Felipe Madeira
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Posts posted by Felipe Madeira
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Cruzeiro vs Atlético-MG
Atlético-MG 0.0 HA (DNB)
1 unit
Min odd: 1.75
Sep 16Cruzeiro should spare some starters for the Libertadores game against Boca Juniors. In addition the team had a very tiring game for the Brazil Cup.
Atletico Mineiro has improved his performance on the pitch and is resting all week for this important game that can put the team in the top four.
Status: Void
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Goias vs Atletico-GO
Over 2.25
Odd: 1.90This game will be among the two best second division attacks. Both teams need victory to consolidate in the top four.
I believe in a great game with at least 3 goals.
Status: Won
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Criciuma vs Guarani
Over 2 goals
1 unit
Min odd @ 1.80
Aug 28 -
5 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
Why are Flamengo 2.78?
I believe it`s because Santos are usually strong at home and dismissed the coach which can give a new mood to the players.
But I like Flamengo DNB.
- Mindfulness and Sir Puntalot
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2 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
Based on this I will take Palmeiras -0.25 AH @ 1.73 Marathonbet
I like the extra cover as they've not been the most reliable team so far.
I took -0,25 AH @1.87 188bet, but now is about 1.66.
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Fluminense has four suspended players.
The odd of Palmeiras -0,5 has great value.
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On 16/07/2018 at 11:47 AM, Mindfulness said:
Brazil Serie A returns this week. Not sure how useful ELO ratings will be for the opening matches after the long pause but I have posted them anyway.
@Felipe Madeira Transfers have been ongoing in Brazil during the world cup break. Do you see any team in the division markedly stronger or weaker through transfer activity during this period? Is there anything you think we should take note of?
No team has strengthened very well, but two teams have lost important players: Corinthians and Atlético Mineiro. We will keep an eye out.
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Next Friday Goias will face Criciuma and have a great opportunity to get even closer to the top four. For this game will have the returns of Lucão, Giovanni and Gilberto. Criciuma will have the embezzlements of Marlon and João Paulo. With a string of good results and good football, I believe Goias will win this game. I found Goias -0.5 to 1.85.
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Round 13:
CSA vs Coritiba
CSA -0,25 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1,90
June 29CSA got a good tie away from home and could even have won if it wasn`t for the lost penalty. CSA will have a direct confrontation in this game and have everything to consolidate in the first four.
Coritiba tied at home in the final round in a game that needed a lot of victory. The team has played badly outside the home and for this game will have the embezzlement of one of their best players (Yan Sasse).
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Round 12:
Atletico Mineiro vs Ceara
Atletico Mineiro -1,25 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1.80
June 13Atletico Mineiro is excited after a good victory against Fluminense. Now Atletico will face one of the worst teams in the league, Atletico must get a good victory before the stoppage for the World Cup.
Ceará despite having achieved a draw before the Palmeiras shouldn`t get a good result here. The team is weak and playing away from home against Atlético Mineiro and with the crowded stadium shouldn`t resist.
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Flamengo will have the embezzlement of one of their main players (Paquetá), but will also have Diego's return. As Flamengo will face one of the worst teams in the league, we have a good chance of success here.
Paraná have won their two home matches but will face one of the favorites in the first division title. In addition, the Maracanã will be crowded with the fans of Flamengo, the pressure will be very strong.
Flamengo -1,25 @2.00
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2 hours ago, Bagzi said:
I did this bet too.
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6 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
What do you guys think of Palmeiras @ 1.80 on Sunday?
Apparently both their first choice defensive mids are unavailable.
I already bet Palmeiras -0,5 HA, despite the embezzlement, Palmeiras is a very strong team and has good players to replace.
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On 05/06/2018 at 10:47 AM, Mindfulness said:
Cruzeiro V Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama +1.25 AH @ 1.847 Matchbook
It never rains but it pours for Vasco da Gama as head coach Ze Ricardo has quit after the home defeat to Botafogo. There's been somewhat of a toxic atmosphere at the club recently with issues on and off the field. Assistant manager Valdir Bigode will take charge of first team affairs for the trip to Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro themselves are flying high at the minute, 2nd in the table with 3 league wins on the bounce. I guess most punters would think it completely insane to back Vasco here but the metrics and ELO ratings show that Cruzeiro are only marginally ahead of Vasco in some areas of performance and even behind in others.
Cruzeiro are hard to beat with a strong defence but their attack is not that great with only 6 goals scored from 9 games and to compound matters they have some absences in the forward lines for the match with Vasco.
In normal circumstances the asian line for Vasco da Gama would be too generous here. After factoring in the resignation of the manager and recent issues I still think it's too big a price when considering the attributes of Cruzeiro. I'm also of the opinion that X @ 4.45 may hold some added value here aswell.
Congratulations brow.
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19 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:
@Felipe Madeira Is there any evidence of fixed matches in Brazil? It's often a myth in my opinion.
I hope not, but this game was very suspect, drastic chances on odds, basic failures of goalkeeper.
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On 05/06/2018 at 12:27 PM, Felipe Madeira said:
Round 9:
CSA vs Guarani
CSA -0,5 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1,90
June 05CSA has recovered from the home defeat with a good away win. For this game will have the embezzlements of Ferrugem and Yuri, but will have the returns of Niltinho and Edinho. Playing at home with the support of your fans has good chances of victory.
Guarani have several embezzles for this game, among them his main striker Anselmo Ramon. In addition, the team makes a very weak campaign away from home, managed only a draw. This odd is too high, let's take advantage of it before it slows down.
Very strange game. Fixed???
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2 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
Appreciate the feedback and I bow to your greater knowledge but I will stick with the selection as I have to find out whether or not the AH analysis I'm currently using is profitable over a long run of bets.
Sure, you`re right. I will not bet because the -1 HA is too low, so I´ll cheer for you.
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Round 9:
CSA vs Guarani
CSA -0,5 HA
1 unit
Min odd 1,90
June 05CSA has recovered from the home defeat with a good away win. For this game will have the embezzlements of Ferrugem and Yuri, but will have the returns of Niltinho and Edinho. Playing at home with the support of your fans has good chances of victory.
Guarani have several embezzles for this game, among them his main striker Anselmo Ramon. In addition, the team makes a very weak campaign away from home, managed only a draw. This odd is too high, let's take advantage of it before it slows down.
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1 hour ago, Mindfulness said:
Cruzeiro V Vasco da Gama
Vasco da Gama +1.25 AH @ 1.847 Matchbook
It never rains but it pours for Vasco da Gama as head coach Ze Ricardo has quit after the home defeat to Botafogo. There's been somewhat of a toxic atmosphere at the club recently with issues on and off the field. Assistant manager Valdir Bigode will take charge of first team affairs for the trip to Cruzeiro.
Cruzeiro themselves are flying high at the minute, 2nd in the table with 3 league wins on the bounce. I guess most punters would think it completely insane to back Vasco here but the metrics and ELO ratings show that Cruzeiro are only marginally ahead of Vasco in some areas of performance and even behind in others.
Cruzeiro are hard to beat with a strong defence but their attack is not that great with only 6 goals scored from 9 games and to compound matters they have some absences in the forward lines for the match with Vasco.
In normal circumstances the asian line for Vasco da Gama would be too generous here. After factoring in the resignation of the manager and recent issues I still think it's too big a price when considering the attributes of Cruzeiro. I'm also of the opinion that X @ 4.45 may hold some added value here aswell.
I believe Cruzeiro will win this game by at least two goals. Vasco is much inferior and Cruzeiro will have return of important players, like Robinho.
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3 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
Vitoria V Chapecoense
Total Goals: Over 2.5 @ 2.11 Marathonbet
I do not really understand why over 2.5 is odds against here as we have the divisions two worst defences going head to head in this match. They're also the divisions 2nd and 7th strongest attacks respectively while both teams have a number of specific weaknesses that the other can exploit. The average goals per game of both teams combined is 3.0.
Over 2.5 at odds against seems to be the play considering the circumstances.
Very good pick and odd, I bet over 2.25 @1.86
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For next round I like Sport -0,5, min odd 1,90.
Sport will have in this game the return of at least four players who couldn`t face Internacional due to contract. In addition, will play in his stadium where Sport is very strong and has made good matches.
Atletico Paranaense hasn`t been playing well and has a negative sequence of results. His coach is claiming that his players are physically frayed, another factor that can hurt the team in this game.
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On 02/06/2018 at 6:58 AM, Mindfulness said:
What do you think of betting X in America MG and Palmeiras games?
Sorry, I saw your message just today. I bet on América MG -0,25.
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This round is very difficult to find value.
Brazil Serie A Predictions 2018
in Brazilian Football Predictions
Posted
Sorry for not answer, Paraná is the worst team in the league, probably will lose the most of games.