ozorgnax

No you were convinced she would win easily as evidenced by: "Mirjam Björklund to beat Maya Joint at 4.00 with Unibet Easy pick here, Mirjam will beat anyone around Mayas calibre right now and she knows that."

I don't understand why Leyton Orient is by now an outsider against Charlton. OK it's a derby between two strong teams but at home Leyton is much better than Charlton away (9-3-5 and 5-3-7 are their respective records) so I think @2.865 are very nice odds and I'm going with them

Hi all, today there's a match in Segunda Division in Spain between Malaga and Tenerife that seems like a nice opportunity to me. Malaga are 14th with 7-14-6 overall and 5-6-2 at home and Tenerife ar 21st (second to last) with 4-7-16 overall and 0-3-10. H2H is 7-3-0, odds are @2.49 for a home win and I think these are worth to bet on

This belongs to the weekend thread I guess but since there isn't one yet I'll just post it here: Germany Bundesliga 2 Magdeburg v Köln: Magdeburg are 4th overall but they have literally zero wins at home though admittedly they're also hard to beat there (0-7-3). Köln are first with a very respectable away record (6-2-2). Odds are 2.315 - 3.744 - 3.250 respectively at this moment. Makes zero sense to me to be honest so I think I'll dabble on the away win Also I like two draws tonight: Liga Portugal Boavista v Estrela da Amadora: This strikes me as a case of two teams that suck exactly the same amount so yeah odds of @3 seems nice enough for a draw England Premier League Brighton v Chelsea: Chelsea are very unpredictable this year... after having a run of 11 or 12 unbeaten matches they then won only 2 of the last 7. Brighton is even worse, after dispatching Man Utd they lost at home to Everton and the less said about the embarrassing loss at Nottingham the better... I don't know sometimes the draw just seems like the most logical result and for me this is one of those cases

Don't have time for a complete analysis but here are some midweek matches that are strongly indicated by ELO ratings and are worth their odds in my opinion: England Championship: Sunderland v Luton --> 1 Plymouth v Millwall --> 2 with extra risk: Coventry v QPR --> Lay Coventry England League 1: Chartlon v Peterborough --> 1 All thoughts/opinions are welcome

The match between Hertha and Kaiserslautern in Bundesliga 2 seems a nice one. Hertha are 13th with 25 points (7-4-9) overall but at home they have won just 7 points (2-1-6). Kaiserslautern are 4th with 35 points (10-5-5) overall and their away record is 5-2-3. Why the hell they are the outsiders in this seems beyond me and I'll pay to find out @3.7

I rather liked Brest to beat Nantes in France today... Some juicy odds there especially considering Nantes is atrocious at home but then I saw that Brest have the big CL match against PSG later this week so now I'm worrying they might rest some key players today...

Canada vs Hungary series is played in Canada though... Maybe the transatlantic flight from Canada to Europe will have an effect on this match?

He just made a prediction before the match, I don't remember grabbing you by the hand and forcing you to back it. Let's see your picks then

Thanks! Bilbao and Notts County are my strongest bets. I have also backed Sheffield but with a smaller stake since @freddie01 alerted me to some absences. Best of luck to all

I've decided to write a long post containing some of my thoughts concerning weekend matches. This is mainly because in order to write this I have to look at the matches more closely and this helps me decide what to ultimately bet on. Any feedback is of course welcome. All of the following matches are suggested by ELO ratings (for whatever this may worth). Of course these are not the only ones but these were confirmed by a further look at standings home/away form, or maybe just my hunches England Premier League Ipswich vs Southampton: OK both teams suck but I think recently Southampton sucks less I mean at least they try... if you look at their stats they have shots on target, corners etc. Ipswich seems worn down before the game starts. I'd favor laying Ipswich at the exchanges at about @1.93 Man Utd vs Crystal Palace: In another time this would be a no brainer but nobody can trust Manchester this year. Palace are no poushover as attested by their standinds (just 2 points less than Man Utd). Away they have 16 points in 11 matches while Man have the same points in 12 matches. I think draw no bet for Palace @2.75 is worth a shot England Championship Oxford vs Bristol City: They are separated by 8 places (Oxford are 16th, Bristol are 8th) but only 5 points in the standings. The thing is though that both are home teams. Oxford have won 28 of their 36 points at home while ristol have only won 15 of their 41 points away from home. Given also the ELO ratings I would wager a small bet for a straight home win @3.4 or a medium bet at draw-no-bet @2.27 Derby vs Sheff Utd: Difference is huge between them. Sheffield are 2nd with 58 points (28 of them away from home), Derby are 3rd from the bottom with 27 points (20 of them at home). I would like something more for the away win than @2.178 but I'll take it Millwall vs QPR: This is one of those cases that odds seem quite baffling to me. OK, Millwall have won 2 matches in a row but they were against 21st-ranked Portsmouth and 23rd-ranked Luton. In the table there's not much to separate these two, in fact QPR are ranked one point higher. Home and away records are about the same respectively (21 points in 15 matches and 18 points in 14 matches for QPR). Away win is @3.6 and draw-no-bet is @2.52, I think these are very much worth it Swansea vs Coventry: I'm a sucker for draws and this seems a nice opportunity for one. Coventry a bit better ranked and with much better form (10 points in the last 5 compared to just 1 point in the last 5 for Swansea) but also Swansea are better at home (20 points) than Coventry away from home (14 points). @3.50 seems a nice price for a draw to me England League Two Gillingham vs Notts County: This seems easy enough but in these leagues you learn quickly that there's nothing easy Notts County are 3rd with 47 points and Gillingham are 17th with 32 points. They look like they're comfotable in the second half of the table avoiding any relegation troubles so I don't see much motivation while Notts County are locked in a battle for a direct promotion spot (behind Walsall in all likelihood). @2.139 seems a fair price to me for an away win Germany Bundesliga Bochum vs Freiburg: This may seem like crazy thinking since Bochum is firmly last with only 10 points while Freiburg are 10th with 27 points but if we compare home matches for Bochum (9 matches - 9 points) with away matches for Freiburg (10 matches - 8 points) a more even picture appears. Also add to the mix the atrocious form of Freiburg (1 point in 5 matches) and the quite decent of Bochum (7 points in the last 5 and remember that their sum total is 10 point in 19 matches which means they started with 3 points in 14 matches!!!) plus the ELO ratings, I think I could stomach placing a small bet on them @2.92 St. Pauli vs Augsburg: Also another nice candidate for a draw. Both have the same form 9 points in the last 5. St. Pauli at home have 8 points in 9 matches and it's exactly the same for Augsburg's away matches. Augsburg a bit better ranked overall with 5 points more but I think I will go with the draw @3.258 with a small cover bet on Augsburg @3.356 Union Berlin vs Leipzig: Continuing the draws, how about this match? ELO ratings are as close to one another as possible. Leipzig a better team overall but Union have more points at home (with one match less I might add) than Leipzig have away from home. I understand this is riskier than the other but I would still like to put some money on the draw @3.6 Spain La Liga Real Betis vs Bilbao: Perhaps the strongest bet for me is this. Bilbao are much better ranked (12 pts more) have better away record than Betis home record, better form in the last 5 and the ELO ratings massively favour them. What more would you want before placing a nice bet on them @2.53??

Cheers, that's exactly why I wanted to post these beforehand because I'm sure there is a lot of relevant info that I'm missing

Will re-post in the relevant thread about weekend matches when it opens but here goes... let's hear some thoughts! I've decided to write a long post containing some of my thoughts concerning weekend matches. This is mainly because in order to write this I have to look at the matches more closely and this helps me decide what to ultimately bet on. Any feedback is of course welcome. All of the following matches are suggested by ELO ratings (for whatever this may worth). Of course these are not the only ones but these were confirmed by a further look at standings home/away form, or maybe just my hunches England Premier League Ipswich vs Southampton: OK both teams suck but I think recently Southampton sucks less I mean at least they try... if you look at their stats they have shots on target, corners etc. Ipswich seems worn down before the game starts. I'd favor laying Ipswich at the exchanges at about @1.93 Man Utd vs Crystal Palace: In another time this would be a no brainer but nobody can trust Manchester this year. Palace are no poushover as attested by their standinds (just 2 points less than Man Utd). Away they have 16 points in 11 matches while Man have the same points in 12 matches. I think draw no bet for Palace @2.75 is worth a shot England Championship Oxford vs Bristol City: They are separated by 8 places (Oxford are 16th, Bristol are 8th) but only 5 points in the standings. The thing is though that both are home teams. Oxford have won 28 of their 36 points at home while ristol have only won 15 of their 41 points away from home. Given also the ELO ratings I would wager a small bet for a straight home win @3.4 or a medium bet at draw-no-bet @2.27 Derby vs Sheff Utd: Difference is huge between them. Sheffield are 2nd with 58 points (28 of them away from home), Derby are 3rd from the bottom with 27 points (20 of them at home). I would like something more for the away win than @2.178 but I'll take it Millwall vs QPR: This is one of those cases that odds seem quite baffling to me. OK, Millwall have won 2 matches in a row but they were against 21st-ranked Portsmouth and 23rd-ranked Luton. In the table there's not much to separate these two, in fact QPR are ranked one point higher. Home and away records are about the same respectively (21 points in 15 matches and 18 points in 14 matches for QPR). Away win is @3.6 and draw-no-bet is @2.52, I think these are very much worth it Swansea vs Coventry: I'm a sucker for draws and this seems a nice opportunity for one. Coventry a bit better ranked and with much better form (10 points in the last 5 compared to just 1 point in the last 5 for Swansea) but also Swansea are better at home (20 points) than Coventry away from home (14 points). @3.50 seems a nice price for a draw to me England League Two Gillingham vs Notts County: This seems easy enough but in these leagues you learn quickly that there's nothing easy Notts County are 3rd with 47 points and Gillingham are 17th with 32 points. They look like they're comfotable in the second half of the table avoiding any relegation troubles so I don't see much motivation while Notts County are locked in a battle for a direct promotion spot (behind Walsall in all likelihood). @2.139 seems a fair price to me for an away win Germany Bundesliga Bochum vs Freiburg: This may seem like crazy thinking since Bochum is firmly last with only 10 points while Freiburg are 10th with 27 points but if we compare home matches for Bochum (9 matches - 9 points) with away matches for Freiburg (10 matches - 8 points) a more even picture appears. Also add to the mix the atrocious form of Freiburg (1 point in 5 matches) and the quite decent of Bochum (7 points in the last 5 and remember that their sum total is 10 point in 19 matches which means they started with 3 points in 14 matches!!!) plus the ELO ratings, I think I could stomach placing a small bet on them @2.92 St. Pauli vs Augsburg: Also another nice candidate for a draw. Both have the same form 9 points in the last 5. St. Pauli at home have 8 points in 9 matches and it's exactly the same for Augsburg's away matches. Augsburg a bit better ranked overall with 5 points more but I think I will go with the draw @3.258 with a small cover bet on Augsburg @3.356 Union Berlin vs Leipzig: Continuing the draws, how about this match? ELO ratings are as close to one another as possible. Leipzig a better team overall but Union have more points at home (with one match less I might add) than Leipzig have away from home. I understand this is riskier than the other but I would still like to put some money on the draw @3.6 Spain La Liga Real Betis vs Bilbao: Perhaps the strongest bet for me is this. Bilbao are much better ranked (12 pts more) have better away record than Betis home record, better form in the last 5 and the ELO ratings massively favour them. What more would you want before placing a nice bet on them @2.53??

@harry_rag Colchester v Port Vale postponed due to waterlogged pitch :-(

It's been a long while since my tennis betting days but is really Coric so far gone that he's @1.86 against Lestienne? I see his recent matches feature more losses than wins (putting it mildly) but his opposition was a lot stronger than Lestienne's. Maybe worth a bet?

Will go with the draw between Huddersfield and Birmingham. Not much to separate these two, Huddersfield is excellent at home (8-3-3) and Birmingham is excellent away from home (8-3-2). ELO ratings are also very close so I reckon a small wager on the draw is justified

It's really sad to see Ajla's decline... she used to be a great player, what happened?

No significant absence as far as I can see... A defender that got red carded last game won't play but he only played in 4 matches this season so I doubt his absence will have a big impact

Quite agree with draw no bet... As to any news about the team, let's hope someone has more info and can tell us something we don't know

Port Vale to beat Colchester seems a pretty nice bet. Can't figure out the reason for these odds. They have 11 more points, they are the best away team in the league and are also strongly supported by ELO ratings. Currently @3.55 in the exchanges

Yeah I completely agree, for me its big advantage is that it can narrow down a big field of matches for those of us that are pressed for time. Of course it will leave out potential bets but it's up to you to make a more extensive search if you want.

Nice!

How about tomorrow's Europa League match between Fenerbahce and Lyon? Don't the odds seem too high for the visitors? 4-1-1 record vs 2-2-2 for the home team. Unless it's one of those things where they have already qualified for next phase and will field a lot of bench players

Unfortunately Portsmouth have dropped to @2.54 right now... Should have backed them earlier

Yeah Oxford was my main bet and thankfully they won Also Charlton did the job although they must have been lucky considering stats were very much in Bolton's favour... Anyway today I was thinking of backing Portsmouth against Stoke with a small bet on the draw for cover. Both are struggling but ratings for the last matches are better for the home team and also last six games at home were 5-1-0 for Portsmouth (5-4-3 overall) and last six games away for Stoke were 0-3-3 (2-4-7 overall and admittedly Stoke's opponents were better ranked in this six match sample). Right now Portsmouth is a small favourite at @2.8 at the exchanges. Thoughts?