Sporting Sam
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Posts
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Posts posted by Sporting Sam
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Lucky last at leafy 🥬
1535
MUMMYAZ
Win
Kanohi Breeze
each way
the draw data horse based on an assessment of the leading horses in last year’s contest. Very lightly raced unexposed and open to any amount of improvement and in double first time hear gear here. Free energy horse too.
SIXTIES CHIC
Still way below first rating mark only used in a maiden. Duly won off much lower on h/c all weather debut and likely the one to beat here
Nordic glory
Down to winning mark and occupies bottom weight course and distance winner and sure to be in the shake up.
COMBINATION TRICAST ALL FOUR RUNNERS
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Lingfield 1505
ACE ROTHSTEIN
EACH WAY
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Prince Ali
Win
BLUE HERO
Each way
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Wolverhampton 2000
miss dynamic
each way
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Wolverhampton 1700
Rockonmecca
each way
Kenstone
win
profile of top horses nothing special and rickonmecca plummeted since class five days and mark of mulhreanan recently prominent,
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Group 1 race
Del mar 2235
Group 1 del mar 2325
SURGE CAPACITY
Win
FLUFFY SOCKS
Each way
Trainer has four darts 🎯 here but these two may well be the best of the quartet for a trainer who has won five of the last six runnings..
Surge capacity has by far the best of the draw, stall three in a group race. Whitebeam races for juddemonte here and for breeding purposes looks a class horse, but given the pace angle that Chad Brown may be looking to exploit with four runners drawn around the field covering the spread of the field with weights and the draw which may play into the hands of these two if they go off speedily. … -
Carlisle 1520
SEA GOD
John McConnell’s long odds on Irish runner is on a hiding to nothing here.
No suprise If this winning pointer gets turned over here for the following reasons.
1 no experience under rules
2. will get no cover in this match bet and needs to probably make all here.
3 the lesser rival has raced over this trip and although 9 th it wasn’t by far and now if getting the trip needs to sit tight or put it up to the challenger. Either way has nothing at all to lose and I expect him to run well under little or no pressure. I sooner back this runner with a modicum of experience and the trip than the raider who won’t be knocked about if his chance goes at the business end…
Bogleyburn
win
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Aqueduct 2017
a graded race reduced by two well drawn non runners.
as a result key horses are
GERRYMANDER
Win
GOOD SAM
WIN WITHOUT GERRYMANDER
these horses are in the same yard and preferrence is for gerrymander who won a match race by 25 lengths.
the form was not franked by the second horse that day, but the fractions were good and the winner was heavily eased.
the odds win without are very favourable and this may be a one yard two horse race.
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Dundalk 1730
DRAW DATA ( give year sample)
STALL 10
Excilla
each way
colin Keane an interesting jockey for Jessica at this stage in the horses career. Coupled with draw data too.
Manhattan dreamer
win
£420 k and us bred plenty of dirt influence here and wouldn’t have to be special to take this
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ZIA PARK
2121
Competitive idea
win
multiple course and distance winner over six furlongs from extreame draw.
Truth seeker
Win
more than once in front of competitive idea in the past.
saver win bet
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I’ve been waiting for this one.
1540 Southwell
Godot
each way
reverse forecast with
the favourite
Hills of Tara
these two are on the traverse at the weights and although Venetias hat trick seeking rising star is well regarded
The top weight Godot may prove a handful.
GODOT WIN WITHOUT HILLS OF TARA
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Sedgefield 1520
the lucky last and it’s a bumper.
Olly Murphy has his string well primed to take advantage of any vaccination programmes from the yards of the top performing horses.
He has a 50% strike rate in these races here and hopefully I’ve gone for the win half of that statistic here.
Just in case I’m wrong the winning pointer of Donald “don’t call me son of Ginger “ McCain may well chip 🍟 in with his debut under rules under the champion jockey. They might go for it here but his horses are often run to get the experience in a bumper this the well bred Hemmings racing horse who’ve had a string of winners in the famous multi millionaire’s silks under the new banner.
DIAMOND GEEZER
Win
reverse forecast
With
DEEP STRATOS
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Zia park 2249
11 - Tiz A Journey
each way
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Ludlow
1550
Metkayina
Jasmine Bliss
both win
profit for the day is already safely tucked away from the kempton race. This is a free bet to nothing with fergal O’Briens runner likely to benefit from surgery and the Irish raider a beaten favourite at Galway and not here to see the roses 🌹
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3 hours ago, Trotter said:
I posted Bourbali in the Nap of the Day comp before I read your post
The outsider does sometimes win in a 2 horse race and my reasoning is that Bourbali will make all which might make the 1/5 ON Favourite go a bit faster than he might want to just to stay in touch ...... there's no other horse to drag the field back to the leader
Kempton has notoriously difficult fences so always risky to back a debut chase ..... particularly one bred for the Flat (by Golden Horn out of a Dutch Art mare, so there's a bit of sprinter in there!) and going into tricky fences a bit faster than you want to looks risky .......
Of course he might just hold back and pick him off at the end but hopefully the Fav will be put under pressure over difficult fences
Nice one Trotter👍
I like to read the reasoning behind a selection and we’ve both come up with different reasons behind our rationale to make an even stronger case for Bourbali but 9/2 Trotter!Lovely Jubbley !!!
I was on the allotment shovelling horse poo 💩 in the rain and stopped off to cheer Bourbali home. I don’t think anyone else was about and my loud cheers on a sunny day might have caused bewilderment!!
!
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Kempton 1325
Bourbalis
win
this is a match race which sees the debut over fences of the high class handicap hurdler First Street for the reknowned trainer Nicky “ it was the vet” Henderson.
No doubt whatsoever there is a distance between these two of a street as first street was prominent at Cheltenham last year and is certain to be well schooled for this debut.
There was a lot ( for) me to like about bourbalis’ debut last week where he led the entire race before pulling up due to a slipped saddle. Even if the saddle holds today, he’s nearly twenty pounds wrong at the ratings and would have to put in a high class repeat performance just to make par. Although this could be settled in a matter of strides and first street will only need be pushed out to put distance between his rival here, the lack of cover has to be an issue for the odds on shot and those buying money 💰 may have a few shaky moments or not. You’ve got to love the underdog sometimes, otherwise what is the point of sport? I’m dangling my carrot 🥕 of eight pounds right under my bookies nose today.
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10 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:
Aqueduct 9:10
Goddess of fire
copper girl
both win
Both unplaced.
WOODBINE 2137
HALLIE’S HERO
Win
drawn in stall eight widest of all and may swoop late if they go off too fast.
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Aqueduct 9:10
Goddess of fire
copper girl
both win
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Sha tin
9:50
I GIVE
Win
Beauty Crescent
Wings of war
both each way
i give
on a five timer and Andrea Atzeni rides for the third time.
Front running style suits this horse and if allowed any kind of lead on this track will be going away again at the end. Has only had to regain lead at the start of this run and has been smooth passage ever since and won going away last time so all depends on what side of the bed jockey has got out of today.
beauty crescent
second selection yet to win in Hong Kong but won a listed stakes race for Ger Lyon’s in Ireland last September.wings of war
mill reef Newbury duty free listed winner two years ago off triple figure ratings. Always going to need run today on debut but throw in at a realistic level and worth looking out for to see how much is needed in future to score in this grade.
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Sha Tin 0915
Romantic Charm
each way
a run in four of twelve in Australia latest under this jockey may help here.
BEAUTYVERSE
Win
beautyverse has not won since Juvenile debut off a mark of 82 but the horse he beat is now rated 95 and thus runner put up a career best last time out in a higher grade when finishing second. Had not placed since winning and runs off a career low mark down in class. A win is imminent and everything looks to be in place today. Best caught today and unlikely to get a better opportunity than here in this company.
There has to be a reason for sliding down from a group winner but the placing signals better times ahead of not today….
””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
I’ve given up posting in two places at once it is impossible unless you do the race reading hours beforehand.
I’ve been to war overnight and backed Equinox in this morning’s Japan cup and the call on the racing forum was to take the odds on, but also to take the 7/4 on the distance of 3+lengths winning margin. He had a suicidal fraction to race after and turned on the afterburners in the home straight to win in sensational style. He had the assistance of stall 2 and the position did him no harm at all. Had he been forced to pace set after a record breaking run just a month ago their may have been a less convincing outcome but the draw was a huge help as was the pace. It isn’t after timing as the selection is listed in several places on that forum.
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26 minutes ago, Sporting Sam said:
Heading to post
Churchill downs
21:48
BOOTH
WINobvious claims and looks very much the class horse here.
MOLLYS TOWN
EACH WAYcannot argue with unbeaten run.
MASSIVE STEP UP HERE BUT MAY BRIDGE THE GAP FROM GOOD DRAW.
Chances and remains 4/4absence of middle stall could be crucial to both selections chances
Well beaten the last two USA races
2118
churchill downs
THORPEDO ANNA
Win
Highly impressive winner and by wide margin both starts
WEST SUNSET
REVERSE FORECAST
equally impressive last time out preference is for the former but a reverse forecast is the saver to the win bet…:
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Heading to post
Churchill downs
21:48
BOOTH
WINobvious claims and looks very much the class horse here.
MOLLYS TOWN
EACH WAYcannot argue with unbeaten run.
MASSIVE STEP UP HERE BUT MAY BRIDGE THE GAP FROM GOOD DRAW.
Chances and remains 4/4absence of middle stall could be crucial to both selections chances
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2110
aqueduct
Mo Damorninggrouch
win
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AQUADUCT 2043
Just Katherine
Each way
Not convinced raging sea can turn around a 1.5 lengths defeat on these terms
Raging sea
Wineven with the massive difference in the ratings there needs to be a big turnaround here for the top rated horse to turn around keenland form on level weights
Racing Chat - Tuesday 5th December
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
Wolverhampton 1930
Whatwouldyouknow
win
hard to oppose in this low low affair
tilt at windmills
each way