[AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Score Predictor Port Adelaide 83 St.Kilda 77 Richmond 77 West Coast 106 Carlton 84 Brisbane 101 Sydney 103 Melbourne 77 Hawthorn 73 Western Bulldogs 87 Geelong 92 Kangaroos 71 Fremantle 84 Adelaide 81

The weather will definitely have an impact this weekend in Adelaide and Melbourne, and strange results wont be a major surprise. Port and St.Kilda always have terrific contests that are usually very close. This should be no exception, but the Saints do look suspect in defence and Tredrea is just about ready to fire up with Koschitzke expected to go back. Port to win this narrowly. Poor conditions should even up the Tigers-Eagles contest. It will be interesting to see how Wallace approaches this game. Will he adopt the game plan that derailed the Crows last year or play a 9 man defence or go head to head. The supply to Lynch, Wirrpanda and Hansen should be plentiful and an easy victory is on the cards. Brad Fisher is missing for Carlton. He is a key component in attack as injuries take hold at the Blues. If they lose a key defender in the next few weeks, they will become uncompetitive. The Lions were ordinary last week, and need to lift across the board to win this. Carlton’s team is significantly weakened since they last met in the NAB Cup Final, and this fact swings me to Brisbane. Sydney cannot put a better team on the ground whilst Melbourne are severely depleted. However, they do play well against the Swans and they will keep them honest for a while, but the Swans should pound them. Any other result, then the Swans are shaky. The Hawks-Bulldogs game looked the best game of the round until it was robbed of Williams, Jacobs and Young. Losing key players from all areas of the ground unbalances the team severely. The Dogs are close to full strength and if they can’t win this, they should pay the travel agents a visit on Monday and book their September holidays. Potentially nasty conditions has often undone Geelong at home in recent years. A small hiccup last week for the Cats, but they look to strong for the Roos. Bartel, Ling and Ablett will be impossible to stop and will eventually get on top of the Roos. The Dockers must win against Adelaide. Another loss at home would spell the end of their top 4 aspirations. Even though they won their first game last week, they have played reasonably well in all of their games so far. The return of Johnson in defence is a huge benefit and Pavlich and Tarrant are teaming well. The Crows can’t be faulted in recent weeks, but injuries are starting to take their toll.

Suggested Bets

BRISBANE Win WESTERN BULLDOGS Win/Line/Start FREMANTLE Margin 1-39

[AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)

A what? :unsure ...Williams out for the Hawks. Cross 'very likely' ...still hoping for that 1.60+ somewhere... Who the hell are half the players Melbourne have brought in??!! :lol

You better be quick TazaD, The Bulldogs price is in freefall. Williams and Jacobs confirmed withdrawls and at least 2 others in doubt for the Hawks. The Bulldogs will be $1.40 - $1.45 by game time and will have conditions to suit their smaller team. I heard about the Mark Williams injury yesterday, and jumped on the Dogs at $1.70 as well as the line and start. $1.60 might be hard to find now.

[AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) I’m just back from the M.C.G having witnessed my first Anzac Day clash in person. It had a tremendous atmosphere and I highly recommend anybody to go to one. I don’t support either team although you can’t help but get sucked in after the match starts, and I found myself on the Pies. The Bombers got off to a flyer, but after the Pies composed themselves, they never looked like losing. Their midfield controlled the match and Essendon paid no respect to the Shaws(more later). The skills in the first half were poor. The turnovers in the first half must have set a new world record. Luckily there was an improvement in the second half, but the Bombers were gradually falling off the pace. Tremendous effort by the Pies, they fully deserved their win and showed they are clearly superior to the Bombers. It is impossible to find an excuse for them. Essendon have issues above the shoulders. They think they are a top 8 team, but when the blowtorch is applied several players go missing. It was their flashier players keeping them in it, whilst the usual suspects go missing. Whilst there is no love lost with Pies, you just have to admire and respect them. Through adversity, they keep finding a way to get the job done. Perhaps a few Victorian teams can take a leaf out of their book. Now to the important stuff. My game score bet missed by a point. I gave up on it at three quarter time, but to hover around the margin for the final 8 minutes with no goal being scored was unlucky. You don’t have to be dead to be stiff.

My chances to win the Anzac Medal are Mark McVeigh' date=' Adam McPhee and Heath Shaw. :cheers

Suggested Bet

TOTAL GAME SCORE : 175-194 :@

On the bright side, thank you to Kevin Sheedy for letting Heath Shaw do as he wished for the first three quarters. The Anzac Day medal was done and dusted by then. He dominated the game and helped subdue Lucas in the final term to wrap it up.I had a unit on each of my selections so tonight I’m heading out my friends. I'll have one for each of you. Catch you on Friday.

[AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Score Predictor

Essendon 97 Collingwood 78

Plenty of late changes expected which makes it tough to tip with confidence. If Fletcher misses for Essendon, the pendulum almost swings to Collingwood. If Thomas or Prestigiacomo misses, Collingwood are in strife. I’m selecting Essendon on the strength that their forward setup looks difficult for Collingwood to match up on. Collingwood have a slight edge in the midfield but the Bombers have shown they don’t need to dominate in the middle to give the forwards enough opportunities to kick a winning score. My chances to win the Anzac Medal are Mark McVeigh, Adam McPhee and Heath Shaw.

Suggested Bet

TOTAL GAME SCORE : 175-194

[AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Just when you thought the brand of football was improving, reality set in this week with an awful lot of crap dished up for the viewers this weekend. From my perspective, the two best matches were played in the worst conditions. The Collingwood-Port clash was played the way football should be played. The weather made it tough and they both rose to the occasion. Collingwood ran out of numbers in the end and should hold their heads up. The match at Launceston today was terrific between two very committed teams that both deserved to win. Whilst the conversion of both teams wasn’t great, they both gave it everything they had and it was the Hawks that were fortunate enough to be in front at the siren. Into the bin you can throw that match at AAMI. Just stick them into a cage and let them fight to the death. Are there any vacancies in the Super 14 next season? I have two candidates ready to go. That was rubbish last night, but it was exactly what we expected. Injuries are weighing a lot of teams down and it’s now affecting the results of games. An average team with a small injury list could cause some damage in September. Having said that, a non-Victorian premier looks certain again this season. They look heads and shoulders above the Victorian threats. On the punting side, I’m showing a small loss for the weekend. The Sandilands goal for Fremantle in the dying stages cost me a profit. Oh well, I got a good run for my money anyhow. So after 4 weeks of the season, I think it’s time to take stock and evaluate how well we are doing on the punt so far. I’m running at a slight loss but have recovered from a poor Round 1. I’ll detail how I’m going, but I think everyone should assess how they are going so far, and how they are measuring up against one another. Let’s hope the standard of footy improves next week, because this week was average. I’m looking forward to the Anzac Day game as well as the Dockers-Crows clash. See you next week.

AFL Rounds 1-4

Bets : 18 Winners : 8 Outlay : 18 units Return : 16.15 units Loss : 1.85 units

[AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Score Predictor Hawthorn 73 Geelong 84 Melbourne 64 Fremantle 83 West Coast 105 Carlton 84 A tough Saturday for punters with teams starting to show their true colours now. It appears the Saints will be one of real yo-yo teams of 2007. Good one week, rubbish the next. From quarter time onwards, they were never going to win and full credit to the Bombers. The bubble has well and truly burst in Brisbane. Their own game style has come back to bite them in the backside. Conversion for the Kangaroos is hurting them big time. They fully deserved their win tonight and if they can improve their effeciency they are capable of winning 9 or 10 games. They could easily have 3 at the moment. I listened to talkback on Friday night hearing the Bulldogs fans falling over themselves with praise for their effort against the Tigers. Let me say they have a long way to go. The Tigers continually butcher the ball yet still had a chance with 15 minutes to go. The Dogs won 6 of 8 against the bottom 6 last year, with 4 of those victories in the balance until the last 5 minutes. Let's see if they can take a decent scalp in the near future before I start paying them any respect. Fremantle and West Coast should have comfortable wins to complete the round, but the game in Launceston is up for grabs. Geelong are a better team, but the Hawks always manage to derail them. It should be a great game, but it will be scrappy. Suggested Bets FREMANTLE Margin 1-39 WEST COAST Points -34.5 Best of luck.

[AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 4 (April 22nd - 24th) Score Predictor

Richmond 82 Western Bulldogs 94 Collingwood 100 Port Adelaide 91 St.Kilda 88 Essendon 107 Kangaroos 78 Brisbane 95 Adelaide 72 Sydney 83

A terrific round of matches with plenty of value on offer and a few upsets on the cards as well. Richmond are ready to take a big scalp whether it be this week or next week against the Eagles. Their inability to play out a full game has me leaning to the Dogs. Big Richo is the key and if he can be subdued by Harris the Dogs are half way home. The Dogs speed of ball movement is no longer fearsome as just about every team can play or counter that style. The Dogs are a 5 goal worse team at the MCG compared to the Dome but should hold off the Tigers. The Collingwood-Port game is 50/50. Port play well in Melbourne, but Brogan’s loss will be felt. The Pies just keep grinding out the wins and with Clement (and possibly Johnson) back, they should hang on. The Bombers midfield let them down last week and will find themselves under more pressure against the Saints. Mal Michael was horribly exposed last week, and facing either Riewoldt or Koschitzke this week, perhaps retirement was the correct option. The addition of Ball to the Saints midfield gives them the edge. The Kangaroos were coached horribly last week and Laidley faces the master this week. Jon Brown will have a night out and the misery will continue for the Gold Coast Roos. The match at AAMI will be a carbon copy of any Sydney-WestCoast game of the last few years. It will resemble a rugby match for much of the night. Perhaps the injury factor against Adelaide will swing the game the Sydney’s way, but it should be a head bobbing finish.

Suggeted Bets

WESTERN BULLDOGS Margin 1-39 COLLINGWOOD Win BRISBANE Line -18.5

[AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)

Predicted Scores Collingwood 95 Richmond 91 :D 115-90 Carlton 85 Essendon 102 :\ 125-122 Port Adelaide 90 Adelaide 89:\ 63-87 St.Kilda 83 Western Bulldogs 100 :$ 116-66 Fremantle 85 West Coast 88 :D 70-101

Suggested Bet

ESSENDON/WESTERN BULLDOGS Double. :wall

Got sucked in by the Bombers. I know better now. Crows are still top shelf and a definite threat to the Eagles. The Bulldogs have been exposed and September is becoming more and more distant.

Score Predictor Sydney 94 Brisbane 71 :nana 96-69 (That was close) Melbourne 78 Geelong 90 :D 57-109 Kangaroos 84 Hawthorn 91:nana 70-91 Suggested Bet Sydney -20.5 :cheers

Had to sweat on the Swans until the very end, but missed my double.

In the spirit of long shots.... I have placed the following for todays games 6/10 on Hawthorn win (1.65)/ Geelong Over 15.5 (1.72)/ Syd-Bris Either under 15.5 (3.30) @ 9.37 (Sportingbet Aus).....:hope :hope :hope

Hard luck MaKDaddY. The Swans match looked good until the last 5 minutes. Keep up the good work. I hope you took them individually as well. This weekend could have been a car wreck, but a small profit is better than a kick in the nuts.

[AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Score Predictor Sydney 94 Brisbane 71 Melbourne 78 Geelong 90 Kangaroos 84 Hawthorn 91 It's been a difficult round so far but today looks a little more clear cut. The Brisbane bubble will burst today. Playing the style they have so far plays right into Sydney's hands and at home a comfortable win for the Swans. The Demons are injury-ravaged and although they will be competitive I expect Geelong to hold on. The Kangaroos have a great record at the Dome against the Hawks. The injury toll is on the rise at Waverley with Trent Croad expected to miss.The small Kangaroos forward line will cause Hawthorn problems because the Hawks have no leg speed in the team at all for this game. Suggested Bet Sydney -20.5

[AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 3 (April 13 - 15) Predicted Scores

Collingwood 95 Richmond 91 Carlton 85 Essendon 102 Port Adelaide 90 Adelaide 89 St.Kilda 83 Western Bulldogs 100 Fremantle 85 West Coast 88

Good luck trying to make a dollar this weekend. It certainly looks no easy task. Tonight’s game is a mystery. Both are below strength with Simmonds well short of a gallop for the Tigers, if he even plays. Collingwood’s preparation isn’t the best and playing 3 first gamers is a worry.

Essendon look the goods against Carlton, but I can’t get their clash 8 weeks ago out of my head. They are both fielding almost identical line-ups and surely Carlton can be forgiven for one poor performance. Although with a full list getting thrashed by 13 goals against an average team is a worry. When was the last time they got close to Geelong?

The Adelaide and Perth rivalries are must watch games and are hard to pick. It is interesting to note that Port have not scored 100+ against the Crows in 11 attempts although they have still won their fair share of games. The Perth game is up for grabs although I was more impressed with the Dockers than the Eagles last week.

The Saints have a good recent record against the Dogs, but with the hardness of Ball still missing, the Dogs should run them ragged and hold the Saints comfortably.

Suggested Bet

ESSENDON/WESTERN BULLDOGS Double.

Good luck everyone. We are going to need it this weekend.

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Score Predictor Richmond 80 Sydney 95 Geelong 86 Carlton 91 West Coast 95 Collingwood 78 Port Adelaide 94 Kangaroos 81 Essendon 105 Fremantle 94 Western Bulldogs 98 Adelaide 85 Suggested Bets SYDNEY 1-39 Swans forward line looks too potent for the Tigers' ordinary back line. Richmond's small brigade will cause headaches at times throughout the match and will keep the Swans honest. COLLINGWOOD + 33.5 I can't see the Eagles kicking a big score against a decent defence. Collingwood's midfield is under-rated and their forward line should be able to manage at least 11 goals. ESSENDON WIN The Bombers looked great last week and just need to match that performance to pick up the win. The Dockers only beat poor teams at the Dome and have never beat the Bombers there. Good luck.

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Score Predictor : Brisbane 83 St.Kilda 92 Suggested Bet : Brisbane +12.5 All the best

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 2 (Thu 5 Apr - Mon 9 Apr) Great work ads25 and I'm looking forward to the additional stats as the season progresses. I wonder whether a formguide ladder of every teams last 5 games would be of benefit in trying to pick some winners. Just a suggestion that I wouldn't mind your thoughts on. I know your hard work will be rewarded and we all appreciate your efforts. Getting on to this week's round and I hope people jumped on the $2.10 for Essendon to defeat Fremantle on Sunday that was on offer yesterday. The Bombers are at full strength whilst the Dockers are missing top players from all areas of the ground. Keep in mind that the Dockers have never beaten Essendon at Telstra Dome in 6 attempts. Essendon will start favourite by the first bounce.

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr) It might be a tough season on the punt if round 1 is any indication. I thought the NRL was tough. My footy tipping was fair getting 4 winners over the line, but my suggested tips bombed, big time. One payout out of seven was alarming to say the least and looking at next weeks fixture it ain't going to get any easier. Thumbs up: Fremantle v Port Adelaide (the way footy should be played) Essendon (huge away victory) Carlton (never say die attitude) Brad Johnson (only Judd and J.Brown ahead of him) Thumbs down: Hawthorn (wooden spoon contender) Kangaroos (forgotten how to win) Lance Whitnall (has never played worse)

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr) ADEAIDE 117 v ESSENDON 88 Bombers have a shocking recent record at AAMI Stadium. Spine looks strong for Essendon, but their on-ball brigade look vulnerable against a great midfield although the Bombers have injected more speed into their team. Adelaide’s forward line is slightly weakened without McGregor and Hentschel, but should still get plenty of supply. Bombers will be competitive but Adelaide should get home.

Suggested bet: Adelaide 1-39

WESTERN BULLDOGS 96 v GEELONG 90 Two evenly matched teams with two 1 point results in these fixtures last year. The Bulldogs will be stretched in defence without Harris and could be exposed by Ablett and Ottens. King missing for the Cats is also a big blow. Great contrast in the midfield with the speed and accuracy of the Dogs against the hard working and big-bodied Cats on-ballers. Should be a terrific contest that is tough to call.

CARLTON 89 v RICHMOND 93 A very difficult match to assess. The Tigers have been off the radar since being pumped in the NAB Cup. The loss of Simmonds and Brown will hurt, but their young talent proved themselves over and over last year and beat Carlton twice as well. Terry Wallace will have picked Carlton’s game plan apart and will have plans in place to stop them from kicking a winning score. The Blues have been buoyed by recent events, but the real stuff starts today. The Tigers must lock down on Stevens and Murphy with the midfield battle to determine the result. I just think the Tigers will sneak home. The showed last year they can win without their stars.

Suggested bet: Richmond WIN

All the best.

[Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr)]

Re: Australian Rules Football AFL - Round 1 (30 Mar - 1 Apr) You can tell the footy season starts today just by looking out the window. It’s cool, windy and the rain is about to hit. Seeing we had a bit of success in the NAB Cup, we’ll apply a similar system to the home & away season. The personnel a team puts out on the ground each week is a key factor determining a result. You must also factor in how teams perform against one another, how they perform at the venue, how their current form is, their long-term performance and weather conditions. So we throw all this information into the blender and come up with the following scores.

MELBOURNE 88 v ST.KILDA 81 Similar conditions tonight as last year’s Elimination Final. Melbourne lost only one game out 12 at the venue last year. Riewoldt missing for St.Kilda is a huge loss. Both teams weakened defensively, but shouldn’t be a huge factor on a night like tonight. Midfield battle will determine result. I just feel Melbourne’s on ball brigade is more precise with the ball under pressure.

Suggested bets: MELBOURNE win, MELBOURNE winning margin 1-39

KANGAROOS 81 v COLLINGWOOD 109 With Thompson missing, the Kangaroos will play with a smaller forward set-up which shouldn’t pose to many problems for the Magpies. Both teams on-ballers are only average with both teams employing tagging tactics. Rocca normally dominates battling full-backs and should kick plenty. Both fielding weakened teams from last year’s contest. Collingwood should win, but I’ll just be watching this one.

FREMANTLE 105 v PORT ADELAIDE 81 Port Adelaide might find scoring difficult with Tredrea and Mahoney missing. On-ballers must contribute heavily. Port’s midfielders are quick and will cause Freo problems at some stage. The injection of Solomon and Tarrant doesn’t necessarily strengthen the Fremantle team. Farmer and Johnson will be missed by Fremantle. Port Adelaide recent scoring at Subiaco averages 62 points in their last 3 games there. Fremantle look to strong in this, but I’ll look on with interest.

BRISBANE 90 v HAWTHORN 80 Hawthorn’s winning record in Brisbane is woeful, and won’t be helped with Crawford, Brown and Dixon missing. Hawthorn’s only chance of winning this game is to get of to a flying start, hold a 5 or 6 goal lead at half-time and try and hold on. They cannot play 4 quarters with the 3^rd being the question mark. The loss of Bradshaw won’t be felt as much against Hawthorn with Brown’s presence looming large. He kicked 8 last year against the Hawks on Smith and Campbell and should do the same again against Croad and Jacobs. Brisbane should win at home, but the Hawks will be awkward to handle.

Suggested bets: BRISBANE win SYDNEY 94 v WEST COAST 72 Swans look more advanced this season compared to last and have only Schneider missing. Their hard working midfield will welcome Cousins and Fletcher missing, with the Goodes-Judd duel the highlight once more. The West Coast forward line doesn’t look potent without Hansen in the team. Cox has dominated Everitt in recent times. West Coast haven’t won in Sydney this century. Swans to win in another battle of the heavyweights.

Suggested bets: SYDNEY win, SYDNEY winning margin 1-39. All the best.

[AFL Football - NAB Cup FINAL - Carlton vs Brisbane (Mar. 17th)]

Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup FINAL - Carlton vs Brisbane (Mar. 17th) “It’s only the” NAB Cup Grand Final Carlton (Price: $1.82, Rating: 418) v Brisbane (Price: $2.00, Rating: 516)

The Blues once again are at full strength, with Kennedy named after withdrawing late last week. That was a powerful finish by the Blues last week to qualify with their midfield dominating in the last 40 minutes. The Lions travel once more and are re-introducing players desperately short of a gallop including Brown and Bradshaw. If they both play, they will be a headache for Carlton’s defence although Fevola will be a handful for Brisbane. Lance Whitnall hasn’t fired a shot so far, and needs to produce something resembling decent form on Saturday for Carlton to win. Carlton’s defence has held up well not conceding huge scores whilst Brisbane’s midfield has been superb. I get the feeling this match means more for Carlton than Brisbane who don’t have a great record in pre-season Grand Finals. Who could forget that woeful effort against Port a few years back when they scored 3 goals for the match. It looks like more silverware for PrincesPark as Carlton will beat Brisbane by 4 goals plus.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Geelong (Rating:487, Price:1.25) v Brisbane (Rating:544, Price:4.00)

The Cats are without Ottens and Harley but regain Chapman for tonight’s clash at the Dome. Their midfield is at full strength and defensively, missing Harley wont be a huge loss against a smallish Brisbane attack. The Lions are still missing their key forwards and ruckman Jamie Charman is in doubt. A third straight week of travel will inevitably take an it's toll, and a blow-out is not out of the question. The Cats to progress, but that price is too short to take.

Kangaroos (Rating:456, Price:1.60) v Carlton (Rating:424, Price:2.32)

The Kangaroos are missing Rawlings and Hale for this match with Carlton going in at full strength again. The Blues will need to re-jig their defence with the Kangaroos using a small forward line except for Thompson. A very even match-up and another close game for the Blues, but at full strength, they should prevail.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) What did we learn from the weekend. Anyone who took the $1.17 about the Bulldogs on Friday night should either give up the punt or do some homework. What were you thinking?

Congratulations to Brisbane coach Leigh Matthews and Kangaroos coach Dean Laidley for slamming the AFL on their fixturing of the semi-finals. Common sense needed to prevail and allow Brisbane to play a semi in Brisbane or Gold Coast. Laidley also spoke out saying it was illogical to play 2 Melbourne based clubs outside Melbourne.

Hawthorn’s coaching staff out-thought themselves thinking that by handballing the footy all the way down to the half forward line and hoping to find a target inside 50 would win them a game.

Carlton and Hawthorn will win 12-14 matches between them this season. Neither a threat for the finals this season.

People love a contest, regardless of conditions. Anybody who watched extra time between the Cats and the Power witnessed something they will never forget. Don’t tell me they weren’t serious about winning. What a bizarre finale. You couldn’t script that if you tried a thousand times.

Fremantle will always struggle away from home.

Dennis Cometti should commentate games on Channel 7 by himself. McAvaney has lost it, and Watson, Schwarz and Olarenshaw are a waste of space. It really is a dull coverage with Dennis doing his best to inject some life into it.

Semi-Finals

Geelong v Brisbane Telstra Dome, Melbourne – Friday night Kangaroos v CarltonCarrara, Gold Coast – Saturday night

A little boast about the pre-season cup ratings system we’ve used over the last few weeks. So far the ratings have thrown up 11 winners out of 12 games. We’d have the perfect record if it wasn’t for Chad Cornes.

Th

e cardinal rule in the pre-season cup is to bet on teams that are at full or close to strength. You had to pick Carlton to beat Hawthorn because the Hawks were without 7 best team players and the Blues were full strength. Carlton didn’t need to draw on inexperienced players like the Hawks did and it counted in the end.

So, another profitable pre-season cup campaign for me so far. I’m considering putting the cue in the rack. Only 3 games remaining and the value is unlikely to be there for the finals. Geelong should handle Brisbane with the other game to close to call at this stage.

Good luck to you all.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) The quarter-finals of the NAB Cup have served up some lob-sided matches at first glance, but looking at the strength of the some squads, the short prices on offer look unwarranted. The ratings and prices are underlined below.

Western Bulldogs (599) $1.20 v Brisbane (569) $4.50

The Dogs did what they had to last week, but are significantly weakened for this game at Telstra Dome. They have only 2 of their 8 best players in this squad losing Johnson, Griffen and Akermanis due to injury. Brisbane are still missing key forwards Brown and Bradshaw, but have maintained a similar squad to last week. They are coming of a 6 day break and will be leg weary after the conditions they played in last week. This will be no cakewalk for the Bulldogs, but should win a close one at home.

Hawthorn (530) $1.45 v Carlton (436) $2.55

This is the match of the weekend. Both teams are going all out to perform well in this tournament with both impressing last weekend. The Hawks have been weakened losing small defenders Brown and Ladson and have no important players returning with 7 of their best 22 missing. The Blues are still at full strength and have no excuses for not winning this game. The ratings suggests a Carlton win, but the Hawks have a 75% winning strike rate in Launceston.

Geelong (523) $1.82 v Port Adelaide(489) $1.97

This is an even match-up between two teams used to March glory in recent times. The Cats played well last week and have basically the same squad this week. Port Adelaide have 4 of their best 22 missing and were terrific last week. Port Adelaide have a superb record in Darwin and that gives them the edge in this game.

Kangaroos (470) $3.00 v Fremantle (474) $1.38

The Roos have lost ruckman Hale for this game but still have a strong line-up. The Dockers have Parker and Black missing from their best team. A huge incentive for the Dockers is that if they win this game they will host a semi-final at home. Their squad is far superior to the Kangaroos and should win even though they have to travel to Melbourne.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) An interstesting weekend of football comes to an end and a great outcome to the ratings system. I wouldn’t have dreamt we’d get a clean sweep, but we were pretty fortunate in a few games, particularly the game in Cairns.

Assessing the matches, the derby in Adelaide was clearly the match of the round. The midfield of Port Adelaide is going to cause teams some headaches throughout the year and when Tredrea returns, will threaten for a finals spot. The Crows looked comfortable and will be a major threat once more.

The Kangaroos predictably dismantled Collingwood and unearthed a few good prospects for the future, but still look a long way from being a finals contender. The Magpies clearly weren’t interested, but the wraps placed on Tarrant’s replacement Sean Rusling look a little misplaced. He did nothing playing on an opponent who in only a VFL standard player.

The Bulldogs had to fight hard to beat the Swans in Canberra, both teams showed great signs and will play finals this season.

The warning signs are already ringing at Essendon. With only 3 best team players out, they were disappointing against a full strength Carlton, but had plenty of opportunities to win. Essendon’s disposal is a real worry, and they only looked good when the speedsters took control in the second half. Carlton’s structure looks sound and are capable of winning this tournament, but with a trip to Tasmania and possibly Perth, it looks unlikely.

Brisbane fought back bravely to beat the Saints in Cairns in driving rain. They looked shot to bits at quarter time, but their experienced players brought them back from the dead to beat the youthful Saints. Too hard to assess anything from this game.

The Cats did as expected against a Tigers team that lacked height. The bigger bodies of Geelong held them in good stead and a final appearance doesn’t look out of the question. The Tigers are an unknown quantity and could easily finish from 6^th to 16^th.

Melbourne v Hawthorn was clearly the second best match of the round. The Demons ran out of legs in the final quarter and with the injection of their best midfielders, should be one of the teams to beat. The Hawks played well as a whole, but are still prone to form lapses within matches. However, they have players that can turn matches and that makes them dangerous.

The Perth derby was disappointing with Dockers gradually gaining control of the match and not giving the Eagles a sniff. A big year for the Dockers looks assured, but a step in the wrong direction will mean big changes. The Eagles still look strong, but aren’t a great team by any means and will be under the pump all season.

So, the quarter-finals of the NAB Cup look like this:

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane (Telstra Dome, Melbourne)

Hawthorn v Carlton (Launceston)

Geelong v Port Adelaide (Darwin)

Kangaroos v Fremantle (Telstra Dome, Melbourne)

The Bulldogs and Fremantle look the teams to beat.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Western Bulldogs (546) v Sydney (633)

Bulldogs coach Rodney Eade has named a stronger squad than expected, with Cooney, Darcy, Grant and Murphy the key players missing. The Swans have named a weakened line-up with 13 of their best 22 out including Hall, Barry, O’Loughlin and Everitt out. A comfortable win to the Bulldogs is on the cards.

Carlton (426) v Essendon (477)

Carlton are at full strength and have no injuries. The Bombers have only McPhee and M.Johnson missing and it looks as though both side mean business. I fancy the Bombers in a close one.

Brisbane (552) v St.Kilda (664) The Lions have named a good squad for their visit to Cairns. Only Brown, Bradshaw and Lappin are the key players missing, so scoring could be an issue. The Saints have left their best 8 players at home with all areas of the ground being affected. They’ll give their kids a chance and hope for the best. Anything could happen in this match.

Geelong (509) v Richmond (559)

Both teams have named strong squads with very few rookies picked. The Cats are very experienced with Chapman the only star missing. Richmond have a few tall players injured and could be exposed in that area although their speed will trouble Geelong. I think the Cats will sneak home at home.

Hawthorn (489) v Melbourne (552)

The Hawks have named a strong squad with Croad, Smith, Dixon and Jacobs missing. The defence still looks a problem and will be stretched against the Demons. Melbourne will have a re-vamped midfield for this game with White, Johnstone, McLean and Davey missing but their forward line looks potent. Melbourne still should win, but it wont be easy.

Fremantle (490) v West Coast (499) A very even match-up with both teams looking strong. The Dockers have Bell and Parker out whilst the West Coast have Judd and Embley missing. The Dockers recent good record over the Eagles gives them the edge.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) Adelaide v Port Adelaide The Crows have named a good squad naming 15 of their best 22. Key players missing include Riccuito, Burton, Johncock and Pirrie. Adelaide ranking 551. Port have named a strong squad naming 19 of their best 22, with Tredrea the only major omission. Port Adelaide ranking 466. Adelaide likely to start favourite, but Port look the goods. Kangaroos v Collingwood If there is one team in it to win it, it is the Kangaroos. They have named 19 of their best 22, with Archer being rested. They have a very experienced line-up and should win comfortably. Kangaroos ranking is 458. Coliingwood are headed up to the Gold Coast for a holiday. They've named half their best team, but 11 of their best 17 left at home. Main aim obviously is to give the kids a go. Collingwood rating is 617. Port and Kangaroos for me on Friday night, with Port hopefully an underdog.

[AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17)]

Re: AFL Pre-Season Cup - (Feb 23 - Mar 17) G'Day everyone. Over the last few years, I've found the NAB Cup a good place to make some cash and get some winners at some juicy odds. Hopefully, the 2007 version will be no different. What I do each year before the season starts is to rank every player in each team from 1 (being the best) to 29, with the remaining players on the list each ranked 30. By adding up each player in a team, you can estimate the team's strength before a match starts. With the squads being named gradually over the next few days, we should be able to tell what teams are treating the tournament seriously and which teams are giving their youngsters a go. With my lists, I can give an accurate assessment of which teams are leaving their gun players on the sidelines for an extra few weeks. With squads of 28 being named of which 24 will play, I have ranked every player in each squad and added them together. The lower the final figure, the stronger a team is. For example, if a team played their best possible team, the final figure would be 403. If a team played their worst possible team, the final figure would be 669.

[Tennis, Mens Australian Open 2007 - Men]

Re: Tennis, Mens Australian Open 2007 - Men Play has just commenced on the outside courts, with the continuation of the schedule when new matches were postponed due to heat. It is still 35 degrees and still a possibility of a thunderstorm in a couple of hours. Tomorrow expected to be 37 degrees with more interuptions likely.