The Equaliser

bamcalyb 12.48.france 

ma mome 2.33 France 

Everyone in bed I’ll put it up 🐎

It looks worth pursuing with a 40-point LSP.  🙂

Musselburgh 8:05
A shining  moon
win
trailblazer
each way
draw data selections the favourites may be upstaged here
*****************************
trailblazer ran a blinder second at 8/1
Sea the clouds 5/4
a taking winner at Worcester despite the jockey dropping his whip. Looked like he’d struggle as the other two horses were forging on. The jockey steadied his horse and gradually got on top and with the persuader would likely have won by several more lengths. It’s the first bet I’ve described as a “rock solid” selection and as close to a maximum that I’ve given.
Sweetest Rose
ran on and won with ease at 8/1
tobetsu
High confidently ridden and thread way through the field to win well.
* hopefully I can join the lucky fifteen crew very soon. 
 

4.40 Worc Stumps Or slips 3/1
6.45 Bell Shoebox King 11/4
7.15 Bell Erato 6/1
7.55 Worc Judge Earle 7/2
1 x 0.10 w L15 = 104.50+ 0.50 w Acca poss 236.25 = 340.65 for a 2 pts stake

🏆  Wife's Daily Nap just won, might make top 10 in table, not bad for a lady amateur 👍 
 

bellwestown 5:35
 
Even though I’m not having great day, the draw data at Bellewstown is proving quite accurate.
Trying it here  using the five year average.
works out at 8:2 
the top weight that it throws up is a non runner hence three runners come into contention 
Sweetest rose 
win
sweetest rose drops out of listed company and makes handicap debut here under Colin Keane having previously won a maiden going to be very hard to assess for handicap.
monnow valley 
each way 
pub talk second top weight 
Also drawn alongside the pair and the absent top weight is the bottom weight 
Monnow valley hugeprice and out of the weights 
I recommend a combination forecast here
an aspect of the physics called traverse law comes into play here between the top and bottom weight and is increased as they are drawn together.
monnow valley has placed twice and the handicapper has kept a strong hold of his rating and us well worth an each way here 

Ripon 4:30
tobetsu
win
won well on final run for yard
 
and eye catching debut
bungley
each way
 

I don't put much effort into this one, it's only 1 meeting a day and the maximum bet is £20. I just include the data which is available on oddschecker.
I am building up data as I go along, currently there are 224 races in my data.
Other stats I have from this data are :-
Handicaps, +5, non-handicaps -8
Less than 8 runners +15
Class 6 +7
Age 4+ +23
Favourite odds < 3/1 +19
2nd favourite last time not 1st or 2nd +8
2nd favourite odds > 5/1 +17
Overround > 115 + 29 (this one doesn't appear very logical)
 

Very interesting Michael.  The race favourite was a 9/1 winner LTO so I wonder if the stats may be showing that if the new race favourite was not favourite and it won LTO and that this may improve the winning strike rate.  Also, your selection is an unraced 2 y.o.  The trainer has a 74% RTF so good luck   

Lost
-£338 aug
-£378 10/07/23

4.50 Newbury nopoli 33/1 £10 e/w bet365

Rip 215  Bringbackthememories. 8/1
£10 Ew.            Lost. 7th.

Newbury 4.50
GENTLE WHINNY 25/1
£10 EW BET365 4 places

Only one winner -£4 all my other lucky 15 did well had great day everything I put on here goes wrong 😂
day 37 -£72

Day 38 -£72

Some small stakes interest this afternoon.......good luck all 🤞
New 2.00       Apeeling  33/1 EW     b365                   Looking for Queen  16/1 EW       betfair                 Toosha  66/1 EW       b365 
Ripon 2.15     Tele red  5/1      (b365 boost)             Unplugged  11/2                               King Triton   7/1 EW          
New 2.30       This time maybe  13/2 EW               American tale  10/1 EW      (b365 boost)               Mitwaa  16/1 EW     2nd              b365        4 places
New 3.05       Captain Cuddles  3/1                        Overnight oats  12/1 EW    b365             Change sings  20/1 EW   3rd   22/1     b365             4 places
Ripon 3.25     Chumbaa  7/2      WON  5/1                              Reflexion Faite  11/2
Ripon 4.00     Origintrail  4/1                                     Impeller   15/2 EW      3rd       
Ripon 4.30     Tobetso   4/1  WON  5/1   betfair         Cosmas Raj  7/2                    Montarajel  10/1 EW  ( b365 extra 5th place)        5TH   12/1     
 
      2 WINS 🏆 🏆  and  4 EW places .......soooo nice little profit today, all helps toward my blonde racing advisors upcoming 62nd Birthday  👍   

Not much going on today so I'll put one up from a successful system I've been using
Ripon 2.50
SOUTH SHORE 7/4
Boylesports money back if 2nd to SP favourite
I back the 2nd favourite when the favourite won last time out
In the last 3 months this is showing a 40 points level stakes profit

sheradann 12.48 Dieppe .France 

I’m still laughing about how Irish racing tolerate Charlie Byrnes after yesterday’s fiasco at Downpatrick. You can call it a jolly old wheeze if you wish but yet again under the auspices of a good touch a horse has come to harm.
The game will be up for horse racing in Ireland  before long because animal rights will have a case to put it all to bed.
Not to say England is much better.
newbury 2pm
the Irish raider has a look of class rated 96, but looking for queen ridden by Oisin Murphy may be able to at least give her something to think about.
A good fourth on debut her dam and sister both won nto and my draw data calculated stall 7 as the winning stall with the favourite alongside in stall 9 a boat trip over a windy Irish Sea is not the ideal prep for an odds on horse who under James Doyle should hold way too much here having  been beaten only by Navassa Ireland last time.  ( if I recall correctly they both raced alone far side so with a tow from a top horse, the outliers may all been stands side and win or lose here I would not back it with fake money) So Murphy has the draw data on his side and the slipstream effect of a good tow and a birthright of the horse to uphold here.
LOOKING FOR QUEEN
Each way 

It looked like it could be an exciting start with Homer Stokes winning at 16/1 but alas, that was it for the day
Still a profit of £7.20 but it's been a long time since the last big one
Total Out £1,028.50
Total In £2,079.66
Profit £1,051.16

1.20 Cart Pittsburg 4/1
2.35 Sou Blue Bell Grove 4/1
2.55 Cart Coficionado 10/1
5.32 SOu Fox Flame 4/1
1 x 0.10 w L15 = 302.30 and 1 x 0.25 ew acca = 418.17 = 720.47 for a 2 pts stake

3.10 Sou Azucena 8/1
3.40 Eps Citizen General 5/1
4.35 Chep Star Map 14/1
4.50 Eps English Spirit 13/2
1 x 0.10 w L15 = 1047.10 + 1 x 0.25 ew acca = 1699.74 = 2746.84 for a 2 pts stake

Have posted up another 2 pts w L15 and ew acca on the L15 daily (looks like the favourites are having a good time today)
4.05 Cart You Say It's Over 1 pt win at 9.0 (BH)
5.10 Chp Stalingrad 1 pt win at 8/1 (BL3)
8 points staked today
Don't think I will have time or races for another L15 which is a pity, they are so much fun