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danj2202

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Posts posted by danj2202

  1. Thought the BoSox were going to get there when they came back but alas they couldnt recover from the horseshit served up by Bucholz

    On 4/6/2016, 2:48:37, danj2202 said:

     

    4pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 3.30 Bet365:(

     

    Season record:1-2 (-1.00)

    Todays main selection

     

    4pts Baltimore Orioles (-1.5) to beat Minnesota Twins 2.50 Bet365

    Minnesota have struggled to score runs in this series and Baltimore have taken both games despite being a power filled home run heavy offense against ground ball pitchers sent to the hill by the Twins. Tonight they get to face Minnesotas Phil Hughes who historically has struggled with allowing homers. If Minnesotas bats dont wake up, and they have struggled in the past against Ubaldo Jiminez the O's pitcher this evening then this could be a blowout

     

    Good luck all playing today

  2. Todays main selection

    4 pts Boston Red Sox (-1.5) to beat Cleveland Indians 3.30 Bet365

    Carlos Carrasco is up for Cleveland tonight and they have high hopes that he steps up to the elite next level in Cleveland this year to develop the 1-2 punch of Kluber and Carrasco. His worst month of the season is April though and the last 3 years he has gone 2-6 with a 6.70 ERA in 9 April starts - not good. Clay Bucholz was just about the only highlight in the atrocity that was the Red Sox pitching last year and then he got hurt. If he is as effective now as he was then, with the ay the Red Sox seemingly got on base at will against the excellent Kluber yesterday then they could make an absolute nonsense of this price.

     

    Good luck all who have a play today!!!! :ok

  3. 2 hours ago, slizorn said:

    Welcome back mate, good to see you around again Dan! :welcome

    Hey slizorn, yeah I didnt have the time to post much last year in the end and if I am going to do so I am going to try and do the best I can, will be hoping to stick a selection a day up in here for all the crew that were following me until my disappearance last season. Had a good day with all the tips I put out yesterday including the Dodgers so onwards and up

     

    22 hours ago, danj2202 said:

     

    5 pts LA Dodgers (-1.5) to beat San Diego Padres 2.40 Bet365:)

    So that takes us to

     

    1-1 +3.00 on the thread

  4. so 0-1 -4.00 the season thus far

     

    the pesky rain got involved and my perceived edge on the starters evaporated with the clouds as relief pitching took over after 2 innings :eyes

    Main play today is

    5 pts LA Dodgers (-1.5) to beat San Diego Padres 2.40 Bet365

    The Dodgers destroyed the Padres last night and Kazmir will pitch tonight, despite not having beaten the Friars in his career, only a couple of starts against them, he is solid. He will be opposed by James Shields who if not for Pablo Sandoval may have signed the worst contract in baseball last season. He led MLB in HRs allowed last year even managing to allow 19 at cavernous PETCO Park. Unless he has turned it all around in the offseason he may well get hit in this game as well as the Dodgers appear to be swinging the lumber very well. Wouldnt put you off buying some runs on the alternate run lines either

  5. I really like the look of the Astros this year, took a great stride last year and are a young improving team, they also dont have that albatross of the curse of the billy goat and 100+ years of futility that the Cubs will have to struggle with until they win one.

     

    Washington look primed for a run this year as well, its kind of getting to now or never for them this year with the impending Strasburg free agency and increased costs of young players, wont be able to keep the entire group together without breaking the bank in the coming years

     

    Skyalpha in honesty I think the best app is the MLB At Bat one for keeping up with scores etc

  6. My main play for today is 

    4 pts Minnesota Twins to beat Baltimore Orioles 2.10 William Hill

    If we trust that Ervin Santana has truly solved the HR issues he has suffered in the past and that last season is not a mirage, it is difficult to see this Baltimore lineup full of Power hitters who dont hit for average or walk and strike out too much scoring lots of runs. Chris Tillman has historically struggled early in the season, April has been his worst month performance wise for the last three seasons so I am willing to play the Twins in expectation of that trend continuing

  7. Ok, Superbowl 50 is upon us and in honour of our last game for the next 7 months I will put some selections up

     

    3 pts Carolina Panthers to beat Denver Broncos by 19-24 pts 11.00 Ladbrokes

    This game is going to go one of two ways, either the Panthers will blow the Broncos away or the Broncos defense will turn up and keep it close and they will cover the handicap, maybe even win the game. Based on the price differential and the fact that the two defenses that the Panthers destroyed in the first half of their playoff games to get here (Seattle and Arizona) are good defenses, I am willing to take a chance that the Panthers get up big and I dont think Peyton manning has the arm to mount a Seahawks style comeback and this could end up in similar fashion to the Cardinals in the NFC Championship for Carolina. It feels a lot like the Denver and Seattle blowout of a couple seasons ago

    20 pts Owen Daniels (Denver TE) Under 2.5 receptions 2.10 William Hill

    This is my headline selection, simply put, Owen Daniels has exceeded this number twice in 7 games,, he is up against a Carolina defense that is the best in the league defending the Tight End position and the ball has only actually been thrown in Daniels direction on three occasions in each of the Broncos playoff games. Suffice to say he is not a central part of the offense and if this one loses i likely have a bad day

    2 pts Ted Ginn to be MVP of Superbowl 50 51.00 Paddy Power

    4 pts Ted Ginn to have most receiving yards in Superbowl 50 13.00 William Hill

    Ted Ginn is where I see the value away from the Quarterbacks in the MVP market. Lets make no mistake the QBs usually win this award and Cam Newton is the likeliest winner should the Panthers triumph, however Ginn returns kicks for the Panthers and is very much a deep threat receiver and has 4 games with multiple touchdowns this year and at least 80 receiving yards on 3 of those occasions. A line of 130 receiving yards and 2 TDS or a long kick return TD with 100yds receiving and a TD could make this value. When QBs dont win it is usually a wide receiver. 8 QBS 3 WRs and 1 LB in the past 12 years have won the award. 

    1 pts Kawann Short to be MVP of Superbowl 50 201.00 Paddy Power

    If it is a low scoring game and the defense dominates, Kawann Short will be rushing the passer for Carolina and the Denver offensive ine is a weakness, if it is low scoring enough for offense to be doubtful for MVP then a 3 or 4 sack game could put SHort in the conversation at a massive price and in honest is far from out of the question that he could hit that kind of sack number

    4 pts 1st penalty of the game to be Offensive Holding 5.00 Betvictor

    As with the above, both these teams rush the passer well which could cause the lineman on each team to take a flag. If we get through the opening kickoff without a penalty then I feel this one has every chance. False start is the favourite but with no discernible home field advantage in the Superbowl this should be less likely to happen than a normal game

     

    best of luck anyone playing today and enjoy the game

  8. I m going to respectfully disagree with clubgowi with regards to the Pats game.

     

    the Divisional round of the NFL playoffs is littered with blowout wins by the home teams down the years and I suspect, on Saturday anyway that we could see some of the same

     

    6 pts New England -4.5 to beat Kansas City 1.91 Coral

    5 pts Under 44 total points

    3 pts Kansas City Under 19.5 total points 2.00 Paddy Power

    This game has all the looks of a defensive matchup, The Pats are fully healthy and ready to go on that side of the ball and arguably are the most underrated defense left in the playoffs, masterminded by Bill Bellichick. In the era of Bellichick the Patriots have specialised in removing what the other offense is good at. It cannot be emphasised how important Jeremy Maclin and the deep route is for the Chiefs to create space underneath, he is extremely doubtful to feature in this game and will certainly not be at his full capabilities if he does suit up. That really leaves the Tight End Travis Kelce for the Chiefs as the main threat and the Pats linebackers are amongst the best in the NFL at covering this position and I am convinced they will take Kelce out of the game and force the Chiefs to win some other way, now that could be with the running backs Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.

    The Chiefs have won 11 straight games after beginning the year 1-5. The improvement in their performance came with their defense, specifically the pass rush improving and in increase in the yards per passing attempt of Alex Smith the Chiefs QB at the mid point of the year, his average was up by almost a yard per pass the second half of the season, when they were losing at the early point of the season all the passes were underneath the defense and there was nothing to keep them honest with a deep threat. I cannot see how the Chiefs move the ball with a hampered or absent Maclin.

    The Pats offense is returning to some kind of health, the offensive line is a work in progress still, but the top 3 receiving options in Gronkowski, Edelman and Amendola are all available tonight and Steven Jackson will likely carry the load at running back. Whatever they get from Jackson will be a bonus as injuries and decline have hit the Pats this year, they certainly miss Dion Lewis and the receiving threat out the backfield but Jackson, experienced and signed prior to week 17 cannot be any worse than Legarrette Blount has been this season and arguably comes in fresh without a seasons beating on his body.

    Despite the injuries, the Patriots have been held under 27 points just 4 times all season. They know how to put points on the scoreboard and I really do struggle to see them losing at home to a Chiefs team that destroyed the Texans last week. A Texans team who were only in the playoffs by virtue of playing in the weakest division in the NFL. The champions at Foxborough in inclement weather in January will be a whole different proposition for these Chiefs, and for me the Pats have the edge in every phase of the game and on the sideline. Do you want to take Andy Reid over Bill Bellichick in the playoffs?

     

    8 pts Arizona Cardinals -7 to beat Green Bay Packers 1.91 Skybet

    Continuing with the theme of a blowout. The Cardinals are arguably the best team in the NFC discounting the performance that wasnt in a largely irrelevant home finale with the Seahawks. Green Bay come in fresh off a victory in Washington last week where they looked like they had finally found the groove again on offense.

    This for me again is a whole different ballgame, the Cardinals defense is a vastly superior unit to the Redskins and the Cardinals gave Rodgers fits when they whipped the Packers like a mule 38-8 just 3 weeks ago. There was a lot on the line for both teams that day and more so tonight. The Cardinals would appear to have the edge at running back as David Johnson, the rookie has been dynamic since coming in for the injured Chris Johnson, Eddie Lacy and James Starks have both had ample opportunities to grab the job for the Packers and Lacy cant seem to run through a hole, Starks on the other hand can get through the hole, he just forgets to take the ball with him too often. The Cardinals allowed just 3.9 yards per carry rushing this season and I cant see this as viable for Green Bay.

    As for the receivers, wow do the Packers miss Jordy Nelson, the rest of this group led by Randall Cobb and Davante Adams (cant catch) have consistently failed to get open all year long and while the Cardinals are down Tyrann Matthieu in the secondary, plenty worse defensive units (Arizona ranked 6th in the NFL against the pass) have held the Packers receivers in check. 

    Carson Palmer has options with Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown that have all performed well this year, Brown and Fitzgerald both eclipsing the 1000 yard mark. I am struggling to see past a repeat of the matchup 3 weeks ago where the Cardinals looked like they could beat the Pack by as little or as many as they wanted.

     

    Tomorrow is a little more difficult that today but these plays look quite clear to me

     

    Good luck if you are playing today

  9. Last Odds Change Key

     
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    v6173.gif
    chart_off.gif Chicago Cubs 9.5 9 9 10 9 11 11 11 10 8.5 9 9 10
    chart_off.gif Kansas City Royals 11 12 13 11 10 10 13 12 13 13 11 12 9
    chart_off.gif Houston Astros 15 14 13 15 13 15 16 15 17 15 15 15 15
    chart_off.gif Los Angeles Dodgers 12 13 15 11 13 10 13 13 17 13 11 13 10
    chart_off.gif New York Mets 11 11 13 13 11 12 17 15 11 13 13 17 13
    chart_off.gif St. Louis Cardinals 11 12 11 13 12 14 11 11 17 13 12 17 11
    chart_off.gif Toronto Blue Jays 9 9 13 13 13 12 14 13 17 10 9 13 9
    chart_off.gif Washington Nationals 12 12 15 13 13 13 11 12 17 15 12 13 10
    chart_off.gif Boston Red Sox 19 11 11 13 11 11 13 17 10 15 13 13 15
    chart_off.gif Pittsburgh Pirates 13 15 17 17 15 17 16 15 17 17 15 19 13
    chart_off.gif Texas Rangers 13 15 17 17 17 17 17 15 21 21 15 17 15
    chart_off.gif Los Angeles Angels 21 21 21 21 21 26 21 21 26 21 21 26 21
    chart_off.gif New York Yankees 17 21 21 21 21 21 17 19 26 21 19 21 15
    chart_off.gif San Francisco Giants 19 19 15 26 19 26 15 21 9 21 21 17 21
    chart_off.gif Cleveland Indians 19 26 26 26 26 26 21 26 23 29 26 29 26
    chart_off.gif Detroit Tigers 21 21 34 26 29 31 26 29 26 29 26 34 26
    chart_off.gif Seattle Mariners 26 26 29 29 34 26 26 26 26 29 23 21 23
    chart_off.gif Baltimore Orioles 41 46 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 51 41 41 41
    chart_off.gif Chicago White Sox 51 51 51 51 41 51 34 51 41 51 41 34 41
    chart_off.gif Tampa Bay Rays 31 46 51 51 41 41 34 41 51 51 41 34 41
    chart_off.gif Arizona Diamondbacks 41 17 19 21 21 21 19 17 26 17 19 34 67
    chart_off.gif Miami Marlins 29 31 41 29 26 26 21 29 67 34 29 67 51
    chart_off.gif Minnesota Twins 34 34 51 51 51 51 41 41 41 67 41 51 41
    chart_off.gif San Diego Padres 34 76 51 51 67 61 51 51 67 51 67 51 51
    chart_off.gif Milwaukee Brewers 51 67 81 101 67 81 51 81 67 81 67 101 81
    chart_off.gif Oakland Athletics 46 67 81 81 67 71 51 51 67 101 51 51 51
    chart_off.gif Cincinnati Reds 46 91 81 101 101 91 67 67 67 126 67 101 67
    chart_off.gif Atlanta Braves 71 176 126 126 126 151 101 101 101 151 126 101 126
    chart_off.gif Colorado Rockies 101 201 151 151 126 251 101 126 101 151 126 201 151
    chart_off.gif Philadelphia Phillies 201 351 251 201 151 351 201 251 101 351 251 201 251
    Place terms   ( Highlight E/W )                       2
    1/2
     
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  10. I have a few picks today, finally getting some time to post some selections again, as its late its without reasoning this week but will post proper selections in the coming weeks

     

    Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers

    4 pts TY Hilton over 80.5 receiving yards 1.91 Stan James

    New York Jets "@" New York Giants

    3 pts Over 46.5 points 1.91 Skybet

    Houston Texans @ Buffalo Bills

    3 pts Houston texans (+3) to beat Buffalo 1.95 Betfred - missed the 3.5 that was generally out there earlier this week

    would have posted KC -2.5 but that line has gone and I dont want it at 3

     

    Good luck this week everyone!!! :ok

  11. Well, i should wrap thus up for the season.

     

    Nil return on the antepost book

    Bryce Harper gave us a run in home runs ultimately falling 5 short

    Scherzer finished 2nd in strikeouts behind clay kershaw

    The mets swept the cubbies in the NLCS denying a return there

    And chris sale fell apart down the stretch in late august and september when he was a legit cy young contender

     

    Close but no cigar, i really hope to have more time to post next year as my personal circumstances change

  12. I have had quite a lot on so havent punted that much seriously and havent posted as if i havent dedicated time dont want to put half assed selections up. I hope to get everything smoothed out and sorted and posting again soon. The game is beatable but it takes time and most importantly for me actuall watching games, far more valuable than just reading the box score. Best of luck man

  13. 5pts Toronto Bluejays to beat Chicago White Sox 2.15 Ladbrokes A bit of an emotional one today for the White Sox, Mark Buehrle of the 2005 World Series championship team will oppose todays staff ace Chris Sale as Sale bids to make history and amass the longest streak of consecutive 10+ strikeout performances. He couldnt really be facing a worse opponent,while the Jays come scuffling into this matchup on a recent run of poor form, they also have the best batting average against left handed pitching in MLB, and as I have previously documented, the Sox are terrible against left handed pitching. This lefty matchup on that basis would appear to me to favour the Bluejays regardless of the ridiculous numbers Sale has put up, odds against is value in my opinion. While I would usually play the run line as well, Sale has been good enough that I am not too comfortable with that play

  14. This is the wrong thread but I have just placed a bet and havent set up the season specials thread at all so wanted to register it 0.5 pts e/w Demarco Murray Most Regular Season Rushing Yards 67.00 1/4 1-4 Stan James The resoning behind the bet is he won it last year and will be running behind the offensive line unit that allowed the most rushing yards before contavct last year in Philadelphia. I am aware Adrian Peterson was gone last year and he returns as favourite and I am also aware that Murray took an awful lot of work last year, but this is a crazy price if he stays healty *****I will say I am a little worried that they may palp this - bet365 and betvictor were both showing Demarco at 50/1 yesterday and are now both showing around 6/1 with Latavius Murray at 50/1 - Stan James have both listed at 66/1. I am hoping they let it stand as they refused a large amount of the stake I tried to get on (I had been waiting for someone to bet this each way) If they palp it I will be back to advise of that*************

  15. I will offer my apologies to anybody that was hoping I would post more regularly this year, I have quite a bit going on at the minute and would rather post selections that are well thought out than to do a half assed job (though recent results would have you believing otherwise) I hope that stuff will get sorted in the near future and I may be able to regularly contribute again like last season 8 pts Detroit Tigers (-1.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 2.40 William Hill 3 pts Detroit Tigers (-3.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 4.75 Bet365 1 pts Detroit Tigers (-5.5) to beat Chicago White Sox 11.00 Bet365 Well, by now you lknow I oppose my White Sox against a lefty and Price is amongst the best left handed pitchers in the game. Jeff Samardzija will take the hill for the Sox and has been nothing short of a huge disappointment after his acquisition in the off season, he is auditioning for teams now as he is a certainty to be traded by the deadline and the Sox will be hoping he does a good job, however while his 3.63 ERA in 3 starts against Detroit this year betters his mark of 4.53 overall, Price opposes with a 1.06 ERA in matchups with the White Sox this year and the Detroit hitters are starting to hit after a slow month of May and poor start to June. It will be a huge outlier on all Price v White Sox matchups this season if the Sox score many at all - they have scored a single run both times they bumped into Price. Earlier this month Price was the winning pitcher as Detroit won 7-1 in Chicago. Lets see shall we Good luck if you play

  16. well I guess its best to be way off lol for whatever reason bet 3 didnt go on so will call it an extrat £2.50 on start bank and count the bet as a loser anyway bet 4

    • Doubles (£7.00 x 1) Bet Ref: O/0191297/0001140

      £20.51

      • CWS @ MIN
        • Under Chicago White Sox Runs U/O 3.5 23/20

        [*] PHI @ NYY

        • NY Yankees (M Pineda) Moneyline (Listed) 4/11

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