[AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) The finals race is down to 8, but realistically 3. The teams from 5^th downwards are just making up the numbers whilst the Kangaroos can boost their hopes by toppling the Cats in week 1 without Egan at centre half back. The Roos have some hardcore finals performers, but can they carry their inexperienced teammates with them. The Cats are flying at present and should have too many guns for the Roos. Port Adelaide have a great record over the Eagles at AAMI and look the goods, although they are prone to fadeouts particularly in 3^rd quarters in their last 2 home games. The Eagles are hard to gauge without knowing who’ll line up, but they can’t be dismissed lightly. The Crows will go in overwhelming favourites against the Hawks at Telstra Dome. The Crows did the job over Collingwood on Friday night, but weren’t that convincing allowing the Pies to stay in the game all night. The Hawks were awful yesterday, but I think they went into the game with a poor mindset and losing key players early didn’t help their cause. They’ve always been able to bounce back after poor defeats all year, and I’d expect them to go close. I haven’t seen anything in the last 9 days to suggest that Sydney can turn the tables on Collingwood. The Pies will be strengthened with Fraser, Didak, Holland and Rusling returning. The Swans were good yesterday but a performance like that is pretty rare for the Swans nowadays.

The Wash-Up

Round 22

Predictor – 6 from 8 Tips – 7 from 8 Bets – 1 from 3

Season

Predictor – 111 from 176 (63%) Tips – 115 from 176 (65%) Bets – 43 from 85 (51%)

The pain is only beginning for the Blues. They’ve been getting great draft picks for 6 years and are still on the bottom. Remarkably, they still have 10 or 12 players on their list that are surplus to requirements and not up to AFL standard. They still need one big cleanout before things improve, but will they have the guts to do it?

[AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 22 (August 31st - September 2nd) Congrats Dean Bailey on snaring the Melbourne job. It’s probably the best of the four jobs left vacant with a big chance of a quick rebound in 2008. The Dockers should also challenge for finals depending how deep Harvey cuts the list. There is plenty of pain ahead for the Bombers and Blues to come with no finals likely for at least 3 years.

There are usually plenty of blowouts historically in round 22, and this should be no exception. Tonight’s game is to close to call, but an Adelaide loss would keep 8th spot open for a little longer, although Rusling is out for Ben Reid. The game total shouldn’t go over 190.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

1 – Kangaroos 2 – Hawthorn 3 – Geelong, Sydney 4 – Port Adelaide, St.Kilda 5 – Adelaide, Essendon, West Coast 6 – Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond 7 – Western Bulldogs 8 – Carlton, Melbourne 12- Fremantle

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

COLLINGWOOD 79-86 Adelaide Richmond 75-92 ST.KILDA WESTCOAST 105-73 Essendon PORT ADELAIDE 109-84 Fremantle Brisbane 92-116 GEELONG SYDNEY 80-87 Hawthorn Western Bulldogs 73-116 KANGAROOS

MELBOURNE86-92 Carlton

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Points (-20.5)

- Too many big forwards for Richmond to handle and the ability to close down the Tigers run. Tigers haven’t won a final round game since 2001 and beating the Saints will be more difficult than pumping the Bombers. GEELONG Margin 1-39

- Cats defence shouldn’t have many problems restricting Brown & Co with Ling to tag Black who has been average in the last month. Lions had the stuffing knocked out of them losing to the Hawks and haven’t really recovered. SYDNEY Win

- Need to hit the finals with some momentum or they’ll be blown away in week one. Hawks have an appalling record in Sydney and will be hit harder this week compared to last week’s non-contact training session.

Good luck on the punt this weekend.

[AFL Football - Round 21 (August 24th - 26th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 21 (August 24th - 26th) The excitement never stops in the lead up to the finals. It’s great to see the on-field action being talked up instead off the rubbish that occurs off the field. However, I want to touch on a few matters raised through the week.

The injury to Daniel Kerr is just about the knockout blow for the Eagles. They’ve had to deal with so much this year, but losing Kerr is like a dagger through the heart. Playing semi-fit players in the midfield such as Judd, Cousins and Fletcher will inevitably come back and bite them in the backside. They might still win their last 2 games and claim the double chance home final, but everything will need to go right from here on in.

The Steven Baker case was a complete balls up from every party involved. People contradicting one another, people saying they saw the incident, then backtracking when it came to the crunch. Everyone had egg on their face and Baker copped 7 games. The whole thing was a joke from start to finish and is another black eye for the AFL.

The Blues have their man, appointing Brett Ratten as their coach for the next 2 seasons. It wasn’t a very exhaustive search after Voss dropped out of the race. Hopefully it works out for the Blues, but there is still plenty of pain ahead and plenty of dead wood to be disposed off.

The games this weekend and are once again another nightmare for tipsters. The Saints played their best game of the year last week against the Dockers and a repetition should beat the Eagles. They’ll miss Hudghton in defence, but welcome back Koschitzke to play ruck/forward. The Eagles’ defensive pressure through the midfield has been close to non-existent in the last 3 weeks allowing plenty of easy ball into their opponent’s forward line. The Saints will apply the clamps across the middle using up to 3 tags as they did against the Hawks a month ago. Eagles coach John Worsfold has flagged the theory that they might finish a few spots lower on the ladder to protect their gun players. This game is more important to the Saints at this stage and I expect them to win by a few goals.

The Pies must snap out of their lethargy if they are going to contend for a top 4 finish. The return of Buckley is a massive boost to the Pies and I’m sure he’ll be spending most of the night patrolling the forward line. Fraser being out gives Everitt and Jolly an armchair ride in the ruck and is an area the Pies need to break even. Leo Barry is likely to be a non-starter which opens the door to Collingwood’s key forwards to take some ascendancy. The Swans are just going at the moment with their forward line well down in their output and particularly poor against an ordinary Lions defence. The Pies aren’t going much better, but their 1^st half against the Demons was top shelf and even though they fell over the line, they showed plenty of fighting spirit to hold on and win unlike the Swans. I’m picking the Pies to win in a similar fashion to their earlier meeting.

The Lions look to have slipped back to their early season form, with an over-dependence on Brown to kick the bulk of their score. Their team is starting to lose key players and without Charman to feed their midfielders, they face an uphill battle to compete with the Crows. The Crows look strong in defence and have their leader back. It will definitely be a midfield battle and a typical Adelaide arm wrestle, but they should win comfortably and keep their finals hopes alive.

The Bulldogs have a huge opportunity to derail Hawthorn’s finals campaign. The recent record over the Hawks is impressive and dealt with them earlier in the season by playing smart football. Smart is something you don’t associate with the Hawks after last week’s final quarter debacle. The game was won by the Bulldogs last time because Harris dominated the game in defence, zoned off Roughead and marked everything in sight. After last week, the Hawks are either going to blow the Bulldogs away, or go into their shell and try and eek out a victory. I’m in favour of the latter. I think the Hawks will crumble and the Dogs are just the team to take advantage and pick up a consolation victory.

The Cats have had a small setback for the Cats with Jimmy Bartel missing a couple of weeks with appendicitis. The Cats are going nicely and have dispensed with King in the ruck in favour of Blake. I picture a similar game to the one the Cats played against the Crows a fortnight ago. Both teams are great starters, which normally break the back off their opponents more often than not. Port’s quick midfield will cause the Cats some headaches, but the Cats should prevail by 4 or 5 goals. Number of players missing from best 22’s

2 – Geelong, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide 3 – Kangaroos, Sydney 4 – Essendon, Western Bulldogs 5 – Adelaide, Carlton, Fremantle, St.Kilda 6 – Collingwood, Richmond, West Coast 7 – Brisbane 8 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

ST.KILDA 94-108 West Coast Carlton 89-119 KANGAROOS FREMANTLE 109-59 Melbourne COLLINGWOOD 71-91 Sydney ADELAIDE 95-108 Brisbane WESTERN BULLDOGS 79-117 Hawthorn GEELONG100-94PortAdelaide ESSENDON 88-79 Richmond

Suggested Bets

COLLINGWOOD Win ADELAIDE Margin 1-39 WESTERN BULLDOGS Line (+15.5) Good luck on the punt this weekend.

[AFL. Rd. 20.]

[AFL. Rd. 20.]

Re: AFL. Rd. 20. Late Changes Essendon - No change Carlton - Out: Russell In: Bentick St.Kilda - Out: Koschitzke In: M.Clarke Fremantle - Out: Schammer In: Cook

[AFL. Rd. 20.]

Re: AFL. Rd. 20. The business end of the season has begun, and round 20 looks without doubt the toughest round of the season. Almost impossible to find a winner with confidence and it’s not doing my heart much good, leading one tipping competition by one win and trailing another by one win. I don’t want to become conservative this time of year and continue to apply sound and logical principles to my tipping, but it’s difficult not to take the soft option. The Sunday games are a little more clear-cut, but Saturday is a nightmare.

The Pies have turned the fixture from heaven into a fight for their football survival. After looking a top two certainty 6 weeks ago, they have gone about replicating last year’s effort and fallen away at the wrong time of year. And the culprits are the same, the aging, one-paced midfield. They are going to be horribly exposed tonight with Melbourne’s midfield, only missing Bruce, finding form last week and have a habit of blitzing Collingwood in recent times. Jeff White should have a night out with Fraser missing and the legend David Neitz plays his 300^th game. Having said all that, the Magpies have to find two wins from somewhere to secure a finals spot, and this is their easiest game in the run home. Rocca and Cloke must impose themselves on this contest and kick 8-10 goals between them for Collingwood to win.

The Bombers look to keep the finals dream alive against the Blues. Hird is rushed back into the team, but will be replaced by Watson if he doesn’t come up. The dropping of Hille, Peverill and Dyson is a surprise and hasn’t enhanced their chances of winning too much.The Bombers record at the MCG in the last 18 months is appalling winning 2.5 games out of 14. The Blues form has improved since the Pagan sacking, but still no wins to show for it. Their team is significantly weakened since the last time they played the Bombers with Stevens, Cloke and Thornton missing. At the end of the day, one team needs to win and the other needs to lose. I’ll leave it at that.

The Saints have no excuses against the Dockers at the Dome. Only Goddard is missing, they love playing at the Dome and have some scores to settle against the Dockers. The Saints midfield looks strong and should supply Riewoldt and Koschitske adequately. The Dockers have hardly put a foot wrong since Harvey took over with Pavlich, Farmer and Tarrant working well together and Josh Carr and Bell firing in the middle. The Dockers will hang in there for most of the game, but I can’t see the Saints letting this slip.

The Lions were tremendous last week bar 20 minutes in the 3^rd quarter. Their forward line let them down with not enough support for Brown. They must rectify this if they are to topple the Swans. The midfield will tell the story in this contest with Brisbane’s midfields having more flair, but the Swans have the grunt. With Barry and Kennelly missing, the Swans defence is light on, which highlights the need for Brennan and Copeland to take advantage. In a tight contest, Brisbane will hold on to 8^th spot for another week.

West Coast should easily account for Richmond at Subiaco with the Tigers down on big man strength. Dean Cox is a must for being dream team captain this week.

The Hawks and Port do battle at Launceston, with a big prize for the winner being a certain top four finish. The Power will go into this game with their strongest team all season and will try and run the Hawks off their legs. It’s sure to be a free-flowing game with both teams likely to run with one tagger. Hawthorn’s forwards can certainly take hold of Port’s defence given decent conditions, but Port’s offensive midfield can definitely throw the Hawks of their game. Both teams have a great record at the ground and is the toughest match of the round to tip, but I’ve tipped the Hawks in a tight one.

The Kangaroos have the daunting task of stopping the Geelong juggernaut. The Roos couldn’t take advantage of the numerous chances gifted to them last week against the Eagles and come up against a team playing at the top of their game. The Roos just don’t look the same team that thumped the Hawks three weeks ago. The Cats blew off the Crows last week and are taking scalps at will. This week they return to their favourite ground where they punish teams for fun with ease. This will be no exception as the Cats defence will hold the Roos to 12 goals, kick 20+ themselves and win comfortably.

The loser of the Adelaide vs. Bulldogs game is done for the year. The Dogs have named their best team in a number of weeks and have the running power to trouble the Crows. However, they haven’t beaten the Crows at AAMI since 2001 and have rarely even threatened them there. The Crows have been disappointing all year and the coach has to carry the can for that. Give them there heads for God’s sake and stop restricting their flair. They can do some damage in September, but they have to get their first. I think it will be a close game, but I don’t see Adelaide losing another game at home.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

3 – Port Adelaide 4 – Geelong, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, St.Kilda, Sydney, Western Bulldogs 5 – Adelaide, Brisbane, Collingwood, Essendon, West Coast 6 – Carlton, Fremantle 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

COLLINGWOOD 87-76 Melbourne ESSENDON 113-110 Carlton ST.KILDA 105-94 Fremantle WESTCOAST 113-61 Richmond

BRISBANE103-91 Sydney

HAWTHORN 89-118 Port Adelaide

Kangaroos 94-129 GEELONG ADELAIDE91-74 Western Bulldogs

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Line (-8.5) BRISBANE Win GEELONG Points (-27.5) What I enjoy about this forum is the variety of ways people go about picking winners. People point out things that I’ve overlooked or ignored that challenge me and the way I pick winners. We had a great weekend two weeks ago where everyone made a killing. This week we only have 3 people so far offering their opinion over the weekend. The more input we have, the more possibilities we have to make a dollar. Good luck to those having a punt over the weekend, especially those who are expressing their opinions on AFL.

[AFL Football - Round 19 (August 12th - 14th)]

[AFL Football - Round 19 (August 12th - 14th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 19 (August 12th - 14th) There appears to be plenty of lob-sided games this weekend, but I’ve found it incredibly difficult to find winners with as much surety as previous weeks.

The Pies have to keep knocking over these poor teams to make the top 4. Richmond has been honest for most games, but inevitably, they get blown away in the end. Historically, the Tigers have always been able to beat the Magpies at least once a season in the past 15 years. Brown and Richardson loom as the main dangers to Collingwood who were anything but impressive last week. The running power of the Pies should get them over the line, but the windy conditions won’t make it a pretty game.Troy Simmonds is a late withdrawl for the Tigers, whilst Fraser is in doubt for the Pies.

The Lions have been awesome in the last 6 weeks highlighted by their annihilation of Collingwood and confining the Kangaroos to 5 goals last week. One concern from last week’s performance was Brown’s domination on the score sheet kicking 55% of their score. They got very little out of Brennan, Copeland, Mills and Hooper. This will play into Hawthorn’s hands, who have closed down Brown successfully in the past. As far as personnel goes, the Hawks are far more experienced than their previous meeting with the injection of Crawford, Brown, Vandenberg, Smith and Dixon who weren’t there in Round 1. I’m sure the weather will have an impact on the game and in a 50-50 game, I lean to Brisbane to win, but the Hawks can match them in every area.

Port Adelaide will smash Carlton at AAMI.

The Dogs can’t let this one slip against the Demons at the Dome. With Johnson less than 50-50 to play, it will be interesting to see where the goals will come from, but the Demons defence is not the best. Amazingly, the Demons have just about all of their top tier players lining up, but only a handful of second tier players fit to play and are using 9 players outside their best 22. It was close last time these teams met, but the Dogs have too much to lose and should win by a few goals.

Sydney and St.Kilda are close to full strength for their game at Telstra Stadium. The Saints have had the wood over Sydney of late and it should be another arm wrestle this time around. Two very evenly matched teams with the result to be decided by which forward line functions the best. It won’t be a disaster if the Saints lose, but they’ll be under pressure to make the top 8. The Swans have no excuses and should hold out the Saints whose fade outs in recent weeks have become chronic.

The game between the Kangaroos and West Coast is up for grabs and I haven’t a clue how to assess it. The winner will lock up a top 4 spot and I’ll watch with interest.

Geelong host Adelaide in a game that will be closer than most people think. The Crows will close the game down, and a team hasn’t done that to the Cats for a while. Both midfields are evenly matched, and a lot will hinge on the fitness of Bock and Rutten. The Cats just keep rolling along, but may be susceptible up forward if the rain falls in the lead up to the match. The Cats should get home, but only narrowly. Dockers will be pushed in the 1^st half by the Bombers but should pull away after half time and win well. The Bombers were absolutely dreadful last week, and couldn’t perform that poorly again. Number of players missing from best 22’s

1 – Sydney 3 – Geelong, St.Kilda 4 – Essendon, Hawthorn, Kangaroos, West Coast 5 – Brisbane, Port Adelaide 6 – Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Western Bulldogs 7 – Carlton, Fremantle 9 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Richmond 67-79 COLLINGWOOD Hawthorn 78-112 BRISBANE PORT ADELAIDE 124-60 Carlton Melbourne82-101 WESTERN BULLDOGS

SYDNEY109-80 St.Kilda

Kangaroos 98-92 WESTCOAST

GEELONG117-71 Adelaide FREMANTLE 85-70 Essendon

Suggested Bets

BRISBANE Win SYDNEY Margin 1-39 GEELONG Margin 1-39

All the best with your punting this weekend.

[AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)]

[AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) From July 9th,

Just for the record...I went thru the ladder and this is what I came up with...

1	Geelong	22	18	3	1	2399	1805	74	132.9
4	Collingwood	22	15	6	1	2111	2003	62	105.3
6	Adelaide	22	14	6	2	1983	1793	60	110.5
2	West Coast	22	13	6	3	2068	1868	58	110.7
3	Hawthorn	22	14	7	1	2092	1925	58	108.6
10	Sydney	22	14	8	0	1975	1834	56	107.6
7	W Bulldogs	22	11	8	3	2244	2243	50	100.0
5	Kangaroos	22	11	9	2	2110	2107	48	100.1
9	Port Adel	22	11	11	0	2146	2174	44	98.7
12	St Kilda	22	9	11	2	1910	2021	40	94.5
8	Essendon	22	9	12	1	2194	2233	38	98.2
11	Fremantle	22	9	13	0	2183	2179	36	100.1
13	Bris Lions	22	7	13	2	1945	2061	32	94.3
15	Melbourne	22	4	18	0	1967	2289	16	85.9
16	Richmond	22	3	17	2	2019	2378	16	84.9
14	Carlton	22	4	18	0	2212	2645	16	83.6

(Didn't bother with margins, just win/loss...)

There's also a few 'draws' in there that I think are tough to predict...

Dogs/WC @ TD. Dogs/St. K @ TD. Brisbane/Roos @ 'Gabba (although Kangas still haven't lost to a team outside the 8, right Bjv :ok ) Kangas/WC @ TD. Geelong/Crows @ Geelong (neither here nor there really) St. K./WC @ TD Dogs v. Hawthorn @ TD Coll v. Crows @ TD. (Again, means not much anyway...)

So....Dogs only have to win 1 of the 3 iffies to make it (WC, St. K., Hawks)...provided they win this week of course. I've got the Roos making it regardless (with 12 wins), with Port and Ess definately out, and the Saints the only rough chance if they win both games v. Doggies and WC.

Interesting that we both have Collingwood in 2nd, and the same top 4. :clap

Now, to go check for some decents odds...on something! :unsure

Oh, I see a real chance that Richmond don't finish on the bottom tho...Seen Carlton as high as 12.00, Melbourne 8.00...

TazaD , you are an absolute legend. I hope you had something on it.

[AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 18 (August 3rd - 5th) Bulldogs v Saints

It’s the end of the line for the loser of this game and the loser wouldn’t deserve to make it anyway. The Dogs have met the 2 best teams in the comp. in the last fortnight at their weakest. With West, Cross and Grant back in the line-up at least gives them a fighting chance to compete against the Saints. The Bulldogs starts have been a feature of their season, but 2 and 3 goal opening quarters doesn’t win them any games. But once again, I see the Dogs getting blown away by St. Kilda’s talls. The Saints are getting good supply into their forwards and are starting to score well, but they did not impress last weekend and will miss Luke Ball. A better showing by the Dogs is expected but the Saints will be too strong.

Blues v Magpies

After a terrific showing last week, the Blues front up this week with their weakest team for the year. Injuries for Carlton equals uncompetitive. The initial buzz after the Pagan dismissal will receive a reality check once the Pies are done with them. The Pies needed a kick in the pants before the finals, but last week’s effort was as bad as any defeat they’ve had in the Malthouse era. However, their percentage should return to pre-Brisbane levels after dispatching the ‘tankers’ in the next 3 weeks. Only Fevola and Waite stand in the way off a hiding with the Pies dominant all over the field with Rocca and Cloke expected to kick plenty of goals.

Crows v Power

It’s the last stand for the Crows to try to pinch a spot in the finals. They won’t find it easy against a Port Adelaide team full of confidence. However, the Crows can apply the clamps to free-running midfields and Port fit that bill. Even though Port have been kicking huge scores in the past month, their forward line doesn’t look that good without Tredrea there and one the slightly deficient Crow defence could cope with. The head to head record is also damning for Port over the last few years. I’m confident the Crows can hold the Cornes and Burgoyne boys through the midfield and kick a winning score against a suspect Port Adelaide defence.

Hawks v Bombers

This clash always produces something special, but a lot rides on the result of this one. The Hawks have been down a little in the last month, but have faced up to some decent teams and come of second best. Their midfield hasn’t been as accountable and as a result putting pressure on their defence. Mitchell and Crawford are in doubt for the game which won’t help their cause. The Bombers are hanging onto the coat tails of the top 8 courtesy of all those narrow victories through the mid-season. Fletcher and Lucas are in doubt and the Bombers recent record at the MCG is woeful. The Hawks handled the Bombers easily in their first meeting and although I’m expecting a tighter tussle, the Hawks must prevail.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

3 – Essendon, Geelong, Kangaroos, Sydney, West Coast 4 – Brisbane, Hawthorn 5 – Adelaide, Collingwood, Port Adelaide, St.Kilda 6 – Carlton, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Western Bulldogs 76-107 ST.KILDA Carlton 70-90 COLLINGWOOD GEELONG 117-63 Richmond BRISBANE117-97 Kangaroos

ADELAIDE 84-124 Port Adelaide

Melbourne 67-109 SYDNEY

HAWTHORN 84-83 Essendon WEST COAST 94-87Fremantle

Suggested Bets

ST.KILDA Margin 1-39 ADELAIDE Margin 1-39 HAWTHORN Win

Have a good weekend on the punt.

[AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)]

[AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Late changes Hawthorn In: Dowler,Tuck, Murphy Out: Franklin, Mitchell, Thorp Kangaroos In: Edwards Out: Wells

[AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Bulldogs v Eagles

Tonight is a great opportunityfor the Dogs to exert some pressure on the top 6 by knocking over the Eagles. They’ve lost some key players, but have enough talent to threaten the visitors. They need a decent start (unlike last week), and average 27 points at the Dome in 1^st quarters whilst the Eagles are usually slow starters away from Subiaco. I’m not getting carried away with the Eagles yet after falling over the line against an ordinary Swans outfit. Brad Johnson shoulders the responsibility once more to kick a bag and desperately needs some support from Darcy, Higgins and Murphy. The Eagles have the midfield depth to stretch the Dogs and Dean Cox should dominate this game. I fancy the Eagles, but it shall be close.

Dockers v Cats

There has been a lot of support for the Dockers to topple the Cats here with plenty of justification. They’ve been better than the formline suggests culminating in their terrific win in Adelaide. Their last home game against the Kangaroos was a cracker and copped too much flak for their defeat Both teams were great that day and the Roos were lucky enough to be in front at the siren. Geelong’s midfield will severely test them with plenty of leg speed and precise field kicking, something the Dockers lack. The Dockers scoring has lifted recently, but comes up against the best defence in the business. The Cats might have a slight drop off for this game, but should extinguish the Dockers finals hopes.

Magpies v Lions

The hard working Pies will face a rejuvenated Brisbane team making a late bid for September action. The Pies output each week is very consistent and will need to continue to match the Lions’ midfield in good form. Brown will pose some headaches, but Prestigiacomo or Wakelin will make his life difficult. Cloke has been in good form for the Pies and is the key for the Pies. Pies are only averaging 90 points at the MCG in their last 4 games whilst the Lions are averaging only 67 points away from home in their last 4 games. The Pies need to keep winning for the coveted top 2 finish and should win comfortably.

Hawthorn v Kangaroos

Big game in Launceston which could send the loser into a tailspin and out of top 4 contention. The Hawks were down a little last week against a St.Kilda team with it’s best team on the field for 3 years. A few shocking errors cost Hawthorn dearly through the middle stages of the match and a lot of their key runners were subdued for a lot of the night. To their credit, they finished the match well and caused some nervous moments for the Saints. The Kangaroos are in terrific form, beating teams outside the top 8, but face their stiffest test for 6 weeks. There is little between the 2 teams and the defence that performs best will win. I fancy the Hawks to continue their winning ways in Tassie, in a tight ,close-checking contest.

Essendon v Adelaide

The loser of this faces an uphill battle to make the finals. The Crows have their last 6 games against finals challengers, whilst the Bombers still have 2 trips to Perth to make, but have 2 games against tankers. The power forwards from both teams hold the key to the result of this game. McGregor and Stevens will have to mind Lloyd and Lucas, whilst Perrie, Welsh and Bock will match-up on Fletcher, McPhee and Michael. The Crows clearly have the better midfield, but their forwards never seem to capitalize on that dominance. Lloyd and Lucas are more efficient and probably won’t get the supply the Crows will. Having said that, if the Crows couldn’t beat the Saints 2 weeks ago, I find it hard to select them to beat the Bombers with all the emotions of the past week at Windy Hill.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

2 – Geelong 3 – Hawthorn, Kangaroos, St.Kilda, Sydney 4 – Essendon 5 – Collingwood, Port Adelaide, West Coast 6 – Adelaide, Brisbane, Carlton, Fremantle 7 – Richmond 8 – Melbourne, Western Bulldogs

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Western Bulldogs 92-82 WEST COAST Carlton 74-120 ST.KILDA Fremantle 96-111 GEELONG COLLINGWOOD 87-83 Brisbane

SYDNEY 111-72 Richmond

HAWTHORN 97-87 Kangaroos

ESSENDON 83-88 Adelaide PORT ADELAIDE 135-71 Melbourne

Suggested Bets

Most Disposals – D.Kerr v B.Cousins D.KERR HAWTHORN Margin 1-39 ESSENDON Win Good luck everyone.

[AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 17 (July 27th - 29th) Another one bites the dust..... Kevin Sheedy's contract won't be renewed, but will coach out the season. This will be a positive for the Bombers, and I think the Bombers will finish the season well and start by brushing aside the Crows.

[AFL Football - Round 16 (July 20th - 22nd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 16 (July 20th - 22nd)

- Denis Pagan is in his final 48 hours as coach.

Pagan sacked! Caretaker coach to be announced at 2pm. Contenders include Craig Bradley and Brett Ratten. I hope that useless Stephen Kernahan joins Pagan and leaves as well. He has presided over the worst period in the club's history yet never seems to come under the scrutiny that his subordinates do. He oversees the football department and to say the club has gone backwards in the last 3 years is stating the obvious and a direct reflection on him.

[AFL Football - Round 16 (July 20th - 22nd)]

[AFL Football - Round 16 (July 20th - 22nd)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 16 (July 20th - 22nd) The round kicks off at the Dome tonight with the Cats looking to keep their winning streak rolling aginst the Bulldogs. There isn’t a lot of pressure on the Cats to keep performing at their best with such a huge buffer zone, but the difference between the best and worse is not a lot nowadays. The Bulldogs have impressed in the last 6 weeks and are capable of the upset. Brad Johnson has a terrific recent record against the Cats and will be the key tonight, with Scarlett likely to miss. The Dogs have subdued the Cats in their last 4 games keeping them under 100 points each time. The Cats can afford to drop this, but should eventually overpower the Dogs. A low key build up to the Collingwood and Essendon this time round, but the loser faces serious consequences. The Bombers are just hanging on to the pack and need to win this game badly with a horror 6 weeks ahead. It’s not such a necessity for the Pies to win seeing they play the bottom 4 teams in the next month, but they have dropped winnable games since the Melbourne loss and haven’t be able to get on a roll. Collingwood’s midfield is clearly superior, but Lloyd and Lucas are capable of taking control of the game. Unfortunately, they won’t get enough of the footy and the Pies should win well. The Crows are the enigma of the competition. They are impossible to catch and will miss Rutten and Ricciuto. The Dockers have a decent record against the Crows at AAMI, so much so that the Crows have never scored more than 95 points against the Dockers there. However, it looks as though the change of coach at Fremantle will do little for their performance. The body language of the players and the underwhelming demeanor of the caretaker coach leads me to believe they’ll get hammered and get thrown out of the finals race. The clash of the titans at Subiaco should follow a familiar script on Saturday night. As usual the Swans are at full strength and starting to hit some good form. The Eagles are taking a big risk bringing in players that are underdone. They’d need to be 5 goals up at 3QT, because they will run out of gas as the match goes on. Hall and Kennelly are not 100%, but are needed to get the Swans up the table. I’m sticking with the Eagles to bounce back after last week’s aberration in a close one. The Saints team is their strongest for the season so far. Even with injuries, they’ve taken some big scalps so far and will take another on Saturday night. When you analyse both sides, the Saints look stronger all over the ground and the Hawks defence will struggle against Riewoldt, Gehrig, Koschitske and Milne. I think there will be plenty of scoring in this game and think the Saints will win easily. The Sunday games are self explanatory. Brisbane to spank Carlton, Richmond to hang on to Port for a while before being run over and the Roos will be tested by the Demons before overcoming them comfortably.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

3 – Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, St.Kilda, Sydney 4 – Essendon, Kangaroos, West Coast, Western Bulldogs 5 – Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond 6 – Brisbane, Port Adelaide 7 – Melbourne 8 – Fremantle

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

GEELONG 112-109 Western Bulldogs COLLINGWOOD 83-82 Essendon ADELAIDE 98-88 Fremantle ST.KILDA 90-101 Hawthorn

WEST COAST 74-93 Sydney BRISBANE109-95 Carlton Richmond 82-98 PORT ADELAIDE KANGAROOS 89-83 Melbourne

Suggested Bets

GEELONG Margin 1-39 ST.KILDA Win KANGAROOS Margin 1-39

Good luck everyone.

[AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th)]

[AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) West Coast OUT Kerr Cousins Wirrpunda Hansen Stenglein Fletcher Butler IN LeCras Staker C.Jones R.Jones Hurn McKenzie McKinley Sorry koi, couldn't find the extra 2 players in the Eagles best side.

[AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 15 (July 13th - July 15th) There are plenty of 50/50 games this week in round 15, which will seriously affect the finals race. Geelong can seal top spot if West Coast are beaten, and second spot could open right up for up to 5 teams if the Eagles falter. Percentage will be a vital factor and could mean the difference between a double chance and no home finals. The Crows travel to the Dome having won 8 of their last 10 at the venue and scoring 100+ 8 times as well. Their midfield worked perfectly last week even though they were given far too much latitude by the Hawks and their defence was superb. The Saints have their full complement in the midfield and have been solid since the break. Adelaide’s defence will only allow the Saints to kick 12-13 goals whilst the Crows should notch another ton and win comfortably. Geelong vs. Collingwood earns match of the year status and rightly so. They should both finish in the top two at season’s end. The Cats have been unsettled this week not being allowed to train at their home base and a few injury concerns as well with the Ablett brothers in doubt. They weren’t that impressive last week and only steamrolled the Bombers when they ran out of legs and numbers. The Pies just keep rolling along taking scalps at will and doing enough to get over the line. Both teams look pretty evenly matched and the Pies are the value, but I’ll be guided by Gary Ablett’s availability before making a move. My only note on the Port v West Coast game is that on the last 9 occasions West Coast have gone to AAMI, the game total has been under 180. The Lions appear to be the best bet of the round against the Demons at the Gabba. They were super against the Eagles and shouldn’t feel too threatened by what the Demons bring to the table. The Lions are only averaging 11 goals a game in their last 5, but are starting to score a bit better at home. They are a 4 goal better team at home. The Demons have a lot players injured and I’m not sure how competitive they’ll be for the rest of the season. The odds on the Bombers are a joke. The Bulldogs have their 3 best midfielders missing and won’t be able to control Lloyd and Lucas. Watson and the Johnsons will dominate the stoppages with Cooney being gloved by Peverill. There are serious consequences for the loser of this game, seeing they have difficult fixtures to finish the year. Essendon have beaten better teams than the Bulldogs in the last 6 weeks with only Fletcher and Hird missing. Cannot ignore the $2.90 on offer for the Bombers and will fall over the line like they usually do. The Sunday games look pretty straight forward with the game at Subiaco holding the most interest. The Dockers are slow starters at home winning just 2 of their 7 first quarters. However, they are a 6 goal better team at home. The Kangaroos are gliding under the radar and are in a great position to push for a top 4 finish. Winning this game will guarantee a finals spot, but a bad loss places them under pressure to keep their spot in the 8. The Dockers have to keep winning to make the finals and have the forward structure to make things difficult for the Roos. The Dockers should win by 5 goals. In summary, you could do worse than backing Collingwood and Essendon to win because surely one of them will salute and you’ll pocket a nice profit. They might both win. We’ll find out in the fullness of time.

Number of players missing from best 22’s

2 – Kangaroos 3 – Carlton, Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney 4 – Adelaide, Essendon, St.Kilda, Western Bulldogs 5 – Brisbane, Collingwood, Richmond 6 – Fremantle, Port Adelaide 7 – West Coast 8 – Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

St.Kilda 87-103 ADELAIDE GEELONG 109-88 Collingwood PORT ADELAIDE 90 -72 West Coast ESSENDON 97-113 Western Bulldogs

Melbourne 82-87 BRISBANE SYDNEY 105-77 Carlton HAWTHORN 96-84 Richmond FREMANTLE 113-80 Kangaroos

Suggested Bets

ADELAIDE Points (-13.5) BRISBANE Points (-17.5) FREMANTLE Margin 1-39 Good luck this weekend.

[AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)

I'm not sure Melbourne exactly won in style, Crisp...27 clearances to 43; 50 I50's to 59; 29 shots to 31... Typical Carlton defensive "effort"...plus they butchered more than their share of chances.

Any team that gets challenged, look as though they're gone, fight back and win running away, wins in style in my opinion, regardless of the opposition.

Oh' date=' BC...interesting you say that St. Kilda's finals hopes have been 'buried', yet you have them finishing outside the 8 by the barest of %!![/quote'] The Saints have no room to move. They need to win 6 of their last 8 to make it interesting and make up 10%. Their dicey games are against the Bulldogs and West Coast and must win both. I'm sure the Bombers will have a big enough break over the Saints to overcome when round 22 starts. The Crows are the wildcard in the lead-up to the finals. They are good, but they are inconsistent. They'll need to thump the Saints and string some wins together before I'm convinced. The Eagles have their problems and need two home finals to even make the Grand Final. Their next four weeks should tell the story, if they can't win a few, the Crows, Magpies, Kangas and Hawks could steal the march on them. The question marks on Collingwood and Hawthorn are the same. Will the young bodies hold up all season? Both have alot of experience to come back, but I'm not sure they will improve much as a result. The Pies will win at least 5 of the last 8 games and play the bottom 4 teams between rounds 17-20. The Hawks have a tough finish to the season and need to start racking up the victories now. They have been off the boil for the last month and might be having their bad patch now. Key games with finals ramifications - St.Kilda v Adelaide (TD),Bulldogs v Essendon (TD), Port v West Coast (AAMI), Geelong v Collingwood (MCG), Fremantle v Kangaroos (Subiaco).

[AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)]

[AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 14 (July 6th - July 8th) How ironic that Ben Cousins pulls a hamstring on the eve of his comeback. The footy gods have a habit of catching up with those who should have been punished, but weren’t. Some key games this weekend that should get rid off at least one finals aspirant. Tonight’s game at the Dome will severely test the Bombers. They have a tough month ahead but have got themselves into a great position and need to win 4 more games to qualify for September. It’s a momentous game with Hird’s 250^th and Ramanauskas’ return. Of their recent narrow victories, they haven’t faced a team that has been in good form. Tonight they face a team without a noticeable weakness playing at their favourite venue. There is still a doubt on Bartel, but they have numerous options through the midfield unlike their opponent. Lloyd missing hurts the Bombers big time against a star defence. The Bombers will hang with Geelong for a half, but the Cats will eventually blow them away. Collingwood were terrific last week and just came up short against the Hawks. They just didn’t get enough out of their defensive midfielders. They will face similar difficulties against the Saints especially with their tall forwards. Koschitzke and Riewoldt will be tough to handle and the Saints midfield is the best it could be. I’m a little worried about Collingwood having a downer after their last 2 matches, but they have a chance to take the Saints out of the finals race or seriously risk their own top 4 hopes. It could go either way, but the consistent scoring of the Pies has me tipping them. The top 4 chances of Port and the Bulldogs are on the line at the Dome tomorrow. The loser will be battling to make the finals. The Dogs will be happy to return to the Dome after a 6 week absence when they beat Collingwood. This match will come down to one battle. Scott West v Kane Cornes. If West is held, the Dogs are in strife particularly with key midfielders missing. Port are capable of exposing the Dogs badly, but I remember their insipid performance against Carlton at this venue 4 weeks ago and I can’t get it out of my mind. The Dogs should win an interesting battle. The Crows always seem to find a way to stay in contention. Just when you are about to right them off, they manage to win games they’re not favoured to. This week they host the Hawks who are coming off a huge win over Collingwood. Goodwin and Burton return for Adelaide and they both have great records against the Hawks. Boyle and Osborne are missing for Hawthorn and will need to use Croad up forward. It will be a low scoring game, but the Crows cannot afford to drop this and win by a few goals. The rest of the games don’t particularly interest me although I can’t see Brisbane scoring more than 8 goals against the Eagles. I don’t trust the Swans because they are playing injured players, but I still think they’ll win. I respect the Tigers and they’ll give the Kangaroos a huge run for their money. Team Strength for Round 14

Strong 92% Sydney 89% Kangaroos 88% Geelong 87% Hawthorn Weak 73% Richmond 67% Collingwood 64% Brisbane 62% Melbourne

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

Essendon 86 GEELONG 116 COLLINGWOOD 89 St.Kilda 76 WESTERN BULLDOGS 106 Port Adelaide 99 WESTCOAST 108 Brisbane 61 ADELAIDE 82 Hawthorn 87 SYDNEY 99 Fremantle 93 Carlton 93 MELBOURNE 89 Richmond 87 KANGAROOS 81

Suggested Bet

COLLINGWOOD Win WESTERN BULLDOGS Points (-12.5) SYDNEY Line (10.5)

The best of luck to you all.

[AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st)]

Re: AFL Football - Round 13 (June 29th - July 1st) A terrific round of footy awaits after the extraordinary events of the week. Melbourne’s disgraceful performance against Richmond hastened the demise of Neale Daniher. Let’s hope he isn’t the only scapegoat as the Demons head for the wooden spoon. It’s time to get rid of the downhill skiers that have plagued the Daniher era. He had the team to win a premiership, but the mental capacity of some of his leaders constantly let him down. It’s time for an easy pay cheque in the media for a couple of years for Daniher and come back bigger and better in 2010. Tonight’s game at the Dome is now too difficult to assess. The emotions of the Melbourne camp will dictate how the game is played. Melbourne have the better midfield, but will be stretched in defence. People are overlooking how important this game is to Essendon. If they lose this game, the finals become more distant looking ahead to who they face in the next month. The Bombers need a better start than they’ve got in the past 2 games and need a big contribution from Lloyd and Lucas. The Bombers should prevail but I’ll just be an interested onlooker.

The game at Skilled Stadium should show the gulf between the Cats and Sydney. The Cats are near full strength and winning as they please. The Swans are on the ropes, without their key forward and key playmaker. They will try and strangle the Cats all day but the Cats don’t have many weaknesses to exploit. The Cats aren’t high scorers at home but should restrict the Swans and win comfortably. Injuries are starting to bite at the Blues and that means blowouts. Losing Walker is a big blow, but losing Whitnall is a blessing allowing Waite to go back and stiffen their defence. The Dockers team looks strong and missing Tarrant for one week shouldn’t hamper them. Parker is back to improve their defence and allow McPharlin to run amok up forward. Pavlich will be impossible to stop with Bell and J.Carr in great form. The Dockers to win by plenty. No interest and no confidence in the Saturday night games, because they could easily go either way. Super Sunday kicks off at AAMI Stadium with Adelaide needing to keep chasing a top 4 spot against the Eagles. The Crows haven’t been able to get on a roll this season, but must now keep winning their home games. Their forward structure isn’t very reliable, only averaging 70 points at home in the last 4 games. I have been impressed with them in their last 2 games and they look to be building for September. The Eagles are missing Judd badly and it showed last week. The likes of Rosa ,Priddis and Stenglein looked like your run-of-the mill midfielders last week without Judd, Cousins and Fletcher around to take the heat of them. The Eagles attack will pose no problem for the Crows, with Adelaide to win comfortably. The Kangaroos will do whatever necessary to beat the Dogs for Glenn Archer’s 300th milestone. With poor conditions expected, it plays right into the hands of the Kangaroos who have more hardness around the ball. A crucial game in a finals context, but the Roos wont let Archer down. The Pies can’t wait for the game against the Hawks to start after the week they’ve had. Rolling the dice on Rocca was a punt that didn’t pay off and copped 2 games instead of 1. He was never going to get off and reinforces that you can hit anyone in the head in future. That lesson should have been learnt from the week earlier when Hille copped a week for a head-high hit. The Alan Didak debacle shows there are still plenty of meatheads in football. I hope he enjoyed his few hours with the Hells Angels. The Pies couldn’t afford to lose him as well as Rocca to take on the Hawks. It should be a great game and will definitely be won in the midfield. The Pies have shown in the past the can close down the Hawks and will need to do it again to win. Burns, Pendlebury, Thomas and Lockyer are in top form and will be hard for the Hawks to handle. Missing Rocca might not be such a bad thing seeing he has been anonymous in at least half of their games and gives Reid a chance to excel. It’ll be a very close game, but I think the Hawks will sneak home. I snagged a few tickets to the game and looking forward to a great contest.

Team Strength for Round 13

Strong 92% Geelong, Hawthorn 85% Essendon, Kangaroos, Port Adelaide Weak 73% Adelaide, Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond 71% Western Bulldogs, Collingwood.

Score Predictor & MY TIPS

ESSENDON 106 Melbourne 85 GEELONG 105 Sydney 80 FREMANTLE 110 Carlton 85 ST.KILDA 85 Richmond 106 Brisbane 75 PORT ADELAIDE 91 ADELAIDE 83 West Coast 92 KANGAROOS 79 Western Bulldogs 96 Collingwood 90 HAWTHORN 118

Suggested Bet

GEELONG Margin 1-39 KANGAROOS Win ADELAIDE Margin 1-39