[AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) The Run Home

The final ten weeks of the regular season should provide plenty of twists and turns. Some will fall by the wayside and some will launch a late challenge. There are still twelve teams in the race and I’ve checked their fixtures to see how difficult their run home is. Some have it good, others have an uphill battle.

ADELAIDE - Have 6 home games remaining, with 5 against finals contenders. - Could cement themselves in the top 4 in the next 4 weeks. - Can afford to drop 1 home game, but must win at least 1 game away from home. # I think they will win 7 out 10 and finish with 14 wins.

BRISBANE - Have 6 home games remaining. - There 4 away games are against the top 4 teams. - Can put the skids under Port, Kangaroos and Sydney’s finals assault. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 8.5 wins.

CARLTON - Have 4 interstate trips in the last 10 rounds, with 3 in the next 4 weeks. - Don’t play a team in the top 8 in the next 5 weeks. - Can put the skids under Collingwood, Essendon and the Kangaroos finals assault. # I think they will win 2 out of 10 and finish with 6 wins.

COLLINGWOOD - Play 8 games at the MCG and 2 at Telstra Dome, with no more travel. - Next 4 weeks hold the key, must win at least 2 to challenge for a top 4 finish. - Play the bottom 5 teams in the run home. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 14 wins.

ESSENDON - Have 2 more interstate trips, both to Perth in August. - Must win 2 of the next 3 at Telstra Dome to be a finals chance. (Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs) - Play 7 out of 10 against finals contenders. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 12 wins.

FREMANTLE - Have 6 home games remaining, including Essendon, Geelong and West Coast. - Have 2 trips to Adelaide and must win at least 1. - Biggest test between rounds 16-20. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 12 wins.

GEELONG - Have 4 winnable games at home. - Have 2 winnable interstate games against Fremantle and Brisbane. -Have a tricky month ahead, but should finish strongly. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 16 wins.

HAWTHORN - Have 4 interstate trips ahead including 2 in Launceston. - Would need to win 2 of the next 4 to entertain a top 4 finish. - A tough finish to the season playing Port, Bulldogs and Sydney. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

KANGAROOS - Have 3 interstate trips remaining in the space of 4 weeks between rounds 15-18. - Play the bottom 4 teams in the run home. - Final 4 games at Telstra Dome including 3 against finals contenders. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

MELBOURNE - Have 4 interstate trips including 3 against finals contenders. - Only play 4 of the top 8 teams and none of the top 3. - Can put the skids under Sydney, Collingwood and the Bulldogs finals chances. # I think they will win 2 out of 10 and finish with 4 wins.

PORT ADELAIDE - Have 5 home games remaining including 3 against finals contenders. Play 4 out of 5 at home between rounds 15-19. - Have away games against Geelong, Hawthorn and the Bulldogs. - Play against 4 of the top 5. # I think they will win 4 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

RICHMOND - Have 5 games left at the MCG, and travel interstate twice. - Play 6 of the top 8 and none of the bottom 4 teams. - Can upset plenty of teams finals chances, and play St.Kilda twice. # I think they will win 3 out of 10 and finish with 4.5 wins.

ST.KILDA - Have 7 games left at the Dome, and only travel to Sydney in the run home. - Play 5 of the top 8 teams. - Must start stringing wins together from now to make the finals. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 11 wins.

SYDNEY - Have 5 home games remaining, but only 1 against a top 8 team. Must win them all to secure a finals spot. - Play only 4 of the top 8 teams. - Best chance to make finals is to win their last 6 games that are winnable and not a lot of travel. # I think they will win 7 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

WESTCOAST - Have 5 home games and can’t afford to lose one if they are to make the top 4. - Travel to Adelaide twice and Telstra Dome 3 times and need to win twice. - Play only 4 of the top 8 teams. # I think they will win 5 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

WESTERN BULLDOGS - Have 8 games at Telstra Dome and travel to Adelaide. - Play 6 out of the top 8 teams and the Kangaroos twice. - Only play 1 of the bottom 4. # I think they will win 6 out of 10 and finish with 13 wins.

The Big Questions

Are Adelaide slowly building to a premiership similar to 1997-8? If Nathan Buckley returns, can he only play as a forward? If Hird gets injured, are Essendon finished? Which two players can Geelong least afford to lose in their premiership chase? Will the Hawks start to struggle as the season goes on? Do the Kangaroos have enough good players to make the finals? Do Port have the backline to stand up in a finals series? Will injuries derail St.Kilda’s finals assault? Has age caught up with Sydney? Can the Bulldogs find another gear in September? Do the Eagles have the hunger to win it again?

My Final Ladder

16 – Geelong

14 – Adelaide, Collingwood

13 – West Coast, Hawthorn, Sydney, Western Bulldogs

12 – Essendon, Fremantle 11 – Port Adelaide, Kangaroos, St.Kilda 8.5 – Brisbane 6 – Carlton 4.5 – Richmond 4 – Melbourne

Let the battle begin.

[AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22)]

Re: AFL Round 12 (Week 2 - Fri June 20 - Sun June 22) A few topics have been raised in the last few days in this forum that are worthy of some comment and debate. The wooden spoon/tanking/draft picks discussion has been interesting. It was clear that teams who thought their finals chances were dashed would throw in the towel and give up on the season chasing the priority draft picks. Teams that tanked would be teams either hit hard with injury rendering them uncompetitive or teams that had made mistakes with their playing list or their recruiting. The best example of tanking in recent times was Collingwood in 2005. They lost Rocca and Buckley and were two games out of the eight come round 14. They took the decision to play kids and didn’t win another game after chalking up their fifth win. That gave them picks 2 and 5 in the draft. The system has changed now and if Collingwood did the same nowadays in the same circumstances they would receive picks 2 and 18. You are not rewarded as heavily as you were previously. Other notable tankers in recent times include Richmond in 2004 (no win after round 8) and Carlton in 2003 (no win after round 11). Some of the best laughs I get on the internet is on the Carlton forums. The supporters were talking finals before the Hawthorn game and then got their regular reality check. They expect way too much with talent they have. 8 wins will be a good result, but still have 4 interstate trips. I might as well way in to the newspaper debate. The reason why the Herald-Sun has so many pages to fill is because they either make it up or beat it up. The Age sports liftout is brilliant. There are plenty of news worthy stories, the best analysis, great features and more in depth. The Herald-Sun aims at the lowest common denominator and is proud of it. Onto the weekend, and there are slim pickings from a punting point of view. Tonight’s game at the MCG doesn’t interest me in the least. Melbourne should win but the doubt on Neitz throws a cloud on the match. There are light showers about with no breeze. Sydney has the ammunition to handle Collingwood. The Swans cannot be dropping anymore home games if they are serious about a top 4 finish. Even with average supply from the midfield, the Swans should kick 100 points against the Magpies defence severely undermanned. A tough month ahead for the Magpies and will need to look elsewhere for a victory. West Coast will have their regulation home victory over the Saints. The Saints don’t score too well on the road and the Eagles have the defence to put the clamps on Riewoldt and Koschitzke. The Eagles have an average attack and should make a big play for Fevola or Franklin. Lynch doesn’t have the consistency to be their key forward.

Score Predictor & My Tips

Richmond 69 Melbourne76 Sydney 94 Collingwood 88 West Coast 113 St.Kilda 59

Suggested Bet

SYDNEY Margin 1-39

Have a good weekend.

[AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Key Points- Port Adelaide v Essendon

- Port midfield clearly superior to Essendon’s, but have been below par recently. - Port has won 8 out of 9 against Essendon. - Essendon haven’t beaten Port at AAMI since 2000. - Tredrea’s 200^th game for Port must inspire their leaders to take the game on. - Essendon average 71 points at AAMI (last 4 games) - Port average 87 points at AAMI (last 4 games) - Game more likely to be played on Port’s terms. - Essendon aren’t suited to the bigger grounds or poor weather conditions. - Essendon don’t bury teams when in winning positions. - Port must keep winning their home games to stay in contention.

[AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) MERRY CHRISTMAS EVERYBODY !

I love it when the bookies fall in love with the outsider when the favourite loses a key player. I couldn’t believe my eyes to see the Hawks drift from $1.62 to $1.91 on the back of the Franklin withdrawl. Carlton had only beaten a Bulldogs team that is allergic to body contact and a Port Adelaide team that is in its worst form slump for years. Yet they started favourite against a team that has beaten every team around them bar Sydney. Remembering that in Hawthorn's last 3 wins, Franklin has kicked 3 goals in total.

Taking into consideration Carlton concedes 100+ per game and the way Hawthorn setup defensively, Carlton were always going to battle to score 100.

I’ve been watching football for nearly 30 years and Carlton has the worst defence I have every seen including Fitzroy of the mid 90’s and the Demons of the early 80’s. I think cardboard cut outs would have been more effective last night against an average forward line. Bret Thornton looks like he is going through the motions with that nice big contract in his back pocket. Saddington and Bannister are useless, O’hailpin is being misused and giving Cain Ackland a three year contract was a serious error in judgement. Watching Koutoufides run around last night was sad. His career is just fizzling out unlike Hird, Archer and Harvey.

I was surprised by the amount of empty seats at the game last night considering it broke the AFL record. Level 2 was 3 quarters full, behind the goals at both ends and some empty seats and the bottom level wasn’t full. However, I wasn’t surprised with the crowd figure. Carlton v Hawthorn and the Dome is nearly always a sellout.

So I hope most of you got on the Hawks last night. It was a no-brainer in my mind and I’d like to thank the bookies once more. It’s hard to resist odds of 1.66,1.75,1.83,1.87 and 1.91. Long may the bookies continue to be gullible because the smart punters will catch you out.

Score Predictor

Geelong 113 Brisbane 59 Port Adelaide 81 Essendon 93

Suggested Bet

Port Adelaide Margin 1-39 Happy Days.

[AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Centrebet 1.30 pm - Carlton $2.25 Hawthorn $1.63 3.00 pm - Carlton $1.97 Hawthorn $1.85 Christmas has come early folks! :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin :rollin

[AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17)]

Re: AFL Football Round 12 (Split Round: June 15 - June 17) Tonight’s game should be huge between Carlton and Hawthorn. The free scoring Blues will have to overcome a Hawthorn defence that has only conceded 100 points once all season. In contrast the lowest score Carlton have conceded all season is 98 points.

The Hawks odds have lengthened on speculation that Lance Franklin is in doubt for the game. He seemed to train at full tilt yesterday, so we might have to wait until the team sheets come in before tipping the Hawks with confidence. Croad and Boyle will both play with Mitch Thorp on standby for Franklin.

The Blues are still prone to lapses even though they are a high scoring team. The Hawks have managed to eradicate the lapses from their game and perform consistently across the board. The Hawks are very adaptable and they can constrict the game if they need to, but they need to win this game to keep themselves in the top four. The Blues will have their surges at times but the Hawks should be too steady and win narrowly.

The two games on Saturday night are a complete mystery and not even worth discussing.

Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Carlton 101 Hawthorn 96 Kangaroos 93 Adelaide 89 Western Bulldogs 92 Fremantle 90

Suggested Bets

CARLTON Quarter Time Leader HAWTHORN Margin 1-39

Good luck.

[AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11)]

Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Adelaide 86 Geelong 119 St.Kilda 78 Kangaroos 93 Fremantle 116 Richmond 72 Melbourne 81 Collingwood 103

The Crows will try and close down the game and restrict the Cats, hoping to keep the Cats to scoring about 10 goals because the Crows aren’t capable of kicking much more than that. The Cats won’t get it all their own way but are playing too well and should handle the Crows.

The tall forward structure of St.Kilda must produce today or they can forget about the finals. The Saints are a 40 point better team at the Dome and are getting some good players back. The Kangaroos fell away against the Eagles last week and had a lot of players down. The Saints midfield looks better and I expect them to win comfortably.

The Dockers were good last week against Collingwood and look to have Richmond’s measure. The Tigers will keep them honest but I can’t see them holding Tarrant and Pavlich in the forward line and Sandilands should dominate in the middle.

Monday’s game is the trickiest match of the round to pick. The Demons are looking better and have a good recent record over the Pies. The loss of Prestigiacomo is massive and his replacement, Wakelin is just an ordinary player now. Both defences are suspect and a high scoring game looks on the cards. I think Collingwood will win, but with no confidence.

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Margin (25+)

It’s been a good round so far, with Sydney and the Bulldogs getting their seasons back on track. The Swans were able to adjust after losing Kennelly early against the Hawks. It was a real finals atmosphere at the MCG yesterday and the Hawks need more tests like that to be competitive in September. They lost no friends yesterday and showed they can compete with the best. The Swans needed that win, but need to reproduce that effort against Collingwood next round to show they are a threat again.

Briefly, the Lions are now playing the worst football in the comp. They have been awful in the last 5 weeks and no improvement in sight. The Blues are playing attractive football and crushed Port. Carlton v Hawthorn next Friday night will be a great match in front of a full house.

Good luck.

[AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11)]

Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) Essendon 15.5(95) d. West Coast 14.10(94)

Essendon 97 West Coast 96

Took 11 rounds to get a margin right, but better late than never. Nearly got the score too. Congratulations to Essendon for showing they are clearly good enough for September action. Only need to win 4 more games to qualify for the finals which should be a formality given their fixture. There's no doubt Kevin Sheedy will be signing a new contract in the next few weeks and deservedly so. West Coast now appear to have a problem winning away from home and have Geelong snapping at their heels now.

[AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11)]

Re: AFL Football Round 11 (Friday June 8 - Monday June 11) What to watch for this weekend.

- The weather in Brisbane, if it’s a heavy track or there is rain about, jump off the Bulldogs. The Lions will enjoy playing in the wet (remember Cairns).

- Dennis Cometti wearing a raincoat in the commentary box on Friday night. McAvaney will be orgasmic every time Judd goes near the ball and you know he’ll be excited seeing it’s his first time behind the microphone with Judd playing.

- Luke Hodge is in doubt for the Hawks. The Hawks won’t win if he doesn’t play. They need a full complement of midfielders to attack the Swans.

- Warren Tredrea must perform against Carlton. He will get plenty of opportunities against a suspect defence and if he can’t fire in this, he’ll need to assess his worth to the team.

Some facts

- The Bombers have scored around 100 in their last 7 games at the Dome. - West Coast average 29 points in second halves away from Subiaco this season, and average 8 points in third quarters. - Hawthorn score more heavily after half time in their games. - Swans average 20 points less away from home. - Bulldogs average 90 points away from the Dome, but only score 35 after half time.

- Carlton have only beaten Melbourne in their last 14 games at the Dome.

Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Essendon 97 West Coast 96 Hawthorn 84 Sydney 79 Carlton 93 Port Adelaide 91 Brisbane 80 Western Bulldogs 98

Suggested Bets

SYDNEY Win PORT ADELAIDE Win Good luck everyone.

[AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) Pretty quiet around here tonight. Is everyone in shock having witnessed today's football or are you all out on the town getting smashed? The latter no doubt. Well, I might as well throw my two cents worth in. The Demons fully deserved their victory over Adelaide. Their second quarter was huge scoring 8 goals and whilst the Crows threw caution to the wind in the final term and decided to challenge, the Demons were far to good. The question mark over Adelaide keeps getting bigger and finals action isn't assured. Melbourne 89 Adelaide 72 The West Coast machine demolished the Kangaroos at Subiaco to stamp their authority on the competition. They are still over-using the footy, but the Roos couldn't hurt them today. It was the Kangaroos worst performance of the year and perhaps they can be forgiven for one poor effort, but they were exposed badly today and they now look shaky. West Coast 121 Kangaroos 55 The only thing that saved the Richmond-Brisbane game is that it was close. It only ranked one rung above the Hawthorn-St.Kilda game two weeks back. Neither team deserved to win and the final result was appropriate. Richmond 73 Brisbane 73 Speaking of mediocrity, it looks as though the final eight will have a few sub-standard teams in it this season. The Bombers booked themselves a finals berth tonight knocking over the Swans. Essendon were terrific outlasting a fast-finishing Sydney team and fully deserved their victory. With the Bombers easy run home, I can't see them missing the finals now. The Swans have become very inconsistent and are under pressure to make the finals. They face the Hawks next week and I don't like their chances. Sydney 73 Essendon 74 It's been a tough round so far, but tomorrow looks more promising.

[AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 10 (June 1st - 3rd) It’s already round 10, and I can’t remember this early in a year where so many matches in one round have little or no relevance to September. It’s not an exciting round by any means. What positive spin could you put on the Richmond-Brisbane encounter? One team hasn’t won a game and the other hasn’t won a quarter in their last 12. At least one team will be happy at the end of the night although both of their seasons are shot.

The Dockers score 3 goals more on average on the road than they do at home and play well against the Pies. Collingwood have been poor starters at the MCG averaging 15 points in the 1^st quarter in the last 4 games there and 39 in 1^st halves. However, they still nearly average 100 points per game at the MCG. Should be an interesting game but the Pies will salute.

The Crows did what they needed to last week against the Blues but face a stiffer test this week. Adelaide don’t lose to often in Melbourne and average 100 per game. The Demons have their best players back, but have a number of their second tier out. They have scored 100 once this season and only average 75 in the last 5 games. The Crows should replicate last week’s performance and beat the Demons.

There is huge contrast in styles at Subiaco between West Coast and the Kangaroos. The Eagles were woeful last week taking 20 or 30 disposals to take it from one end to the other and still couldn’t find a target in attack. Their cause hasn’t been helped with the loss of Hansen. The Kangaroos are on a hot streak and Subiaco won’t worry them. The beauty of the Kangaroos is their penetration into the forward line and finding goalkickers that you don’t expect to score heavily. Should be a close game but the home team should prevail.

Port Adelaide’s reputation is on the line against the Hawks on Sunday. Their effort against Geelong was deplorable and will need to improve drastically just to challenge the Hawks. Over the last 5 years, the games between these two teams has resembled circle work. One team would get the ball in defence, bring it around the wing unchallenged, and then find a tall forward. If that was unsuccessful, the other team would get the ball do the same around the other wing then look for a forward option. The team with the best forwards would win. The Hawks will be at them all day, but Port have to win to get their credibility back.

Teams close to full strength this week

93% Western Bulldogs, Sydney 90% Hawthorn 87% Essendon 85 % Geelong

Teams weakened by injury & suspension this week

62% West Coast 63% Richmond 65% St.Kilda 66% Melbourne

Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Collingwood 107 Fremantle 83 Melbourne 68 Adelaide 99 West Coast 104 Kangaroos 96 Richmond 70 Brisbane 94 Sydney102 Essendon 86 Port Adelaide 99 Hawthorn 93 Carlton 86 Western Bulldogs 95 St.Kilda 70 Geelong125

Suggested Bets

ADELAIDE Margin 1-39 WESTCOAST Margin 1-39 PORT ADELAIDE Points(-11.5)

[AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Highlights

- Hawthorn beating teams that have been pumping them for the last 5 years. They have another hoodoo to break next week. - Collingwood exposing Brisbane for the fraud that they are. - Indigenous round promotion. - Brett Kirk is still the best run-with player in the comp.

Lowlights

- Another 6 goal effort by St.Kilda. - Hands in the back debacle. - If you are going to slow down the play, make sure you can’t be beaten first. - Fox Sports coverage of footy is showing no signs of improvement. It looks like they spent so much on the rights, that the coverage itself looks and is cheap.

Thumbs Up

Geelong – Best 1^st half this season, including their 20 goal 1^st half against Richmond. Collingwood – Play better outside Victoria. Perhaps they should play all 6 non-Victorian teams away, for a change. Sydney – Raise their performance against contenders who are really pretenders. The Bookies – Thanks for lengthening Sydney’s price when you discovered Kennelly and Davis wouldn’t play. Much appreciated.

Thumbs Down

West Coast – Overusing the footy, giving their already impotent forward line no chance of kicking a winning score. Bulldogs – Another home game outside Victoria and another loss. It could mean the difference between finishing 4^th and 7^th. Or even 8^th and 9^th. Spend those dollars wisely. Chris Judd – Ouch! Will he get charged with eye-gouging or negligent contact to the face? I’m guessing the latter and he will cop the reprimand.

The Wash-Up

Predictor – 5 from 8 Tips – 5 from 8 Bets – 2 from 5 (could so easily have been 4, but happy nonetheless)

[AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Western Bulldogs 96 Sydney 92 Melbourne 59 Kangaroos 97 Port Adelaide 96 Geelong 111

The Western Bulldogs face a Sydney team missing Davis and Kennelly. The Swans are full of confidence after beating Port but will miss the rebound from Kennelly. The Bulldogs will miss the run of Griffen and McMahon and will not appreciate the close checking tactics of the Swans. The Swans will show they are still a force by disposing of the Dogs, but it won't be a pretty game.

In the other games, I think the Demons can break their duck with Robertson too boost their attack, whilst Port should be too quick for the Cats in Adelaide.

Suggested Bets

SYDNEY Win, Margin 1-39

[AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 9 (May 25th - 27th) Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Fremantle 104 St.Kilda 65 Carlton 74 Adelaide88 Hawthorn 87 West Coast 90 Richmond 54 Essendon 97 Brisbane 86 Collingwood 84

Scary, but true

- St.Kilda is averaging a paltry 58 points per game away from Telstra Dome this season.

- The Bombers have played 11 games at the MCG since the start of last season for the grand result of 1 win and a draw. However, their 1^st quarters are the exact opposite, 9 winning 1^st quarters, a tie and a lose.

- Adelaide have won 8 out of their last 10 at Telstra Dome.

Preview

I cannot remember a team under such pressure to win at home as Fremantle. They are walking a tightrope and one slip up could prove fatal. I still have them making the finals but they must make a stand. They must win 4 of their next 5 games to entertain any thoughts of making the finals. Both midfields are slow and aren’t great at stoppages, but I can’t see the Saints having enough scoring opportunities to trouble the Dockers.

The Crows were poor last week, but they don’t often play two bad games in a row and should have no trouble dispatching the Blues. Three terrific inclusions for Adelaide will boost their running power and they won’t miss Burton because he hasn’t fired a shot all season. The Blues depth is being tested now and they won’t score as heavily this week against a great defence.

The game in Launceston will be won in the midfield. Hawthorn are at full strength as far as runners go, whilst the Eagles will be dependant on Judd, Braun, Stenglein and Priddis. If the Hawks can get 25 scoring shots, they will win, but I have too much respect for the Eagles defence. Lynch and Hansen will cause problems for the Hawks and should just get over the line.

The Magpies get their chance to break their duck at Gabba against the Lions. They lost no respect by losing to the Dogs last week, but their conversion in front of goal is a huge concern. The Lions were appalling last week and are now too dependent Brown. The Magpies should be able to negate him and leave Brisbane with the 4 points.

Suggested Bets

ADELAIDE Line (-22.5) WESTCOAST Line (-6.5) Collingwood Win

[AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) What a strange weekend of football. It’s difficult to gauge whether to disregard much of what happened as an anomaly or unleash the daggers on teams that aren’t living up to expectations. Adelaide coach has the talent at his disposal to win a premiership, but he has brainwashed them to such an extent that I don’t think they can win. They don’t need to play no-risk football to overcome an under-achieving minnow of the competition. Yet they nearly handed Richmond an unlikely victory and slit their own throat in the process. I’m losing my faith in the Crows. The match at the MCG was an intriguing affair. St.Kilda lost Gram and X.Clarke before the bounce robbing them of much needed run. But Hawthorn were gun shy after being torn apart by Gehrig, Riewoldt, Milne and Koschitzke constantly in the last 4 years. I could understand both teams playing a spare man in defence, but when the Saints put 2 back at the start of the second quarter, it was going to be a long night. The Saints constantly found a loose man but couldn’t penetrate the forward 50, whilst the Hawks were more daring bringing the ball down, but couldn’t convert. The game inevitably broke open midway through the third, and it was Hawthorn’s running power that got them over the line. It was only a matter of time before the Eagles flexed their muscles and the Demons felt their full force. Conversion was the only factor that would disappoint the Eagles. Any confidence the Demons had pre-game was snuffed out 10 minutes in. They were outplayed from the start and were lucky not to lose my more.

Thumbs Up

Bulldogs – Was I watching a replay of last year’s elimination final again today? Sydney – A clinical display over a premiership threat. Brad Sewell – Scalp No.8, Nick Dal Santo.

Thumbs Down

Rod Butterss – Why did you sack Grant Thomas for, again? Neale Daniher – It’s time. Brisbane – Do or die, next week.

Summary

My Tips – 7/8 Score Predictor – 7/8 Suggested Bets – 1/3 (Will do better)

[AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) Thanks for the kind words guys.

Some of the suggestions thrown up provide food for thought.

To ads25, what you say about using data from a game 7 years ago is fair enough, but this would be one of the few instances you would need to go back so far, although with teams playing at secondary homes now that whole stat about using the last 4 games at a particular venue becomes suspect. Perhaps it could be substituted by using the last 4 times they’ve played one another at any venue. That’s a very good suggestion, ads25.

To Jeffers, I do update the rankings every 4 rounds. You can’t chop and change after one terrific performance. Some of my big improvers include; - Tarkyn Lockyer (top 8 at Collingwood) - Clinton Young (top 12 at Hawthorn) - Hamish McIntosh (top 10 at Kangaroos) - Leigh Montagna (top 12 at St.Kilda) - Daniel Cross (top 5 at Bulldogs)

To vagabund, that’s another sound and logical suggestion. It would be easy to implement, although the impact on the final total would probably be minimal. However, I’ll trial it over the next few weeks and let you know how it goes.

Score Predictor & My Tips(in Bold) Adelaide 106 Richmond 66 Essendon 104 Brisbane 99 Geelong 117 Fremantle 76 Hawthorn 92 St.Kilda 81

Kangaroos 109 Carlton 83

Sydney100 Port Adelaide 83 Western Bulldogs 89 Collingwood 96 West Coast 104 Melbourne 74

Winners look to be easier to find this weekend compared to last, but I think there will be a few upsets. Brisbane, Hawthorn, Carlton, Port and Collingwood have huge chances.The weather will play a factor at the MCG and Skilled Stadium.

Of the games I like, the MCG game should be a beauty. The Hawks were good last week and just lacked some polish before going down. The Saints are in good form, but Goddard will be badly missed. Doc Clarke is a late withdrawl which puts pressure on their midfield. The Saints have made a habit of pumping the Hawks over the past few years, but this is a mentally tougher Hawks outfit. The Saints scoring power should get them home, but a rain-affected match will turn the result on it’s head and suit the Hawks.

The Swans have got to start showing something now. The midfield has looked wobbly all season and will be sorely tested here. I foresee a similar match here to the one where Sydney overran the Lions. Port couldn’t handle the Crows a month ago, and Sydney play a similar style. Kennelly is back for the Swans, and they are a much better team with him as there springboard.

The Demons head out west, and will fancy there chances. They’ve been stiff the past 2 weeks and face an Eagles outfit that are in cruise control mode. The Demons don’t travel well, but they’ve named a good team that can test the Eagles. The Eagles should win but the Demons will be no pushover.

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Win SYDNEY Margin 1-39 WESTCOAST Margin 1-39

[AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 8 (Friday May 18 - Sunday May 20) The Crisp Score Predictor Explained.

Through popular demand, I’m going to attempt to explain how I go about predicting the scores for each round. As you have noticed so far, the strike rate for getting winners is O.K, finding 33 out of the 56 winners so far. There are several key components to come up with a final total.

A) Team strength = 40%

B) Last 5 games = 40%

C) Last 4 games at the venue =10%

D) Last 4 games against opponent at that venue =10%

To do this properly, I’ll use a practical example from Round 8, Geelong v Fremantle.

TEAM STRENGTH

Geelong have 5 of their best 22 out, including their best player, Paul Chapman missing. So I estimate that they are at 76% capacity.

Fremantle have 5 of their best 22 out, but have their best 6 playing. So I estimate that they are at 82% capacity.

I rate every player on every list. Depending on how many injuries/suspensions a team has, their playing capacity will be usually between 65-100%.

LAST 5 GAMES

Geelong are averaging 125 points in the last 5 games.

Fremantle are averaging 88 points in the last 5 games.

Geelong are averaging +45 margin in the last 5 games.

Fremantle are averaging – 8 margin in their last 5 games

Add the combined averages together.

Geelong’s new average is 170 (125 + 45)

Fremantle’s new average is 80 (88 – 8)

LAST 4 GAMES AT VENUE AGAINST ANY OPPONENT

Geelong’s average score is 90 points at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games.

Fremantle’s average score is 62 points at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games.

LAST 4 GAMES AGAINST OPPONENT AT VENUE

Geelong’s average score against Fremantle at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games is 96.

Fremantle’s average score against Geelong at Skilled Stadium in the last 4 games is 62.

Geelong

= A 40% of 76 + B 40% of 170 + C 10% of 90 + D 10% of 96

= 30.4 + 68.0 + 9.0 + 9.6

= 117.0

= 117

Fremantle

= A 40% of 82 + B 40% of 80 + C 10% of 62 + D 10% of 62

= 32.8 + 32.0 + 6.2 + 6.2

= 76.2

= 76

Score Predictor

Geelong 117 v Fremantle 76

I hope the process I’ve displayed is clear for you to understand. It’s not that complicated and is just a bit off fun. The only time I alter anything is when extreme weather conditions are involved and I’ll reduce the figures to suit. I’m sure there will be a few people that will query and challenge my findings, but this system is far from perfect and open to debate.

[AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Round 7 is complete, and some teams thinking they could make finals should start making alternative arrangements. A few teams were badly exposed for the whole football world to see. Brisbane were made to look second-rate by an injury depleted Crows line-up who play a lot better away from AAMI stadium. Brisbane only had 2 from their best team missing and perhaps some of those younger bodies are feeling the strain against some seasoned campaigners. The pen can safely be put through the Bombers as well. After getting under the guard in the first few weeks, their midfield has been exposed as clearly the worst in the competition. Opposition supporters can’t believe their luck when the likes of Watson, Peverill and the Johnsons get 100 possessions between them and do nothing with it. It’s time for Sheedy to turn to youth before the inevitable axe falls. They have a few easier games coming up to get their season back on track, but winning those is merely window dressing because they have plenty of building to do. It was great to see the Cats take a big scalp, but they need to back it up again against the Dockers next weekend. With a few tough trips upcoming, they must make every post a winner. No concerns for the Eagles after today. They were just getting a poor game out of the system. They’ll have others throughout the season but I don’t think Worsfold will be losing any sleep.

Thumbs Up

Mark Williams – Quickly rebuilt his list, and cheekily experimented with his team yesterday. Top coach. St.Kilda – They are much harder at the contest, and starting to find consistency. They are about to launch a serious challenge. Fremantle – Survived a serious test today which should launch their finals assault.

Thumbs Down

Essendon – No Lloyd, no Goldspink, no Essendon. Carlton – Do they realise a match goes for 4 quarters? That game was lost at 3QT. Sydney – I think the ship is sinking. A win against Port next week is essential.

The Important Bit

I tipped 7 winners this weekend missing on Geelong. I’ll highlight my tips in future.

Score Predictor

Kangaroos 93 Essendon 94 Collingwood 101 Carlton 93 (Correction. Sorry Beejayville) Port Adelaide 121 Richmond 75 St.Kilda 78 Sydney 101 Brisbane 87 Adelaide 70 Geelong 98 West Coast 68 Western Bulldogs 108 Melbourne 98 Fremantle 93 Hawthorn 86

Suggested Bets

MELBOURNE Line (+14.5):nana FREMANTLE Win, Line (-15.5), Points (-20.5):nana :nana :wall

Saturday wasn’t a great day for the score predictor, but today was exceptional. Hopefully it will be as accurate for the remainder of the season. The suggested bets are still flying getting 3 out of 4 correct. That’s 11 out of the last 13 correct at 85%. Let’s hope I can keep that strike rate up.

[AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) My score predictor is calculated from 5 different components as explained in the round 1 thread. I average those components out which leaves me with a final total using a pen and paper by the way. I don't necessarily agree with what the calculations thrown out. I thought the Roos would win tonight even though the predictor didn't. I think Geelong will lose to West Coast but the predictor says they will win comfortably. As far as the Dockers-Hawks match goes, I think the Hawks will get hammered, but the stats show a very close game that could go either way. I hope this explains things for you. All the best with your punting and thanks for joining us. The score predictor is just a bit of fun that has been mildly successful. My suggested bets have a better strike rate and more profitable. To Beejayville, after reading your post, I re-checked my calculations and found I omitted one component which pushes the Pies over the line. The Pies will start hot favourites, but it will be no cakewalk. Nobody in their right mind would have thought Essendon would have beaten Collingwood with a few rounds remaining last year either, but the boilover occurred. Collingwood have only 3 of their best 12 players out. I think you overestimate some of Collingwood's players. Buckley is like Hird. Both were great, but now are just average. Lockyer is now more effective than Buckley ever will. Players like Licuria, Medhurst and Holland aren't even in Collingwood's top 10. This game could go either way make no mistake. I re-adjusted a few other totals in the score predictor after discovering my mistake. All the best everyone and good punting to you all.

[AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) Score Predictor

Kangaroos 93 Essendon 94 Collingwood 101 Carlton 93 (Correction. Sorry Beejayville) Port Adelaide 121 Richmond 75 St.Kilda 78 Sydney 101 Brisbane 87 Adelaide 70 Geelong 98 West Coast 68 Western Bulldogs 108 Melbourne 98 Fremantle 93 Hawthorn 86

The Facts

- Essendon has never beaten the Kangaroos at Telstra Dome. - Since 2000, 25 teams have been beaten by more than 100 points with 10 winning the next round. - Adelaide have not scored more than 90 points at the Gabba in their last 5 matches. - West Coast average 58 points in their last 4 visits to Geelong. - Hawthorn has failed to kick 60 points at Subiaco in 4 of their last 5 attempts. - Richmond is fielding a team is not dissimilar to the team that was narrowly beaten by Sydney in round 2. - Collingwood has 7 of their best 22 players missing. Carlton only has 2. - Melbourne fielding their best team since round 2.

This Weekend

The Sunday games are the ones to tackle this weekend. The Bulldogs are just going at the moment and they need a big win to make the competition sit up and take notice. It won’t happen here with the Demons starting to come good. Even though I don’t think they’ll get up in this game , the Demons look like they can match the Dogs in every department. Neitz and Green will pose problems to the Dogs’ defence. The game in Perth is a season defining game. The Dockers must win to the respect of the football world back. The Hawks need to take a big scalp to enhance their reputation. They have a difficult 5 week stretch upcoming and need a couple of wins to keep the finals dream alive. The Hawks were hardly tested last week whilst the Dockers wilted in Brisbane. I think the Dockers can match the Hawks hardness at the ball and the forward line strength will be the Hawks biggest test so far. The Hawks need to start well to be a chance, but have not done so in any game so far. The Hawks will be brave, but the Dockers have the ammunition to blow them away.

Suggested Bets

MELBOURNE Line (+14.5) FREMANTLE Win, Line (-15.5), Points (-20.5)

[AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) As part of the T.V rights carve-up, it was determined by Channel 10 and Fox Sports that the best 11 home & away games on Saturday afternoons/ public holidays would be shown on Channel 10. The next best 6 Saturday afternoon games would then be chosen by Fox Sports. Obviously the Collingwood v Carlton game was a first pick Fox Sports game.

Let’s face it, Collingwood only have 3 games live on Fox Sports all season and 19 on free to air. The matches have already been designated to the networks for the entire season. There should be no complaints from Collingwood supporters. Teams like Hawthorn and Kangaroos don’t even get half the free to air coverage Collingwood gets. These clubs are being slaughtered because club sponsors are not getting sufficient exposure. These two clubs in particular moved games to Gold Coast and Launceston respectively so they could make money from poor drawing games and have their games shown on free to air back to their home supporters. Both clubs were duped and out of the combined 7 games they play at their secondary home, only two are on free to air.

On the coverage itself, I must confess, I don’t watch Channel 7’s. I don’t watch sport delayed. I don’t think I’ve watched a Friday night game for 3 or 4 years. It’s live or it’s nothing as far as I’m concerned. I’ll listen instead.

Channel 10 miss a lot of action whilst we sit through endless replays. Their total package is O.K, but they certainly can improve. Fox Sports coverage looks cheap and nasty. Who will ever forget their 1^st quarter effort in Launceston. Their experts are under utilized. The last thing I want to hear is analysis from Dwayne Russell and Clinton Grybas when you have two experts sitting either side of you trying to get a word in whilst you draw breath. Their boundary experts are cardboard cut-outs with a pulse. Just a dull coverage and they don’t add much enthusiasm at all. I can’t believe they paid $320 million and deliver that.

The radio coverage is pretty good with all matches now being covered now. I listened to MMM last Saturday and they do a great job. They seem to enjoy their work, they are enthusiastic and bring excitement to the game. The ABC do a solid job, without the personalities with more of a news based edge to them. SEN are the newcomers and have hit the ground running. Their pre-game shows are terrific and have unearthed some great talent including Grant Thomas, Liam Pickering and Mark Robinson. They have assembled a great team on a small budget and are performing well. 3AW is rubbish. I want to know where the ball is and who is kicking it. I don’t want sound effects, music and commentators singing. I don’t want to decipher a nickname and try and guess who’s got the ball. I can’t believe they are the highest rating footy coverage. Rex Hunt ceased been funny 20 years ago, yet people still listen him. He appeals to the lowest common denominator, no doubt about that.

Congratulations to everybody contributing to this forum. You all do a great job, and I’m glad you are letting me part of it. Looks like we are all challenging ourselves to get the best out of one another. Tough weekend coming up and it’s going to be hard to preserve my good run. 8 out of my last 9 tips have saluted. Tread wearily in round 7, there are potholes everywhere.

[AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 7 (May 11th - 13th) SCORING TRENDS

Adelaide – Average 72 points at home. Average 20 points more away. Brisbane – Score more in 1^st half. Only average 31 points in 2^nd half. Consistent scoring throughout a game. Carlton – 2^nd quarter their best. Final quarter their worst. Only average 66 points away from home. Collingwood – 3^rd quarter their best. Average 77 points outside Victoria. Essendon – 3^rd quarter their worst. Average 79 points outside Victoria. Fremantle – Score 3 goals less at home than away. Average 105 outside W.A. Geelong – 3^rd quarter their best. Hawthorn – 1^st quarter their worst. Average 104 points at home. Score heavily in 2^nd & 3^rd quarters. Kangaroos – Consistent scoring home and away. 1^st quarter their best. 2^nd quarter away from home is averaging only 13 points. Melbourne – 3^rd quarter their best. They average 74 points per game. Port Adelaide – Average 15 points in 1^st quarter at home. Score heavily in 2^nd & 3^rd quarters. Richmond – 2^nd quarter their worst. Average 31 points in 1^st halves away from MCG. St.Kilda – 2^nd quarter their worst. Average 114 points at the Dome. Average 67 points away frm the Dome. Sydney – Average 27 points in 1^st halves away form Sydney. Average 101 points at home, 78 points away. 4^th quarters their best. West Coast – Average 2 goals more at home than away. 3^rd quarters their worst. Western Bulldogs – Average 105 points at the Dome. 3^rd quarters are their worst.

Final Ladder Prediction

West Coast – Will lose some away games through the middle of the season but will finish strongly. Adelaide – If they are to make the top 4, they’ll need to win 7 off 9 between rounds 13-21. Port Adelaide – Must win every game they can before mid-season break because they have a difficult run home. St. Kilda – Should win 10 out of 16 games in the run home. Sydney – Should win 9 out of 16 games to make the finals. Collingwood – Must win 3 games between rounds 17-22 to make the finals. Fremantle – Must win every game between rounds 9-13 just to make the finals. Western Bulldogs – Need to finish strongly to make the finals. Hawthorn – Need to win 2 of their next 4 to give themselves a chance to make finals. Geelong – Will need to win 4 games in a row at some stage to make the finals. Essendon – Need to find a win between rounds 9-12 to give themselves a chance. Brisbane – Need to find 3 wins between rounds 7-14 to give themselves a chance. Kangaroos – Can win 10 games at best. Melbourne – Can win 9 games at best. Carlton – Can win 8 games at best. Richmond – Can win 7 games at best.

[AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Score Predictor Brisbane 107 Fremantle 85 Melbourne 85 Port Adelaide 113 Richmond 74 Geelong 111 It’s been a tough round on the punt so far, but it’s been good to see some Melbourne clubs stick it up the interstaters. There are some worrying signs in Adelaide after being blown off the park by the Pies. A huge effort by the Kangas to hold off the Swans. What a thrilling final quarter, as exciting as any I’ve seen for a while. Hopefully the Roos can get a full house against the Bombers next week, because their brand off footy is terrific. The Lions have a tremendous record against the Dockers and will be fully tested here. Pavlich and Tarrant hold the key against inexperienced opponents. A hot day in Brisbane won’t help their cause and that is the main factor why I predict a home victory. The return of Neitz is a huge bonus for Melbourne against Port. The Demons always match up well against Port particularly through the middle. Port are due for a downer and will miss Wilson and Salopek. Weather shouldn’t influence the game. Currently overcast with perhaps a shower or two throughout the day with no breeze..Tough to call, but I won’t be betting in this. The moment of truth is here for Geelong. Losing is not an option. Richmond coach Terry Wallace has already given up on the season by removing Gaspar with Tivendale heading the same way. I just think this will be a similar game to Geelong’s thrashing of Carlton in round 2. Richmond have been good without winning, and they are overdue to be blown out of the water, and the Cats are the team to do it. Suggested Bet

GEELONG Points (-18.5) Good luck.

[AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 6 (May 4th - 6th) Score Predictor St.Kilda 101 Carlton 91 Essendon 96 Hawthorn 85 West Coast 105 Western Bulldogs 81 Kangaroos 74 Sydney 88 Adelaide 79 Collingwood 75

The Friday night game has tightened up considerably. The Saints are struggling with numbers through the midfield and in defence. No excuse for Fevola not to kick 7-10 goals regardless of delivery. Is it just me or is he a bigger crybaby that Richardson ever was? Needs to be on his best behaviour to give the Blues a chance. Even though the Saints have been injury-ravaged for a few seasons now, they’ve always given the Blues a hiding. I’ll stick with the Saints because they still have the tougher midfielders and have multiple forward options that can score heavily even if midfield supply is reduced. Essendon v Hawthorn is a great match-up with contrasting styles. The Bombers crave a free flowing shoot out and feeding their key forwards. The Hawks are a tough in an under hard working, hard running team. They specialize in clearing from stoppages and rely on leading forwards to finish off the good work. It worked reasonably well last week, but conversion was the problem. Hawthorn’s midfield is clearly superior, but Essendon’s scoring power will cause headaches. Flip a coin. It’s that close. The Eagles are operating at about 80% presently, and that’s plenty to dispose of the Dogs. I’ve never seen a team in 25 years allergic to body contact like the Dogs are. They have very few players willing to get a hard ball, whilst the Eagles have love the conested ball. The Dogs will hang in, but will eventually be blown away by the premiership favourite. The Saturday night games will be arm wrestles. The Kangaroos have played solid football every round this season highlighted by last week’s effort in Geelong. The Swans will miss the run off Kennelly who has been there best player so far. Goodes and Everitt need to lift because they’ve been poor so far, and come up against the league’s in form ruckman. Sydney should win in a low scoring scrap. Collingwood coach Mick Malthouse said this week he’d rather be involved in low scoring contests rather than a Carlton-Brisbane style shoot out. Hardly surprising coming from a coach who won 2 titles at West Coast based on defence. He’ll get his low scoring wish here, but the Crows look to have all bases covered. The Pies will look winners at some stage, but the Crows have too much brilliance and won’t let this slip. Goal scoring could be a problem for the Pies because Rutten will have Rocca for dinner.

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Win WESTCOAST Margin 1-39 ADELAIDE Margin 1-39

Good punting one and all.

[AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 5 (April 25th - 29th) Round 5 Assessment

A couple of upsets, a couple of blowouts and a lot of close matches highlighted this round. The Tigers were terrific against the Eagles, but an atrocious second quarter cost them a chance of winning. A win is just around the corner, and perhaps sooner than you think. The shootout at the Dome in the first half on Saturday night took me back to 80’s football. Pity we only see it a few times a year nowadays. Both coaches allowed their team off the leash and 27 goals resulted. But the trip from Perth claimed another victim, and the Blues couldn’t respond in the last quarter. Another game of rugby/wrestling in Perth, with the Dockers poking their nose out on the finish line. It appears this style of game will be played anytime the best 4 teams play one another. We know who they are don’t we?

Thumbs Up

Kangaroos – Finally getting reward for effort. They have 4 winnable games upcoming. Port – Tredrea is coming good, the midfield is flying and they are looking dangerous. Scott West – The man is a machine. If you don’t tag him, he’ll rip your heart out.

Thumbs Down

Mark Thompson – That noose around his neck just got tightened. Jeff Farmer – Happy retirement. There will be no party for you. True colours revealed. Victorian football – There is a pulse, but how bad is it going?

The Important Bit

Suggested Bets

BRISBANE Win :clap WESTERN BULLDOGS Win/Line/Start :clap :clap :clap FREMANTLE Margin 1-39 :clap

A very solid weekend, getting all bets over the line successfully, and now well and truly back in the black. Next week is another challenge, but there are a few standouts and dollars to be made. Over and out.