010 - 210/380 favourites won = 55.3% English premier Season 2008-2009 - 204/380 favourites won = 53.7% English premier Season 2011-2012 - 39/69 favourites won = 56.5%
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Re: Holy Grail Total Corners. End of days :-( http://forum.punterslounge.com/f22/spreadex-not-serious-firm-108507/ Spreadex - just as well the Muppet tips have stopped. They wouldn't have liked all these winning bets coming their way.
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Re: UEFA Champions League Final: FC Barcelona v Manchester United - Saturday 28th May
I checked again a moment ago. Money-Back Special If Barcelona win this match in normal time, Paddy Power will refund all losing 1st/Last Goalscorer, Correct Score and Scorecast singles on the match. Conditions. When you click the "Conditions" button it brings up a message which says the max refund is 100 pounds/euros per customer.50 is the max stake they will refund it states it in the terms and conditions.. Although if you did two 50 stakes in two seperate shops how are they to know. -
Re: UEFA Champions League Final: FC Barcelona v Manchester United - Saturday 28th May This PP offer of money back on a BARCA win is prob their most generous ever refund terms. Just going by current BARCA price of about 2.1 there over a 45% chance on losers refunded. This makes almost everything they offer favorable even if miles away from top price. I would have tried a £100 correct score this morning but they were restricting to £50 on phone - so I didn't bother. Will see if their shops take it live.
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Re: Profitable Betting Perhaps I am getting older and losing my edge but I think it is more difficult now to make profits than 10 years ago. Bookmakers used to just promote shop managers to be compilers - now they employ graduates. An experienced hunch on pricing wont be sufficient - you need to also understand the maths. After tax free was introduced in 2001 many new people started to think they might be able to make a profit. A new breed of smarter young punters meant that many long-standing price anomolies were extinguished. For example look at the old correct score coupons - you could get 9/1 on strong home favs eg Man U v Wigan to be 2-0. So although CS was superficially a terrible bet with large margins there were many nuggets of value if you had some sort of statto edge - most of these longstanding pricing errors have been corrected. And of course the rise of Betfair means that people can arbitrage away instantly any out of line prices. It's not all doom and gloom. There are people who still have ideas which can beat the book - Muppets corners for example, sample size suggests it cant just have been luck.
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Re: Lucky 15's 4 draws If you staked £1 per line = £15 on 4 draws at 3.25 each the profit if four came up would be £310.
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Re: Sounding's Goals Galore
I am going to try Burnley v Millwall - one or both DONT score at Paddy Power's 1/1.
Three goals - but none of them for Burnley. Maybe can take advantage of the miserable March weather and back teams to not score. Look at the hi-score hotshots which failed today, matches at Leeds, Peterboro, Northampton, Crewe.Burnley 0 Millwall 3 FT Robinson 52 , 71 Townsend 87 Attend: 14,589 Half-time: 0-0 -
Re: Sounding's Goals Galore Fred pay off each match at 1.8. So any double is 1.8*1.8 - times your stake per double. So a £1 successful double will return £3.24. So if you cover all the 21 possible doubles with £1 and only two are correct you will get £3.24 back - ie a loss of £17.76. If all 7 are correct then for your £21 stake you will get back £68.04. However you will be tortured by the fact you managed to find 7 successful selections and make such a miserable profit. £1285 returned if you had popped the £21 on the acca! My advice would be to pick your best 4 and cover in trebles and a fourfold. That way if one wrong you still make a small profit. ************ Having said all that I've found spotting both teams to score very difficult at the moment - I suppose it's the time of the season when goals go low. I am going to try Burnley v Millwall - one or both DONT score at Paddy Power's 1/1.
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Re: Sounding's Goals Galore
Yes it's difficult to find strong bets every week outside Blackpool, Peterboro, Crewe. So you cant really blame Fred for offering to hold their good prices - but only on the matches they choose. Will try Blackpool and more reluctantly Hartlepool at Fred's 9/4. The question would then be if the matches on the "good ones" still make a profit at the much shorter odds. Think you can get 8/13 the Blackpool/Accrington pair with B365 for about 2.62 return compared to 888's 2.5. Still a big gap to Fred's 3.25.I see Betfred have kept the Blackpool match on their coupon but you'd have to have a little luck to pick a second to pair it with after all the game pulls they've made :ok -
Re: Sounding's Goals Galore
******* Are you sure you got 5/2 the double here?Had enough of Fred taking games off his coupon so taking up 888's Goal Crazy coupon for tonight: Blackpool vs Spurs Accrington vs Crewe 5/2 @ 888Sport Stake: £20 -
Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works.
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Re: Short Priced Home Favourites 161 bets +17% yield I am trying to understand this system. B365 who are very experienced compilers price up something at 1.8 and instead of a strike rate of say 53% with an edge to them it performs at say 58%. Similarly for all odds in the system range. Why should that be? The sample size and yield is so high that it is difficult to argue otherwise but at the moment I cant see why this should continue to work. With all the normal caveats of respect for anyone who posts systems, it's always easier to pick holes than build something up etc - but having read all the posts I still cant understand why it works.
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Re: Football - Laying 'any other' score by halftime I make it about a 4.7% chance you get a HT unquoted in EP over the last 20 years. Lets say you remove all the star teams - in fact let's just remove every match with an odds on fav. It follows that a big fav could rack them up early so remove all of these. This reduces the chance of an unquoted to about 3.5%. However even with that more productive range of matches it's still a negative expectation bet. Just to break even you cannot offer bigger than 27. So unless there is a more incisive picking strategy it wont work long term at a price of 32 (on EP games). In fact if that 3.5% holds up on the supposedly unpromising matches (ie unlikely to go unquoted) then grabbing offers of 40 is a nice 33% edge even after BF tax. (assuming you have the patience to stick with a bet where you have a 96.5% chance of losing)
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Re: Total Corner spreads: is this the Holy Grail? 315 bets +24% yield What is even more surprising than SPIN cutting prices immediately is their failure to identify your selection system. You have already explained that you are just looking at historic corner counts and then applying your system on how to predict the next match played by these teams. Remarkable that these well paid full time professional compilers cannot apply themselves similarly to the data to revise their predictions and avoid you having any bets in the first place. Or is that they do not believe your bets are good but just that all their trade will be skewed in one direction by the posting of the tips. So they improve the terms on which they take the bets to the detriment of punters who still pile in after the suggested quote has moved.
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Re: Football ratings system
Yes, it probably is! There were 425 examples of matches where the home was 100 or more gooner points superior in the sample I used. If you mindlessly backed each at the football-data best price to return 100 - then your stakes were 30163 and it returned 31500. 4% edge just by spotting the number 100 and picking best price. How does it perform when you take it back to 2000. When you try and "improve" the bets by selecting the ones with a theory edge at the prices the return actually goes down. ********** Gooner himself uses previous rating gaps and the number of observed matches in that previous situation as a way of picking his most likely winners and theory edges. There is good discussion with gooner contributions here on how the numbers perform http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums/a/tpc/f/2486088531/m/376104405 ***********Is this a classic example of finding a ratings system that has a certain strike rate, then summising that if you bet at odds that suggest a team has a smaller %age chance of winning than the "profile" suggests, you'll find a profit. -
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Re: Football Laying Strategy How about BARI V AC Milan. Gooner edge is just 37 to the away. Bari 2.02 +0.5.
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Re: Football Laying Strategy Good luck Dep - have tried Bologna +0.5 at 2.07 PINN and will hold for straight away lay.
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Re: My Unders System Apart from the mad month of May - October has historically been the highest scoring month in UK football.
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Re: Euro 2012 > 8th - 9th October
That would indeed be a great bet but it is not an AH but a straight handicap ie you lose if the margin is home win by 2. The PP offer is the same as AH 1.5 but still might be quite an interesting bet. Azerbaijan are within a few points of their highest ever ELO rating - a large part of their jump was defeating the faltering Czechs at the end of last year, albeit in a friendly. Austria are obviously clear favourites but the most likely margin is just by 1. If the ratings are right it's about a 60% chance Azer dont lose by more than 1 - so that's worth an even money bet. You can get slightly better than the PP price by using Pinnacle's 2.06 on +1.5 AH.hey mustafa, i dont know much about azerbaijan football but i do know that austria arent the best attacking side...just wondering whats your opinion on an ajerbaijan plus 2 AH @ evens on paddypower
Confederations Cup 2013
in Other International Predictions
Posted
Re: Confederations Cup 2013 Fine win indeed and not bad for team no.22 in the FIFA rankings.....http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html Think they might need to adapt/scrap their formula.