StephenR91

I now make it 40 tries across 25 Super League games scored by wingers this year, so far. Looking back at top scorers for their respective clubs, 11/14 (two teams had two players tied) last year were wingers, 11/12 in 2023 and 10/12 in 2022. It’s low hanging fruit but it’s worth having a dabble into, I feel. It’s about working out what kind of games wingers score in now, whether there are any trends in these games (e.g scoring against weaker teams compared to the top three or four teams against each other). Not sure on this evening, Matty Ashton is a decent bet, I feel. Hull and Wakefield is a tough one, though.

Swift at EVS for me this evening. Part of a small sample I’m testing. 39 tries scored by wingers across 24 games so far.

Hamilton Academical v Falkirk Falkirk & Over 1.5 Goals 1.77/1

Had Ryan Hall, Tristan Sailor and Lachlan Lam anytime at 22.2/1. Thought Sailor might get one late on against a tiring Cas side. Featherstone -18 and Leigh -10.5 at 2.3/1 today.

Think I may keep a close eye on this for a couple of weeks after the beginning to this season. Wakefield, Leigh and Cas all surprising and even in the Championship, Widnes going over to Toulouse and winning.

Wimborne Town v Merthyr Town - Over 2.5 Goals Nine of Wimborne's fourteen home games have seen O2.5, with an average of 2.78 goals in those games at the New Cuthbury and Merthyr, the league leaders have had 10/14 on the road that have seen three or more goals. It's landed in 19/28 (67.85%) of games involving the two at home and away and it was given a probability of 63% by Betfair at odds of 4/7. With the reverse fixture seeing a resounding 6-0 win for Merthyr, Merthyr's games involving an average of 3.66 goals and Wimborne keeping one clean sheet in the last eleven league games, I can't wait for a dull 0-0 draw to ruin this bet. Dover Athletic v Whitehawk - Over 1.5 Goals Dover's home games has seen 51 goals scored, an average of 3.64 per game and Whitehawk's away games seeing 56 goals, an average of 3.73, whilst landing in 11/14 Dover home and in 14/15 Whitehawk games on the road, one Whitehawk clean sheet away all season and only two at home for Dover all season, I can't see how there won't be two goals in this. 0.89/1 Double A change of approach, picking teams to win has become tough and I'm struggling to pick winners this season so I'm dabbling with small stakes and seemingly low odds with goals between now and the end of the season to see whether there's something in it.

Got a £2 free bet from SkyBet so I’ve gone for the following: Hull Kingston Rovers -18 vs Castleford Tigers KR won 8 home games by more than 18 points in 2024, whereas Cas lost 8/14 away by more than that margin and they really stunk out Odsal on Sunday in the cup against Bradford. Warrington Wolves -12 v Huddersfield Giants Warrington won 9/14 at home by more than 12 last year, Huddersfield only lost 5 away by more than that margin last year but did have 8 games last season where they conceded 30+.

Having looked at how strong Leeds’ 21 man squad is for their game against Wests Warriors, who are a team largely of Australians and Kiwis living in London, I may have a play on that depending on the handicap. Their record win, 102-0 in 1913 against Coventry, may well fall if the majority of their big names play.

Peterhead and Halifax Town - 2.4/1 --------------- York City v Dagenham & Redbridge - O1.5, Birmingham City v Rotherham United O1.5, Bowers & Pitsea v Dartford O2.5 - 2.94/1

Middlesbrough v Cardiff City - 4/7 East Fife v Forfar Athletic - 4/5

Crewe Alex and Wycombe for me.

Blackburn Rovers v Hull City Leyton Orient v Cambridge United

Queen of the South vs Annan Athletic QOTS have the joint best home record in the league W6 D1 L1, have scored the second most goals at home and only conceded 9 at home. Annan have the second worst away record W2 D0 L7 and have conceded an eye watering 22 on the road this season.

AFC Wimbledon v Swindon Town Southend United v Ebbsfleet United.

Forest Green Rovers vs Aldershot Town - National League Pretty obvious one, this. Forest Green are 3rd, unbeaten at home (W7 D2), have conceded the least at home in the division and haven't lost a league game since 24th September. The Shots, however, are probably a change of vowel away from a truer nickname. One win away from home, only three teams have conceded more than them this season, only four have conceded more away and are one win in eight in the league. East Fife vs Spartans - Scottish League Two It might be 3rd vs 5th in Scotland's fourth tier but odds against on the home side seems like a Christmas gift, to me. The Methil side are excellent at home, their record is W6 D1 L1, they've scored the most goals at home and only Bonnyrigg Rose have conceded fewer on their own patch. The Spartans on the flip side have won once on the road (W1 D3 L3) and only the nation's bottom side, Forfar Athletic, have scored fewer on their travels. Cheshunt vs Dover Athletic - Isthmian Premier The home side are sat fourth from bottom in the Isthmian Prem, have the joint worst home record in the league (W2 D2 L6) and their only wins were against the bottom two, Bowers & Pitsea and Bognor Regis, who are seven and eight points from safety respectively. Dover on the other hand are actually having a decent season after a few turbulent years. Relegation seems to have been good for them and they are unbeaten on the road (W7 D3), the league's top scorers away from home and have conceded the fewest on the road.

On paper at least it could well be a bad weekend for the bookmakers. There are quite a few teams you would really fancy like Arsenal, Liverpool, Leeds, Sheffield United, Wrexham etc. I've gone for: Preston North End v Leeds United One defeat in six for Leeds, whereas Preston are one win in ten. Wrexham v Cambridge United Pretty self explanatory, really. Wrexham are W9 D1 L0 at home, Cambridge are W1 D1 L7 away from home, its 2nd v 22nd, Wrexham have won 4 out of their last 5 and Cambridge have won one in that time. Queen of the South v Stenhousemuir Long shot. It might be 7th v 1st but looking at it, I fancy the fantastically named Doonhammers. The home sides problems that means they're lying in 7th is simple, their away form. They're W0 D2 L6 away but their home form is only bettered by Stenhousemuir (1st) and Arbroath (3rd). At home, Queen of the South are W5 D1 L1. Looking at Stenny, they're top but they're the complete opposite to Queens, they're great at home (W6 D1 L1), whereas away only Annan (8th), Dumbarton (10th) and the aforementioned Queens are worse than them. Stenny's away record of W2 D2 L4 is enough for me to have a little punt on the home side.

Crystal Palace v Manchester City I like the price, firstly (8/15). Secondly, Palace have won once at home from seven and in doing so have only scored four, the fewest goals scored at home in the league. Yes, City's away form is poor and I know Pep has done his usual woe is me act in the press conference but I just fancy a City win. Stenhousemuir v Dumbarton Bit wary of this because the odds don't seem to make sense to me. Stenhousemuir are top, Dumbarton are bottom with a points deduction but even so, I don't get it. Stenny's home form is the best in the division with W5 D1 L1 and they've the joint highest scorers at home (13) and Dumbarton's away record reads W1 D4 L2 with only Annan having conceded more on the road than them.

The milkybars are on me. Had that, York City and Peterborough/Over 1.5 Goals in singles. 3/3 and a celebratory pint to sign off.

Fraserburgh v Annan Athletic Scottish Cup Third Round 16/4 (Boyles) I know there are two leagues between these two but I think there’s value backing The Broch on the nose or double chance and/or Win or Draw this afternoon. Annan’s away form is terrible. They’ve won one of seven away from home, scoring five and conceding twenty-one. The Broch’s home record is won four, drew two and lost one and with such a long journey ahead of them, I fancy the home side to pull off a shock.

Tamworth vs Ebbsfleet United - 4/5 Chatham Town v Dover Athletic - 5/4 Both singles.

Had Dover Athletic at 5/4 to win at Chatham Town. Chatham have won 1/6 home league games and Dover have won 5/6 league away games, scoring 16 in those 6 games.

Had the following: Bournemouth @ 9/2 - Won Sunderland @ 11/10 - Lost I swerved the cup, too much uncertainty with the removal of replays and just madness of the cup.

Liverpool (1) Bayer Leverkusen (1) 20pts double

Leicester v Birmingham (1) 1.33 Portsmouth v Shrewsbury (1) 1.36 £10 double.

Spurs single £20