black rabbit

AW selection
Southwell 3.40
WONDERFUL EAGLE

Had two 0.10 L15's at Bath = 3 points
2.50 Bath Gabriae 1 pt win at 6.26
4.30 Bathe Moon Spirit 1 pt win at 5.2
= 5 points staked today
Can't get 11/2 for an ew bet on the Naps for my most fancied selections so I'll leave it for today

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Yesterday Charyn won (4th top rated in a row) at 3.35 + Arabian Crown at 5/6 + 4 losers
Current loss 0.74 points
Todays top rated is BROKEN SPEAR. It achieved its top rating over todays course and dstance and on todays going.  I have it 11 lengths clear of the favourite so it looks excellent value at 4/1. BSP.
Lots of action today, these are top rated overall and on the going
Leicester 2.05 LOOK BACK SMILING 8/1 - BSP
Leicester 3.12 RECON MISSION 5/1 - BSP
Leicester 4.55 EY UP ITS JAZZ 14/5 - LADBROKES
Haydock 2.10 COLD STARE 11/2 - BET MGM EW (4 places)
Haydock 3.20 THE SMILING WOLF 11/4 - BSP
Haydock 3.53 SHEMOZZLE 8/15 - BSP
Haydock 5.00 AMANCIO 5/2 - BSP
Doncaster 5.40 ISLE OF DREAMS 13/1 - LADBROKES
Ripon 6.20 LEGENDARY DAY 16/1 - LADBROKES 

Result
Downpatrick 17:50 Surf Club....5th (EvensF)
Todays Profit =   -10 pts
Current Years Profit 2024 =  +  82.11 pts 
 
(Years Profit 2023 = - 382.60 pts.)
(Years Profit 2022 = - 239.42 pts.) 
(Years Profit 2021 = - 197.65 pts.) 
(Years Profit 2020 = +17.50 pts.) 
(Years Profit 2019 = + 287.87 pts.)
(Years Profit 2018 = + 90.52 pts.)
(Years Profit 2017 = - 73.44 pts.)
(Years Profit 2016 = + 437.86 pts.)
(Years Profit 2015 = + 18.52 pts.)
(Years Loss 2014 = - 30.20 pts.) 
(Years Loss 2013 = - 105.06 pts.)
(Years Profit 2012 = +127.65 pts.)
(Years Loss 2011 = - 13.82 pts.)   
(Years Profit 2010 = +166.01 pts.) 
Bank = + 2079.02 pts. 
Profit = + 1979.02 pts.
Current Losing Run = 2

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

bangers and cash 3.35 ew. 

AW selection
Wolverhampton 6.30
SERENITY DREAM 

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

A formula might be tricky given the variables (difference in price, how many extra places you're getting, any difference in the place odds fraction, how many runners there are etc.). My gut feel is that only losing a point on the price for 2 extra places isn't a bad deal (though you don't mention what the fractions were for the place elements). I remember reading an article on the subject with regard to extra places in golf outright markets and it concluded that the value was usually in taking the extra places even if the drop in price seemed steep. Admittedly we're talking bigger prices and fields there but I suppose the point is that the instinctive reaction to reject a bet because the price drop is too big might not be correct. Clarkey can probably give a more informed view based on his data stockpile! 

B/Fwd - 70.65 L15's; RC P/L -96.55 (incl L15's)
Had 3 x 0.10 L15's on the Daily = 4.50 pts staked for 12 selections
3.35 San Amirite 1 pt ew at 5/1 7 places*
= 6.50 stakes
* Has anyone got a formula for working out where the value lies in taking Sky bets extra places e.g. I took 5/1 ew for 7 places whereas I could have taken 6/1 with Bet365 for 5 places.  Hopefully, Michael @MCLARKE and/or some other mathematical mastermind can come up with an easy-to-use method for me   

1.10 navan - distillate 28/1 ew 

Was 33p a pint in grays about 77-78

I had to pay over £8 for a pint of Stella Lager and a small bottle of still water in a Wetherspoons up in London recently.  My favourite beer was Fullers ESB when it was managed properly by bar staff.  No one seems to manage beer properly any more in pubs. It puts me off buying the stuff

I worked for Whitbreads in the late 70s, in the canteen you were allowed 2 free pints a day, even the lorry drivers !
The brewery was in the centre of Sheffield, you could smell it from miles away

Last chance saloon wheel fell off on lucky 15 thread 

Good Morning.
A very mixed bag on the punting front. "Level" on the week (enjoyed "What A Johnny"). I've been very busy with work so I post when I can. Today's hugely speculative bet is in the 5.20 at Sandown Park. "Sa Majeste". Good Luck to you all! Justin. 🏇.

5.15 Ripon-Helter Skelter 
Think owners "The Horse Watchers" have a nicely handicapped horse on their hands
 
 
11-4 with Bet 365

Did it have a glass bottom so you could make sure no-one slipped the King's shilling into your drink? 

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂

Rainbow Fire                                                      2 45 Hay/      1/40th of a pt ew         16/1          - 3rd
An Brandan Frasa                                             1 50 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
Rapper                                                                3 35 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          40/1
Will Carver                                                          5 20 San/      1/40th of a pt ew          22/1
 
 
 
 
 
P/L  + 177 Pts

Oh yes!

annual invictus 20/1 or rapper 25/1 for the win