Bachelors Hall

It may be 35 & I've put 45, now I'm not sure , I just go on ex jump jockeys comments .
I'd be wondering why Henderson's charge has all the aids to help .
Cross Fred Bear off your may win list , no horses carrying 7Lb penalty have even won this race & only 1 filly carrying 10-5 , so that's lines through 3 of the 12 .

Hi CD, thanks for your comments

Haven't looked at the prices yet but would be surprised if the Moore horses are long odds given what you have mentioned. 

If Impulsive One wasn't taking on two previous winners with good attitudes, I would have been tempted to give him "outstanding prospects" rather than simply "strong" ones. Can't see anything touching the top three but there is always potential for such things in the division. 

May I ask how you reached your 45 pound addition? I generally go off 35 myself and find that a lot of juveniles end up being badly handicapped. 

Plumpton host a juvenile hurdle race on Sunday at 3.40 .
TARA ITI who ended flat season with a rating of 65 ( add 45 to rating for hurdle race ) finished 4th over CD 14 days ago , is hooded for the 1st time today & is 1 of 2 in the race for Team Moore ( AGGAGIO the other ) who have an excellent record here & at Fontwell , trained the winner of this race in 2013 & 16 though S.West who saddles previous race winner Fred Bear & who carries 7Lb penalty won this in 2011, 18 & 19 .
The Yellow Mini a previous distance winner on debut & N.Henderson's Impulsive One both stand out .
Dark Motive also ran well for a long period 18 days ago but would probably prefer 2f less than the 18f today .
I'll have a small each way on both the Moore horses IF double figure prices .

Although French racing might get lost in the excitement as the British and Irish seasons begin to come out of hibernation, the Prix Finot is still a contest worth of attention. This newcomers’ race is one with a rich history of being a launchpad for some very talented individuals who have won many a decent prize in France, Britain and Ireland over the years both as juveniles and as established veterans.
Starting with the records of graduates in juvenile hurdles, here is a list of previous participants that went on to race in Britain and Ireland. The French trainers listed in purple will be represented in this year’s renewal.

The Prix Finot also has a respectable record of producing those who compete in the top French prizes for the age group.

Insofar as the long term is concerned, here are the ten graduates who would have the highest official ratings in France and within the Anglo-Irish classifications since 2008.


Here are some details on the declared runners for this year’s race. ‘fam’ denotes the family number and ‘DI’ the dosage index. The sire figures pertain to the records of all three-year-old progeny to have raced over obstacles in France since 2000. The trainer figures pertain to their record in the important three-year-old debutant contests since 2008 with their history in the Prix Finot attached at the end.

As is to be expected from a race of this nature, the pedigrees of the newcomers feature some very notable relatives. The format is similar to my other previews with the numbers after the dosage index denoting the proximity of the notable relative. 0.5 = half-sibling, 1/1 = full sibling, 1/0 = dam, 2/1 = second dam is the first dam of. As this is not a conventional preview, some additional relatives are added as a bonus.
Spirit Of The Moon chg Robert Collet f10-0-1 (32/70.4) (F Vermeulen)
Sea The Moon (Cape Blanco){20-c}(0.47) 3/1 Looking Great 2nd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Fontwell 2005
Spirit Of The Moon 5/3 Lasting Life 5/3 Stormez 5/4 Emotional Article 5/5 Min
Manzon chc Lucie Pontoir f6-0-0 (27/59.4)
Rio De La Plata (Pivotal){5-h}(2.60) 3/1 Trenchant 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2010
Manzon 3/1 Personal Column 4/2 Viotti 4/3 Cocody du Banco
Kamchatka bg Etienne d’Andigne Unraced
Masked Marvel (Nickname){12-b}(0.39) 2/1 Katkeau 1st 3m Handicap Chase (143), Uttoxeter 2016
Kamchatka 2/0 Levine 2/1 Kats Royale 3/1 Levanaie
Kamus blg Yannick Fouin Unraced
Masked Marvel (Sholokhov){5-h}(0.47) 2/1 Kruzhlinin 1st Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle (G3,136), Haydock 2016
Kamus 2/1 Kiss Me Lips 2/1 Irascible 2/1 Kalooki 4/3 Kadi 5/5 State Of Play
Solisud grg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
Lord du Sud (Loup Solitaire){4-r}(0.68) 0.5 Saint Poursain 1st Prix Marc Anthony (L4yH,63), Auteuil 2016
Solisid 1/0 Ta Solitaire 2/1 The Last Derby 2/1 Heros de Villeneuve
Aimant bg Jean Baudron Unraced
Exosphere (Dansili){16-a}(3.00) 2/1 Alileo 2nd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2014
Aimant 0.5 Aimora
Loquas grg Yannick Fouin Unraced
It’s Gino (Kaldou Star){1-u}(1.86) 2/1 Cadoudoff 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2013
Loquas 2/2 Walk In The Mill 3/2 Bonita du Berlais 3/2 Bonito du Berlais etc 3/2 Mr Mole 5/1 Chinco
Topcity bc Edouard Lyon f4-0-0 (26.0/57.2)
Elusive City (Al Namix){3-n}(1.40) 0.5 Top Boy 4th 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2017
Topcity 3/1 Tocrisk 3/1 Tocblue
Numerus Borget bg David Cottin Unraced
Nicaron (Sevres Rose){2-f}(1.00) 2/1 Le Grand Luce 2nd Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil (G1), Auteuil 2014
Numerus Borget 2/1 Ma Chere Amie 4/1 Danseur Royal 6/5 Terrefort
Royal Devil grg Mikael Mescam Unraced
American Devil (Turgeon){5-h}(1.67) 2/1 Gamin du Bronx 1st 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2007
Royal Devil 1/0 Tuseurat 0.5 Tulaura 2/0 Kelseurat du Casse 4/3 Soleil de Vati
Cavani Kaizen bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
It’s Gino (Lope de Vega){22-b}(1.80) 3/2 De Senectute 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (84), Cork 2010
Cavani Kaizen 4/4 Noland 4/4 King Of The Picts
Miralago bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
Doctor Dino (Montmartre){9}(0.33) 2/1 Street Name 1st Prix Leon Olry-Roederer (G2), Auteuil 2015
Miralago 1/0 Street Party 2/1 Konig Drive
Seigneur des As bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
It’s Gino (Kahyasi){8-c}(1.15) 1/0 Dallidas 2nd Prix Sagan (L,3yH), Auteuil 2011
Seigneur des As 0.5 Louanas 2/0 Dindouna 2/1 Dindounas 2/2 Sanouva 2/2 Hippomene 2/3 Haut en Couleur
No Going Back bg Arnaud Chaille-Chaille Unraced
Nathaniel (Invincible Spirit){8-a}(0.74) 0.5 Lever du Soleil 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2018
No Going Back 2/1 An Epic Song 3/1 Monsun 4/2 Modesto 5/5 Midnight Game
Illico des Bordes bg Dominique Bressou f1-0-0
Crillon (Bateau Rouge){4-n}(1.33) 0.5 Adagio des Bordes 4th Prix la Barka (G2), Auteuil 2019
Illico des Bordes 0.5 Venus des Bordes 2/0 Gamine Royale 2/1 Bossa Nova 2/2 Utopie des Bordes 2/2 Darling des Bordes etc
Conspiracy Theory chg Marcel Rolland f1-0-1
New Approach (Pivotal){14-c}(0.93) 3/2 Chadic 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2016
Conspiracy Theory 3/1 Fantastic Light 4/5 Roi d’Etoile

Posted this in the juvenile hurdler thread but since it has cross appeal, this may be useful to those who follow the French jumpers. No tips or anything and very much a watching brief, although it could be interesting that the beautifully bred Numerus Borget is the sole representative of David Cottin...

Although French racing might get lost in the excitement as the British and Irish seasons begin to come out of hibernation, the Prix Finot is still a contest worth of attention. This newcomers’ race is one with a rich history of being a launchpad for some very talented individuals who have won many a decent prize in France, Britain and Ireland over the years both as juveniles and as established veterans.
Starting with the records of graduates in juvenile hurdles, here is a list of previous participants that went on to race in Britain and Ireland. The French trainers listed in purple will be represented in this year’s renewal.

The Prix Finot also has a respectable record of producing those who compete in the top French prizes for the age group.

Insofar as the long term is concerned, here are the ten graduates who would have the highest official ratings in France and within the Anglo-Irish classifications since 2008.


Here are some details on the declared runners for this year’s race. ‘fam’ denotes the family number and ‘DI’ the dosage index. The sire figures pertain to the records of all three-year-old progeny to have raced over obstacles in France since 2000. The trainer figures pertain to their record in the important three-year-old debutant contests since 2008 with their history in the Prix Finot attached at the end.

As is to be expected from a race of this nature, the pedigrees of the newcomers feature some very notable relatives. The format is similar to my other previews with the numbers after the dosage index denoting the proximity of the notable relative. 0.5 = half-sibling, 1/1 = full sibling, 1/0 = dam, 2/1 = second dam is the first dam of. As this is not a conventional preview, some additional relatives are added as a bonus.
Spirit Of The Moon chg Robert Collet f10-0-1 (32/70.4) (F Vermeulen)
Sea The Moon (Cape Blanco){20-c}(0.47) 3/1 Looking Great 2nd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Fontwell 2005
Spirit Of The Moon 5/3 Lasting Life 5/3 Stormez 5/4 Emotional Article 5/5 Min
Manzon chc Lucie Pontoir f6-0-0 (27/59.4)
Rio De La Plata (Pivotal){5-h}(2.60) 3/1 Trenchant 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2010
Manzon 3/1 Personal Column 4/2 Viotti 4/3 Cocody du Banco
Kamchatka bg Etienne d’Andigne Unraced
Masked Marvel (Nickname){12-b}(0.39) 2/1 Katkeau 1st 3m Handicap Chase (143), Uttoxeter 2016
Kamchatka 2/0 Levine 2/1 Kats Royale 3/1 Levanaie
Kamus blg Yannick Fouin Unraced
Masked Marvel (Sholokhov){5-h}(0.47) 2/1 Kruzhlinin 1st Fixed Brush Handicap Hurdle (G3,136), Haydock 2016
Kamus 2/1 Kiss Me Lips 2/1 Irascible 2/1 Kalooki 4/3 Kadi 5/5 State Of Play
Solisud grg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
Lord du Sud (Loup Solitaire){4-r}(0.68) 0.5 Saint Poursain 1st Prix Marc Anthony (L4yH,63), Auteuil 2016
Solisid 1/0 Ta Solitaire 2/1 The Last Derby 2/1 Heros de Villeneuve
Aimant bg Jean Baudron Unraced
Exosphere (Dansili){16-a}(3.00) 2/1 Alileo 2nd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2014
Aimant 0.5 Aimora
Loquas grg Yannick Fouin Unraced
It’s Gino (Kaldou Star){1-u}(1.86) 2/1 Cadoudoff 2nd Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2013
Loquas 2/2 Walk In The Mill 3/2 Bonita du Berlais 3/2 Bonito du Berlais etc 3/2 Mr Mole 5/1 Chinco
Topcity bc Edouard Lyon f4-0-0 (26.0/57.2)
Elusive City (Al Namix){3-n}(1.40) 0.5 Top Boy 4th 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2017
Topcity 3/1 Tocrisk 3/1 Tocblue
Numerus Borget bg David Cottin Unraced
Nicaron (Sevres Rose){2-f}(1.00) 2/1 Le Grand Luce 2nd Grande Course de Haies d’Auteuil (G1), Auteuil 2014
Numerus Borget 2/1 Ma Chere Amie 4/1 Danseur Royal 6/5 Terrefort
Royal Devil grg Mikael Mescam Unraced
American Devil (Turgeon){5-h}(1.67) 2/1 Gamin du Bronx 1st 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Cagnes-sur-Mer 2007
Royal Devil 1/0 Tuseurat 0.5 Tulaura 2/0 Kelseurat du Casse 4/3 Soleil de Vati
Cavani Kaizen bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
It’s Gino (Lope de Vega){22-b}(1.80) 3/2 De Senectute 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (84), Cork 2010
Cavani Kaizen 4/4 Noland 4/4 King Of The Picts
Miralago bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
Doctor Dino (Montmartre){9}(0.33) 2/1 Street Name 1st Prix Leon Olry-Roederer (G2), Auteuil 2015
Miralago 1/0 Street Party 2/1 Konig Drive
Seigneur des As bg Daniela Mele f1-0-0
It’s Gino (Kahyasi){8-c}(1.15) 1/0 Dallidas 2nd Prix Sagan (L,3yH), Auteuil 2011
Seigneur des As 0.5 Louanas 2/0 Dindouna 2/1 Dindounas 2/2 Sanouva 2/2 Hippomene 2/3 Haut en Couleur
No Going Back bg Arnaud Chaille-Chaille Unraced
Nathaniel (Invincible Spirit){8-a}(0.74) 0.5 Lever du Soleil 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2018
No Going Back 2/1 An Epic Song 3/1 Monsun 4/2 Modesto 5/5 Midnight Game
Illico des Bordes bg Dominique Bressou f1-0-0
Crillon (Bateau Rouge){4-n}(1.33) 0.5 Adagio des Bordes 4th Prix la Barka (G2), Auteuil 2019
Illico des Bordes 0.5 Venus des Bordes 2/0 Gamine Royale 2/1 Bossa Nova 2/2 Utopie des Bordes 2/2 Darling des Bordes etc
Conspiracy Theory chg Marcel Rolland f1-0-1
New Approach (Pivotal){14-c}(0.93) 3/2 Chadic 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2016
Conspiracy Theory 3/1 Fantastic Light 4/5 Roi d’Etoile

Hello all.
I have updated the prospects list for the 2021/22 season. However, given its size, I would be unable to post it all in one go. That said, having such a wall of text would create havoc on this thread - aesthetically at least if not mechanically.
So I have posted it on twitter...
https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1437884531030347779
Likes and re-tweets would be most welcome. Suggestions, comments, questions, adoration, abuse etc can be left here or through twitter or wherever. 
If you are too cool for twitter, and I was myself until recently, then there is a direct link to the blog post here.
https://juvenilehurdlers.wordpress.com/2021/09/14/juvenile-hurdle-prospects-for-2021-22-2/
Lots of love and all that

Preview review
No preview was written on this race and no previews will be written on races held under the jurisdiction of HRI for the foreseeable future. I had half the mind to forego this review and all reviews for Irish races but that might be unfair on those with clean records who follow and participate in the sport. Furthermore, as several Irish runners will likely compete in Britain this season, it will be beneficial for this project that an eye is kept on what is happening across the Irish sea. 
Nevertheless, when a regulatory body sees fit to not only reduce the punishment of a man who allowed horses under his care to suffer immensely, but also afford that man the privilege of maintaining a very direct involvement in the sport is beyond comprehension. It is my opinion that HRI is completely unfit for purpose insofar as the welfare of its equine participants is concerned and I can not in good conscience endorse such a body by previewing their races. This is an issue that rightfully caused an uproar within the industry, but without sustained denunciation, is one which will quickly be forgotten until the next scandal rocks the sport for a few days. While my gesture is unlikely to have any potency, it is the only one I can make in my position. 
Race review
Ballinrobe hosted juvenile hurdles during the September of each year between 2013 and 2019, albeit occurring a couple of weeks later than this contest. The quality of three-year-old races at the venue is typically above average with decent sorts Clarcam, Way Back Home and Noble Inn being introduced in previous renewals. While the hurdling form brought into this year's edition was ordinary, the newcomers brought a good standard of flat form to the race. The front pair were two such horses who were also representing trainers that had won this race in the past. The withdrawal of Albert Camus took a little depth out of the contest without causing too much damage. Won in a time two seconds quicker than the mares' maiden held half an hour later, the gallop was a good and consistent one. While the quality of jumping was moderate, the field settled and travelled well enough before finishing in good intervals. Since the first three were all newcomers, quite how well the form holds up in the coming months remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the winner was an impressive one and there is no real reason to question the stability of the form as it stands.
Too Bright took ten attempts to get off the mark on the flat, but showed considerable improvement when running away with a Roscommon handicap off 58 in first time tongue strap. A hurdling career was mooted post race and after being backed in from 5/1 to 3/1 at the off, Too Bright made a fine start to his new vocation. Slightly blocked just before the first flight, his involvement almost ended at that point as he missed the hurdle and pecked very badly on landing. This incident relegated him to midfield where he remained after getting close to the second. He had moved into a more prominent position by the third and was leading the chase going out onto the final circuit. His jumping was decent from hereon with only minor errors such as slightly wandering approaching the fifth and trailing his hind legs through the top of the last counted against him. He jumped into a share of the lead at the penultimate flight and though briefly challenged on the turn for home, he was travelling much the strongest and was coasting at the distance. A good, if imperfect, jump at the last gave him a clear advantage and having been shaken up for just a couple of strides, had the race completely sewn up before easing on the run to the line. Too Bright maintained his flat improvement with another career best and although he was not fluent early on, he learned plenty about hurdling as the race progressed. The second and third did not put in the best rounds of jumping but they headed the market and each had compelling profiles. The fourth was well beaten despite jumping better than on his debut and looks a reasonable benchmark. The winning time was a good one for the level and with the form looking to have substance, this would quite comfortably be the best performance over hurdles by a three-year-old thus far in Britain or Ireland. While the Triumph is a long way away, it is quite surprising that Too Bright has yet to be quoted for the contest as although he has yet to warrant a short price, he has more credentials and scope than several others on those lists. The Listowel contest on Sunday has been given as a target and it is a race in which Noel Meade has two winners and two seconds from four runners. It is hoped that he faces decent opposition so that more can be learned of this interesting recruit. 125
Powerful Kieran was the first runner over hurdles for sire Protectionist. The Melbourne Cup winner is from the Königsstuhl/Monsun line which has shown itself most adept in the sphere and his standing at a respectable 16.0½hh further adds to his credentials. Powerful Kieran also has a more jumping rich damline than most juveniles as he is out of a winning chaser who has already produced a couple of winners, is a nephew of the useful Valley Ride and his third dam is the matriarch of a family which includes Jodami (3/1), Beer Goggles (3/2), Home Farm (3/2) and Gemini Lucy (3/3). While an animal with this pedigree would usually be kept as a store horse, Powerful Kieran had nine runs on the flat coming into this contest that include a couple of handicap seconds in June and a win on his latest outing. Stepping up to fourteen furlongs, he got off the mark at Killarney in comfortable fashion from a mark of 72. Steady in the market and sent off the 5/2 second favourite, Powerful Kieran was always in a prominent position but despite his racecourse experience, was sometimes prone to greenness. Wandering on the approach to the first, he was slightly close to the second and got rather lit up approaching the stands before being lazy running away from them. Getting close at the sixth, he was off the bridle half a mile out and awkward jumps at the last two did him no favours. While he briefly loomed alongside the winner on the turn for home, he was very readily done for toe before plugging on at the one pace. Without Too Bright, Powerful Kieran would have been a nice winning debutant and while he lacked fluency on occasion, it is reasonable to imagine him improving with experience. A pleasing performance overall and one which makes him one of the more interesting recruits seen thus far. Though the best of him is unlikely to be seen this season, Powerful Kieran should still be able to pay his way over the coming months. 116
Razdan was the best backed horse in this contest, starting the 9/4 favourite having been 10/1 in the morning. Beginning his career as an Aga Khan horse with Michael Halford, he fetched €32,000 at the Goffs February sale and while he remained a maiden after ten outings, his ability exceeded his mid-seventies flat rating. An explanation for his failure to find the winners' enclosure is that he has developed a reputation for starting his races slowly. This attribute has followed him over jumps as along with racing in the rear for much of the contest, his hurdling was slow throughout; either going over or getting away from his hurdles. Still with most of the field in front of him jumping the penultimate flight, Razdan was making only steady headway at the distance with his best work being done in the closing stages. Just as on the flat, his ability to win a race might be surpassed by an unwillingness to do so. While he shaped like a dour stayer, his pedigree is not particularly stout and until he proves otherwise, he might become frustrating under both codes. 112
Gamigin brought the strongest hurdles form into the contest by way of a respectable fifth to Realist at Down Royal. A drifter beforehand, opening at 6/1 before starting at 11/1, Gamigin was not foot perfect as he was big over the first, skewed over the fourth and slow away from the last. Nevertheless, it was still an improvement on his debut round. Racing just behind the leaders, he kept tabs on the front runners for much of the second circuit and only started to lose touch on the approach to the last whereafter he lost third on the run-in. Though inconsistent on the flat, Gamigin confirmed his Down Royal effort and probably improved by a few pounds in the process. Stamina is likely to be an issue during the winter months but while he needs a weak contest to be competitive in open company, he could find himself on a workable mark come the spring. 105
Catch Kodi could only be described as a modest maiden on the flat but while she was her trainer's first runner in the sphere, she received outside support in the ring being trimmed to half her 66/1 opening show. Sent off straight into the lead, she wandered into several of her hurdles and was also clumsy at a couple. Though she still had a share of the lead at two out, she weakened from thereon and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths into fifth. This was not a debut outing without promise but it did not exceed her flat efforts and even if she is eventually able to get a trip over hurdles, she will need a generous mark if she is to become competitive. 80
Prince Of Verona started his career alongside stablemate St Mark's Basilica in a Curragh maiden last year but finished down the field and would be next seen in the spring representing Denis Hogan. He managed to win at the eighth attempt in a ten furlong Naas handicap off 72 in July and ran to a similar level at Fairyhouse later that month. His latest flat effort was a write-off but he was not without support ahead of his hurdling debut as he started at 15/2 from an opening 14/1. However, held up towards the rear, he was skewed at most of his hurdles and often steady on the approach. He made minor headway late on but was still beaten by over forty lengths. Prince Of Verona has the capacity to do better but this is his second lacklustre performance in succession and he needs to be more fluent in his hurdling in any case. 78
War Thunder is probably flattered by his flat rating of 71 and after unseating at the first on his hurdling debut, jumped poorly next time. Though initially racing in midfield, his big and slow jumping put paid to his position. He was progressively losing touch as the race progressed before finishing just under sixty lengths behind the winner. 60
Nakao ran a fair race on his second outing for Ger Lyons back in March but that effort has been followed by seven successive duck eggs with his latest four coming under the care of Paul Flynn. Completely unfancied in the market, Nakao was always in the rear and made mistakes at the first and third before finishing tired and completely tailed off. 15
Uno Miligre had bits and pieces of form as a two-year-old for Denis Hogan but has shown very little at three for James McAuley. Racing towards the rear, Uno Miligre made a few minor errors without making any impression on the contest before pulling up after two out. 0
No Never Again finished down the field in three outings last year and beat only two rivals home on his sole start at three. Sent off at 50/1, he went right and missed the first, giving Peter Carberry no chance of staying on board. He followed the field riderless and continued to make errors although he was decent enough over a couple. 0
Television was the shortest priced of the experienced runners and based on her performances in three prior hurdle races, looked likely to appreciate the conditions here. In touch for most of the contest, she jumped reasonably save for getting close to the second and being slightly big over the fourth. However, while she shaped like a stayer on previous outings, she appeared to tire in the closing stages. Losing ground after a steady jump two out, she missed the last, landed steeply and stumbled in a lateral manner which gave Eoin Walsh no chance of maintaining the partnership. Given that an extended trip on softer ground should have suited Television well theoretically, her underperformance suggests that she is perhaps not a stayer in waiting and rather a filly with more general limitations. 87
 

Preview review
No preview was written on this race and no previews will be written on races held under the jurisdiction of HRI for the foreseeable future. I had half the mind to forego this review and all reviews for Irish races but that might be unfair on those with clean records who follow and participate in the sport. Furthermore, as several Irish runners will likely compete in Britain this season, it will be beneficial for this project that an eye is kept on what is happening across the Irish sea. 
Nevertheless, when a regulatory body sees fit to not only reduce the punishment of a man who allowed horses under his care to suffer immensely, but also afford that man the privilege of maintaining a very direct involvement in the sport is beyond comprehension. It is my opinion that HRI is completely unfit for purpose insofar as the welfare of its equine participants is concerned and I can not in good conscience endorse such a body by previewing their races. This is an issue that rightfully caused an uproar within the industry, but without sustained denunciation, is one which will quickly be forgotten until the next scandal rocks the sport for a few days. While my gesture is unlikely to have any potency, it is the only one I can make in my position. 
Race review
Ballinrobe hosted juvenile hurdles during the September of each year between 2013 and 2019, albeit occurring a couple of weeks later than this contest. The quality of three-year-old races at the venue is typically above average with decent sorts Clarcam, Way Back Home and Noble Inn being introduced in previous renewals. While the hurdling form brought into this year's edition was ordinary, the newcomers brought a good standard of flat form to the race. The front pair were two such horses who were also representing trainers that had won this race in the past. The withdrawal of Albert Camus took a little depth out of the contest without causing too much damage. Won in a time two seconds quicker than the mares' maiden held half an hour later, the gallop was a good and consistent one. While the quality of jumping was moderate, the field settled and travelled well enough before finishing in good intervals. Since the first three were all newcomers, quite how well the form holds up in the coming months remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the winner was an impressive one and there is no real reason to question the stability of the form as it stands.
Too Bright took ten attempts to get off the mark on the flat, but showed considerable improvement when running away with a Roscommon handicap off 58 in first time tongue strap. A hurdling career was mooted post race and after being backed in from 5/1 to 3/1 at the off, Too Bright made a fine start to his new vocation. Slightly blocked just before the first flight, his involvement almost ended at that point as he missed the hurdle and pecked very badly on landing. This incident relegated him to midfield where he remained after getting close to the second. He had moved into a more prominent position by the third and was leading the chase going out onto the final circuit. His jumping was decent from hereon with only minor errors such as slightly wandering approaching the fifth and trailing his hind legs through the top of the last counted against him. He jumped into a share of the lead at the penultimate flight and though briefly challenged on the turn for home, he was travelling much the strongest and was coasting at the distance. A good, if imperfect, jump at the last gave him a clear advantage and having been shaken up for just a couple of strides, had the race completely sewn up before easing on the run to the line. Too Bright maintained his flat improvement with another career best and although he was not fluent early on, he learned plenty about hurdling as the race progressed. The second and third did not put in the best rounds of jumping but they headed the market and each had compelling profiles. The fourth was well beaten despite jumping better than on his debut and looks a reasonable benchmark. The winning time was a good one for the level and with the form looking to have substance, this would quite comfortably be the best performance over hurdles by a three-year-old thus far in Britain or Ireland. While the Triumph is a long way away, it is quite surprising that Too Bright has yet to be quoted for the contest as although he has yet to warrant a short price, he has more credentials and scope than several others on those lists. The Listowel contest on Sunday has been given as a target and it is a race in which Noel Meade has two winners and two seconds from four runners. It is hoped that he faces decent opposition so that more can be learned of this interesting recruit. 125
Powerful Kieran was the first runner over hurdles for sire Protectionist. The Melbourne Cup winner is from the Königsstuhl/Monsun line which has shown itself most adept in the sphere and his standing at a respectable 16.0½hh further adds to his credentials. Powerful Kieran also has a more jumping rich damline than most juveniles as he is out of a winning chaser who has already produced a couple of winners, is a nephew of the useful Valley Ride and his third dam is the matriarch of a family which includes Jodami (3/1), Beer Goggles (3/2), Home Farm (3/2) and Gemini Lucy (3/3). While an animal with this pedigree would usually be kept as a store horse, Powerful Kieran had nine runs on the flat coming into this contest that include a couple of handicap seconds in June and a win on his latest outing. Stepping up to fourteen furlongs, he got off the mark at Killarney in comfortable fashion from a mark of 72. Steady in the market and sent off the 5/2 second favourite, Powerful Kieran was always in a prominent position but despite his racecourse experience, was sometimes prone to greenness. Wandering on the approach to the first, he was slightly close to the second and got rather lit up approaching the stands before being lazy running away from them. Getting close at the sixth, he was off the bridle half a mile out and awkward jumps at the last two did him no favours. While he briefly loomed alongside the winner on the turn for home, he was very readily done for toe before plugging on at the one pace. Without Too Bright, Powerful Kieran would have been a nice winning debutant and while he lacked fluency on occasion, it is reasonable to imagine him improving with experience. A pleasing performance overall and one which makes him one of the more interesting recruits seen thus far. Though the best of him is unlikely to be seen this season, Powerful Kieran should still be able to pay his way over the coming months. 116
Razdan was the best backed horse in this contest, starting the 9/4 favourite having been 10/1 in the morning. Beginning his career as an Aga Khan horse with Michael Halford, he fetched €32,000 at the Goffs February sale and while he remained a maiden after ten outings, his ability exceeded his mid-seventies flat rating. An explanation for his failure to find the winners' enclosure is that he has developed a reputation for starting his races slowly. This attribute has followed him over jumps as along with racing in the rear for much of the contest, his hurdling was slow throughout; either going over or getting away from his hurdles. Still with most of the field in front of him jumping the penultimate flight, Razdan was making only steady headway at the distance with his best work being done in the closing stages. Just as on the flat, his ability to win a race might be surpassed by an unwillingness to do so. While he shaped like a dour stayer, his pedigree is not particularly stout and until he proves otherwise, he might become frustrating under both codes. 112
Gamigin brought the strongest hurdles form into the contest by way of a respectable fifth to Realist at Down Royal. A drifter beforehand, opening at 6/1 before starting at 11/1, Gamigin was not foot perfect as he was big over the first, skewed over the fourth and slow away from the last. Nevertheless, it was still an improvement on his debut round. Racing just behind the leaders, he kept tabs on the front runners for much of the second circuit and only started to lose touch on the approach to the last whereafter he lost third on the run-in. Though inconsistent on the flat, Gamigin confirmed his Down Royal effort and probably improved by a few pounds in the process. Stamina is likely to be an issue during the winter months but while he needs a weak contest to be competitive in open company, he could find himself on a workable mark come the spring. 105
Catch Kodi could only be described as a modest maiden on the flat but while she was her trainer's first runner in the sphere, she received outside support in the ring being trimmed to half her 66/1 opening show. Sent off straight into the lead, she wandered into several of her hurdles and was also clumsy at a couple. Though she still had a share of the lead at two out, she weakened from thereon and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths into fifth. This was not a debut outing without promise but it did not exceed her flat efforts and even if she is eventually able to get a trip over hurdles, she will need a generous mark if she is to become competitive. 80
Prince Of Verona started his career alongside stablemate St Mark's Basilica in a Curragh maiden last year but finished down the field and would be next seen in the spring representing Denis Hogan. He managed to win at the eighth attempt in a ten furlong Naas handicap off 72 in July and ran to a similar level at Fairyhouse later that month. His latest flat effort was a write-off but he was not without support ahead of his hurdling debut as he started at 15/2 from an opening 14/1. However, held up towards the rear, he was skewed at most of his hurdles and often steady on the approach. He made minor headway late on but was still beaten by over forty lengths. Prince Of Verona has the capacity to do better but this is his second lacklustre performance in succession and he needs to be more fluent in his hurdling in any case. 78
War Thunder is probably flattered by his flat rating of 71 and after unseating at the first on his hurdling debut, jumped poorly next time. Though initially racing in midfield, his big and slow jumping put paid to his position. He was progressively losing touch as the race progressed before finishing just under sixty lengths behind the winner. 60
Nakao ran a fair race on his second outing for Ger Lyons back in March but that effort has been followed by seven successive duck eggs with his latest four coming under the care of Paul Flynn. Completely unfancied in the market, Nakao was always in the rear and made mistakes at the first and third before finishing tired and completely tailed off. 15
Uno Miligre had bits and pieces of form as a two-year-old for Denis Hogan but has shown very little at three for James McAuley. Racing towards the rear, Uno Miligre made a few minor errors without making any impression on the contest before pulling up after two out. 0
No Never Again finished down the field in three outings last year and beat only two rivals home on his sole start at three. Sent off at 50/1, he went right and missed the first, giving Peter Carberry no chance of staying on board. He followed the field riderless and continued to make errors although he was decent enough over a couple. 0
Television was the shortest priced of the experienced runners and based on her performances in three prior hurdle races, looked likely to appreciate the conditions here. In touch for most of the contest, she jumped reasonably save for getting close to the second and being slightly big over the fourth. However, while she shaped like a stayer on previous outings, she appeared to tire in the closing stages. Losing ground after a steady jump two out, she missed the last, landed steeply and stumbled in a lateral manner which gave Eoin Walsh no chance of maintaining the partnership. Given that an extended trip on softer ground should have suited Television well theoretically, her underperformance suggests that she is perhaps not a stayer in waiting and rather a filly with more general limitations. 87
 

PERTH - 5th September - Review
Before I get into the review, I would like to thank Milton Harris for keeping us updated on the wellbeing of his admirable filly Aliomaana. She has returned home in one piece and is doing alright. If anybody is interested, there is an opportunity for ownership in her. Though it would be incredulous of me to suggest that she is guaranteed to win the Wensleydale, Prestbury, the Fillies' race at Aintree, Finale and Finesse before becoming the first four-year-old to win the Champion Hurdle since Forestation in 1942, I certainly wouldn't dissuade anybody from getting involved. She is a genuine and enthusiastic little filly not short of ability and should give connections plenty of fun days out through the season. 
Preview review
This looked a trappy contest beforehand and this played out in the market with three of the five starting as 11/4 co-favourites with the fourth a 100/30 shot. Nevertheless, the front pair on the prospects list had the race between them going to the last with the strong prospect looking the likelier winner before capitulating. Moneykenny somewhat exceeded expectations but was still well held and did not do himself any favours by taking a hold. Boundsy Boy disappointed to the tune of one position and had probably not recovered from his handicap exertions. While the gods of fortune might be lamented, there is no real reflection necessitated by the outcome of this contest. 
Race review
Just the five runners faced the starter but none of the participants could have been ruled out entirely. The contest for favouritism ended up being split three ways although two runners eventually stood (for want of a better term) above the rest; namely the highest rated flat recruit and the most promising of those with experience. To the former went the spoils as the latter was most unfortunate in falling at the last. No blame can be assigned to the rider who used the same level of cajoling at the two previous flights to get very neat leaps from his mount. Rather, she simply failed to pick up her legs in time and that was the end of her race. Mercifully, she returned home safe and sound to fight again another day. The pace was a steady one which was no quicker than sensible. Consequently, the winning time was slow, several of these took quite a keen hold and the overall standard of jumping left something to be desired. Notwithstanding, the winner and the faller looked much the best on the day and both should have more to give going forward.
New Reality won one from six on the flat for Jim Bolger with the form of his Tipperary success back in May working out very well. He was the latest in the line of juvenile hurdlers to make the journey from Coolcullen to Stoodleigh and though arguably fortuitous, he became the sixth of the eleven to win in the sphere. Starting the day as 5/2 joint favourite, he opened in the ring at 10/3 before being clipped into 11/4 co-favourite of three. Racing in midfield, he was fairly keen early but soon settled into a good rhythm. While he did not make any serious errors, he had a habit of steadying into his flights and did not get very high at three out. Making his move afterwards, he travelled strongly to loom upsides the leader at the penultimate flight. However, he was not as fluent as his rival as he hopped the flight and was slightly skewed; costing him some momentum. Though still seemingly full of running, he was not making ground on the leader and was a couple of lengths down when left in the lead at the last. There, he was very nearly brought down by Aliomaana and David Noonan did tremendously well to maintain the partnership. Such was the extent of New Reality's lead, it mattered not that his rider completed the race without irons as he passed the post fourteen lengths clear of the remainder. Whether New Reality would have won had his rival stayed upright is a matter of speculation. While he had yet to come fully off the bridle and surely would have stayed beyond the line, the question of his finding that necessary extra gear remained unanswered. Notwithstanding, this was a very promising hurdling debut and although the form is nothing out of the ordinary, and he could be vulnerable under a penalty over a sharp trip, New Reality looks to have more than enough scope to leave this behind and will be of interest in the coming months when the rain gets into the ground. 104
Moneykenny was a winner on his penultimate flat outing for Andrew Balding and has the profile to at least match his form over hurdles. His jumps debut at Newton Abbot in the beginning of July was not without promise, although he failed to match that performance a fortnight later and had not been seen since. Steady in the market throughout the day, Moneykenny raced keenly while held up in the rear. His hurdling was not especially fluent as he wandered before hopping over the first, got close to the fourth, was steady and tight at the fifth while his last two jumps were both steady and untidy. He had moved into third when he had left the back but never threatened to make any real impression on the leaders. Ground was lost on the winner as he too was hampered by the faller at the last, but he still had enough to hold on for second. Probably matching the form of his debut effort, Moneykenny will now be eligible for a handicap mark which appears to be his best chance to be competitive in the sphere. 90
Boundsy Boy, following a 309 day absence, finished runner-up on his first two starts over hurdles before disappointing on his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago. Though he should have appreciated the return to novice company, his latest experience appeared to leave a mark on his hurdling as he posted much his worst round of jumping to date. Going to his left on numerous occasions, he was particularly untidy over the first, third and sixth. Although he led the pursuit of the leader for much of the contest, he lost his position on leaving the back and was never a threat from there. While he may benefit from another drop in the weights, he has yet to run within nine pounds of his current mark and he questions to answer going forward. 89
Don't Look Back was not out of the reckoning on his consistent flat form and is closely related to a couple of good young jumpers on the damline. However, he was the only runner to go without market support and was keen both on his way to the start and in the race itself. Held up towards the rear, he made errors at all of his flights; starting with big and skewed jumps before moving to tired leaps in the closing stages. Beaten by forty lengths, there was not a great deal of encouragement to be drawn from this outing. 64
Aliomaana failed to win for John Gosden, but grabbed a couple of seconds on the all weather prior to fetching 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Juveniles formerly trained by John Gosden often leave little wriggle room for their new handlers, although Milton Harris got three wins out of Pyramid Place last term and was unlucky not to make it two from two here. Quietly fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Stratford, she was not the tidiest jumper but raced with plenty of enthusiasm before tiring late on to finish third. The first part of that story was similar here as, pulling herself into the lead shortly after the start, she was slightly distracted when steady at the first, but got over the second alright despite wandering on the approach. Though still fairly fresh, she had settled into a sensible rhythm up front and while she was rather skewed at the third and briefly lost her footing on some loose turf passing the stands, was still decent enough over the next. Hopping through the next in a fashion quite accurately described by Mike Cattermole as unconventional, Mitch Bastyan cajoled her at the right moment over the next two and got very neat leaps out of her in the process. While Aliomaana briefly looked in danger from the looming presence of New Reality, she bounded on nicely on the run to the last and appeared the likeliest winner at the time. Unfortunately, having a lapse in concentration, she did not lift her feet high enough and ended up rolling onto the ground. Mercifully, she got up ok and it has been reported that she returned home in one piece. Although she is still a good half-stone from her best flat form, this represented a decent leap forward from her debut at Stratford. Provided her ego remains unscathed, her consistency on the flat and promise over hurdles should make her more than capable of gaining compensation at this level. 100
 

Perth
Scotland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow and is the resurrection of a contest that was held at Perth three times between 2014 and 2016. The field sizes for those editions were three, three and five; although while only five are set to face the starter here, there are only two races on the card with a larger number of runners. Juvenile hurdles overlooked by Scone Palace are generally modest affairs with their average winners' seasonal RPR of 110.77 being the eleventh lowest in the country. The Wallace Line, who won this race in 2014, was the best graduate from this contest - going on to finish third in the Finale. Ski Sunday and Orsippus are other decent juveniles to have ran here before the winter. This year's renewal looks fairly ordinary but it should be competitive as the placed hurdles form is of a respectable standard and the newcomers have flat ratings sufficient to be capable at this level. A flat, right handed circuit, Perth's easy configuration and generally firmer ground contribute to higher DIs than average of 1.50 median, and 1.58 mean. The clear round rate of 98.12% is the fifth highest in Britain and is also one of the kinder tracks for hurdling newcomers. The going is currently good with only slim prospects of rainfall during the morning. 
Boundsy Boy bg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (60) 62 j3-0-2 (100) 85 91
Awtaad (Diktat){21-a}(1.25) 2/1 Majestic Sun 6th 2m Novices' Handicap Hurdle (97), Plumpton 2015
Fetching just 1,500 guineas when leaving Richard Fahey for Oliver Greenall last Autumn, Boundsy Boy ran with credit when an eleven length second to Koi Dodville at Aintree after a break of 309 days. His jumping had been acceptable and though the form is moderate, he was entitled to improve for his first outing after a long absence and surgeries to his wind and tackle. This is just what he did a month later at Stratford. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Boundsy Boy got in quite close to the first, but though he was by no means slick, he was competent enough from there until the penultimate flight where he was low and untidy. Joined at the top of the straight, he was unable to regain the lead despite having the rail to help. Nevertheless, he did not capitulate without a fight. His official mark of 103 looked harsh ahead of his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago and surrounded by more mature horses, his jumping also suffered as he was less nimble and made a couple of careless errors. Racing in the rear, he made some headway along the back, but made no impression from three out and would finish thirty-one lengths behind the winner. Boundsy Boy should appreciate this return to juvenile company and with his Stratford form being just about the strongest on offer over hurdles, he can give a good account of himself.
Don't Look Back grg Lucinda Russell f7-0-1 (64) 69
Oasis Dream (Kirkwall){14-c}(1.91) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices' Hurdle 2010
Local-ish trainer Lucinda Russell does get winning juveniles and although her overall record is just below average, half of her winners did so first time out. Her first runner in the sphere for this campaign is Don't Look Back who left Richard Hughes for 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Though he failed to score in seven outings, Don't Look Back has run consistently and his rating of 64 is a fair reflection of his ability. However, he has been awkward under pressure and of Richard Hughes's nine former inmates in the sphere, none have won or even improved on their flat exploits. Oasis Dream has one of the poorest records in the division with a winner runner rate of 6.67%, and an improvement rate of just 5.26%. The damline is more promising however as uncle Sleepy Hollow was a good novice hurdler and cousin Fiveandtwenty was a useful juvenile hurdler last term. Furthermore, Don't Look Back is a full brother to Gale Force Ten whose record as a sire in this sphere is three winners from eight with an improvement rate of 80%. The overall profile of Don't Look Back is something quite akin to the curate's egg as although there is enough merit to make him an interesting recruit, there are a couple of elements which destabilise his case in this company. 
Moneykenny grg Olly Murphy f5-1-1 (65) 70 j2-0-1 (-) 87 90
Kendargent (Kheleyf){14-c}(1.22) 2/1 Blinka Me 92 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (82), Sedgefield 2012
After leaving Andrew Balding for 26,000 guineas at the Tattersalls May sale, Moneykenny looked to have solid prospects ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July. A 65 rated winner on the flat, his breeding and training connections suggested he should at least match his flat ability in time. However, he was very keen in the early stages and jumped the first with little fluency - wandering on the approach and jumping big and markedly to his right. Though his jumping would settle down over the next couple, he was still more than a handful for Aidan Coleman, keeping a keen grip passing the stands. Nevertheless, he still had enough energy to move into the lead turning for home and traded as low as 1.1 in-running. However, he landed steeply at the penultimate flight and got in very tight at the last before relinquishing the lead near the finish. Returning to the venue a fortnight later, he was weighted to come out on top. However, despite opening in the ring at 11/10, he drifted out to 5/2 and ran accordingly. Racing in touch on the inside, he was cautious over the first two and never really settled into a solid rhythm. While he was slightly baulked on landing at the penultimate flight, his race was already run by that stage. There was no explanation offered for this performance. He makes his return after a seven week absence but with his yard landing a double earlier in the week, his ability gives him some chance. Although given that he is prone to inconsistency, it remains to be seen if he is able to run to his potential.
New Reality bg Nigel Hawke f6-1-0 (81) 86
New Approach (Teofilo){5-f}(0.60) 2/1 Novis Adventus 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
The passage between the yards of Jim Bolger and Nigel Hawke was covered earlier in the week when Boulette ran at Worcester. While Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is respectable in and of itself, it becomes quite impressive when taking former Bolger horses in isolation. Five from eight such horses had been winners prior to Wednesday and Boulette came very close to making it six from nine when let down by a lack of experience. The latest animal cut from this cloth is New Reality who, with a flat mark of 81, is also the highest rated of this particular class. After failing to breach the front nine in a couple of outings last November, New Reality finished a respectable sixth on his return at Cork in first time tongue tie. He broke his duck next time when winning a Tipperary maiden over an extended twelve furlongs on yielding ground. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was getting shoved along with three furlongs left to race. Nevertheless, despite looking green under pressure, he stuck to his task well and managed to get his head in front in the shadow of the post. Four subsequent winners have since come out of that contest and the form took a large boost when the runner-up had six future winners behind when winning a Navan maiden by eleven lengths. New Reality stepped down in trip by a couple of furlongs at Naas next time and though not disgraced in finishing a five length fourth to Benaud, he did find himself rather flat footed. He was last seen in the Ulster Derby back in June where he ran no kind of race on the good ground and finished detached. Sire New Approach has a strong record in the division with a winner to runner rate of 38.10%, and cousin Novis Adventus (also by New Approach) was a useful handicap hurdler. New Reality has much the strongest form from the flat and while the yard's runners typically improve with experience, this did not prevent Boulette from running a fine race the other day and Nigel Hawke's record with juveniles at Perth stands at two winners from three. However, even if his performance in the Ulster Derby is ignored, New Reality will almost certainly need a much sterner test than is offered tomorrow before reaching his potential in this sphere. 
Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 87 86
Raven's Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
Though winless after five outings for John Gosden, Aliomaana's rating of 74 is in the eightieth percentile for flat recruits in the division. She twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy's Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. While former residents of Clarehaven Stables seldom maintain their flat form between codes, Milton Harris was able to get Pyramid Place to win three times last season and Aliomaana looked another promising recruit when third at Stratford last week. Available at 33/1 in the morning, she was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. Though fairly keen in the early stages, she settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Aliomaana did make a few minor errors - namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, it was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she can be more competitive in this discipline - particularly with her sex allowance here. 
tl;dr
Boundsy Boy - Cheap purchase but ran creditably on his first two starts over hurdles. Failed to run to form in Bangor handicap last time but should appreciate the return to novice company.
Don't Look Back - Consistent maiden on the flat but has raced awkwardly. Sire has poor record although there are a couple of good novice hurdlers on the damline. Patchy profile overall. 
Moneykenny - Winner on the flat and not without promise on hurdling debut. Disappointed when last seen seven weeks ago, lacks consistency and has a suspect temperament. 
New Reality - Much the strongest flat form and represents interesting connections. However, will almost certainly need a much sterner test in order to be seen to best effect. 
Aliomaana - Placed on flat for John Gosden and ran with promise on hurdles debut at Stratford last week. Tired late on but likely to improve and comes out well at the weights. 
Strong prospects
1. Aliomaana
Reasonable prospects
2. New Reality
3. Boundsy Boy
Feasible/Moderate prospects
4. Don't Look Back
5. Moneykenny
 

Thank you Trotter

Unless you're thinking of the good staying chaser from 1977/78, the more modest two mile chaser of the late 1930s/early 1940s, or the classy French steeplechaser of the early 2000s, I can only imagine your having seen my posts elsewhere

Anyways, time for the first preview of the season. Again, I am not a tipster and everything here is for information purposes only!
Personally, I think shouting the word "hype" over and over again in front of strobe lights to the sounds hardstyle techno and obnoxious siren effects would be an apt means of expressing the amount of excitement one ought to have for Saturday's three fifteen at Hexham. Nevertheless, some people prefer words so here are are some words. Two thousand, two hundred and seventy three of them in fact. Enjoy!
At the beginning of this century, the season's opening juvenile hurdle took place at Market Rasen during mid-late July. In 2004, Stratford supplanted Market Rasen by a week before the latter reclaimed its position in 2006 by hosting the first juvenile hurdle to be held in June since summer jumping became a whole thing. Not to be outdone, Stratford raised the curtain on the Tenth of June in 2007 before Hexham stepped in to give those competing in the 2008 Epsom Derby an insight into what awaited them if they did not fancy retiring to the breeding sheds.  The following year, Stratford hosted the first three-year-old hurdle to be held in May. Everybody agreed that this was silly and apart from Ffos Las going four days ahead of Hexham in 2012, and Newton Abbot getting things underway during "the uncertain times", British juvenile hurdlers have been making their first forays at the country's most beautiful racecourse. 
With an average winning DI of 0.99, 0.51 points below that of the average runner, Hexham is the most demanding racecourse of any British or Irish track with ten or more participants since 2004/05. The completion rate of 77.44% attests to this notion, although it is not so demanding insofar as jumping is concerned as its clear round rate of 97.64% is well above average. The going is currently good, good-to-soft in places, and will be watered to maintained as no significant rain is forecast in the interim. From a punting perspective, Hexham does get more than its fair share of beaten odds-on favourites (six from ten since 2004/05), although its winners' mean SP of 5.08, median 3.25, is much kinder by comparison. It will come as a surprise to nobody that the average winner of this contest has a very low seasonal best RPR with the mark of 108.47 bettered by all courses apart from Cartmel and Fakenham. This particular contest is no exception with its winners posting average seasonal bests of 103.59, although it is not without its occasional useful participants. City Dreamer, Come On Sunshine and Maria Magdalena went on to reach the frame in the Wensleydale Hurdle while 2008 winner Simarian won and placed in graded company at Cheltenham prior to finishing seventh in that season's Triumph. Saturday's edition looks an above average renewal with several respectable trainers and sires represented, three runners whose flat form exceeds the standard sufficient to win this race along with a Saint des Saints nephew of Sprinter Sacre. While somewhat trappy and not likely to provide any superstars, it would not be unreasonable to imagine it producing future winners during the early season. 
Family Time bg Alex Hales f1-0-0 (-) 0
Excelebration (Azamour){7}(2.00) 3/1 Architrave 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2010
Alex Hales has a fairly ordinary record with juvenile hurdlers, although he enjoyed fruitful spells in the division during the past two summers courtesy of Hiconic and Maria Magdalena. His first representative this term is set to be Family Time who was tailed off on his sole start in a Newbury novice stakes last October. Family Time can be forgiven that outing as he did not emerge from the stalls until the rest of the field had completed a furlong. However, he was still an unfancied 200/1 chance that day and his subsequent absence will be a concern. Furthermore, while his granddam is a half-sister to 2010s prolific early season juvenile Architrave, the rest of the pedigree does not bode well as Excelebration has just one winner from sixteen in the division, damsire Azamour has just one from twelve, and though Windshear (2/1) was a good stayer on the flat, he failed to win from seven starts over hurdles. 
Inferno Sacree bg Nigel Hawke Unraced
Saint des Saints (Daramsar){u}(0.67) 2/1 Sprinter Sacre 1st Champion Chase (G1), Cheltenham 2013
Few early season juveniles will have as compelling a pedigree as the unraced Inferno Sacree. Costing €37,000 at Arqana as a yearling, Inferno Sacree is a son of Saint des Saints, an outsdtanding source of juveniles both domestically (Whetstone, Buddy Banks, Goliath du Berlais) and as exports (Monmiral, Fusil Raffles, Sametegal) with laudable figures across the board. The damline is also compelling as it includes half-brother Emir Sacree, useful sorts Flinteur Sacre (2/1), Gazump (3/1), Tiot Cas (3/2), Echo Sacre (3/2) and most notably, the outstanding champion Sprinter Sacre. Sending Inferno Sacree to an unusual location for his debut is Nigel Hawke who maintained his solid record in the division last season with three winners including Historic Heart. However, while three of his fourteen runners at Hexham have been winners, he is not generally given to sending juveniles to the venue and the eyecatching booking of Brian Hughes is not compelling from a statistical perspective as the pair have yet to have a winner from three. Furthermore, Hawke's first time out record in the sphere of two wins from fifty-four is a poor one which does not bode well considering that the overall strike rate for unraced newcomers is a miserly 2.04%. Notwithstanding, the trainer did infamously saddle the unraced Tiger Roll ahead of his racecourse debut at Market Rasen in 2013.
Koi Dodville bc David Pipe f7-1-3 (33.5/73.7) 74
French Fifteen (Aussie Rules){5-h}(3.00) 3/2 Uriah Heep 2m Novices' Handicap Chase (126), Ludlow 2014
https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/koi-dodville
Since 2004/05, fifty horses have been claimed out of flat races on the continent prior to juvenile hurdling campaigns in Britain and Ireland. With eleven winners sharing nineteen successes, their record is a respectable one. David Pipe accounted for nine of these animals amongst whom four were winners - most notably Adagio who won three last term, including the Grade One at Chepstow, prior to twice placing at the festivals. However, Adagio was very much the exception in this regard as only he and Bocamix (123) achieved RPRs exceeding 120.despite sixteen such horses being rated 80 and above on the flat. The latest import is Koi Dodville who was claimed by David Pipe for €14,506 after finishing second in a good ground ten furlong contest at Saint Cloud last month. The third and fourth each finished runner-up next time, and Koi Dodville had been running respectably since his return in March, placing twice in handicap company at Pornichet before getting off the mark at Nancy over 1950 meters on his penultimate outing. Tracking the clear leader for much of the race, he went into the lead a with a furlong and a half left to run before holding on to an ever decreasing lead at the line. Last time at Saint-Cloud, Koi Dodville again went clear at the distance, but did not look entirely resolute in his failed attempt to fend off his challenger. The headgear worn in France has been left off for his hurdling debut. Insofar as his pedigree is concerned French Fifteen has made an encouraging start from limited opportunities with three winners from ten in France, and the promising French Aseel being one of the two to have raced in Britain or Ireland. However, the same can not yet be said for Aussie Rules as a damsire and the are few jumpers on the damline prior to Uriah Heep (3/2) and City Hall (5/2). David Pipe has saddled one winner from three in this contest, and his first time strike rate of 18.18% is very respectable. However, of the yard's claimer sourced flat imports, only Adagio won first time, while Nike Walker, Closer To Home and Paricolor (also bought out of the Ludovic Gadbin yard) would not score until entering handicap company. 
McGregors Charge bg Nigel Hawke Unraced
Recharge (Le Triton){36}(1.13) 2/2 Pafadas 1st Prix de Chambly (L,3yoH), Auteuil 2013
Nigel Hawke's second runner, and presumably his second string, is another unraced newcomer in McGregors Charge. Though not as immediately prestigious as his stablemate's, the homebred McGregors Charge's damline is not without its merits. The dam is a winning two mile chaser while the granddam presides over a family containing several useful French youngsters including listed placed Dans l'Espas (2/2) and listed winner Pafadas (2/2), herself a dam of black type earners Mauricius and Altus. Recharge is without any juveniles in France, Britain or Ireland, although three of his seven hurdlers have been winners and Cape Cross has produced a couple of winning sires in the sphere in Golden Horn and Sea The Stars. Le Triton has not been tested as a damire of juveniles on these shores, but he was responsible for the talented Grand Charly as a sire. McGregors Charge is entitled to respect on his pedigree, although his limitations being a debutant are addressed in Inferno Sacree's piece.
Percy Willis bg Jedd O'Keeffe f6-0-2 (71) 72 
Sir Percy (Dansili){16-a}(0.33) 3/1 Fire Top 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Kempton 1989
Sir Percy is one of several sires in this contest with above average credentials, and though he rather lacks in terms of star quality, his strike rate between the months of June and October stands at 40.63%. His first declared representative of the new season, Percy Willis. just about sets the standard on flat form according to Timeform. Though winless in four starts for Eve Johnson Houghton (whose graduates have a three wins from nineteen runners in juvenile hurdles), he managed to place twice at Lingfield prior to joining Jedd O'Keeffe for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls March sale. The Middleham trainer has been having something of a lean spell, although he did hit the crossbar at Ayr this afternoon, signalling a potential return to form. His overall record in the sphere is a respectable one with a 27.27% winner to runner rate, a 47.37% improvement rate, and a first time out record of 14.29% which increases to 28.57% with flat runners rated 62 and above. Percy Willis did not impress on his stable debut at Beverley, but he was better last time at Redcar where while he pulled in the early stages, was able to settle better ahead of getting outpaced to finish a three and a half length fourth. That these performances came on good to firm suggests he can improve with a bit more give in the ground. The damline is not massively encouraging as the first winner along the line, Reg Akehurst's Fire Top, comes at the third dam and Dansili has just five winners from thirty-nine as a damsire. Nevertheless, with stamina essentially assured, demonstrable flat form, and a trainer with solid credentials for this contest, the credentials of Percy Willis are worthy of respect.
Smart Boyo bg Philip Kirby f3-0-0 (54) 45
War Command (Kheleyf){13-a}(2.11) 3/1 Minnesota 1st 2m Novices' Selling Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2000
Trainer Philip Kirby's improvement rate of 65% is the strongest in this field and War Command was able to get off the mark in the sphere last season with Crassus and Battle of Benburb scoring in Ireland. However, Smart Boyo's switch to hurdles will need to bring about a significant amount of improvement as his three flat runs this spring, beaten almost eighty lengths combined, have offered very little promise. There is little encouragement to be drawn from the damline either as the nearest winning jumps relative was a modest one, and War Command's two winners each had lower dosage indexes.
Space Kid chg Adrian Paul Keatley f12-1-6 (64) 70
Tamayuz (Danehill Dancer){13-c}(2.11) 3/1 Cape Express 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (125), Aintree 2012
Though better known for his sprinters and milers, Tamayuz is not above producing stayers like Desert Skyline. Furthermore, his daughter, Skylark Lady, won this race in 2016 and with four winning juveniles from thirteen, his overall record in the sphere is a solid one. Space Kid's damline is also respectable as Danehill Dancer's record is the best of a modest set represented in this field, and winning hurdlers Leo McGarry and Cape Express each appear at 3/1. A winner of a Wolverhampton nursery last November, Space Kid performed consistently on the all-weather during the winter before maintaining his form on the turf on his latest outings at Thirsk and Beverley. Like many tough, game, consistent and versatile sorts of his ilk, Space Kid appears to be a victim of his own success as his flat rating, which leaves him a good half stone off the top two here, is not relenting. Furthermore, his yard, which has had one winning juvenile from eight, has recently had few horses run to form. 
Saramenha chf Jamie Snowden f3-0-1 (59) 59
Mastercraftsman (Zamindar){1-e}(2.43) 3/3 Voix du Soir 1st 3800m Handicap Hurdle (58.0), Dieppe 2020
The prolific Mastercraftsman has twenty-three individual winning juvenile hurdlers to his name including several useful sorts such as Master Blueyes, Wolf Of Windlesham and Intense Tango. Though the damline is quiet on the first few rungs, Voix du Nord, a talented sire of juveniles, appears at 3/2 while Detroit City, Royal Shakespeare and Tower Bridge can all be found in the distance at 5/3. However, these factors will need to have a significant impact on the credentials of Saramenha. Her two runs last term for Ralph Beckett, whose graduates have a good winner to runner rate, but poor improvement rate, were fair at best and following a 15,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls last Autumn, she failed to show in a Nottingham maiden over an extended mile four weeks ago. Jamie Snowden has been among the winners recently, and he has saddled three to score in juvenile hurdles from eighteen, although his improvement rate of just 10% between codes is well below par. 
Strong prospects
1. Percy Willis
Reasonable prospects
2. Inferno Sacree
3. Koi Dodville
4. Space Kid
Feasible prospects
5. McGregors Charge
Moderate prospects
6. Saramenha
Negligible prospects
7. Smart Boyo
8. Family Time

Cheers for that CD

When I did my prospects list, the respective trainer form of the two principals was what tilted it in favour of Corporal Jones, although seeing as Olly Murphy's drought ended at Uttoxeter, it's made the race more a coin toss which would make KYDB the "value" in that regard. 

My trepidations surrounding Dark Motive are detailed in the preview, but anything outside of the front two could under or overperform quite dramatically since their profiles are are full of both patches and potential. I've just thrown together a quick table looking at the relative records of fillies and geldings for each month and it does suggest that this would probably be the best time of year to catch a filly.

I'm a if they've not been given a hard time & finished 4th in bumpers , over hurdles , novice chases & 2 year olds on the flat back them next time out , if double figure price then each way or just 2 places 1/4 odds a return for a place is a positive result.
Good luck & once again incredible in depth write up ?

Cheers for that CD

When I did my prospects list, the respective trainer form of the two principals was what tilted it in favour of Corporal Jones, although seeing as Olly Murphy's drought ended at Uttoxeter, it's made the race more a coin toss which would make KYDB the "value" in that regard. 

My trepidations surrounding Dark Motive are detailed in the preview, but anything outside of the front two could under or overperform quite dramatically since their profiles are are full of both patches and potential. I've just thrown together a quick table looking at the relative records of fillies and geldings for each month and it does suggest that this would probably be the best time of year to catch a filly.

It sure looks like Owners Group CORPORAL JONES will build on his 2nd place on debut 31 days ago however being around Evens favourite not much value in a race where any of his rivals are likely to show some kind of improvement so step forward DARK MOTIVE 12/1 ew sky bet .
She finished a distant 4th on her hurdles debut but given an easy time of it & could very well improve for both trainer & jockey who have a liking for Worcester .
J.Snowden has 4 winners with 2 placed from last 13 here .
G.Sheehan has ridden 5 winners & 2 placed from last 21 .
This Daughter of Motivator is in receipt of 7Lbs off the colts & fillies come into their own at the back end of the year .

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Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year's renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain. 
Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term - spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.
Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles. 
Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
Costing £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer. 
Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.
Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97 
Vision d'Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D'Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d'Etat's final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy - a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy's charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.  
Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term. 
Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner's enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year's Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan's win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola's overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break. 
Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 
Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.
Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly's hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths. 
TL;DR
Boulette - Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger's have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer's first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
Business Flight - Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
Corporal Jones - Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form. 
Gavin - Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
Keepyourdreamsbig - Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
Nazwa - Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
Vunipola - Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
Dark Motive - Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
Free Degrees - No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles. 
Sentilly - Even less in the way of worthwhile form.
Strong prospects
1. Corporal Jones
Reasonable prospects
2. Keepyourdreamsbig
Feasible prospects
3. Boulette
4. Nazwa
5. Vunipola
Moderate prospects
6. Dark Motive
Negligible prospects
7. Gavin
8. Free Degrees
9. Business Flight
10. Sentilly

The preview for tomorrow's contest now with bonus tl;dr supplement! If that isn't worth a like/re-tweet/whatever then I don't know what is!
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Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year's renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain. 
Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term - spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.
Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles. 
Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
Costing £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer. 
Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.
Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97 
Vision d'Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D'Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d'Etat's final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy - a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy's charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.  
Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term. 
Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner's enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year's Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan's win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola's overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break. 
Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 
Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.
Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly's hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths. 
TL;DR
Boulette - Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger's have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer's first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
Business Flight - Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
Corporal Jones - Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form. 
Gavin - Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
Keepyourdreamsbig - Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
Nazwa - Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
Vunipola - Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
Dark Motive - Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
Free Degrees - No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles. 
Sentilly - Even less in the way of worthwhile form.
Strong prospects
1. Corporal Jones
Reasonable prospects
2. Keepyourdreamsbig
Feasible prospects
3. Boulette
4. Nazwa
5. Vunipola
Moderate prospects
6. Dark Motive
Negligible prospects
7. Gavin
8. Free Degrees
9. Business Flight
10. Sentilly

The preview for tomorrow's contest now with bonus tl;dr supplement! If that isn't worth a like/re-tweet/whatever then I don't know what is!
https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1432738916323450884
Thank you
Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year's renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain. 
Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term - spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.
Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles. 
Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
Costing £23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer. 
Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.
Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97 
Vision d'Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D'Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d'Etat's final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy - a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy's charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.  
Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term. 
Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1½f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner's enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year's Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan's win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola's overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break. 
Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 
Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5½f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.
Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly's hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths. 
TL;DR
Boulette - Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger's have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer's first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
Business Flight - Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
Corporal Jones - Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form. 
Gavin - Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
Keepyourdreamsbig - Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
Nazwa - Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
Vunipola - Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
Dark Motive - Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
Free Degrees - No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles. 
Sentilly - Even less in the way of worthwhile form.
Strong prospects
1. Corporal Jones
Reasonable prospects
2. Keepyourdreamsbig
Feasible prospects
3. Boulette
4. Nazwa
5. Vunipola
Moderate prospects
6. Dark Motive
Negligible prospects
7. Gavin
8. Free Degrees
9. Business Flight
10. Sentilly

Preview review
Difficult to have gotten this one wrong, market being what it was. Nevertheless, first four in the correct order with the winner winning as one with "outstanding prospects" should means there is no real cause for reflection here. 
Race review
A four runner affair which only briefly threatened to deviate from expectations. The runners did not jump particularly well although the winner did tidy up his hurdling after halfway. Nothing can be drawn from the winning time as it was the slowest on the card against the standard, as well as being the slowest but one (ran on soft) of the previous renewals over the same trip. The runner-up failed to match his flat form and while those with experience improved on their debut efforts, it would only be by an arbitrary amount. Given that the field finished strung out in market order, there is no real reason to doubt the form as it stands.
Sacre Pierre made a winning racecourse debut at Uttoxeter five weeks earlier and this well-bred youngster set the standard on that performance. A solid, long odds-on favourite, Sacre Pierre initially tucked in behind the leaders before going to the front entering the wood side second time round. His early jumping lacked fluency as he was steady and close at the first two before clipping the fourth. However, he soon remembered his job at the halfway stage and was neat over the next three. Though he was briefly and narrowly headed leaving the back, Sacre Pierre soon found another gear to see off his challenger. He did wander quite erratically on the approach to the last, but this was much more likely due to a lapse in concentration than any temperament concerns as he was smooth around all of the other turns, and ran true along the run-in. Beyond his being in good shape and confirming the promise of his debut, not much more was learned of Sacre Pierre. The bare form is nothing special, but he can jump well and is not short of an engine so while there is nothing controversial about his remaining at 66/1 for the Triumph, it will be interesting to see how far he can go when stepping up in class. 109
Forever Forward has a higher flat rating than most recruits to the division and his running in the double green is bound to draw some interest. He is a rare juvenile for Peter Bowen and the first Souede/Munir runner for his new trainer, although some of his schooling had been conducted under the care of Henrietta Knight who won the Anniversary Hurdle with Stompin in 1995. Drifting from 15/8 to 11/4 during the day's trading, Forever Forward drifted further in the ring and was sent off as 4/1 second favourite. He attempted to dispute the lead in the early exchanges, but he gave his hurdles enough air to cost him ground and momentum at each flight and was relegated to third on leaving the wood side first time. Off the bridle on the approach to two out, he made heavy weather of making any inroads on the leader and would only take second on the run-in. The performance was a fair way off his flat form, but it was an outing marked by inexperience and the possible application of scissors and/or headgear may bring about enough improvement for him to be competitive in this sphere. 92
The Bravest was not unfancied on his Market Rasen hurdling bow at the beginning of the month, but poor hurdling let him down and he failed to justify the support. He was once again the subject of confidence and was sent off at 9/2 having been available at 10/1 in the ring at one point. Going straight into the lead, his poor hurdling threatened to re-emerge as he was very steady, big and slow at the first. However, Conor O'Farrell made his mount's mind up from there and The Bravest responded with much more fluent jumps over the next couple of flights. Foreshadowing the winner's antics at the last, The Bravest wandered around on the approach to the fourth and while he got over it well enough, this was sufficient to light him up for a while. He was not hurdling fluently from there and he would lose his lead going onto the wood side second time. The Bravest briefly regained an advantage on the long run between the last two, but was left behind once the winner found another gear and an untidy jump at the last saw him lose second shortly after. This was an improvement from his introduction at the start of the month, but he will need moderate company to be challenging for a win at this juncture and may be suited either by time or a generous handicap mark. 87
So Savvy made his first racecourse appearance with a midfield placing at Newcastle in June, but was unable to match that effort at Ripon on his only subsequent outing. He received some support at long odds during the day, but more than trebled in price in the ring and started the race at 66/1. Rather fractious at the start, he began the race in last place and would keep a firm grip of this position throughout. His hurdling left plenty to be desired as along with reaching at his flights, he also had a habit of stumbling on landing. So Savvy was still just about in touch leaving the back, but would be allowed to come home in his own time once the race had left him behind. 38

Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel.
If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. 
Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021
An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field. 
Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84 
Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006
Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude.
So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64
Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999
Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1. 
The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79
Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020
Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury  and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre.
Oustanding prospects
1. Sacre Pierre
Reasonable prospects
2. Forever Forward
Feasible prospects
3. The Bravest
Moderate prospects
4. So Savvy
 

First race meeting I ever went to was Cartmel in August 1993. 

At the time, my grandparents thought that my racing thing was just another fleeting obsession so they didn't mind humouring me by caving into my persistent requests to be taken there. Turned out it completely cemented my love for the sport. Probably didn't help that I got the 7/1 winner in the first...

There really is something very special about the course and while I am more of a Hexham man these days, I would highly recommend a visit to Cartmel if ever one gets the opportunity. Especially if you have young ones you want to get into the sport.

Excellent description of Cartmel.

Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel.
If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. 
Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021
An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field. 
Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84 
Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006
Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude.
So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64
Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999
Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1. 
The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79
Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020
Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury  and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre.
Oustanding prospects
1. Sacre Pierre
Reasonable prospects
2. Forever Forward
Feasible prospects
3. The Bravest
Moderate prospects
4. So Savvy
 

Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel.
If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. 
Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021
An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field. 
Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84 
Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006
Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude.
So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64
Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999
Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1. 
The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79
Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020
Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury  and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre.
Oustanding prospects
1. Sacre Pierre
Reasonable prospects
2. Forever Forward
Feasible prospects
3. The Bravest
Moderate prospects
4. So Savvy
 

Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel.
If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. 
Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104
On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021
An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field. 
Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84 
Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006
Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude.
So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64
Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999
Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1. 
The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79
Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020
Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury  and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre.
Oustanding prospects
1. Sacre Pierre
Reasonable prospects
2. Forever Forward
Feasible prospects
3. The Bravest
Moderate prospects
4. So Savvy