philipwalsh19

Here are my pics for the Arnold Palmer Invitational And here's my player rating model results for the event

36% profit in the end.

Most bookies are going 5/6 for over/under 3.5 cards. Sporting Index have set the line at 3.3-3.6. I'm with the unders for this tournament. International and elite club games in the last year or two are averaging at around 1.8 expected cards across a 15 game period and only one 6 Nations ever has gone over 3 reds (2021...when there was 5).

Scottie is back but at 9/2 I'd rather look elsewhere and hope that he's a little rusty.

Here are my picks I've gone for a few Top 20 and Top 30 angles to try to smooth out the variance a bit.

Staking plan: 1pt e/w on each-ways, 1pt each on top 20/30s

Xander win, Henley place and Henley top 20 all came in. Based on my staking plan (1pt e/w and 3pts per Top X bet) that's a tidy 152% profit (35pts profit on an outlay of 23pts)

Each-way (10 places) Xander Schauffele @ 15/1 (8 places. Boosted from 12/1 w/ Bet365) Aaron Rai @ 55/1 Akshay Bhatia @ 90/1 Si Woo Kim @ 90/1 Russell Henley @ 110/1 (boosted from 100/1 w/ Ladbrokes) Corey Conners @ 66/1 Brian Harman @ 60/1 Top 20 Tom Hoge @ 11/2 Russell Henley @ 4/1 Top 30 Lucas Glover @ 7/2

Aberg wins place money and both Rai and Theegala net Top 10 / Top 20 money comfortably. 75% profit overall this week.

Not many significant outliers (ratings vs odds) in the top 10 or so of the betting.So I'm going to back Aberg each-way and sprinkle some place finish bets on a few who might out-run their odds.

This was a bit of a sweat (only 2 cards in the first 86 mins) but the late flurry of cards was very welcome indeed. Good shout mate.

Very late posting this week, but here's how the betting odds vs player rating looks for this. I went for these four each-way Ludvig Aberg @ 15/1 (Round 2: T24) Russell Henley @ 30/1 (Round 2: T66) Si Woo Kim @ 55/1 (Round 2: T24) Collin Morikawa @ 12/1 (Round 2: T2) ..and these for top 20 finish Ben Griffin (Round 2: T59) Max Homa (Round 2: T59) Si Woo Kim (Round 2: T24) Chris Kirk (Round 2: T59) Tom Hoge (Round 2: 9th)

Slovenia drew their first game 1-1 with Denmark, but I do like this angle. To avoid the lottery of 3rd place qualification this is one you've got to win. Plus, as you say, the ref isn't shy of a card. This season he averaged 5.5 yellows a game in the CL and 5.68 overall. I went for a buy @ 43 at Sporting Index. Also, I see the Serb gaffer put his foot in it a few months back. Although, among the Balkan states, they don't have any major beef I'm hoping the tension sees things spilling over a bit. https://www.politico.eu/article/serbias-vucic-apologizes-to-slovenia-for-insult-to-entire-nation/

When I looked at this a few days before the tournament kick-off the "Yellow Cards" tournament total jumped out to me. By then the spread line had reduced further (to Sell 187 - Buy 197) but for me there still looked to be value on the sell side. Euro 2020- 151 yellows across 51 games (2.96 per game)- 6 red cardsWC 2022- 214 across 64 games (3.34 per game)- 4 red cardsIf this Euros matched the rate of the last WC, then we'd see 170 yellows. So far the rate is 2.57 (...albeit the sample size of 7 completed games is tiny) equating to a total of 131 yellows, but I think the line was too high for 2 reasons - An overreaction to news that UEFA were instructing refs to flash the cards if anyone other than the two captains spoke to them too "enthusiastically" about a decision - An underreaction to the indication from UEFA that there won't be monstruous amounts of injury time like in the earlier WC 2022 games

UPDATE: Overall, based on the staking plan above, the profit was 15.25pts on a 17pts outlay — which equates to a return on investment of 189%.Disappointed that 36 hole leader (Aberg) didn't net any place money, but I'm sure he'll make money for us down the line.

A bit late in submitting my pre-tournament picks Each-way Xander Schauffele @ 9/1 (10 places) — 3pt Ludvig Aberg @ 20/1 (10 places) * with Bet365 25% boost * — 2pt Hideki Matsuyama @ 40/1 (8 places) — 2pt Russell Henley @ 60/1 (10 places) — 1pt Top 20 Corey Conners @ 11/4 Si Woo Kim @ 10/3 Aaron Rai @ 5/1 Top 30 Alex Noren @ 9/5 Brian Harman @ 9/5 Victor Perez @ 3/1 Lucas Glover @ 13/5 Tom Hoge @ 13/5 Sung Kang @ 20/1 Staking plan: For the purposes of tracking whether these tips are profitable I’ll suggest a simple staking plan of 1pt for each “top X” bet. That’s a total of 17pts (8pts on e/w, 9 pts on top 20/30). Let’s see how it pans out…

24% RoI this week, after two losing weeks back-to-back Pre-Event --------- Ludvig Aberg @ 20/1 - Place Win (tied for 5th) Matsuyama @ 33/1 - Place Win (tied for 8th) Si Woo Kim @ 40/1 - Loss (tied for 15th) Ben An @ 59/1 - Loss (tied for 22nd) Harman @ 60/1 - Loss (tied for 33rd) Scheffler first round leader at 10/1 - Loss (Just one stroke short!) In-play ------- Scheffler outright @ 15/8 - Win

Went for these each-way. Ludvig Aberg @ 20/1 Si Woo Kim @ 40/1 Ben An @ 59/1 Matsuyama @ 33/1 Harman @ 60/1 And Scheffler first round leader at 10/1

Fleetwood T5 and Rai T9 still in the mix for place money. Rai typically doesn't excel on the final day unfortunately.

I'm a bit late to this, but these were my pre-tournament picks. All each-way (6 places). Fleetwood @ 14/1 Rai @ 35/1 Bhatia @ 55/1

My picks this week By my numbers Scheffler is well clear of the pack, he's ranked #1 on 6 of the 16 key metrics that I've focused on for this event. ...but I can't justify backing him at 3/1. Morikawa has very strong numbers in all those key areas (bar putting: where he's 121st across the last 2 seasons in strokes gained putting) and he's as well placed as anyone to challenge him, especially coming off a strong showing (tied for 4th) at the PGA Championship. But my biggest stake bet this week will be on Max Homa - who is comparable to Morikawa with his irons and Stokes Gained in general...but both putts & scrambles better - at a bigger price. It's a gamble, as his accuracy off the tee would need some improving this week and that's a tricky part of this course.