BURNTUA CRISP
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Posts posted by BURNTUA CRISP
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Re: AFL Rd. 3. Looking back at the weekend so far, there is a nice big question mark on the Saints. I'm not so confident of them making the finals after that effort. Three games in a row at the Dome doesn't do you any favours and probably a factor that should be taken into account when punting in the future. The Dogs have wound the clock back 12 months and with Griffen, Cooney and Cross in top form, they'll be hard to beat. They have a nice draw in the next 3 weeks and need to take advantage of it. A terrific game at the Dome yesterday with the Hawks overpowering the Roos. At the end of the day, the Hawks key forwards got the job done and the Roos forwards were disappointing. Brad Sewell is becoming an accomplished midfielder and following in the footsteps of Brett Kirk. The Dockers own the Eagles. Simple as that. Pavlich certainly a big game player and a top 5 player in the league. Brisbane continue to fall short against the Swans. When Brown is blanketed, they find it hard to win. Bradshaw returned to his best form booting 5, but the Lions look a bit off the mark and might fall short in the race to the finals. Essendon did the job over Carlton in an uncontested shootout. Now Carlton's supporters realise that having Judd doesn't equal wins. Not much to talk about today, with the Cats to pound Melbourne and the Pies to win narrowly over the Tigers. It's a perfect day for football in Melbourne today. The Crows are travelling nicely with their more youthful midfield performing above expectations, and I like their more attacking game style. They have the wood over Port only losing twice since 2003. Port need to perform strongly today to get some credibilty back and more importantly keep their season alive. Their defence looks poor and they don't run the ball well out of there at all. Too much depends on the Cornes and the Burgoynes for Port to win, and I don't see them winning today. Team Strength and Predictor. Geelong (83%) v Melbourne (79%), Geelong by 90 points. Richmond (84%) v Collingwood (90%), Collingwood by 18 points. Adelaide (80%) v Port Adelaide (91%), Adelaide by 15 points. Suggested Bet. Adelaide MARGIN 1-24.
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Re: AFL Rd. 3. Slim pickings this weekend by the looks with too many 50/50 games and very few games I am confident about. The Bulldogs haven't beaten the Saints at the Dome since 2002, but have started this season well. The Saints have been average in their 2 appearances and will welcome Goddard back. Saints look too big and strong up forward, but might struggle with the Dogs quick ball movement. I'll tip the Saints, but I couldn't care less about the match. The Kangaroos are one of those teams that cause Hawthorn all sorts of problems. They can successfully nullify their gun midfielders and restrict their key forwards. The Hawks have started the season well and were impressive last week. They're playing confident football whilst the Roos did what they had to last week. Hawks should narrowly get home. The Dockers have been reasonable without winning so far, but are carrying too many passengers. I've been surprised how poor their defence has been to date. Fortunately, they face a team with scoring issues and a midfield that is just going. Dockers have shown enough to suggest they can win this game, plus their recent record over the Eagles is solid. It could be a history making night tomorrow night if the Blues fail again and equal their worst losing streak in history. However, they have put a very good team on the park and should be strong enough to overcome the Bombers. The loss of Lucas for Essendon has exposed their forward line badly and with their midfield is clearly inferior to Carlton's, they are going to have to kick a huge score to win. I just don't see Essendon doing it. Brisbane jumped out of the grave last week to upset Collingwood and should continue the roll by beating Sydney. We've now established that the Sydney team that plays at the SCG, and the team that plays anywhere else are vastly different. Interesting to note the total game score has been under 180 points in their last 11 meetings. It'll be close but the Lions should prevail with their superior midfield. Team Strength and Predictor. W.Bulldogs (90%) v St.Kilda (90%), St.Kilda by 22 points. North Melb.(84%) v Hawthorn (79%), Hawthorn by 20 points. West Coast (91%) v Fremantle (77%), Fremantle by 6 points. Essendon (76%) v Carlton (82%), Essendon by 8 points. Brisbane (80%) v Sydney (74%), Sydney by 10 points. Suggested Bets. Fremantle WIN Brisbane MARGIN 1-39 All the best.
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Re: AFL Rd. 2. Tough weekend on the punt so far with Adelaide overwhelming the Eagles and Hawthorn bringing their A game to Subiaco. The game in Sydney is tough to judge. The Swans were a totally diferent team at the SCG last year pumping any team that ventured there. Port were good last week without winning and can definitely provide the upset, but the game doesn't appeal punting wise. The Bombers face mission impossible against the Cats. Their new found speed will trouble the Cats at times, but the Cats need a tough hit out seeing as they have the bye next week. The Cats will win but by what margin is hard to assess, although the have won their last 6 matches at the Dome by an average of 75 points. It's funny listening to all those fans who think that Richmond will beat the Kangaroos today. Let's face it, Richmond didn't beat much last week and face a hardened unit today. I'll forgive the Kangaroos for one poor effort, but they need to watch the Tigers forwards closely. Interesting to note that in the last 8 clashes between thes two teams at the MCG, there has been no winning margin over 40 points. Team Strength - Tip - Predictor - Suggested Bets. Sydney (76%) v Port Adelaide (91%) - Sydney - Port Adelaide by 12 points - No Bet. Geelong (80%) v Essendon (77%) - Geelong - Geelong by 56 points - No Bet. Richmond (84%) v North Melb.(85%) - North Melb. - Richmond by 17 points - North Melb. Points (-12.5) Good luck.
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Re: AFL Rd. 2. Round 2 is upon us, and if history teaches us anything, we'll have 4 unbeaten teams on Sunday night. A very difficult round to find clear cut winners, which makes it challenging to make a few extra dollars. I'm steering clear of the game at the Gabba. Hard to know what to make of the Lions last week because the Eagles didn't impress me much. The six day break after the longest trip in football doesn't fill me with confidence. The Lions have only won 3 of their last 9 at the Gabba. The Pies were workmanlike as usual last week with Malthouse conserving his midfielders throughout the game until the final 40 minute onslaught. Won their first game against the Lions at the Gabba last year and look awfully hard to beat. They are a great travelling team and are always competitive. MelbourneFC were woeful last week and have to lift. Beat the Dogs soundly last year at the Dome when both teams were undermanned. They've also beaten the Dogs the last 4 time they've met at the MCG. Melbourne haven't significantly improved their team and have plenty of talent on the sidelines. No excuses here for the Dogs with almost a full strength line up on the park. They must win games like this to be taken seriously and look to have the game to undo Melbourne once more. Adelaide go in favourites against the Eagles and will still be smarting after not being able to put the Dogs away last week, I noticed there wasn't as much midfield defensive pressure last week which isn't a hallmark of a Neil Craig coached team. They don't have a great record against the Eagles, but must win regularly at home to entertain any thoughts of involvement in September. The Eagles have a nice streak going against the Crows and will be confident going in. 13 goals should win this contest and I think the Crows might just sneak home. St.Kilda are on a 9 game winning streak against Carlton and that will continue at the Dome. No reason why the Saints can't notch 20 goals here after last week's submission match against the Swans. Carlton's team is bolstered with Fisher and Hampson back, but their defence is their weakness with Riewoldt, Koschitzke and Gehrig ready to take advantage. The Dockers were all right last week, but fell away in the last quarter. They seem to lose a lot of games in Melbourne between 15-35 points. Back in Perth, they won 8 of 12 last year and the only games they lost were to teams that finished in the top 4. They only lost to good teams at home. The Hawks were clinical last week, but the game has to be disregarded. Their record at Subiaco and record on their travels is surely more relevant. They've won 1 of their last 7 in Perth and 2 from their last 15 interstate (disregarding Tasmania). The Hawks have the game to beat the Dockers. Problem is they leave their game at home when they travel. The Dockers to win comfortably. Team Strength- Tip - Predictor - Suggested Bets. Brisbane (82%) v Collingwood (88%) - Collingwood - Collingwood by 27 points - No Bet. Melbourne (83%) v W.Bulldogs (94%) - W.Bulldogs - W.Bulldogs by 3 points - No Bet. Adelaide (80%) v West Coast (89%) - Adelaide - Adelaide by 6 points - Adelaide Margin 1-39. St.Kilda (84%) v Carlton (85%) - St.Kilda - St.Kilda by 45 points - No Bet. Fremantle (77%) v Hawthorn (72%) - Fremantle - Fremantle by 12 points - Fremantle Win. Good luck.
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Re: AFL Rd. 1. North Melbourne - 5 of their best 22 missing and team strength of 83%. - Main task will be to close down Stanton and Watson from getting too much footy. Definitely have the stoppers do do this. - Have not lost to Essendon since 2001. Essendon - 6 of their best 22 missing and team strength of 79%. - Interesting to see who Fletcher plays on because Thompson has given him some fearful hidings over the years. - Knights has gambled on speed to upset North and will be reliant on Lucas and Lloyd to score 10 goals between them. It's hard to ignore North's 2007 accomplishments and to see them being stretched too much by Essendon. Their hardness is the midfield will be too difficult to counter. Predictor - North by 3 goals. Tip - North Suggested Bet - North Win. Looking back, great to see the Dogs being carried over the line by Brad Johnson. He must be the second greatest Bulldog behind E.J and still plenty of football left in him. Overall, a great game of football and the Crows certainly look as though they are in good shape. I'm glad I didn't waste one second of my life watching St.Kilda vs. Sydney. The less said the better. West Coast have perfected 'heart attack' football. Keeping the ball live through handball under pressure certainly keeps the viewers on the edge of their seats. The Eagles still look formidable, but it looks difficult to sustain over 4 quarters. The Lions fought back well on the back of Brown, but he didn't get much help, particularly early on. MelbourneFC have started 2008 in the worst possible way and the coach has to take the blame. The players looked confused and whatever gameplan they had, it failed miserably. They have a week to turn it around and need to be competitive against the Dogs or their season will spin out of control. Go Kangas!
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Re: AFL Rd. 1. Collingwood - 3 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 86%. - Midfield depth will be tested, but their midfield is still better than the Dockers. - Defence doesn't look great, but they just need to concentrate on Pavlich to put a handbrake on their scoring. Fremantle - 4 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 87%. - They need to find a way of replacing Hasleby, preferably someone who is quick and can get 25 possessions a game. - Defence is their strong point, but will have their hands full with Collingwood's variety up front. I think it will be similar to last year's game at the MCG, where the Pies kept them at arm's length all night for a narrow victory. Predictor - Collingwood by 1 goal Tip - Collingwood St.Kilda - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 76%. - A few surprising omissions with L.Fisher and Fiora missing, but their midfield and forward line look very powerful. - Their defence might struggle against Sydney's forward line, but knowing how these two teams will try and choke each other in the midfield, there wont be much quality ball delivered to the forwards. Sydney - 5 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 81%. - Plenty of experience missing and look pretty fragile in the ruck. - Goodes and Kirk need to control the midfield to be a realistic chance of winning. The Saints play 2/3rd's of their matches at the Dome this year and must take advantage of this to finish top 4. The Swans lost comfortably in both their games at the Dome last year and will stuggle again to beat the Saints. I know it wont be pretty. That's a certainty. Predictor - St.Kilda by 1 point. Tip - St.Kilda West Coast - Cannot put a better team on the park. - Interesting to see how the midfield functions and how they'll combat Brisbane's runners. - This game will give us a fair reflection on which direction the Eagles are heading. Their forward line holds a clear advantage over Brisbane's defence. Brisbane - McGrath the the only big name missing for Brisbane. - Good to see Bradshaw back to take the pressure off Brown. Brennan may be used in defence if they start to struggle. - Brisbane's midfield is just about the best in the game and work very hard defensively. Kerr has to be stopped for the Lions to prevail. Home ground advantage has me leaning to West Coast, but it will be a cliffhanger. Predictor - West Coast by 1 goal. Tip - West Coast Western Bulldogs - Team strength of 94% and have their best 19 playing. - They have a poor record against Adelaide, but with Johnson playing game 300, they'll do everything possible to get the victory. - Minson in the forward line could be an error with Rutten or Bock running of him all day. Having Griffen back will lift the Dogs big time. Adelaide - 4 of their best 22 missing and team strength of 84%. Knights and Massie will be missed. - Solid back 6 that will be difficult to counter, but a forward line that will struggle to kick 100 points. - Very light on in the ruck department. I bet they wished they kept Hudson now. Crows have been in top form throughout the preseason, whilst the Dogs have shown little. The Crows need to take advantage of their good draw early and should take take the points. Predictor - Adelaide by 2 goals. Tip - Adelaide Hawthorn - 5 of their best 22 missing, including 4 of their best 10 and team strength of 71%. - Not much midfield depth to speak of and alot of pressure placed onto Mitchell, Sewell and Bateman. Their running power is significantly reduced because of their suspensions. - Defence will be at full stretch trying to combat a full strength Melbourne forward line. Melbourne - 6 of their best 22 missing with team strength of 78%. - Defence looks fragile against Hawthorn's monsters not forgetting the introduction of Williams and Rioli at ground level. - Best way of winning is to blanket Mitchell and Sewell which will stop the supply to his forwards. If they can pull this off, the Demons will win. Hawks need to get of to a winning start, because their next month is horrendous. Hawthorn vs Melbourne are always interesting games and the underdog has a great record. Predictor - Hawthorn by 2 points. Tip - Hawthorn Suggested Bets - Collingwood Win, St.Kilda Margin (1-39). Good luck to you all.
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Re: AFL Rd. 1. Carlton v Richmond Welcome to what will be the over-hyped game of 2008. Juddmania has run wild on Melbourne and everyone is fed up with it, even Carlton supporters. Just because you have a great player, it doesn't translate into you becoming a great team. Just ask Bobby Skilton. Rumours of Nick Stevens missing the game will be bad news for the Blues. Carlton need Judd and Stevens both playing to be even competitive in any game. Blues have 6 of their best 22 missing with major deficiencies in the ruck and defence. You had to laugh at Ratten saying Fevola is in career best form. His last major outing was being held to a single goal by the much maligned Zac Dawson. Richmond are holding Coughlan back, but have put a strong team on the park. Have to be wary of them because they did burn a few with that woeful effort in the NAB Cup. Captain Kane Johnson has a good record on Judd and that battle will be a key to the result. Their forward line also looks solid with Richardson and Brown set for a big night. It's just a difficult match to assess and I'm not particularly interested in it. But for the sake of making a tip, I'll pick the Blues. From a tanking point of view, it has to be a draw. Predictor - Richmond by 2 goals. Team Strength - Carlton 77%, Richmond 82%. Tip - Carlton. Port Adelaide v Geelong Grand final rematch that has snuck under the radar. Port are without Wilson and Pettigrew which hampers their defence. Otherwise, almost full strength. Hopefully, Tredrea is back to full fitness, because he let Port down last year. Port have psycholgical issues with Geelong not only from the Grand Final, but from the corresponding clash last year. Geelong's first half of that game was arguably the best of the season. Port's midfield is terrific and they'll be on the offensive all night. Trying to shut down Geelong's guns just plays into their hands. The Cats will miss Ottens who was the architect of getting them into the Grand Final and leaves Blake with a huge responsibility against Brogan and Lade. Hawkins fills the shoes of N.Ablett had only needs to reproduce his output to keep Geelong potent. I find it difficult to see Port keeping Geelong to a losing score and Port being allowed to kick a winning score against the league's best defence. Predictor - Geelong by 3 goals. Team Strength - Port 86%, Geelong 81%. Tip - Geelong. Suggested Bets - Geelong Line (-7.5)
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Re: AFL Football - Pre Season Discussion For what it's worth, here is my ladder prediction. 1.Geelong - Wont be as dominant as last year, but it's hard seeing them drop more than 6 games. Mooney needs to stay injury free and is the key for more success. 2.Adelaide - Should get off to a flyer, with a sweet draw early on. Their poor home form last year cost them dearly, and are always going to win 4 or 5 on the road. 3.St.Kilda - Top class midfield and forward line. Wont win a flag unless Lyon decides to remove the defensive mindset. Their injury curse could also be a hinderance. 4.Collingwood - They'll keep introducing their youth which means they probably wont improve that much. They got the wobbles towards the end of last year and needed Buckley and Clement back in the team to right the ship. They'll be missed enormously, but the Pies should stay in the top 4. 5.Sydney - 2008 will be the last hurrah for the Swans. They must make every post a winner now because the bulk of their squad are on their last legs. Losing Malceski has done them no favours. Still a good enough squad to cause any team headaches. 6.Hawthorn - I expect a slow start for them this season with players being suspended and some having a poor preparation. Showed last year they can match it with any team and can finish a game with 15 minutes of brilliance. They'll be doing their best work towards the end of the season. 7.Kangaroos - Just can't leave them out of the eight. Not brilliant anywhere on the ground, but just seem to keep getting the job done. they wont sneak under the radar this year. Harvey needs to have another big year. 8.West Coast - I don't see all the doom and gloom that everyone sees with Cousins and Judd gone. Will be more vulnerable especially away from home, but still have enough class to make the eight. Might need a year or so to re-establish their midfield to were it was. 9.Port Adelaide - Everything fell into place last year and got lucky in the last 7 weeks to make the Grand Final. A heavy reliance on the Cornes and Burgoynes to keep them in games and I'm not a fan of their defence. Will concede some big scores away from home. 10.Fremantle - Fall into the same category as St.Kilda last year. A new coach trying to get a new message across, with it taking half a season for it to sink in. If they lose Pavlich, they're gone. 11.Brisbane - Should get off to a good start early in the season, but hit the wall in the middle and struggle from there on. Bradshaw back should take some pressure of Brown, but he might be needed more to stiffen the defence. 12.Western Bulldogs - Need to rebuild their reputation after an horrific second half of last year. I think more teams play their style of football from 2006 better than they do now. Griffin is the key to the whole side. He must fire for the Dogs to improve. Class talls still a problem. 13.Essendon - Have a good spine, but have too many players that are too similar. The injection of speed might help lift them up the table, but Stanton needs all the help he can get. Have a tough fixture in the first half of the season. 14.Melbourne - Don't have enough class players to cause damage to the top teams, but still should be able to win 8 or 9 games. Need to get games into the kids as quickly as possible, because I don't think they'll be down for too long. 15.Richmond - Wallace decreed when he walked into Punt Road that he wanted the Tigers to kick 16 goals a game. Just throw caution to wind and you might be surprised what can be achieved. Lost to alot of good teams narrowly last year and I expect them to win 7 or 8 games, by being adventurous. 16.Carlton - Still some pain to endure for the Blues. I don't see them protecting Judd like the Eagles did and he's going to carry a heavy burden all season. Staring four consecutive years of priority picks in the face. I already know I'll be wiping egg of my face after round 22, but you have to put your proverbials on the chopping block at some stage, and I'll cop it on the chin if this whole prediction thing goes pear shaped. Bring it on!
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Re: AFL Football - Pre Season Discussion How could you forget that brilliant West Australian goal sneak, Ken Judge. He went to the the Bears after the Hawks were done with him. Coached the Hawks who were on the rise until the Eagles tripled his pay packet to coach them. Not a great move in hindsight going down as the Eagles worst performed coach. Buckenara coached unsuccessfully at the Swans and was replaced by Barassi.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Grand Final - AAMI Stadium Adelaide (398) $1.72 Fav. Another powerful line-up named and they match-up well against the Saints. They've found it difficult to deliver the knockout blow in the last 2 weeks, but managed to hold on in both. Will need a lift from Goodwin and McLeod, who were average last week, to get them over the line. St.Kilda (424) $2.13 Saints have won their last 2 in Adelaide against the Crows and are fielding their strongest line-up of the pre-season. Losing Hudghton isn't a big deal and Gehrig doesn't fire interstate. Hot conditions wont suit the Saints, but they have enough stoppers to curtail the Crows runners. Will be a close game, but I fancy the Crows to take the silverware. They've clearly been the best team pre-season. Those to consider for the Michael Tuck medal are Edwards and Johncock for the Crows and Sam Fisher for the Saints.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Ratings for NAB Cup Semi Finals. Telstra Dome on Friday night. St.Kilda (458) $1.70 Fav. Inclusions - Riewoldt, Hayes, Harvey, Ball, King, Schneider. Sidelined - Koschitzke, Goddard, Maguire, Hudghton, Gehrig, R.Clarke, Dempster. Essendon (475) $2.15 Inclusions - Dempsey, Johns. Sidelined - Lloyd, Fletcher, McPhee, Lovett, Lovett-Murray, Winderlich, Welsh, Dyson, Gumbleton. There is no logical match up for Riewoldt who should have a big night if he is fully fit. Sam Fisher should take Lucas, but both defences look light on. The Bombers leg speed will worry the Saints, but St.Kilda's midfield looks way too classy. It should be a good game, but the Saints should advance. AAMI Stadium on Saturday night. Adelaide (407) $1.63 Fav. Inclusions - Burton, Shirley. Sidelined - Bassett, Hentschel, Biglands, Gill, Jericho. Hawthorn (498) $2.20 Inclusions - Roughead, Ladson, Guerra, Croad, Dew. Sidelined - Crawford, Brown, Sewell, Bateman, McGlynn. I'm expecting Hawthorn to rest one of their KPP for this game, whether it be Roughead, Franklin or Gilham. The Hawks midfield lacks the depth to compete with Adelaide's rotations. Adelaide will rely on their gun midfielders to fill the void up forward to kick a winning score, but Hawthorn's defence has been miserly so far in the NAB Cup. I expect the Crows to win by 4 or 5 goals.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Interesting weekend just passed, and some interesting odds on offer to win the NAB Cup. Adelaide $3.25 (Centrebet, IASBET) St.Kilda $3.40 (Betfair) Hawthorn $4.50 (Betfair) Essendon $4.60 (SportingBet) Hawthorn's awful record at AAMI leads me to thinking the Crows should qualify for the Grand Final. The Crows have a 6 goal advantage up their sleeve over Essendon and St.Kilda, to get the home advantage in the Grand Final. The Semi Final at Telstra Dome revolves around the fitness of Nick Riewoldt. With Koschitzke, Hudghton and Gehrig missing, the Bombers wont have a better opportunity to beat the Saints. My ratings seem to be holding up pretty well getting 9 winners for 12 games. I've been betting the best rated teams at level stakes, and even if I don't get another winner, I've locked in a nice profit already. I'm wondering whether to use to the proceeds to back Adelaide and Essendon to win the NAB Cup in the day or so before the teams are announced. Some input from my learned friends would be appreciated.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup Ratings for NAB Quarter Finals. Western Bulldogs (463) 2.10 - Lost a few players from last week, but still fielding a decent side. Return trip from Darwin may be a factor. Essendon (473) 1.72 Fav. - Fletcher and Stanton unlikely to play and will be backing their leg speed to beat the Dogs. St.Kilda (532) 2.05 - Team not significantly improved since last week. Have a game style that might upset the Cats midfield. Geelong (561) 1.75 Fav. - Resting their stars with the midfield weakened. Will welcome back Corey and Enright. Tend to struggle in Canberra. Carlton (461) 2.05 - Fisher a big loss in attack. Waite will stay in a defence which already looks frail. Same rating as last week. Hawthorn (460) 1.75 Fav. - Slightly improved team with Brown back. Have a significant midfield advantage, but need to put the score on the board. Adelaide (405) - Had the best win of week 1 and fielding a powerful line up again. Have the midfield superiority, but their forward line looks the weak link. Fremantle (448) - Midfield weakened with Hasleby gone, but play well at AAMI Stadium. I expect a low scoring game with defences on top.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup NAB Cup - Sunday In Launceston. Hawthorn (475) $1.11 Fav. - 9 of their best 26 missing, with their defence hard hit and with Lewis expected to be a late withdrawl. - Williams replaces Roughead in the forward line and instantly gives it an added dimension. - Midfield is strong, but will use plenty of youngsters through the middle during the match. - Lost their last 2 games in Launceston in the NAB Cup. Have a poor recent record against the Swans. - Should beat the Swans, but you rarely see a blowout in Launceston. Sydney (635) $6.25 - 14 of their best 26 missing, including 12 of their best 14. - No pre-season win in the NAB Cup since 2002, with an average losing margin of 42 points. - Obviously assessing their youth and shielding their stars. Some of their youngsters must start showing something and today is the perfect stage. At Subiaco Oval. Fremantle (434) $1.23 Fav. - 6 of their best 26 missing with Bell and Black the big names missing. - A much stronger line-up than they played in Round 22. Obviously don't want to play in Albany next week. - Full strength defence and attack. Hard to see them being stretched by the Eagles. West Coast (546) $4.05 - 9 of their best 26 missing, including 6 of their best 10. - Team looks very similar to the one that got smashed by Port in the middle of last season. - Forward line looks strong, but missing to many midfielders.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup NAB Cup - Saturday. At Geelong. Geelong (485) 1.42 Fav. - 7 of their best 26 missing, with their midfield and defence weakened. - Look to have Melbourne's measure all over the ground and will have a full house right behind them. Melbourne (520) 2.80 - 10 of their best 26 missing with their defence being the most affected. - Recent record in Geelong is pretty good. with a win and a draw in their last 2 games. At AAMI Stadium. Port Adelaide (529) 1.83 Fav. - 8 of their best 26 missing, including 5 of their best 6, with the Cornes and Burgoyne brothers sitting out. - Look a bit shallow in the midfield, but if they can get inside 50 enough, the forward line should outpoint Carlton's defence. Carlton (461) 1.95 - 8 of their best 26 missing, but only 2 of their best 14 missing. - Most of their good players are playing with Fevola, Waite and Fisher holding the key to victory for Carlton. On the Gold Coast. Brisbane (541) 1.30 Fav. - 12 of their best 26 missing, including 4 of their best 5. - No key defenders or key forwards playing. - Midfield is their strength. Essendon (597) 3.45 - 12 of their best 26 missing, including 7 of their best 10. - Team is inexperienced with a small defence, sub-standard midfield, and a poor forward line. - Odds are attractive seeing as both sides are decimated. In regards to last night's games, the Bulldogs game was quite interesting given the conditions. In general play, the Kangaroos weren't really in it, but the Dogs couldn't delivery the knockout blow. The miss in the second quarter by Murphy was as embarrassing a piece of play as I can recall. Murphy has Blight's miss well and truly covered now. I'm sure Eade had a few expletives ready for him at half time. The Casey Scorpions had a very solid hit out last night and have unearthed some decent talent. The battling Tigers look to be facing another long year if last night was any evidence.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup St.Kilda have made 5 late changes to their squad for the game against Richmond. Riewoldt, Baker, Dempster, Gwilt and McQualter have all failed fitness tests and wont play. Most markets have been suspended, but once they come back online, I expect Richmond to be the new favourites. My new rating for St.Kilda is now 555, up from 497.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup NAB Cup - Friday night. At the Telstra Dome. Richmond (411) $2.05 - 5 of their best 26 are missing. - Only notables missing are Coughlan and Thursfield. - Forward line at full strength and should be able to overpower St.Kilda's defence given reasonable supply. St.Kilda (497) $1.75 Fav. - 9 of their best 26 are missing. - Best forward line is intact, but have depth issues in the midfield with Hayes, Ball, Goddard and Schneider missing. - Defence without Maguire, L.Fisher, Gram and Gilbert. - Saints still have enough brilliance in the side to pinch this match, but I'm not sure they can get on top of a decent looking Richmond team for long enough to win it. In Darwin. Western Bulldogs (385) $2.13 - 4 of their best 26 are missing, with Giansiracusa and Williams the only notables. - Obviously in it to win it naming such a strong squad and good to see Griffen back. - Lack of height in their forward line might be an advantage if the conditions are wet as expected. Kangaroos (408) $1.70 Fav. - 5 of their best 26 are missing, with C.Jones and J.Smith the best of those out of the team. - Team looks every bit as strong as the team that reached the last four in '07. - Probably going into the game with one too many tall defenders, given the conditions expected. I wouldn't be surprised if the Tigers firmed a little more in the 24 hours leading into the match. Keep an eye on the weather in Darwin before taking an interest in the game. Good luck with your investments and I'll back with the rest of the ratings on Saturday.
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Re: AFL Football - NAB Cup It's nice to be back in 2008. I tried to sit through the Fremantle vs. Carlton practice match replayed on Wednesday night, but only lasted 5 minutes because I just couldn't get into it. Plenty of negativity surrounding the NAB Cup, particularly with changes to limiting the interchange use to 16 per quarter. Seems funny that the biggest whingers of this change, are the same people that couldn't give a toss about the NAB Cup. I'll be doing the ratings again for the NAB Cup which found 13 of the 15 winners last season. The key to the ratings are to get close to a full strength team on the park. Carlton hardly had an injury in last year's NAB Cup, and went on to win it. I rank the best 29 players from 1-29 then the remaining players on the list a 30. 26 players get a game in the NAB Cup so a full strength team would total 350. The weakest possible team named would total 690. I expect most teams that are having a crack will field teams with a rating of around 420-460. Collingwood (438) $1.60 Fav. - The Pies have named 19 off their best 26, with Rocca to drop out of the squad and doubts on Wakelin and Cloke. - They have key personnel missing in defence (O'Brien, Goldsack) and look weak in the ruck and not alot of depth in the midfield. - Scoring might be difficult with Rusling, Dawes and probably Rocca missing. Adelaide (406) $2.30 - The Crows have named 21 off their best 26, with their two main ruckman missing. - Midfield is virtually full strength with all their key midfielders up and running. - Scoring power has been Adelaide's weakness in recent years, but they might try a smaller forward setup rotating their midfielders. The ratings show an advantage to Adelaide and they are value at present, but they do have the midfield edge. All the best and let the games begin.
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Re: AFL Football - Prelim Finals (September 21st & 22nd) Geelong v Collingwood at the MCG
Last time they met (Round 14):Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Adelaide Tasmania Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide -
Re: AFL Football - Finals Week 2 (September 14th & 15th) Late Changes West Coast: In - McNamara Out - Waters Collingwood: In - Bryan Out - Fraser - Weather is dry, ground slippery and a 3 goal breeze to city end(left of screen).
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Re: AFL Football - Finals Week 2 (September 14th & 15th) West Coast v Collingwood at Subiaco
Last time they met (Round 2): West Coast 12.15.87 def. Collingwood 11.9.75 at Subiaco. Team changes since last time they met – West Coast - In: Cox, Hansen, Le Cras, Nicoski. Out: Brown, Graham, Judd, Kerr. Collingwood - In: Buckley, Clarke, Didak, Goldsack, Rusling. Out: Johnson, Licuria, Nicholls, Prestigiacomo, R.Shaw. At Subiaco this season: West Coast 9-3, Collingwood 0-1. Finals record this decade: West Coast 5-6, Collingwood 5-3. Both teams performed tremendously last week and deserves to be an even money game. I don’t think the Eagles will miss Cousins and Judd as much as people think. Cousins was closed down totally by Kane Cornes and Judd was a handicap for them. The Pies are expected to win the midfield battle, but it will be the Eagles defence that wins them the match. Glass, Hunter and B.Jones should be able to contain the Pies key forwards with their smaller defenders providing the rebound to assist the midfield. The return of Hansen is a huge bonus for the Eagles and he will need to play the game of his life to get the Eagles home, but he has a great first-up record. It will be interesting to see how the Eagles high-risk possession game through the corridor stands up against the pressure of the Pies, because if that fails their chance of winning is minimized. Dean Cox was magnificent last week against Lade and Brogan and facing Fraser and Richards this week shouldn’t daunt him. The home crowd will play their role and get the Eagles over the line in a close one. Weather conditions are damp and late changes to both teams are on the cards. Score Predictor: West Coast 88-84 Collingwood. My Tip: West Coast by 19 points. Bet: West Coast (Margin 1-39) Kangaroos v Hawthorn at the MCG Last time they met (Round 17): Kangaroos 16.12.108 def. Hawthorn 10.11.71 at Launceston. Team changes since the last time they met – Kangaroos – In: Gibson, Hansen, Lower, Wells. Out: Brown, Green, C.Jones, Whyman. Hawthorn – In: Boyle, Franklin, Mitchell, Osborne. Out: Dowler, McGlynn, Murphy, Tuck. At MCG this season: Kangaroos 2-2, Hawthorn 6-2. Finals record this decade: Kangaroos 1-5, Hawthorn 4-2. The Kangaroos will rebound from their defeat last week, but will it be enough to win. They were blown off the park by a great team last week, but they appear to be struggling to put that performance behind them. It’s hard to know how much damage it has done mentally, but listening to interviews by coaches and players this week, they still look traumatized by that loss. The Hawks had a similar defeat to the Swans a fortnight ago, but the result was forgotten within 24 hours and the excitement of playing finals took over. In that game against the Swans, the Hawks fought that game out in the second half and played some decent footy, whilst the Roos last week were completely overwhelmed and had no response to the Cats. The Kangaroos must start well against the worst starters in the comp. Their confidence will return quickly if they can jump the Hawks. The midfield battle will be intriguing with both teams only employing the one tag and it should be a free flowing game. The attacks of both teams have the edge on the respective defences so we should see some decent scoring.Franklin -
Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) The finals series started with a bang, but ended in a whimper. That was a shocking performance by the Kangaroos, and has thrown their finals series into disarray. They were hanging on quarter time, but were crushed thereafter. Their prime movers were nullified and their forward line was impotent throughout. Fortunately, they don’t go into next week’s game against Hawthorn with a 106 deficit hanging over their heads. I’m convinced their soft games leading into today did them no favours whatsoever and now they need to regroup to tackle the Hawks. The Cats got on top early and never relented. They still have a few creases to iron out, but they are the dominant team in the competition and it would be a shame if they didn’t win the flag. Either Port or Collingwood would be the only serious challenges to them. Port
The Wash-Up Predictor – 2 from 4 Tips – 3 from 4 Bets – 2 from 3 (Two posters ruined the Port bet.)Adelaide Perth Franklin Franklin Perth Geelong Geelong -
Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Geelong v Kangaroos at the MCG
Last time they met (Round 20):Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong Geelong -
Re: AFL Football - Finals Week - 1 (September 7th - 9th) Port Adelaide v West Coast at AAMI Stadium
Last time they met (Round 15): Port Adelaide 22.21.153 def. West Coast 9.8.62 at AAMI. Team changes since last time they met – PortAdelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Adelaide Dixon Adelaide Adelaide Melbourne Adelaide Adelaide Brisbane Adelaide Adelaide Sydney Bryan Sydney Sydney
AFL Round 4
in Other Sports & Novelty Predictions
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Re: AFL Round 4 It looks to be a pretty straight forward round this week with margin and line betting looking to be the best way of making a dollar. The Bulldogs only need to maintain their present form to wallop the Bombers. The Dogs are kicking big scores and are only missing 4 of their best 22. The Bombers are missing their key forwards and I wouldn't pin my hopes on McPhee, Hille and Laycock to kick a winning score. It'll be interesting to see how the Bombers speedsters cope with the Bulldogs quick ball movement. The Saints face Geelong with only Steven Baker missing from their best 22. Probably the best team they've put on the park for 10 years. Geelong will face their toughest challenge so far and will need to return to their hard-nosed best to beat the Saints. Geelong's record at the Dome is super, but I worry about the Saints fronting up at the Dome for a fourth consecutive week. It can't be good on the legs. It seems like fitness is a concern for the Kangaroos. They've run out of petrol in every game so far and they'll need a four quarter effort to beat Melbourne. Melbourne's skills let them down last week at times when there wasn't that much pressure on. It should be an interesting game, but the Roos should hold on although they need a forward or two to do something. Port returned to form last week even though they didn't get over the line. The hardness was back and their stars fired. Brisbane's forward setup will cause Port problems, but the Lions haven't impressed too much so far. Plenty of their midfielders have been in patchy form so far. Port should chalk up their first victory. The Eagles are losing troops left, right and centre and are already playing injured players to keep their season afloat. Didn't they learn from 2007? The Swans are flying, but they don't play ANZ Stadium that well. They still have a number of players missing, but their youngsters are performing tremendously and should keep piling the pressure on the Eagles and win well. Team Strength and Predictor. Essendon (76%) v W.Bulldogs (83%), W.Bulldogs by 21 points. St.Kilda (95%) v Geelong (83%), Geelong by 36 points. North Melb.(81%) v Melbourne (81%), North Melb. by 13 points. Sydney (76%) v West Coast (78%), Sydney by 18 points. Port Adelaide (91%) v Brisbane (85%), Port Adelaide by 2 points. Suggested Bets. Geelong MARGIN (1-39). W.Bulldogs POINTS (-19.5). Good punting to you all.