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Must admit I have no idea why Crosshill has been confirmed as a place given the field went down to 7 and I was very surprised to see I had been paid out. I can only think that it in Australia the place terms when you put the bet on are honored, but I honestly don't know. Still I will take it and nice to have Hurry Cane win as well. Saunter Boy was a frustrating beat and Nelson was a deserved winner.

The first all jumps card of the season comes from Pakenham and at this stage I have had chance to look at the non maiden races. Rather handily my mother in law lives in Pakenham and it was chucking it down with rain all Saturday evening and there is more rain planned during Sunday as well so I am expecting it to be Heavy ground.   Race 3 The first winner of 1 of the season and I would be a little surprised if one of the ex classy European horses didn't take this. It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 3 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He went hurdling at the last meeting of the season and despite not jumping all that well, his flat class told late on and he was a good winner in the end. This prep he has had a flat run and whilst he finished last he was beaten less than 3L. He then trialled over hurdles and his jumping again left a little to be desired although he did show a nice turn of foot at the end.    Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He trialled over hurdles again at Yarra Valley and his jumping actually wasn't as good, but they didn't go very quick which I don't think helped.   Of the rest Cotton Eye Joe was quite well beaten by Port Guillaume at Ballarat last year and I'm not sure he's improved on what he's done this season. Fabalot bolted up on that Ballarat card, but it was a very weak contest so I wouldn't want to go overboard on that.    Given we are looking at a heavy track and Nelson's only run on it was in the Ballysax Stakes back in 2018 when only 4 runners so I guess that is a little query whereas Port Guillaume's hurdles win was on a Heavy 10. I don't think there is as much between the two as the betting suggests, especially on the ground, so will have a small play on the ex-French horse   Port Guillaume 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 Great to see the return of Saunter Boy who won this race last year and ended up being unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles last season. His rating obviously keeps going up and he has to give a lot of weight away to the rest, but I still think he will be hard to beat as he has trialled well and ran well on the flat at Bendigo as prep for this.   Instigator was solid enough when last seen over hurdles in 2021 before missing 2022. He has returned in good form on the flat in 2 runs this prep including last time. Didn't show his hand in his hurdle trials and whilst he may have improved since 2021 I think he will need to if he is going to beat Saunter Boy.   Heir To The Throne was 2nd in his first two hurdle runs last year and then won two on the bounce, but as impressive as he looked, they were pretty weak contests. He certainly won't lack for fitness though as he has already run 7 times on the Flat this and has been running well in decent contests. I'd say it is more his flat runs that have meant he is the price he is.   It is hard to make a case for the others and I if he remains in the form he was in last year then Saunter Boy will be hard to beat.   Saunter Boy 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill   Race 5 Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. The big concern for me though would be if the ground is confirmed as being very testing. He did win a novice hurdle on soft ground, but connections seemed very keen to keep him to better ground and the vast majority of his runs were on good ground. He was also a non-runner on soft ground so if the track gets into the heavy range then he might struggle.   I thought Under The Bridge was going to win at Hamilton, but he faded on the run-in after making his move at about the 800m mark having been held up off the pace. That should have set him up nicely for this nicely for this and given he won on a Heavy 10 last year he won't mind what the weather does.   They aren't messing around with sending Epizeel over fences after his two hurdle runs this season. He won first up in a maiden and then ran well enough to finish 2nd last time. I watched his steeple at Yarra Valley and he jumped well enough, but he did make one very bad mistake. I'd rather watch to see how he gets on than back him in this.   In the same race Epizeel was 2nd in I put up former New Zealand runner Hurry Cane and like Under The Bridge he loomed large only to get tired late on. He now goes over fences and he should have benefitted plenty from that run which should give him a good chance here.   I'd be surprised if anything else managed to win. It will be fascinating to see how Rockstar Ronnie matches up to the Australian chasers, but if it gets heavy then I think he is worth taking on and I will split stakes on Under The Bridge and Hurry Can who will both improve for their runs at Hamilton.   Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred Hurry Cane 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365   Race 6 I've been really excited to see Stern Idol run over fences because his trails over fences have been really good. He came over from France and looked like the best jumper in Australia until Cheltenham 3rd Bell Ex One came over and beat him at Ballarat. As well as looking good in his trials he even won on the flat at Sandown last time and it is no real surprise to see him long odds on here.   When Bell Ex One and Stern Idol were running last season I did mention that I thought we would see more European horses go over to Australia and as well as Rockstar Ronnie in the previous race we also see Crosshill here. He was trained by Jessica Harrington and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. When I was looking back through his form though he beat Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia which just highlights how much prize money can be won to cover that. He has had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus.    Vanguard and Britannicus were 1st and 2nd in the Brierly last season and will no doubt be using this race as a stepping stone to that contest this year. Neither of those two are as good as Stern Idol and Crosshill for me though. I was all set to put up Stern Idol even at long odds on, but the value has to be with Crosshill who is an e/w price. His form in Ireland should mean he chould be one of the leading jumpers in Australia and given the flat runs for fitness he should be fit enough to do himself justice.   Crosshill 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

Yes all the others will be covered. Been on holiday which has delayed things but will be up Thursday or Friday.

National League This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.   Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.   I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.   The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.   Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.   I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.   Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs.    I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.   Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.   There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.   The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.   Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365 Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only) York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.

Wealdstone v Dorking Wealdstone have only picked up one point in their last 7 games and you certainly get the sense they have run out of steam after their flirtation with the play-offs ended. If there was one game I would have said wouldn't have ended goalless it would have been Gateshead v Dorking although with the home side having an xG of 3.14 it clearly shows it shouldn't have ended 0-0. Whilst Dorking may have had some good fortune in getting a point, it did continue their superb run of form where they have only lost to Woking in their last 7, winning 5 of them. In that Woking game they were unlucky to lose as well. Even though they have secured a 2nd season at this level I still think Dorking look value to win at a side badly out of form.     Taunton v Worthing Taunton have not played well in their last 2 games and Worthing look well placed to beat them. Taunton have lost 2-0 to Dulwich and 3-0 to Hungerford, both sides in a relegation battle and in the case of the latter more than likely to go down. Worthing still need 1 more win to be certain of a play-off spot and if they can get 5th then they will be at home in the first round of the play-offs, so they have plenty still to play for. The other thing is they are clearly the better side so even money and a shade of odds on look worth taking.    Alfreton v Blyth Spartans A huge game for both clubs as the home side are trying to get into the play-offs and the away side are trying in the division. Alfreton drew against Gloucester last Saturday, but were very lucky to get a point and I was told by mates at the game that they looked very tired. They then went to Banbury on Tuesday night and again got very lucky to get another point. They have had a tough schedule trying to play catch-up on their games and Blyth are giving themselves a great chance of staying up. Their win on Tuesday at Farsley was huge as they are now out of the relegation zone on goal difference on the same points as Farsley. Farsley don't often lose at home so it was a very good win. If they can carry that form into this then I think they have a chance of beating an under performing Alfreton.   Southport v Kidderminster 6 defeats on the bounce for the home side and I really like Kidderminster here who look a great bet at odds against. Given how much they have struggled for wins and goals for most of the season it is rather surprising that they have managed to get themselves in with a chance of getting a play-off spot. They have only lost to Chester in their last 10 games and in that spell have conceded just 4 times. They have won 4 on the bounce including a huge 2-0 win at Fylde and they really ought to be winning this which may make things nervy for Southport depending on results elsewhere.   Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley (Isthmian Premier) The home side have already announced that their manager is leaving after the season ends on Saturday. They haven't won in 6 games and they lost to Potters Bar last Saturday which takes some doing. I wonder how motivated the players will be given they don't have a manager to impress and with Wingate winning 3 on the bounce they might just have a chance of winning this.   Merthyr v Hayes & Yeading (Southern Premier South) Hayes have had a really tough week. They beat Tiverton 7-0 on Monday, then had a cup final on Wednesday before going to Tiverton and drawing 0-0 on Thursday. That's a lot of football and with nothing on this game it would be no surprise if they are flagging a bit. Merthyr haven't played all week and on the whole they have been strong at home this season so I am happy to back them home team. Must admit I wasn't expecting the home side to be such a big price as I only checked Bet365 to start with and they are a fair bit shorter than everyone else.   Kings Langley v AFC Rushden & Diamonds (Southern Premier Central) Two relegated sides and whilst Rushden conceded in injury time last week it still continued their good run. They did have to play on Thursday night and lost to Rushall which wasn't a huge surprise. Kings Langley haven't won in 7 games and have picked up just two points in that time. Rushden just look too big a price again to pick up a final 3 points of the season as they have been playing better than their hosts.   Nantwich v Radcliffe (Northern Premier) Both sides need 3 points here as only a win will do for Nantwich in an attempt to stay up, but a draw on Thursday night has probably cost them their chance of survival. Radcliffe really should be in the play-offs, but too many draws has meant they are out of them on goal difference going into the final day of the season. That is highlighted by the fact they have lost 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6. I think they can win this though and possibly get themselves into the play-offs.   Dorking 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 13/8) Worthing 2.5pts @ 10/11 as sent earlier Kidderminster 3pts @ 11/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 4/5) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Merthyr 1pt @ 21/10 @ Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4) Rushden & Diamonds 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (BetVictor are 27/10 and take up to 15/8) Radcliffe 1pt @ 5/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

Good luck all