[AFL Rd. 22.]

Re: AFL Rd. 22. It's not a very challenging round with the wins looking pretty straight forward and not good for those in tipping competitions and need a couple of upsets to get them over the line. Again there are plenty of dead rubbers and they don't need to be discussed in any depth. Both Freo and Collingwood are ravaged with injuries and whatever way you look at it, it should be a close game. The Dockers seem to score more heavily when Pavlich and Tarrant are not there which makes them unpredictable as far as avenues to goal are concerned. The Pies have lifted since the Shaw/Didak incident and they don't seem to be missing them that much. In saying that, they haven't beaten that much, but all those wins have been solid. I think the Pies look a little more dangereous up forward and will keep their top 4 chances alive for another 18 hours, but their wont be much in it. North Melbourne have their destiny in their own hands and shouldn't have too many problems against Port. North are unbeaten at the MCG in their last six games there whilst it's Port's first visit there since last year's Grand Final. North's midfield pressure will be too much for Port to handle and should be able to kick 18 -20 goals against an undermanned Port defence. AAMI Stadium hosts the match of the round with the Crows playing their most important game of the year so far. They need to win to host a final in week one and they have an imposing record at home against the Bulldogs. Porplyzia is a welcome inclusion even if he is being held together by super glue and will be a major factor in the game. The Bulldogs played some decent footy last week, but weren't spectacular. They certainly have the Hawks in their sights and regardless what they do against Adelaide, they would be fancied to knock off the Hawks. Eade might do some experimentation before the finals and they should give a good account of themselves, but the Crows have too much to lose and should scrape home. The Swans are resting some of their better players before the finals but don't be put off. They did the same against the Hawks in round 22 last year and belted them by 12 goals. Whilst they wont win by that much against the Lions, they look to have the Lions measure in most departments. The Lions haven't beaten the Swans too often in recent years because their midfield is constantly closed down by the Swans. The Lions midfield is the reason they didn't make the finals. This will be a nice tune up for the Swans before next week. In the other games, Geelong will belt the Eagles by triple figures with the only interest being whether the Eagles can kick more than five goals for the match. The Blues vs Hawks will be a great atmosphere with the sharpshooters both going for the ton. It should be a high scoring shootout with the Hawks narrowly getting home. The Tigers should finish the season in the postive by comfortably beating Melbourne whilst the Saints should bury the Bombers. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Adelaide 3 - North Melbourne, Hawthorn 4 - Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Geelong, Sydney 5 - Port Adelaide 6 - Richmond, St.Kilda 7 - Brisbane 8 - West Coast, Fremantle, Collingwood, Melbourne 11- Essendon Predictor. Fremantle 89 v Collingwood 83 North Melbourne 124 v Port Adelaide 82 Geelong 147 v West Coast 63 Adelaide 98 v Western Bulldogs 83 Carlton 100 v Hawthorn 113 Sydney 88 v Brisbane 84 Melbourne 76 v Richmond 102 Essendon 80 v St.Kilda 114 Best Bets. Fremantle LINE North Melbourne LINE Adelaide WIN Congratulations in advance to the Cats for winning the 2008 premiership easily beating the Bulldogs by 8 goals and to Brent Harvey and Nick Riewoldt for sharing the Brownlow. All the best on the punt this weekend. I'm done.

[AFL Rd. 21.]

Re: AFL Rd. 21. I think one thing we've learnt in the past few weeks is that you don't bet on teams that have nothing to play for. So it's best to concentrate on teams 4-10 to find some winners. The Bulldogs have a nice game here where they can tune up for September without being severely pressured as they have been in the past month. They have players who have been down a little and must find top form before the finals. The Bombers are staggering to the finish line and next Sunday can't come soon enough. With no ruck division, not much of a backline and not much help for Lloyd, it's hard to see them getting within 10 goals. A nasty trip to AAMI Stadium for Melbourne where they haven't won in their last 11 games. A good win last week, but Port at home is a big ask. Port's team looks decent and they were O.K last week against the Pies. They look strong in the middle and should feed Motlop, Ebert and Westhoff well enough for a comfortable victory. The Tigers are expected to win their last two games against inferior opposition. Being Richmond, they'll inevitably drop one, but which one. They were terrific against the wasteful Hawks last week who allowed them way too much latitude. The Dockers were poor against the Saints, but they normally play O.K at the MCG. Who knows what version of either team will show up, but we'll go the favoured way in a close game. Brisbane will want to continue their 7 game winning streak at the Gabba to keep themselves in the finals race. They only need to replocate last week's effort against the Bulldogs to put pay to the Blues, whose season is over. The Blues were never in it against North and will find a similar mountain to climb this week. The Lions need this scalp before taking on the Swans next week and should win comfortably. The Swans face their nemesis on Saturday night having lost their top 4 spot that they've held for the greater portion of the season. A few things in their favour here is that two players who have haunted them for 3 seasons are suspended (H.Shaw and Didak) and Collingwood have a shocking record at the Dome (2 wins from 8 games). The Swans could have been blown away by the Cats last week, but stuck to them in the last 3 quarters. The Pies are just going and haven't really impressed for a while now. The Swans want that top 4 spot back and beating Collingwood should help them do it. The Cats have injury issues and the coach isn't letting on who'll be missing come Sunday. The game has very much a Geelong vs Port feel this time last year when Port pinched the game at the death. The huge carrot dangling for the Kangaroos is a top finish is virtually assured if they can cause the upset. They have all the tools to take advantage off the Cats if they don't have the right mindset going into the game. There will be no thrashing here, and the Roos are a big show depending on who misses out for Geelong. Adelaide are back at the Dome looking for a top four finish. History says no non-Victorian has had back-to-back wins at the Dome in consecutive weeks. They are playing good footy and seem to have solved their forward issues. The Saints would rather cement a finals spot this week rather than drag it out to next week. I wouldn't think it would be a high scoring game and an arm wrestle looks likely. I think the Saints will sneak home in a finals like game. The Hawks head to Perth where they haven't beaten the Eagles since 1994. The Hawks were absolutely fixated with Franklin last week and the sooner he brings up three figures the better it will be for the Hawks. Very little midfield pressure from them last week allowing the Tigers easy passage to goal. The Eagles were woeful last week and surely couldn't produce the same this week. They'll be sending off some of their stars from recent years hopefully on the back of a decent performance. The Hawks should win, but there will be no blowout. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Geelong, Hawthorn 3 - North Melbourne, Adelaide 4 - Western Bulldogs, Carlton, 5 - Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Brisbane, Sydney 6 - Melbourne, St.Kilda 7 - Collingwood, Richmond 8 - West Coast 10- Essendon Predictor. Western Bulldogs 112 v Essendon 80 Port Adelaide 99 v Melbourne 78 Richmond 83 v Fremantle 95 Brisbane 95 v Carlton 93 Collingwood 84 v Sydney 89 Geelong 109 v North Melbourne 82 St.Kilda 72 v Adelaide 89 West Coast 75 v Hawthorn 101 Best Bets. Sydney WIN North Melbourne LINE St.Kilda WIN Good luck to you all.

[AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th)]

Re: AFL Round 20 (August 15th - 17th) I should be feeling confident after nailing 8 winners last week, but Round 20 is a disaster waiting to happen. Nothing is clear cut in any match and many tipping competitions will hinge on what happens this weekend. There isn't much point going into too much depth on all matches when I haven't got the foggiest idea of what will occur. So we'll head straight to Saturday night, where the Lions are walking a tightrope and only one slip will end their season. I never thought I'd see the day where Leigh Matthews would try and emulate Paul Roos' 05/06 gameplan and fail so spectacularly as it did against the Hawks last week. Back home for the first time in a month, they have to throw caution to the wind, but can their obviously injured stars last long enough to topple the Dogs. The Bulldogs have a top three spot wrapped up, but want some decent form under their belt before facing the Hawks in a Preliminary Final Qualifier. They played some good footy against North, but their midfield pressure is below average and subsquently are leaking goals. The Dogs good record at the Gabba and the Lions lack of confidence has the Dogs winning this. The Swans can virtually wrap up fourth spot by beating the Cats on Saturday night, but will need to improve vastly in form. They'll have as many as three players having run-with roles on Geelong's midfielders to try and reduce their scoring. The Swans are rarely blown away and have been competitive with the best without winning this season. The Cats are cruising along and destroying anything in their path. They wont get it their own way against the Swans, but should overpower them in the end in an arm wrestle. Carlton vs North looks the pick of the matches this weekend and is a good test to see how far the Blues have progressed. Their defence has tightened up and their midfield is just about the envy of the competition with the inclusion of Judd. Gibbs will be assigned either Harvey or Wells, and depending on how well he goes may go a long way to deciding the result. You get a consistent output from North every week, but they also give you a huge chance of getting on top of them for periods of matches. In a high scoring game, I fancy North to keep their top four hopes alive, but the Blues will give them a fright. The Saints have been awful since a great half against the Hawks. Surely they didn't get that far ahead of themselves on the back of one decent effort. They are sending a better team to Perth than the one that headed there in round 17. The Dockers midfield is further weakened by the loss of Carr and will once again be heavily depenent on Pavlich and his gang of teenagers to get them home. There is too much for the Saints to lose by letting this slip with Hayes, Dal Santo, Montagna and Gram to dominate. In the other games, Collingwood should hold off Port, Essendon to continue to remain undefeated against Adelaide in Victoria, Melbourne to continue their undefeated record against non-Victorian teams at the MCG against West Coast and Hawthorn should hold off the Tigers. Players missing from best 22's. 1 - Hawthorn 4 - Geelong, Sydney, Western Bulldogs 5 - Port Adelaide, Carlton 6 - Brisbane, Essendon, Collingwood, North Melbourne, St.Kilda, Fremantle 7 - Melbourne, Adelaide, Richmond 9 - West Coast Predictor. Port Adelaide 84 v Collingwood 83 Melbourne 79 v West Coast 82 Essendon 101 v Adelaide 96 Brisbane 92 v W.Bulldogs 104 Sydney 78 v Geelong 101 Richmond 88 v Hawthorn 114 Carlton 95 v North Melbourne 98 Fremantle 88 v St.Kilda 83 Best Bets. Sydney LINE (+25.5) North Melbourne MARGIN (1-39) St.Kilda WIN Best of luck everybody. We're going to need it.

[AFL Rd. 19.]

Re: AFL Rd. 19. I think I'll give up the weather predictions in future. I got last Friday night horribly wrong, and as soon as I walked into the ground, I realised the Franklin/Roughead combo would probably kick 10 goals between them and that tipping the Pies in ideal conditions was a major blunder. Another tough round for tipping ahead, and if you get around 6 winners, you'll be doing well. Tonight is horrible mismatch, with Geelong set for a percentage booster against Melbourne. The Demons go in with a small forward line with players not noted for kicking goals. Geelong's defence should have an easy night and probably only concede 7 or 8 goals whilst the Cats would be disappointed if the can't kick 120+. Port performed well above expectations last week and were unlucky not to hold on against the Saints. They face similar standard opposition at the same venue against Carlton and have been boosted by the return P.Burgoyne. The Blues had ample opportunity to beat Adelaide last week, but couldn't get the job done. You can't expect to play 3 quarters and expect to win too many games though. It should be a very attacking game and with Fevola to kick another bag, the Blues should get home. Cornes vs Judd should be a highlight. The Lions head to Launceston were winning is the only option. They've let far too many close games slip after being in control of them because the midfield pressure just hasn't been there. The Hawks were back to their best last week as their injury list decreases. They've had a good month regardless, but for that poor second half against the Saints. They'll be looking to run through brick walls this week for Crawford's 300th, and the key forwards of both teams hold the key. The Hawks should get home in a tight one in another big game in Tassie. Sydney have too much to play for and should account for the Dockers by the standard 5 goals they normally beat them by at the SCG. With Goodes and Barry back, they regain some flair, but they could do with O'Loughlin back as well. The Dockers look good with McPharlin up forward and Hayden returns to defence, but the midfield is no match for Sydney. The Saints have fallen away since their win over the Hawks, but still have their finals destiny in their own hands. Hudghton returns, but Ball will be hard to replace. The Pies will miss Didak, but not the Shaws. Bringing in some tall forwards will help out Cloke who has been in poor form. Can the Magpies hold Riewoldt? If they can, they can win. Keep in mind that this will be St.Kilda's toughest test in the last 3 weeks and they haven't impressed. The Pies will be out to show the footy world they've recovered from an awful week, and I'll give them another chance and tip them for the upset. The Kangaroos have won their last 4, but have looked vulnerable in all of them. The forward line is working well without Thompson and the midfield always keeps the opposition honest. Rodney Eade has turned his attention to Qualifying Final day and wont be too fussed if they drop a couple of games in the lead up to then. They are definitely 10-15% off where they were 6 weeks ago. Some of their forwards are out of form and Cooney will be embarrassed after conceding 6 goals to his shadow last week. I think North are going a little bit better than the Dogs at the moment and should keep the pressure on the Swans for fourth spot. I'm tipping Adelaide in McLeod's 300th and West Coast in the other Sunday games, but both games are a coin flip and it's hard to be confident one way of the other. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Hawthorn 4 - Geelong, Carlton, Western Bulldogs 5 - Fremantle, North Melbourne, Richmond 6 - Port Adelaide, Brisbane, St.Kilda, Sydney, Adelaide, Essendon 7 - Collingwood, West Coast 9 - Melbourne Predictor. Melbourne 54 v Geelong 122 Carlton 112 v Port Adelaide 80 Hawthorn 99 v Brisbane 85 Collingwood 75 v St.Kilda 85 Sydney 100 v Fremantle 84 North Melbourne 97 v W.Bulldogs 100 Adelaide 82 v Richmond 90 West Coast 79 v Essendon 95 Best Bets. Brisbane LINE (+25.5) North Melbourne WIN Collingwood WIN All the best this weekend to you all.

[AFL Rd. 18.]

Re: AFL Rd. 18. It was a real car wreck last weekend as far as punting on the AFL goes and a pretty rear occurrence. Usually only get one or two of those a year. Let's hope some normality returns this week but there are plenty of challenges ahead. The Hawks return to the scene of the crime after just falling short against the Cats. The task is no easier this week with the Jekyll & Hyde Magpies fronting up to knock them off. A wet and wintry night is on the cards, so the tall forwards are practically taken out of the equation, and that will hurt the Hawks more. I expect a let down from the Hawks after last weeks game and being that they are reasonably comfortable in the top 4 and with Collingwood playing for a finals berth, they have more to gain from a win and should sneak home in a tough battle. It's very windy in Melbourne, and it's starting to turn nasty, so the skills wont be great and a damp track wont help those trying to take a mark. The Bombers are playing great footy at the moment and should sweep aside Melbourne. With Lucas out, the task is made more difficult, but their runners are all playing at the top of their game and the Demons will have no match for them. With Miller out for the Demons, they have no key forwards and will pobably be forced to use Green at full forward. Carlton are on a high after last weeks heroics and venture to Adelaide full of confidence. One thing is for certain is that Adelaide's defence wont let in 18 goals like the Bulldogs did. The Crows have never lost 4 in a row at AAMI Stadium in a single season. The game means so much to both in the lead up to the finals. I think the Crows can hold Fevola, Fisher and Betts to a low enough score to claim victory, but the Blues good interstate record this season is a concern. The Kangaroos head to the Gold Coast for the final time to host Brisbane. They've snuck under the radar in the past few weeks, getting the job done with little fanfare. The Lions should be locked in the top four, but have dropped too many games in winning positions late in games. Given an even midfield battle, I don't see logical match ups for Merrett and Roe because the Kangaroos are using a small, mobile forward set up. The Roos have fair match ups on Brown and Bradshaw with Brennan being the unpredictable wildcard that could win them or lose them the game. No point dropping off the Kangas yet and they should consolidate fifth spot. It'll be interesting to see if Geelong can handle Hawthorn's rolling zone for a second week in a row seeing as Wallace has adopted the concept as well. The Cats were tested last week, but held their nerve and were too polished in the end. The Tigers have been on a roll thanks to their midfield runners and good finishing by their forwards. I can see the Tigers matching the Cats for maybe two and a half quarters before being blown apart. It's time for a reality check for Wallace's men. The Bulldogs are in the same predicament as Hawthorn at present in that they can't play a full four quarters. Not that it matters that much at this stage with a top three spot virtually secured. Locking that up has been made easier with Goodes and O'Loughlin missing for the Swans. Playing at their home away from home is an advantage for the Swans, but they don't have the firepower to match the Bulldogs and could be on the verge of losing fourth spot. Port Adelaide are in list management mode and wont get close to the Saints. Williams will introduce some new talent to see if they are up to it whilst losing key players from all areas of the ground. The Saints had a setback last week going onto auto-pilot too early against the Eagles and paid the price at the final siren. With Koschitzske back, scoring goals shouldn't be a problem, but with Hudghton out, they might leak a few as well. In a high scoring game, the Saints will win by plenty. The Derby wraps up the round and the Dockers go in deserved favourites, but with recent wins against Port and Melbourne, it's hard to get too enthusiastic about. The Eagles jumped out of the grave last week to upset the Saints and will have got some confidence from it. In a real flip of the coin game, I'll tip Pavlich to get his Dockers home, with West Coast still in the race for the first draft pick. Players missing from best 22's. 3 - Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs 4 - Geelong 5 - Collingwood, Carlton, Richmond, Sydney, Fremantle 6 - Brisbane, St.Kilda, West Coast 7 - Essendon, Melbourne, Adelaide, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide. Predictor. Collingwood 77 v Hawthorn 85 Essendon 94 v Melbourne 76 Adelaide 82 v Carlton 88 Geelong 111 v Richmond 84 North Melbourne 81 v Brisbane 93 W.Bulldogs 96 v Sydney 84 St.Kilda 119 v Port Adelaide 77 Fremantle 97 v West Coast 70 Best Bets. Collingwood WIN North Melbourne WIN St.Kilda MARGIN (40+) Surely, this week has got to be better than last. Fingers crossed.

[AFL Rd. 17.]

Re: AFL Rd. 17. Last week we had the entree with Geelong playing with the Dogs for three quarters before consuming them in the last quarter. Tonight, we have the main course with 85,000-90,000 at the MCG to see if the Cats can put the Hawks Premiership hopes on hold for another 12 months. Geelong appear invincible and will be out to stamp their authority on the competition by beating the Hawks. Their defence is dominant, their midfield has no equal and their forwards rarely fail in putting a big total on the scoreboard. Losing Ablett, Ling and Wojcinski hasn't hampered them severely due to their depth. The Hawks cannot put a complete midfield unit on the park. With Crawford, Young and possibly Mitchell missing, I don't see the Hawks matching the Cats for four quarters. If it becomes a flogging, hopefully Franklin or Roughead can kick a bag so the night doesn't become a huge flop. Essendon's injury list is crippling and there is no doubt they are playing at least six unfit players against the Pies. Collingwood got a wake up call from the Kangaroos last week and had their top four chances damaged. Collingwood's midfield and forward line looks too strong for a depleted Bombers and should win easily. The Lions are back in Melbourne, and how could you honestly tip them. They leak huge scores at the Dome and up against the Tigers, they lack speed. They have no match up for Richardson whilst Foley and Deledio are growing in stature by the week. Brown and Bradshaw need huge nights for them to win, but the Tigers defence should hold them and claim an important victory. A couple of injuries to key players and the Swans look vulnerable, but the Crows don't have the fire power to upset them. The Crows have a great record at the SCG, but they don't have the personnel to kick a big enough score to worry the Swans. The Bulldogs will want to rebound hard after last week's showing and face the perfect opponent on Sunday. The Blues will let them kick a big score, allow them to run amok in the midfield and allow them to focus their defensive attention on one player. Carlton might hang with them for a half, but the Dogs will show them why they are second on the ladder. St.Kilda and North should win their games and consolidate their position in the top eight. Port v Freo is a raffle and anyones guess. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Western Bulldogs 3 - Collingwood 4 - Hawthorn, Geelong, Port Adelaide, Carlton 5 - St.Kilda, Richmond, Brisbane, Sydney, Fremantle 6 - Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne 7 - Essendon 8 - West Coast. Predictor. Hawthorn 74 v Geelong 112 Essendon 90 v Collingwood 105 West Coast 70 v St.Kilda 97 Richmond 110 v Brisbane 105 Sydney 101 v Adelaide 74 Port Adelaide 78 v Fremantle 82 Melbourne 75 v North Melbourne 103 W.Bulldogs 117 v Carlton 87 Best Bets. Geelong LINE (-19.5) Sydney MARGIN (1-39) W.Bulldogs LINE (-22.5) I'm off to the MCG to hopefully see a great game and hoping the Premiership race remains open at the end of the night. Have a good weekend.

[AFL Rd. 16.]

Re: AFL Rd. 16. It's another tough contract for punters this week, with the plenty of games to steer clear off. Tonight's game perhaps has the most hingeing on it with both trying to claim a finals and top 4 spot respectively. North did everything but lose last week and weren't that impressive against Port. They do find something for the games they must win. Dropping Thompson was overdue, but Grant and Jones are sadly out of form but have been recalled. The Pies are now favourite to grab a spot in the top 4. They just need to shadow the Swans for the rest of the season and then nail them in round 21. Small forwards hold the key to this game with Medhurst, Didak and Thomas more likely to do damage. Both have poor records at the Dome this season, but the Pies must beat the teams below them and should win tonight. Davis is a late withdrawl. Richmond vs Essendon is a very even match up with plenty of goals on offer given decent weather. I don't see alot of accountability here with both forward lines looking strong enough to kick winning scores. Tigers look more dynamic in the midfield with Foley, Deledio and Johnson flying. As we enter the final third of the season, the Tigers are overdue to notch up their first home win at the MCG for the season. It looks like the heavyweight match of the season will be a victim of the weather. The team with the most grunt and willing to put it all on the line will prevail. Geelong's form cannot be faulted, braining any team they've faced. The strength comes from their defence and they need to be in full flight to stop the league's best attack. The Bulldogs have no fear of Skilled Stadium having won 5 of their last 6 there. The Bulldogs have been 5-10% off their game since their season's highlight 10 goal win over Brisbane. There wont be much in the game, but the Premiers should be in front at the siren. They will meet again in September, no doubt. The Eagles have won they're last 4 at the Gabba, but they have entered full tank mode. Brisbane have Black and Brown fully fit and this should give the Lions a percentage boosting victory and some much needed confidence. A big game at the Dome on Saturday night with the Saints starting to find their true form. Their forward line is starting to function properly and their midfield are starting to take their opponents on. They have a fairly decent record over the Hawks, but so did the Swans until last week. Hawthorn's conversion in front of goal is a concern, but whether they get the amount of opportunities they've had in the last few weeks is debatable. Another consideration is whether the Hawks are solely focussed on this game with a monster fortnight ahead. I'm leaning to the Hawks but the Saints are a massive show. If the Swans can match want they did last week, they should overcome the Blues. Their midfield will lockdown on Judd, Stevens and Murphy and their defence will keep Fevola quiet. They need to keep winning to hold off the Magpies and should break their losing streak here. The Showdown is an even money bet. Port are having problems supplying their forward line and the Crows are having trouble scoring. Goodwin, Thompson and McLeod will need to spend time up forward to kick them a decent score. The game is really to close to call with confidence. Freo should chalk up their third win over a vastly under strength Melbourne outfit. It's a perfect opportunity for Pavlich, Farmer and Tarrant to shine whilst the Demons have very little experience in the team and have an awful record in Perth. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood 3 - Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn 4 - Carlton, Sydney, Port Adelaide 5 - Richmond, St.Kilda 6 - Brisbane, Adelaide, Fremantle 7 - North Melbourne, Melbourne 8 - Essendon 9 - West Coast How many of your top 10 are playing. 10- St Kilda, Geelong, Carlton 9 - Collingwood, Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Hawthorn, Sydney 8 - Port Adelaide, Fremantle 7 - North Melbourne, Richmond, Essendon, West Coast, Adelaide 5 - Melbourne Predictor. North Melbourne 87 v Collingwood 103 Geelong 97 v Western Bulldogs 84 Richmond 108 v Essendon 105 St.Kilda 79 v Hawthorn 95 Brisbane 114 v West Coast 72 Carlton 82 v Sydney 87 Port Adelaide 74 v Adelaide 79 Fremantle 99 v Melbourne 71 Best Bets. Geelong MARGIN (1-39) Brisbane POINTS (-45.5) Fremantle LINE (-17.5) All the best for round 16.

[AFL Rd. 15]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 It's time to assess the damage so far before looking ahead. The Saints did it comfortably over Carlton although it was looking dodgy half way through the last quarter. Their goalscoring power won it for them with Riewoldt dominating Waite. Another loss in the 30's for the Blues at the MCG and they aren't a September team yet. Collingwood eventually ground the Crows into the turf after staring slowly. Losing Porplyzia and Burton did Adelaide no favours and now they will have to work hard to make the 8. The Pies continue their push for top 4 and will be hoping the Hawks look after them tomorrow. The Cats followed the script by belting the Dockers, but might lose Ling and Ablett for the match of the year next week. It looks like Solomon can take his holidays early after elbowing Ling. An 8-10 week suspension should suffice. The Lions are just making up the numbers come September. Their midfield has dropped away and their defence lack accountability. A home Elimination final is the best they can expect, but probably don't deserve. I can't see myself betting on them again when they play in Melbourne. The Bombers have their confidence back and have a nice run home and might win 11 games. Port in experimental mode were still able to match it with the Kangaroos who are just travelling. A lucky win for North, but it keeps their finals hopes alive. The heavyweight clash at the MCG tomorrow should give us a gauge at where both are at. The Swans haven't come up with the goods against the best teams this season, but face a team here that they have the wood on. This is probably their most important game of the year and they must hold Collingwood at bay for a top 4 finish. The Hawks are clearly the 3rd best team, and have done so continually weakened in the midfield. Doubts on Bateman and Crawford might hamper them again, but they must have faith in their game style and run the Swans off their feet. They can't afford to be bullied by the Swans and must use their strengths up forward to put a winning score on the board. The Hawks incentive to virtually lock up a top 3 spot should get them home in a close one. The Dogs have a few missing, but whatever way you look at this game, it screams blowout. The Dogs have all areas covered and should kick another big score. With Davey and McLean out, scoring power is diminished, quality delivery is down and the Demons staring another 10 goal drubbing in the face. I have nothing useful to offer on the West Coast-Richmond game, because with the amount decent talent on the sidelines, it's to difficult to come up with anything meaningful. I'll tip the Eagles with their home ground advantage. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Hawthorn 3 - Sydney 4 - W.Bulldogs 5 - Richmond 6 - Melbourne, West Coast Number of top 10 players named. 9 - Hawthorn, Sydney, West Coast 8 - W.Bulldogs 7 - Richmond 6 - Melbourne Predictor. Hawthorn 81 v Sydney 85 W.Bulldogs 137 v Melbourne 73 West Coast 90 v Richmond 99 Best Bets. Hawthorn MARGIN (1-24)

[AFL Rd. 15]

Re: AFL Rd. 15 It's a tricky round ahead with the unknown factor being how teams respond after their week off. The round starts tonight with Carlton trying to overcome their hoodoo over the Saints. I'm still scratching my head why they have night games at the MCG in the depths of winter. Cold ,wet and windy conditions are expected and this wont suit the Saints who are so accustomed to indoor football. Neither team are setting the world on fire, both struggling to overcome teams at their own standard. The midfield battle determines this one and I think the Saints look to have better depth through there with Hayes back and should provide enough chances to their forwards. Interesting to note that in 8 of their last 9 games at the MCG, Carlton have either won or lost by a margin in the 30's. The Crows head to Melbourne to face the Magpies on the back off a poor away record this season. They wont be the last team to be blown apart by Geelong, but their inflexible nature never gave them a chance to get back into that match. The Pies got the job done in Sydney last week, but dont seem to be able maintain good form for long periods. Both forward lines have question marks on them and defence should rule the day. I'm tipping the Magpies to win by a kick or two. Fremantle face the torture test when they face the Cats at home. They're putting a reasonable team on the park, but I can't see how they restrict the output of Geelong's midfield. It'll be interesting to see how many Dockers players don the long sleeves tomorrow. The Cats are in top form and will win easily. I think we've now established that Brisbane leave 25% of their playing abilities at home when they travel south. But will playing at 75% be enough to overcome the Bombers? One thing in their favour is that they'll be playing indoors and their skills shouldn't be affected adversely. The Bombers have been in a purple patch and have been knocking over teams they should beat. They must get a significant contribution from Lloyd, Lucas and McPhee to get close. The Lions have more to play for and should get home in a shootout. North are falling of the pace, and this game against Port is a must win. Laidley has done them no favours at the selection table putting out a team similar to the one thrashed by the Dockers a month ago. Port are playing youngsters as they are out of the finals race, but they've been standing up and Port haven't fallen away as many would have thought. They have enough good players playing decent footy to get them home against the overrated Kangaroos. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood, Geelong 3 - Brisbane 4 - Adelaide 5 - Carlton, Fremantle 6 - Essendon, Port Adelaide 7 - St Kilda 8 - North Melbourne How many of the top 10 are playing. 10- Carlton, St Kilda, Geelong 9 - Collingwood, Fremantle, Essendon, Brisbane 8 - Adelaide, North Melbourne 6 - Port Adelaide Predictor. Carlton 81 v St Kilda 85 Collingwood 96 v Adelaide 80 Geelong 104 v Fremantle 66 Essendon 105 v Brisbane 120 Port Adelaide 78 v North Melbourne 73 Best Bets. Adelaide LINE (+17.5) Brisbane MARGIN (1-39) I'll be back with the Sunday games later.

[AFL Rd. 14.]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. It's been a tipsters nightmare so far this round and my punting hasn't been the best, but it's time to make amends with the two games remaining. The Crows haven't been as adventurous in the last month or so and have definitely adopted their old defensive mindset. One factor in their favour is they have not let an opposition team score more than 11 goals in a game at home for a year(10 games). On the negative, scoring goals themselves has become difficult. Burton and Goodwin just haven't produced in recent times. The Cats haven't put a foot wrong since their Collingwood thrashing. With Scarlett back in the team, it's hard to see the Crows more than 10 goals and that wont win them a game against the Cats. It wont be a high scoring game, but the Cats should win. The Swans without Goodes? How will they cope. It's certainly music to the ears of the Magpies who havent lost to the Swans since 2005. I think the Magpies will comfortably make the finals, but they need to get themselves away from those sides fighting for eighth spot. They're missing Rocca and Fraser but they've got replacements to cover them. The Swans haven't been able to handle Didak, Pendlebury and Thomas previously and I expect this to be no different. The Swans have the forward power to kick a winning score, but supply issues with Goodes missing has the Magpies winning this one. Players missing from best 22's. 2- Geelong, Collingwood 3- Adelaide, Sydney Predictor. Adelaide 75 v Geelong 89 Sydney 88 v Collingwood 91 Best Bets. Collingwood HT/FT Double. Good luck.

[AFL Rd. 14.]

Re: AFL Rd. 14. It's slim pickings by the looks of things this weekend with clear cut favourites set to dominate, and poorly performed challengers for the top 8 out to spoil one another. The Eagles come to Melbourne again and face another uphill battle. They've lost patience with experienced under performers and have lost key personnel through injury. The Hawks copped their right whack last week and didn't give North enough respect. Their team is better for having Croad and Crawford back, but still have major issues with their run and carry through the middle. Their superior skills should give them the edge, but it will be by no means a blowout. It looks like a lovely night for football. September football is on the line at the MCG on Saturday with the Blues and Tigers doing battle. Both have had recent wins over Port in Adelaide, but Carlton weren't good against Essendon last week. Judd looks like he'll miss the game which puts pressure on Murphy, Gibbs and Stevens to perform. The Tigers will welcome back Thursfield to match up on Fevola and has a decent record on him as well. I think Richmond have too much firepower for Carlton and should win. North were back to their best last week and a repeat of that should have them winning this. However, they have struggled all season for consistency and the difference between their best and worse is more noticable this season. I can't read the Saints at all. They are hanging in there and haven't played great football at any stage this season. Their key forwards aren't reliable and look only capable of kicking 12 or 13 goals. Mark Williams has put the cue in the rack, and is going to test his youth for the remainder of the season. They have a good record in Darwin, but they don't have the resources to match the Bulldogs here. The Dogs had to dig deep last week to get over the line, but they'll have a big win here to grab top spot for the week. The Lions welcome back Bradshaw and Johnstone to bolster their lineup against Demons. They struggled to overcome the Crows last week, but got there in the end. Melbourne are a typical bottom side. They are able to match a good team for two quarters, but fall away in the other two. The same will apply on Sunday. The Dockers need to knock off pretenders like Essendon to get some credibility in the last half of the season. There must be a doubt on McPharlin lining up for the Dockers. The whole game might depend on whether he plays or not. Getting ahead of the Eagles on the table must be some motivation for the Dockers to win, or are they in tank mode? Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Brisbane 3 - W.Bulldogs 4 - Hawthorn 5 - Richmond, Melbourne, Fremantle, Essendon, Carlton 6 - North Melbourne 8 - West Coast, St.Kilda, Port Adelaide. Predictor. Hawthorn 126 v West Coast 74 Richmond 111 v Carlton 92 North 85 v St Kilda 87 W.Bulldogs 115 v Port Adelaide 81 Melbourne 78 v Brisbane 110 Fremantle 93 v Essendon 77 Best Bets. Hawthorn MARGIN (1-39) North LINE (-7.5) Good luck with your punting this weekend.

[Afl Rd. 13.]

Re: Afl Rd. 13. It could be the weekend of the outsider, with plenty of favourites being far too short and roughies at outrageous odds. The Telstra Dome is a graveyard for the Dockers, no matter who they confront. They usually get beaten by between 2 and 6 goals. They never get blown away, but rarely win. Ross Lyon has swung the axe, but Dal Santo might play if Harvey doesn't come up. Whoever plays best between Riewoldt and Pavlich will decide this one, but I think St.Kilda's midfield will have the upper hand and see them home. The game between Hawthorn and North will be a fascinating affair. The Hawks running power is severely diminished with Bateman, Crawford, Sewell and McGlynn missing. The Kangaroos have a full compliment of midfielders with Harris and Rawlings having a great record of closing down Mitchell and Hodge. North's forward line has been strengthened with Jones and Thompson returning. Hawks will probably be on a downer after their last gasp win over Adelaide whilst North should rebound strongly from last weeks disappointment. It sounds like 2007 semi-final weekend all over again and I think we'll get the same result with North to cause the upset. The Crows did everything right last week, but couldn't nail the Hawks with the chances they had. With Burton and Reilly back, they look even more dangerous. Even though their away form hasn't been great so far, they don't mind the trip to Brisbane. The Lions seem to be having a tough time handling the top tier. They were very disappointing last week and without Bradshaw again, the Crows defence will lap up triple teaming Brown and keep their top 4 hopes alive by winning comfortably. Johnstone and Sherman are late withdrawls for Brisbane. I was fortunate to get Adelaide at $3.20 on Tuesday. Port's home record has been dreadful so far and will cost them a finals spot. It's hard to comprehend they are going so badly seeing as they've hardly had any injuries. They need a substantial lift from the Cornes and Burgoyne boys. The Tigers did everything to throw away their game against Melbourne last week and are probably still a bottom four team. Their record at AAMI is awful winning just 1 of their last 13 there. No excuses for Port here and should win easily. The Cats travel to Perth with Selwood and Stokes passing fitness tests. They did what they had to last week, but they are overusing the ball far too much inside 50. It probably cost them 6 or 7 goals last week. The Eagles team looks stronger and they are playing decent footy at home. They'll give some cheek, but the Cats will keep top spot. The Swans travel to their home away from home in Canberra and should hammer the Demons. Injuries are at a minimum, they're playing attractive football and alot of their players are at the top of their game. The Demons have been competitive recently, but are still on track to collect the wooden spoon. Essendon certainly are big odds to topple the Blues, but they match up well against them. It's time for Lucas to fire, and if he does they'll be hard to beat. The Blues are looking to win three games in a row for the first time since 2001. After they won two in a row last year, they got comfortable with themselves started favourites against the Hawks and got pole-axed. Will they get ahead of themselves again? They should win, but the Bombers will test them. Collingwood's injury problems has the Bulldogs winning this game easily. In my mind, the Bulldogs have been the best side in 2008 so far and have the Magpies covered in every department. Their midfield is flying and their forward line should contribute another 18-20 goals again this week. The Pies are starting to fall of the pace, but will still play finals. Player's missing from best 22's. 2 - W.Bulldogs 3 - Port Adelaide, Adelaide, Sydney 4 - Geelong, Carlton, Collingwood 5 - Fremantle, Hawthorn, North, Melbourne 6 - West Coast, Brisbane, Essendon 7 - Richmond 10 - St.Kilda Predictor. Fremantle by 12, Hawthorn by 7, Port by 22, Brisbane by 1, Geelong by 16, Sydney by 70, Carlton by 8 , W.Bulldogs by 12. Best Bets. North WIN North POINTS (+21.5) Adelaide MARGIN (1-39) Good punting in Round 13.

[AFL Rd. 12.]

Re: AFL Rd. 12. It looks as though there are plenty of untouchable games this weekend, with tonight's game the first of them. The Eagles are a joke away from home and the Bombers are a joke at the Dome. Both sides have a third of their best team missing and both teams find it hard to finish games off. I'll tip the Bombers, but I'm not touching it. Kerr is rumoured to be a late withdrawl for the Eagles and Lovett is out for the Bombers. The Lions might have conditions to suit them tomorrow against the Bulldogs. Wet weather has delivered the Lions at least 3 victories this season. I'm struggling to remember the last time the Dogs saw a raindrop. The Bulldogs are still maintaining a strong squad which is keeping them at the top of their game. The Bulldogs might not reach 100 tomorrow, but I don't see the Lions kicking more than 12 goals. The 'dangerous' Dockers wont get a better chance to knock over North tomorrow. Although history is against them with North having won 5 of 7 at Subiaco against them. North have their destiny in their own hands, and need to knock over teams like Freo to keep the wolves at bay. I can't pick the Dockers until they play out 4 quarters despite North's injuries. Hawthorn's horrible record against the Crows has me leaning to the home team in this one. The Hawks can't get a full compliment of midfielders on the park and it has hindered them recently. The Crows are strong through the middle and the use of Goodwin, Thompson and Porplyzia up forward is causing teams headaches. In a low scoring game where 13 goals should win it, the Crows should get home. Geelong had to work overtime to beat North last week and it wont be any different this week against Port. Port are at full strength bar Ebert and Thurstans whilst the Cats will be stretched in defence with Scarlett and Wojcinski out. The Cats should prevail, but Port are a huge show. Sydney, Collingwood and Richmond pick themselves. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - W.Bulldogs, Port Adelaide 3 - Brisbane, Collingwood 4 - Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong, Carlton 5 - Fremantle, Melbourne 6 - Essendon, St.Kilda 7 - West Coast, North, Richmond. Predictor. West Coast by 15, W.Bulldogs by 16, Fremantle by 10, Sydney by 34, Adelaide by 9, Geelong by 2, Collingwood by 18, Richmond by 20. Best Bets. W.Bulldogs MARGIN (1-39) Sydney POINTS (-28.5) Port Adelaide LINE (+25.5) Good luck.

[AFL Rd. 11.]

Re: AFL Rd. 11. It looks a pretty straight forward round on paper, but if you delve a little deeper, there is definitely some value to be found. Tonight's game wont be as one sided as it might appear. Without Thompson and Jones in their forward line, North do look vulnerable, but not disimilar to their forward setup towards the end of last year that got them to a Preliminary Final. However, North have 8 of their best 18 missing whilst the Cats have their best team on the park since their win against Sydney in Round 4. The Cats will need more than one quarter to blow away North, but should overpower them in the end. I can't find the handle for the Richmond vs Adelaide game. Adelaide's conversion in recent weeks is concerning, and without Burton, you can wipe 3 or 4 goals of their score. The Tigers were woeful last week and have reverted back to playing the maligned players that have let them down time and time again in recent years. Wallace is going about things the wrong way if he wants to keep his job next year. Tigers have the speed to worry the Crows, but the Crows are too steady around the ground to drop this. The Hawks have been steadily declining over the last 3 weeks and wont get it their own way against Essendon. It should be a free flowing game with both defences easy to score against and minimal tagging in the midfield. The Hawks should provide their forwards with more quality delivery and get over the line narrowly. Hawks have won 8 of their last 9 at the Dome. I think we might return to the traditional tight clash between West Coast and Sydney. Some good inclusions for the Eagles that strengthens both ends of the ground gives them a fighting chance. The Swans are so consistent and rarely get blown away and their team is very settled. Another close away victory for the Swans is on the cards. Not much point discussing the game at the Gabba, because the Dockers have never got close to the Lions there and they wont get close on Sunday. Brisbane are building nicely and should push for a top 4 spot. I dont think the Dockers will be leading at three quarter time this week. It's been a big campaign for the Dogs so far and their wins on the road have been fantastic. Losing Murphy might hurt, but St.Kilda don't have the defence to exploit it. The midfield battle will determine the result, but the Saints forward line will need to do something special to overcome the Bulldogs' improving defence. The Dogs to win again. Port and Collingwood look winners in their games, but neither will be big blowouts. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood 3 - Geelong, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Sydney, W.Bulldogs 4 - Essendon, Brisbane, Fremantle, Port Adelaide 5 - Richmond, Melbourne, Carlton 6 - West Coast, St.Kilda 8 - North Melbourne. Predictor. Geelong by 38, Adelaide by 17, Hawthorn by 26, Sydney by 26, Brisbane by 44, W.Bulldogs by 18, Port by 19, Collingwood by 37, Best Bets. Essendon LINE (+36.5) Sydney MARGIN (1-39) Carlton LINE (+35.5) Let's hope the good form continues and good luck this weekend.

[AFL Rd. 10.]

Re: AFL Rd. 10.

Nice work BC... ...sorry mate, thought we were all on the same wave-length here...was never anything against you personally... ...a bit of extra confidence (:beer) from the Friday night made my post a little up front, but didn't for one minute mean to undermine your picks. :ok I can't believe I didn't hit Port when they got out to 2.10 and beyond...Freo...way to go?? :unsure PS. I got Sydney right, so Ash...oh never mind! :D (Seriously, sorry dude...) :cheers

No dramas Taza. :drums The drinks are on me. I'm paying. :cheers

[AFL Rd. 10.]

Re: AFL Rd. 10. That was a perfect weekend. Everything I touched turned to gold. All my best bets romped home, got the 8 winners and got some nice line and margin multis over the line on Saturday. I expect the exact opposite to happen next weekend. It's nice to be cashed up though. Ling will sit on Judd, and Murphy, Stevens and Simpson will be under the pump all night. I'm prone to errors like anyone else Taza, but I didn't realise leaving out a comma would cause such grief. I think most people knew what I meant. Anyway, the analysis was spot on and Carlton got spanked. The top 4 race is wide open with 7 teams having strong claims. Who makes the top 4 will be more exciting than who makes the 8.

[AFL Rd. 10.]

Re: AFL Rd. 10. There could be a huge gap open up between the top and bottom 8, and it's up to Port Adelaide and St.Kilda to win to keep themselves in the hunt. It's hard to see any of the top 8 teams have such a poor form slump down the track, that they could lose their finals spot. The Crows have had a great record of keeping their opponents to very low scores at AAMI this season. This should be no exception seeing that Essendon's midfield is struggling big time. With Watson out, Stanton easy to blanket and McVeigh coming back from injury, it's hard to see how Lloyd and Lucas will be supplied against a great defensive unit. The Crows will win, but it wont be a massive blowout. We'll see how far the Magpies have progressed after ripping Geelong last week when they take on the Eagles. Surely that was a one-off and things will return to normal on Saturday. The Eagles have been poor on the road but they have some confidence back after beating the Crows. One big quarter for the Pies should see them win comfortably. The great games keep on coming in Launceston with 1 vs 3 doing battle in the match of the round. The Hawks did enough to win last week, but the fluency wasn't there due to key runners missing. Their drive from defence wasn't as assured with both Guerra and Dew missing and their delivery inside 50 was below standard. The Bulldogs are going well and it was no shame to lose to the Kangaroos last week. I have a feeling Brad Johnson will either kick a bag or drag the Dogs over the line in this one to make up for last week. Injuries are starting to slow the Hawks down and that will be enough to get the Dogs home. It should be entertaining seeing as both defences are easy to score against. Heaven help the Blues this week because they are going to get annihilated. Their defence is looking as bad as it has been in the last few years and they have no weapons to even compete with the Cats. Fevola will be held by Scarlett, Ling will sit on Judd and Murphy, Stevens and Simpson will be under the pump all night. The Cats were mentally off last week and paid the price for it. They'll be breathing fire this week and will destroy Carlton. The Lions are looking fearsome again, and if they want a top 4 berth, they can't be dropping home games like this. The Kangaroos will be no pushovers and they normally lift for games like this, but I think they'll be outclassed in the end. Sydney and St.Kilda should have regulation wins on Sunday against inferior oppostion, but the game in Perth provides the mystery of the round. Which team wont choke and win the game? Port have some classy players missing and been pipped by some good teams in the last few weeks. The Dockers welcome back J.Carr to provide more grunt in the middle. Farmer needs to provide more than he has recently and their defence has been leaky of late. The game means more to Port and they should sneak over the line. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood, Sydney 3 - W.Bulldogs, Geelong, Port Adelaide 4 - Adelaide, Hawthorn, Richmond 5 - Brisbane, North Melb, Melbourne, Fremantle 6 - Carlton, Essendon, West Coast. 7 - St.Kilda. Predictor. Adelaide by 43, Collingwood by 21, Hawthorn by 3, Brisbane by 18, Geelong by 51, Sydney by 18, St.Kilda by 27, Port Adelaide by 14. Best Bets. Geelong LINE (-40.5) Western Bulldogs MARGIN (25+) St.Kilda POINTS (-29.5) Good luck everyone.

[AFL Rd. 9.]

Re: AFL Rd. 9. The Cats are coasting along at present and are doing enough to win matches. The new players they've introduced have slotted in comfortably and has kept them on top of the heap so far. Collingwood are having a tough time with too many players performing well below expectations at present. Their key forwards have been miserable for a month and will find it hard to strike form on the best defence in the business. The Pies will hang in there for a while, but it will only take the Cats 20 minutes to put them out of their misery. The Dockers come to town and possibly looking forward to another sub-5 goal defeat, like what's happened in their last 5 visits. They are always competitive, but can't get the job done. The Blues were OK after quarter time last week, but never threatened the Lions. Midfield superiority should get the Blues over the line. It's an away game for Swans against Port and that means lockdown. Take a look at Sydney's away games so far. Total game score average is 143. Port let another significant lead slip last week and it's going to cost them in the long run. They can't afford to drop their home games. Their forward line should kick them a winning score in an ugly contest. The Bulldogs and North both just got over the line last week and it should be a fierce contest on Sunday. Roos have been poor at the Dome so far and haven't performed well against better opponents so far. The Dogs look too classy around the ground and should win again. The other games should follow the form book with Richmond, Adelaide, Brisbane and Hawthorn winning well. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood, Port Adelaide 3 - Geelong, W.Bulldogs 4 - Sydney, Richmond, Adelaide, Hawthorn, North Melb. 5 - Fremantle, Brisbane, St.Kilda 6 - Carlton, Melbourne 7 - West Coast 8 - Essendon. Predictor. Geelong by 22, Carlton by 12, Sydney by 2, Richmond by 28, Adelaide by 25, Brisbane by 24, Hawthorn by 33, W.Bulldogs by 9. Best Bets. Geelong MARGIN (1-39) Adelaide MARGIN (1-39) Melbourne LINE (+47.5) Late news is that Chapman is injured for Geelong and will be replaced by Varcoe. Good luck everyone.

[AFL Rd. 8...Finally!...]

Re: AFL Rd. 8...Finally!... The poor old Saints can't take a trick. The only time they've put a full strength team on the park, they run into the Cats in Round 4 and get flogged. This team is cursed. No matter who their personnel is, the injuries naturally follow. For this game, they've lost their best forward, best tagger and a couple of handy defenders. Fortunately for them, they face a Magpie lineup thats a shadow of the 2007 version. They'll miss Fraser, but they have a pretty full list to choose from. Collingwood have a poor recent record at the Dome and have been pumped by the Saints in their last 3 visits. The Pies have more match winners with Cloke, Didak and Medhurst swinging my tip in their favour, but I wont be betting in it. The Tigers have had a tough draw so far and it doesn't get any easier facing the Cats tomorrow. The weather will turn nasty for this match and that wont help the Tigers one bit. They find it hard enough to hit targets when its dry. Plus the Cats have the best wet weather players in the game with Ablett, Bartel and Selwood. It's time for the Tigers to be brought back to reality and no one hands out thrashing like the Cats as the Tigers know full well. The first coach sacked betting doesn't look right without Wallace being favourite. Port go to their favourite ground tomorrow and have a huge chance of providing the upset over the Hawks. In their previous trips to Launceston, Port have never conceded more than 12 goals in a game there and would be unbeaten at the ground if it wasn't for a famous Motlop howler. Both teams have their best player missing with Hodge and C.Cornes injured. K.Cornes has a great record over Mitchell and Port's versatility up forward will cause Hawthorn headaches. I think Port can stop Hawthorn's midfield and grab a crucial away win. It's about time Brisbane showed the football world where they belong in the grand scheme of things. They have a top 8 list, but they aren't consistent enough to be there. A good team doesn't drop games like these, but it's hard to be confident looking at what they've produced so far. The Blues will be confident after disposing of the Eagles, but their defence is no match for Brown and Bradshaw. The lowest crowd in years will head to Cararra to watch North vs West Coast. The Kangaroos will overpower the Eagles in the midfield and restrict the Eagles forwards to a losing score. Gibson returning is a big inclusion for North. Adelaide have made a habit of pole-axing Melbourne in recent years and Sunday will be no different. Essendon welcome back some of their stars against Sydney, but they'll still get smashed. Which Freo will show up this week? The one that monstered the reigning premiers or the one that was humbled by the wooden spooner by 10 goals. I can't answer it, so I can't pick them. Their injury list isn't doing them any favours, but they'll serve it right up to the Bulldogs. Hard to go against the Dogs seeing as they've hardly put a foot wrong so far. Players missing from best 22's. 2 - Collingwood, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide 3 - Geelong, Sydney 4 - W.Bulldogs 5 - Richmond, Carlton, Brisbane, North Melb, Adelaide 6 - St.Kilda 7 - West Coast, Fremantle 8 - Melbourne, Essendon Interesting to note that the teams with most of their best players out occupy the bottom four spots on the table. Predictor. Collingwood by 16, Geelong by 40, Hawthorn by 5, Brisbane by 3, North Melb by 16, Adelaide by 56, Sydney by 44, W.Bulldogs by 20. Best Bets. Port Adelaide LINE (+15.5) Western Bulldogs MARGIN (1-39) Brisbane WIN Good luck on the punt.

[Afl Round 7]

Re: Afl Round 7 I'm finding the going tough at present trying to get my best bets home. The favourites are saluting and it's difficult to pinpoint a good outsider to get the job done. Fremantle and Port Adelaide look near certainties this afternoon, but the game at the SCG could test us. The Bulldogs haven't been spoken off in the same terms as Geelong and Hawthorn because they need to take a big scalp on the road. Of course, it's not their fault they haven't travelled yet, but the footy world wants to see them beat tough opposition interstate before jumping on their bandwagon. They have a tough month ahead and a couple of wins in that time should go along way towards locking up a top four finish. The Swans return to their true home where they love smashing teams especially good ones. I'm a little concerned about the Swans forward line with Hall and Davis missing, but they tend to rack up big scores at the SCG. Bulldogs haven't won their for years and Eade has never beaten his old team. The Bulldogs are definitely value, but the Swans should get home. Players missing from best 22's. 3- Port Adelaide 4- W.Bulldogs 5- Sydney 6- Melbourne 7- Essendon 8- Fremantle. Predictor. W.Bulldogs by 14, Fremantle by 26, Port Adelaide by 50. Best Bet. Port Adelaide LINE (-25.5). Good punting and hope you are going better than I've been.

[Afl Round 7]

Re: Afl Round 7 I must say the odds on some games are a little more lob-sided than I thought, because this round is by far the toughest so far to snag a few winners. You have to admire the love the punters have for Carlton this week. It reminds me of last year when they firmed into favouritism against the Hawks with Franklin a late withdrawl, and then proceeded to get hammered by 100 points. Granted that Carlton's midfield is superior to West Coast's and the Eagles have some of their best players missing, but look at Carlton's back line. It's as bad as at any stage last year, and as bad as we have ever seen. McKinley and Jones have performed well so far and if Lynch and Wirrpanda can fire up, the Blues wont stop them. Their supply is the question mark, but if they can get the ball inside 50 a similar amount of times to Carlton, the Eagles will win. Fevola should be held by Glass and their ruck division is poor. I'll stick with the Eagles at home, but they need a lot of things to go their way to get over the line. The Cats wont get it their own way against the Lions, but should still prevail. Last week would have been a shock to the system and they'll be keen to show the footy world they are still the team to beat. The Lions were average last week and need to lift. Brown is in doubt and if he doesn't play, they'll be battling to kick 8 goals not unlike their last 2 trips to Skilled Stadium. The Magpies haven't taken a decent scalp yet this season, but that should change tomorrow. The 8 day break vs. 6 day break is the major factor in me tipping the Pies. Collingwood's forwards, besides Rocca, have returned to form and this could expose Hawthorn's defence. The Pies have the stoppers to clamp Hawthorn's midfield from giving Roughead and Franklin quality supply. The Hawks are overdue for a loss, and the Pies have the capabilities to deliver it to them. I have no idea how the Richmond vs. St.Kilda game will go. Richmond were fortunate to have been so close to the Hawks last week, but they did play well. The Saints are at a T-intersection. Even they dont know were they are headed, so how are we supposed to know. The Crows have lost 2 key defenders for their game against North, with Rutten and Symes out. They aren't doing anything special, but they are getting the job done most importantly. The Kangaroos are finding it hard to play 4 quarters and could easily have 2 more wins on the board. I expect a dour, low-scoring struggle at AAMI with the Crows keeping the unbeaten run at home intact. Players missing from best 22's. 1- Collingwood, Hawthorn 3- Geelong 4- Brisbane 5- Carlton, Richmond, St.Kilda, Adelaide, North Melb. 8- West Coast. Predictor. Carlton by 14, Geelong by 22, Collingwood by 2, St.Kilda by 10, Adelaide by 6. Best Bets. West Coast WIN Collingwood WIN. All the best with your tips. It's not going to be easy.

[AFL Rd. 6.]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. Well done Taza for being on the right side of the game total in today's game. I managed to get on myself and multied into the Adelaide line and all was well until Adelaide got those double whammy goals. The last 5 minutes was hard to sit through, but we got the result in the end. It's been an interesting round so far, with the poor teams starting to get left behind. Heart goes out to the Dockers who did everything right against the Cats but win. The last 10 minutes of the 2nd quarter was unexplainable by the Dockers and eventually cost them the match. Dockers aren't out of it yet, but need to beat Melbourne next week to get back in the race. The Eagles are losing troops at a rapid rate and might put the cue in the rack shortly. They are miserable away from home now and are carrying way too many passengers. Their game style now doesn't suit the players in that team now. The Dogs are disposing of the poor teams easily and now have a stranglehold on a finals berth. Brisbane were superb last week without winning and will belt Melbourne. Bradshaw and Brown will have big days and the Lions midfield should cut Melbourne up. The Hawks will be tested by the Tigers who are using their pace to put sides off. They've been tagging effectively lately, and I'd expect Mitchell and Bateman to have some close attention. Wet conditions are expected and it should be a good contest, but I think the Hawks will sneak home. The Kangaroos returned to their best last week and if they can reproduce that form, they should be able to handle the Swans. Scoring power is a concern for the Swans with Hall missing and O'Loughlin and Davis struggling for form. Players missing from best 22's. 1- Hawthorn 3- North Melb. 4- Sydney 5- Brisbane, Melbourne, Richmond. Predictor. Brisbane by 34, Sydney by 6, Hawthorn by 26. Suggested Bet. North Melbourne WIN.

[AFL Rd. 6.]

Re: AFL Rd. 6. There are plenty of injury concerns leading into the Anzac game at the MCG. All will be revealed soon enough, but whoever Collingwood are forced to leave out, it's hard to see them being beaten. The loss of Davey for Essendon will be a huge void to fill, not to mention missing Lucas and McVeigh. Even if Collingwood lose Rocca or Swan, there evenness across the board will get them home comfortably. Looking at the medal I'd be looking at Pendlebury, Lockyer and Cloke. The Dockers have been belted twice by the Cats in their last 2 visits and another win looks on the cards for Geelong. Their midfield should cut the Dockers to ribbons with Stokes, Johnson and Chapman to cause all sort of mayhem up forward. Dockers need a competitive performance to keep the pressure of Harvey, who is yet to prove he can decent coach. Geelong to win but it wont be a blowout. If the Crows are to entertain thoughts of a top 4 finish, they can't afford to drop games like this. They'll need to improve on last weeks effort when they nearly let the Dockers over run them. Knights back into the team is a great inclusion and boosts their midfield. The Blues did what they had to last week, but were far from impressive. Their forwards have a tough task to combat Adelaide's defence with Johncock and McLeod easily running the loose ball out. The Crows should be too strong for Carlton. Port are finding it hard to play four quarters and they'll need to so to beat the Saints. I'm surprised Gehrig wasn't recalled against a below standard Port defence. It should be a close game like it typically is, but I fancy Port at home. The Bulldogs just seem to be off a little at the moment struggling against a couple of ordinary sides in the last fortnight. Fortunately, they face another struggler tomorrow night with the Eagles going horribly. It's just impossible to see the Eagles kick a big score to match what the Bulldogs will kick. Too many passengers for the Eagles at the moment. Players missing from best 22's. 2- Port Adelaide. 3- Collingwood, Geelong. 4- Adelaide, W.Bulldogs. 5- Essendon, Carlton, St.Kilda. 6- Fremantle, West Coast. Predictor. Collingwood by 18, Geelong by 34, Adelaide by 3, W.Bulldogs by 26, St.Kilda by 1. Suggested Bets. Collingwood MARGIN (1-39) Adelaide WIN. Good luck to you all.

[Afl Rd. 5.]

Re: Afl Rd. 5. Let's hope this week on the punt goes a little better than last. The Saints have lost a fair bit of credibilty since the season began and it's about time they stamped their authority on 2008. Perhaps I have overrated the Saints. Last week's game against Geelong was probably the best we've seen of the Saints so far, yet still were soundly beaten by a superior unit. The omission of Gehrig shouldn't hurt them too much because he would have been exposed against Essendon's defence. The leg speed issue is hurting the Saints and can be exploited by the Bombers. McVeigh being out for Essendon severely weakens their midfield and their depth through the middle is shallow. It's time the Saints showed us how good they are and I expect them to thrash Essendon tonight. The Swans will return to lockdown mode tomorrow against the Cats, but it wont work. The Swans forward setup might take the Cats by surprise with Hall missing, but the Cats have too much running power for the Swans. I wonder will Rooke be called on to blanket Goodes again. The Dockers were dreadful last week and face the Crows who'll be wounded as well. The Dockers have a terrific record against Adelaide, but you have to wonder where the Dockers are headed when they start bringing the oldies back. The Crows have been one of the better performed teams so far and shouldn't have too many difficulties disposing off the Dockers. Collingwood vs North is too hard to assess because they are a carbon copy of one another. Same strengths, same weaknesses, a few stars and a blue collar work ethic. They are just so similar. The Lions got out of jail last week against a tired Port off the back of the showdown. Black, Power and Lappin started getting back to top form and will appreciate the slow track. The Hawks are strenghtened with Croad, Lewis and Mitchell back and they'll need to be at their best to knock of the Lions. Their record at the Gabba is woeful and they struggle to kick a competitive score there. The wet conditions will suit the Lions and I expect them to have a comfortable win. The Blues are talking finals after beating the Magpies last week, but what little credibility they have is put on the line against Melbourne. Fevola and Fisher will be a handful for Melbourne, but the Demons should be able to break even in the midfield with Neitz and Robertson well overdue to do something. The odds look skewed too much in Carlton's favour. The value for Melbourne is definitely attractive. The Dogs are sneaking under the radar and should notch a 5th victory over Richmond. They are playing well as a unit and showed some fighting spirit to overpower the Bombers last week. The Tigers didn't beat much last week and their record at the Dome is poor. The Bulldogs should have a 5 goal victory. The disappointments of 2008 so far do battle in Perth on Sunday. Port have only really had the 1 poor game, but need more out of K.Cornes, Cassisi and S.Burgoyne. The Eagles only seem to be competitive at home now and their midfield is struggling to get the ball forward. An even contest, but I fancy Port. Players missing from best 22's. 1- Hawthorn. 2- Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane, Carlton, Port Adelaide. 4- St.Kilda, Essendon, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, West Coast. 5- Sydney, Adelaide, Fremantle, Richmond. Predictor. St,Kilda by 21, Geelong by 25, Adelaide by 26, Collingwood by 20, Hawthorn by 15, Carlton by 9, Western Bulldogs by 36, Port Adelaide by 12. Suggested Bets. St.Kilda POINTS (-23.5) Brisbane WIN Western Bulldogs LINE (-17.5). Good luck to you all.

[AFL Round 4]

Re: AFL Round 4 There have been plenty of talking points out of the round so far. Does Essendon's new style of play impact on all their soft tissue injuries? Why do Kangaroos supporters continually let their team down by not going to games? A pitiful attendance at the MCG today and it is going to cost the Kangaroos big dollars to cover expenses. Alot of West Coast players are now being exposed as average players with Cousins and Judd gone. How long will Barry Hall be suspended for? What has gone wrong with Port Adelaide? Plus, we still have 3 games to go. The game in Launceston is the match of the round. We know that it should be close and alot hinges on any late changes. It looks likely that Mitchell and Boyle will miss for the Hawks with Clarke and Williams coming in. The Crows have doubts on Porplyzia and Bassett. The Crows have a great record after showdowns with a 15-6 win-loss record and 8-3 on the road. It's very much a 50/50 game and the current prices suggest that the Crows are super value. Clearances will be key to this contest with Hawthorn being the one of the best so far and the Crows being one of the worst to this stage. I'll tip the Hawks in a thriller. The Magpies will comfortably handle the Blues at the MCG in a similar fashion to the way they beat the Tigers last week. It should be entertaining with plenty of goals to be kicked. I fancy Rocca and Didak will have a day out. The Tigers head to Perth and have a habit of making the Dockers work hard for their victories. Richmond have enough dangerous forwards to make life interesting for Freo's defence, but they need to find some consistency. The Dockers need to nail these games if they are to feature in September. Team Strength and Predictor. Hawthorn (81%) v Adelaide (81%), Hawthorn by 3 points. Carlton (83%) v Collingwood (90%), Collingwood by 26 points. Fremantle (79%) v Richmond (77%), Fremantle by 27 points. Suggested Bet. Fremantle MARGIN (1-39).