Bachelors Hall

Thank you Trotter

Unless you're thinking of the good staying chaser from 1977/78, the more modest two mile chaser of the late 1930s/early 1940s, or the classy French steeplechaser of the early 2000s, I can only imagine your having seen my posts elsewhere

Anyways, time for the first preview of the season. Again, I am not a tipster and everything here is for information purposes only!
Personally, I think shouting the word "hype" over and over again in front of strobe lights to the sounds hardstyle techno and obnoxious siren effects would be an apt means of expressing the amount of excitement one ought to have for Saturday's three fifteen at Hexham. Nevertheless, some people prefer words so here are are some words. Two thousand, two hundred and seventy three of them in fact. Enjoy!
At the beginning of this century, the season's opening juvenile hurdle took place at Market Rasen during mid-late July. In 2004, Stratford supplanted Market Rasen by a week before the latter reclaimed its position in 2006 by hosting the first juvenile hurdle to be held in June since summer jumping became a whole thing. Not to be outdone, Stratford raised the curtain on the Tenth of June in 2007 before Hexham stepped in to give those competing in the 2008 Epsom Derby an insight into what awaited them if they did not fancy retiring to the breeding sheds.  The following year, Stratford hosted the first three-year-old hurdle to be held in May. Everybody agreed that this was silly and apart from Ffos Las going four days ahead of Hexham in 2012, and Newton Abbot getting things underway during "the uncertain times", British juvenile hurdlers have been making their first forays at the country's most beautiful racecourse. 
With an average winning DI of 0.99, 0.51 points below that of the average runner, Hexham is the most demanding racecourse of any British or Irish track with ten or more participants since 2004/05. The completion rate of 77.44% attests to this notion, although it is not so demanding insofar as jumping is concerned as its clear round rate of 97.64% is well above average. The going is currently good, good-to-soft in places, and will be watered to maintained as no significant rain is forecast in the interim. From a punting perspective, Hexham does get more than its fair share of beaten odds-on favourites (six from ten since 2004/05), although its winners' mean SP of 5.08, median 3.25, is much kinder by comparison. It will come as a surprise to nobody that the average winner of this contest has a very low seasonal best RPR with the mark of 108.47 bettered by all courses apart from Cartmel and Fakenham. This particular contest is no exception with its winners posting average seasonal bests of 103.59, although it is not without its occasional useful participants. City Dreamer, Come On Sunshine and Maria Magdalena went on to reach the frame in the Wensleydale Hurdle while 2008 winner Simarian won and placed in graded company at Cheltenham prior to finishing seventh in that season's Triumph. Saturday's edition looks an above average renewal with several respectable trainers and sires represented, three runners whose flat form exceeds the standard sufficient to win this race along with a Saint des Saints nephew of Sprinter Sacre. While somewhat trappy and not likely to provide any superstars, it would not be unreasonable to imagine it producing future winners during the early season. 
Family Time bg Alex Hales f1-0-0 (-) 0
Excelebration (Azamour){7}(2.00) 3/1 Architrave 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2010
Alex Hales has a fairly ordinary record with juvenile hurdlers, although he enjoyed fruitful spells in the division during the past two summers courtesy of Hiconic and Maria Magdalena. His first representative this term is set to be Family Time who was tailed off on his sole start in a Newbury novice stakes last October. Family Time can be forgiven that outing as he did not emerge from the stalls until the rest of the field had completed a furlong. However, he was still an unfancied 200/1 chance that day and his subsequent absence will be a concern. Furthermore, while his granddam is a half-sister to 2010s prolific early season juvenile Architrave, the rest of the pedigree does not bode well as Excelebration has just one winner from sixteen in the division, damsire Azamour has just one from twelve, and though Windshear (2/1) was a good stayer on the flat, he failed to win from seven starts over hurdles. 
Inferno Sacree bg Nigel Hawke Unraced
Saint des Saints (Daramsar){u}(0.67) 2/1 Sprinter Sacre 1st Champion Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2013
Few early season juveniles will have as compelling a pedigree as the unraced Inferno Sacree. Costing €37,000 at Arqana as a yearling, Inferno Sacree is a son of Saint des Saints, an outsdtanding source of juveniles both domestically (Whetstone, Buddy Banks, Goliath du Berlais) and as exports (Monmiral, Fusil Raffles, Sametegal) with laudable figures across the board. The damline is also compelling as it includes half-brother Emir Sacree, useful sorts Flinteur Sacre (2/1), Gazump (3/1), Tiot Cas (3/2), Echo Sacre (3/2) and most notably, the outstanding champion Sprinter Sacre. Sending Inferno Sacree to an unusual location for his debut is Nigel Hawke who maintained his solid record in the division last season with three winners including Historic Heart. However, while three of his fourteen runners at Hexham have been winners, he is not generally given to sending juveniles to the venue and the eyecatching booking of Brian Hughes is not compelling from a statistical perspective as the pair have yet to have a winner from three. Furthermore, Hawke's first time out record in the sphere of two wins from fifty-four is a poor one which does not bode well considering that the overall strike rate for unraced newcomers is a miserly 2.04%. Notwithstanding, the trainer did infamously saddle the unraced Tiger Roll ahead of his racecourse debut at Market Rasen in 2013.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
Since 2004/05, fifty horses have been claimed out of flat races on the continent prior to juvenile hurdling campaigns in Britain and Ireland. With eleven winners sharing nineteen successes, their record is a respectable one. David Pipe accounted for nine of these animals amongst whom four were winners - most notably Adagio who won three last term, including the Grade One at Chepstow, prior to twice placing at the festivals. However, Adagio was very much the exception in this regard as only he and Bocamix (123) achieved RPRs exceeding 120.despite sixteen such horses being rated 80 and above on the flat. The latest import is Koi Dodville who was claimed by David Pipe for €14,506 after finishing second in a good ground ten furlong contest at Saint Cloud last month. The third and fourth each finished runner-up next time, and Koi Dodville had been running respectably since his return in March, placing twice in handicap company at Pornichet before getting off the mark at Nancy over 1950 meters on his penultimate outing. Tracking the clear leader for much of the race, he went into the lead a with a furlong and a half left to run before holding on to an ever decreasing lead at the line. Last time at Saint-Cloud, Koi Dodville again went clear at the distance, but did not look entirely resolute in his failed attempt to fend off his challenger. The headgear worn in France has been left off for his hurdling debut. Insofar as his pedigree is concerned French Fifteen has made an encouraging start from limited opportunities with three winners from ten in France, and the promising French Aseel being one of the two to have raced in Britain or Ireland. However, the same can not yet be said for Aussie Rules as a damsire and the are few jumpers on the damline prior to Uriah Heep (3/2) and City Hall (5/2). David Pipe has saddled one winner from three in this contest, and his first time strike rate of 18.18% is very respectable. However, of the yard's claimer sourced flat imports, only Adagio won first time, while Nike Walker, Closer To Home and Paricolor (also bought out of the Ludovic Gadbin yard) would not score until entering handicap company. 
McGregors Charge bg Nigel Hawke Unraced
Recharge (Le Triton){36}(1.13) 2/2 Pafadas 1st Prix de Chambly (L,3yoH), Auteuil 2013
Nigel Hawke's second runner, and presumably his second string, is another unraced newcomer in McGregors Charge. Though not as immediately prestigious as his stablemate's, the homebred McGregors Charge's damline is not without its merits. The dam is a winning two mile chaser while the granddam presides over a family containing several useful French youngsters including listed placed Dans l'Espas (2/2) and listed winner Pafadas (2/2), herself a dam of black type earners Mauricius and Altus. Recharge is without any juveniles in France, Britain or Ireland, although three of his seven hurdlers have been winners and Cape Cross has produced a couple of winning sires in the sphere in Golden Horn and Sea The Stars. Le Triton has not been tested as a damire of juveniles on these shores, but he was responsible for the talented Grand Charly as a sire. McGregors Charge is entitled to respect on his pedigree, although his limitations being a debutant are addressed in Inferno Sacree's piece.
Percy Willis bg Jedd O'Keeffe f6-0-2 (71) 72 
Sir Percy (Dansili){16-a}(0.33) 3/1 Fire Top 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Kempton 1989
Sir Percy is one of several sires in this contest with above average credentials, and though he rather lacks in terms of star quality, his strike rate between the months of June and October stands at 40.63%. His first declared representative of the new season, Percy Willis. just about sets the standard on flat form according to Timeform. Though winless in four starts for Eve Johnson Houghton (whose graduates have a three wins from nineteen runners in juvenile hurdles), he managed to place twice at Lingfield prior to joining Jedd O'Keeffe for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls March sale. The Middleham trainer has been having something of a lean spell, although he did hit the crossbar at Ayr this afternoon, signalling a potential return to form. His overall record in the sphere is a respectable one with a 27.27% winner to runner rate, a 47.37% improvement rate, and a first time out record of 14.29% which increases to 28.57% with flat runners rated 62 and above. Percy Willis did not impress on his stable debut at Beverley, but he was better last time at Redcar where while he pulled in the early stages, was able to settle better ahead of getting outpaced to finish a three and a half length fourth. That these performances came on good to firm suggests he can improve with a bit more give in the ground. The damline is not massively encouraging as the first winner along the line, Reg Akehurst's Fire Top, comes at the third dam and Dansili has just five winners from thirty-nine as a damsire. Nevertheless, with stamina essentially assured, demonstrable flat form, and a trainer with solid credentials for this contest, the credentials of Percy Willis are worthy of respect.
Smart Boyo bg Philip Kirby f3-0-0 (54) 45
War Command (Kheleyf){13-a}(2.11) 3/1 Minnesota 1st 2m Novices' Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2000
Trainer Philip Kirby's improvement rate of 65% is the strongest in this field and War Command was able to get off the mark in the sphere last season with Crassus and Battle of Benburb scoring in Ireland. However, Smart Boyo's switch to hurdles will need to bring about a significant amount of improvement as his three flat runs this spring, beaten almost eighty lengths combined, have offered very little promise. There is little encouragement to be drawn from the damline either as the nearest winning jumps relative was a modest one, and War Command's two winners each had lower dosage indexes.
Space Kid chg Adrian Paul Keatley f12-1-6 (64) 70
Tamayuz (Danehill Dancer){13-c}(2.11) 3/1 Cape Express 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Though better known for his sprinters and milers, Tamayuz is not above producing stayers like Desert Skyline. Furthermore, his daughter, Skylark Lady, won this race in 2016 and with four winning juveniles from thirteen, his overall record in the sphere is a solid one. Space Kid's damline is also respectable as Danehill Dancer's record is the best of a modest set represented in this field, and winning hurdlers Leo McGarry and Cape Express each appear at 3/1. A winner of a Wolverhampton nursery last November, Space Kid performed consistently on the all-weather during the winter before maintaining his form on the turf on his latest outings at Thirsk and Beverley. Like many tough, game, consistent and versatile sorts of his ilk, Space Kid appears to be a victim of his own success as his flat rating, which leaves him a good half stone off the top two here, is not relenting. Furthermore, his yard, which has had one winning juvenile from eight, has recently had few horses run to form. 
Saramenha chf Jamie Snowden f3-0-1 (59) 59
Mastercraftsman (Zamindar){1-e}(2.43) 3/3 Voix du Soir 1st 3800m Handicap Hurdle (58.0), Dieppe 2020
The prolific Mastercraftsman has twenty-three individual winning juvenile hurdlers to his name including several useful sorts such as Master Blueyes, Wolf Of Windlesham and Intense Tango. Though the damline is quiet on the first few rungs, Voix du Nord, a talented sire of juveniles, appears at 3/2 while Detroit City, Royal Shakespeare and Tower Bridge can all be found in the distance at 5/3. However, these factors will need to have a significant impact on the credentials of Saramenha. Her two runs last term for Ralph Beckett, whose graduates have a good winner to runner rate, but poor improvement rate, were fair at best and following a 15,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls last Autumn, she failed to show in a Nottingham maiden over an extended mile four weeks ago. Jamie Snowden has been among the winners recently, and he has saddled three to score in juvenile hurdles from eighteen, although his improvement rate of just 10% between codes is well below par. 
Strong prospects
1. Percy Willis
Reasonable prospects
2. Inferno Sacree
3. Koi Dodville
4. Space Kid
Feasible prospects
5. McGregors Charge
Moderate prospects
6. Saramenha
Negligible prospects
7. Smart Boyo
8. Family Time

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.

Hello all. Some of you may be familiar with my work as it was posted in various locations last season. Nevertheless, operating on the rightful premise that I am a complete stranger here, I am Bachelors Hall/Kotkijet and I write extensively on the matter of juvenile hurdlers. So much so that I have little time remaining to become confident and conversant in other aspects of the sport. I aim to write and present information with clarity, but if anything requires further explanation then please do not hesitate to request elucidation.

Juvenile hurdlers, and myself, are set to return to Hexham in ten days time. If the young horses are a fraction as excited as I am then we should be in for a treat. Though ten days before the first race of the season makes the posting of this thread somewhat early, there have already been enough noteworthy ex-French imports, plus the time affords others the opportunity for suggestions before the previews begin. Last season's thread rather evolved in tandem with the available data and resources along with the input of interested readers and I imagine the same will happen with this one. There have not been any sweeping changes since the last preview with the only discernible differences being that I have been closer following the French action, and extending my records to the 2004/05 season. I could have gone back to the start of the millennium but that would have taken several further months so rather than lamenting the inability to create time, we can fittingly call this period the 'Fred Winter Era'. I will attempt to work on a method of quantifying improvements between races by individual horses for individual trainers and so forth by RPR rather than just strike rate, although quite whether I have the time and capacity to pull this off remains to seen so no promises. Finally, it bears emphatically stating that I am not a tipster and nothing I write in this thread is a tip. If others do wish to help others make money then their tips and thoughts are more than welcome. Nevertheless, my own intention is to inform and entertain, and my motivation is a self-rewarding labour of love (which could possibly lead to a labour of employment in some convoluted fashion or another - ideal career would be 'kept man/househusband' but will also consider the fields of breeding, training, sales or research/writing). 
I look forward to this season's juvenile hurdlers and the thread that it will inspire. I hope that it is a worthy read and heartily encourage others to contribute by any means, particularly with suggestions and criticisms as they will undoubtedly enhance the quality of this project and my own contributions. 
To begin with, I will post a series of tables full of statistics of varying relevance and interest. For the sake of space and patience, these will be restricted to the top and bottom ten of each category, although if there are any bespoke requests then I will happily endeavour to fulfil same. Several of these tables will feature "improvement rates". This is calculated by taking the seasonal best RPRs of all juvenile hurdlers with two or more runs, and comparing them to their official ratings from the flat in order to ascertain whether or not they have improved for the switch to hurdles. The comparative benchmark figure is thirty-five pounds and while the majority in these tables will fall short, due to those with just two runs skewing the figures, thirty-five pounds is a broadly reliable measure once a juvenile has had the same amount of runs sufficient to earn a mark comparable to its flat rating. Where the results show a clean sweep of "0.00" or "100", the subjects are ranked by order of the amount of relevant opportunities. i.e;- where two sires are on "100" the sire with more runners is placed higher - conversely, where two are on "0.00", the one with more runners is placed lower. One might notice some charts including a "completion rate" and a "clear round rate". These are not one and the same. The former looks at how many horses complete a race from start to finish while the latter looks at those who fail to complete due to a jumping error (refusing, falling or unseating).
Many of the tables will likely be unreadable as they appear on this post. Nevertheless, when opened in a new tab, they can be magnified on their hosting site. 
Sires - For comparison, there are two charts with one taking in the past three seasons, and the other (containing many inactive sires) encompassing the entire period since 2004/05. The figures in the yellow boxes denote the mean averages of the pertinent category. 




Trainers




Jockeys



Sources - These are the trainers under whom a juvenile hurdler was kept prior to making the switch to hurdles. Not included are those who kept the same trainer from the flat to their hurdling careers. As such, a horse who was trained under both codes by Brian Ellison, for example, will not be included. However, a horse initially trained by Brian Ellison prior to racing over hurdles for a new trainer will be counted.



Grandsires - This looks at the sires of sires of juvenile hurdlers. While established sires can have their merits assessed on their own accords, the information for those having their first crop is less tangible. Nevertheless, according to statistics, some sires are more capable of producing winner producers than others. Looking at this season's crop, Galileo - for whom seventeen of his twenty-one sons to have tried have succeeded in getting winners - could be represented by The Gurkha who has already had scorers over ten furlongs and beyond. On the other hand, Exceed And Excel is not so prolific a grandsire and although Buratino's being a 3/1 to Danehill Dancer (Jeremy, Mastercraftsman, Choisir) might help his credentials, his offspring have been decidedly pacey.



Thoroughbred families - For the uninitiated, thoroughbred families essentially denote a common maternal ancestor. A comprehensive summary can be found here on tbheritage.com. Given how these families were allocated at the turn of the twentieth century, they have largely become so diluted that the information is mostly white noise although I imagine that its architect Bruce Lowe will be pleased that variants of family 1 are still performing admirably. Of the families with more than hundred juveniles since 2004/05, 1-n, represented last season by six winners including Zoffanien and Hiconic, has a winner to runner rate of 23.30% whereas 14-f, without a winner since 2017, has one of just 8.82%. While the usefulness of this attribute is dubious, they are still a source of trivial amusement if nothing else. 



Crosses - Continuing the theme of questionable usefulness, I have also had a look at sire/damsire crosses along with sire/family crosses. While these factors have more potential to carry weight, the lack of quantity largely restricts the usefulness of these findings as only four sire/damsire crosses appear more than ten times since 2004/05 with the highest number of sire/family crosses being eight. 



Dosage Index - A less heralded breeding factor, but one with discernible statistical trends, is the dosage index. Though often limited and far from devoid of imperfections, these charts show a definite correlation between the dosage index, RPRs and strike rates. The short of it is low = better as it is designed to indicate a young horse's proclivity towards stamina.  Though this might become less critical as a horse is developed since stamina can be trained, it is crucial to the success of a young hurdler. I have also made my first attempts at a chart so apologies for any concerned with graphic design for my affront to same.
Dosages when grouped by DI





Dosages when grouped by RPR
Racecourses



Translation of flat ability - There is a myth that pervades according to which flat form can be defenestrated when it comes to juvenile hurdling. However, this chart demonstrates in no uncertain terms that not only is there a strong relationship between flat ability and hurdling success, but also one between flat ability and the ability to jump safely. 



Source and experience - The combined figures of 1-61 and 62+ do not match the total flat as the numbers are official ratings.



Triumph Hurdle - Since many people will only watch one juvenile hurdle per season, here is a chart for the trends of such race including the date the participants made their British/Irish hurdling debut, their source (numbers denote a horse who ran in Britain or Ireland on the flat with those above "0" showing their official rating) and the trial races they contested during the campaign. 




Shifting attentions from the past and towards the future, here are six horses registered as exported on the France-Galop site who are likely to jump hurdles in Britain and Ireland this season. The ratings are ones which I have created for myself. As I have never previously done them for French hurdlers, they should be approached with caution. Similar to the ones I did for British and Irish races, I almost never amended them for collateral form and treated the performances "as is" on the day. As such, while subsequent collateral form would most likely place Matterhorn ahead of Porticello, regardless of theoretical potential for same, the former has not yet physically proven that his improvement followed that of Paradiso. Furthermore, the top four have had just the one race each so nothing ought to be taken as gospel.

The heading figures read as follows;-
Name, colour, sex, trainer, runs-wins-places on either code, official ratings and RPRs where applicable, my rating underlined, previous trainer, cost if known/sold in training.
Sire, (Damsire), {family number}, (Dosage Index), degree of relation (2/1 = second dam is first dam of = Matterhorn is Turgot's nephew), notable jumps relation, most notable performance.
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3
By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso posted the strongest performance of the season to date when running out a most decisive winner in Sunday's Prix Stanley. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third next time at the venue while eigth placed Issam subsequently won a Lyon contest by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a stong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.
Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello
Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Storm Of Saintly, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands. 
Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato
Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteul was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground. 
Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 121 (Bertrand Lefevre) €70,000
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont
It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiègne which is a reaonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.
Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech? j3-1-1 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin) €16,777
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2
Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiègne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74 (Ludovic Gadbin) €14,506
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 1st 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
David Pipe did something quite remarkable last term by sourcing a leading juvenile from a flat claimer. Such types win a credible amount of races in the sphere, although rarely are they any better than average so Adagio is very much an exception in this regard. French Fifteen has produced three winning juveniles in France and was also responsible for the promising French Aseel. Furthermore, all three juveniles to have made the switch from Gadbin to Pipe (Night Edition, Paricolor, To Fly Free) have been winners. While it would be asking a lot of Koi Dodville to come close to matching Adagio's achievements (the latter being €10,000 more expensive and almost a stone superior), he would still be of interest in ordinary contests.