Timmy1515
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Posts posted by Timmy1515
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here is some data
I can see what leagues I do well in and ones that need work. I'm doing better at 1x2 rather then double chance.
I'll be back over the weekend to update my process
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Single
#1
IK Frej Täby vs Östers IF
Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 15:00
Match winner • Östers IF
Odds: 2.25
Stake: 10
Single
#2
Degerfors IF vs IFK Värnamo
Superettan / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 17:00
Match winner • Degerfors IF
Odds: 1.86
Stake: 10
Single
#3
Gefle IF vs Helsingborgs IF
Superettan / 5th Jun 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Helsingborgs IF
Odds: 1.76
Stake: 10
Single
#4
Atlanta United vs Philadelphia Union
Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30
Match winner • Atlanta United
Odds: 1.56
Stake: 10
Single
#5
Columbus Crew vs Toronto FC
Major League Soccer / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 00:30
Match winner • Columbus Crew
Odds: 1.97
Stake: 10
Single
#6
Sporting Kansas City vs Minnesota United
Major League Soccer / 4th Jun 2018 @ 01:30
Match winner • Sporting Kansas City
Odds: 1.35
Stake: 10
Single
#7
Corinthians vs América Mineiro
Série A / 31st May 2018 @ 22:00
Match winner • Corinthians
Odds: 1.54
Stake: 10
Single
#8
TPS vs KuPS
Veikkausliiga / 1st Jun 2018 @ 16:30
Match winner • KuPS
Odds: 1.98
Stake: 10
Single
#9
Oita Trinita vs Roasso Kumamoto
J-League Division 2 / 3rd Jun 2018 @ 06:00
Match winner • Oita Trinita
Odds: 1.78
Stake: 10
Single
#10
Fagiano Okayama vs Montedio Yamagata
J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 11:00
Match winner • Fagiano Okayama
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 10
Single
#11
Omiya Ardija vs Kamatamare Sanuki
J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 08:00
Match winner • Omiya Ardija
Odds: 1.51
Stake: 10
Single
#12
FC Gifu vs Mito Hollyhock
J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 07:00
Match winner • FC Gifu
Odds: 2.48
Stake: 10
Single
#13
Avispa Fukuoka vs Tokushima Vortis
J-League Division 2 / 2nd Jun 2018 @ 06:00
Match winner • Avispa Fukuoka
Odds: 2.69
Stake: 10
so 13 selections I've just noticed I've got a game tonight in there
. So that game will be added to May's total. I'm not sure how often I will update this if daily every 2-3 days.
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So after taking the rest of the month off on this thread I'm currently still just over 14pts down on the month with 6/7 winners last couple of days. But for this thread it stands as
May :- -69.90pts
April:- +213.10PTS
which = +143.20pts overall
which means somewhere my working out on this has gone wrong
![:\](https://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
so from now on I'll use the site I use to calculate my picks and let them do the maths for me
What I will do from now on as well is each month reset from bet 1 and at the end of each month add it to the overall at the end of each month.
I have a good idea who should win and teams that have a better chance of winning so selections now are the teams I feel have a good chance of winning and not always a value selection.
The reason for this I'm not a bookmaker I don't need to balance a book when I place a bet I'm a punter. So like I've said before its impossible to get a exact percentage to who will win a sporting event. So I will use my methods to predict outcomes of football matches as well as what my eyes are seeing.
lets see how it goes
selections have been made and will post them now.
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On 22/05/2018 at 4:02 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:
Selections
Single
#142
Östers IF vs GAIS
Superettan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Östers IF LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.22
Stake: 10
Single
#143
Örebro SK vs Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Örebro SK WON +12.70PTS
Odds: 2.27
Stake: 10
Single
#144
IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti
Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 17:00
Match winner • IFK Mariehamn LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.87
Stake: 10
Single
#145
TPS vs FC Honka
Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 16:30
Match winner • FC Honka LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.70
Stake: 10
hopefully get back on track
Profit/Loss of the day -17.30PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +140.20PTSMonth Profit/Loss:- -69.90pts
Overall Selections 143
Won 85
Lost 57
Strike rate :- 59.44%
AVG ODDS 1.92
R.O.I +9.08%
ok over the last couple of days I've looked in depth at many things into compiling odds and match predicting. I have always believed that in order to beat the book you needed to understand how they make the odds and just do it better then them.
I have a good idea how they compile the odds at bet 365 as my odds are fairly close to the odds they have when first compiled. Now do I wannabe a odds compiler or a punter ? a question that I needed to answer.
I watch a lot of football and love analyzing data in sports. I also like predicting outcome of events and enjoy putting my knowledge to the test. I understand why the bookmakers set percentages on sporting events in order for us punters to have a bet.
In a sporting event its impossible to put an exact percentage on an outcome happening. With a flick of a coin its 50-50 there can be no argument about that. But Man city at home to Swansea we can all have a percentage of what we think it could/should be but no one can have an exact percentage.
I've mostly been a value punter betting when I believe value is there. I read this is the only way to win long term which make sense right ?. Even though I'm in profit with this over 400 selections overall (143 on this thread) could that just be luck ?
Back to the question odds compiler or punter ? I'm a punter but I do enjoy compiling odds so the question is do I just predict which teams will win or try to give a percentage to an outcome that is impossible to get 100% exact ?
answers I'm currently looking for
anyone else asked this question ?
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Selections
Single
#142
Östers IF vs GAIS
Superettan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Östers IF
Odds: 2.22
Stake: 10
Single
#143
Örebro SK vs Kalmar FF
Allsvenskan / 22nd May 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • Örebro SK
Odds: 2.27
Stake: 10
Single
#144
IFK Mariehamn vs FC Lahti
Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 17:00
Match winner • IFK Mariehamn
Odds: 2.87
Stake: 10
Single
#145
TPS vs FC Honka
Veikkausliiga / 22nd May 2018 @ 16:30
Match winner • FC Honka
Odds: 2.70
Stake: 10
hopefully get back on track
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On 19/05/2018 at 10:37 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:
Single
#133
Tochigi SC vs Machida Zelvia
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Double chance • Machida Zelvia or draw (0-0) WON +5.30PTS
Odds: 1.53
Stake: 10
On 19/05/2018 at 10:54 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Single
#134
Yokohama FC vs Jef United Chiba
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Double chance • Yokohama FC or draw (3-3) WON +3.80PTS
Odds: 1.38
Stake: 10
On 20/05/2018 at 10:58 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:On 20/05/2018 at 11:03 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#136
Single
Shanghai East Asia vs Jiangsu Sainty
Super League / 20th May 2018 @ 13:00
Match winner • Shanghai East Asia (2-0) +8.30PTS
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10
this price has now drifted out to a backable price. Live on sky for anyone interested in the China super league
On 20/05/2018 at 11:10 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#137
Single
Sport Recife vs Corinthians
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00
Double chance • Corinthians or draw (1-1) +7.50PTS
Odds: 1.75
Stake: 10
Home team opened up at 3.00 there was small value in that price. They are now 2.10
I'm happy to take them on at the price I make Sport Recife a slight fav here at 2.70.
On 20/05/2018 at 11:16 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#138
Single
Helsingborgs IF vs Örgryte IS
Superettan / 20th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • Örgryte IS or draw (2-0) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 1.85
Stake: 10
another strange price on the home side here this will be the last selection of the day
On 20/05/2018 at 7:25 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#139
Single
São Paulo vs Santos
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00
Match winner • São Paulo (1-0) WON +10.40PTS
Odds: 2.04
Stake: 10
today is not going well
but I'm hoping I've just came across something here
On 20/05/2018 at 7:31 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#140
Single
Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer / 20th May 2018 @ 21:00
Match winner • Chicago Fire (2-3) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.25
Stake: 10
On 20/05/2018 at 7:34 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#141
Single
Fluminense vs Atlético Paranaense
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 23:00
Double chance • Atlético Paranaense or draw (3-0) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 10
On 14/05/2018 at 7:48 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selections
#111
Single
Oita Trinita vs Yamaguchi FC
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Match winner • Oita Trinita LOST (2-2) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.20
Stake: 10
Selection
#112
Single
Albirex Niigata vs Montedio Yamagata
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Match winner • Albirex Niigata (0-0) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 10
On 14/05/2018 at 11:35 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#114
Single
Sagan Tosu vs F.C. Tokyo
J-League Division 1 / 20th May 2018 @ 07:00
Match winner • F.C. Tokyo (0-0) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 10
On 14/05/2018 at 3:48 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#116
Single
FC Seoul vs Jeonbuk Motors
K League Classic / 20th May 2018 @ 08:00
Match winner • Jeonbuk Motors (0-4) WON +12.50PTS
Odds: 2.25
Stake: 10
On 16/05/2018 at 7:26 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#126
Single
Internacional vs Chapecoense
Série A / 22nd May 2018 @ 00:00
Double chance • Chapecoense or draw (3-0) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.10
Stake: 10
Profit/Loss of the day -32.20PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +157.50PTSMonth Profit/Loss:- -52.60pts
Overall Selections 139
Won 84
Lost 54
Strike rate :- 60.43%
AVG ODDS 1.92
R.O.I +11.33%
what a month just can't get anything going been working hard this week to try and see how I can better this.
a revamp of odds is being looked at and strength of team rating revamp. We be back very soon
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Selection
#141
Single
Fluminense vs Atlético Paranaense
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 23:00
Double chance • Atlético Paranaense or draw
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 10
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Selection
#140
Single
Chicago Fire vs Houston Dynamo
Major League Soccer / 20th May 2018 @ 21:00
Match winner • Chicago Fire
Odds: 2.25
Stake: 10
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Selection
#139
Single
São Paulo vs Santos
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00
Match winner • São Paulo
Odds: 2.04
Stake: 10
today is not going well
but I'm hoping I've just came across something here
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1 hour ago, Dalan Quaice said:
Believe it, the 100% true odds is made available by all bookmakers one hour before kickoff. That shows the true odds. Some wait until 30 minutes. Bookmakers knows 98% chance of teams that will win. The remaining 2% is due to red card, penalty etc.
They use the most advanced xG calculations. Most manager these days uses xG to buy, sell and transfer players. xG, which stands for expected goals is the most advance statistical prediction for football and bookmakers have it. If you are using poisson or any other strategy, that is good but it will not take you far. To me, the two most sophisticated strategy is
1. xG
2. ELO
Take a look of the xG strategy.
The bookmakers don't care who win's as long as the book is balanced. When Compiling odds they need to know where the money could be going. You don't see the odds the bookmakers set for long as the punters shape the market the odds you see at kick off are the odds the punters have made.
You say the bookmaker know 98% the time who will win ? they use overround to roughly around 6/7% to help it's very basic what they do to compile odds. Of course they need to be aware of info on team news that punters will see and use to make there selection. In many cases they will try to point punters in a direction to bet by tweeting out stats going on radio/T.V giving out who there BET OF THE WEEKEND is.
But like I've send it's us the punters that make the odds move from looking at odds compiling in football for many years it amazes me how many punters bet. I'd say most do it for fun and bet on teams they think will win whatever the price they don't care about value.
I've been trying for a few years to crack the code I see many systems or predictors looking to predict the outcome of the game without using percentages & saying home away or draw. I have no idea what is the best way is maybe it is just predicting the outcome and betting teams who you think will win.
I for one have always looked for value by trying to give percentages to outcomes as I believe that what it should be betting when you think the price is to big or to low. But saying that if someone gives you 10/1 on heads in heads and tails and tails is flipped 10 in a row you would be very unlucky but 10 pts down and people will question if what you were doing is right
.
myself and many other people will try to work towards a long term profitable system/project. Most fail and I will most likely be one of them as well but it won't stop me from trying
.
Even though I don't post much apart from in my thread I'm always reading the forum and very interested in what other people are doing so keep up all the good work people and hope one day we find what we are looking for.
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Selection
#138
Single
Helsingborgs IF vs Örgryte IS
Superettan / 20th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • Örgryte IS or draw
Odds: 1.85
Stake: 10
another strange price on the home side here this will be the last selection of the day
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Selection
#137
Single
Sport Recife vs Corinthians
Série A / 20th May 2018 @ 20:00
Double chance • Corinthians or draw
Odds: 1.75
Stake: 10
Home team opened up at 3.00 there was small value in that price. They are now 2.10
I'm happy to take them on at the price I make Sport Recife a slight fav here at 2.70.
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Selection
#136
Single
Shanghai East Asia vs Jiangsu Sainty
Super League / 20th May 2018 @ 13:00
Match winner • Shanghai East Asia
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10
this price has now drifted out to a backable price. Live on sky for anyone interested in the China super league
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Selection
#135
Dalian Yifang FC vs Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng F.C
Super League / 20th May 2018 @ 12:35
Double chance • Guizhou Hengfeng Zhicheng F.C or draw
Odds: 1.90
Stake: 10
strange odds on this game both poor Bet 365 make the home side 1.90 I make them 2.75 to win this game
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Just a quick update as its very rare all matches I've had a bet on end by 10am
. Currently -9.00pts on the day. Also trying to understand why I made a selection that was 2.10 on my odds and also 2.10 odds at the bookmakers .
So I will look at odds movement today and again like I always do update at the end of all selections.
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Single
#134
Yokohama FC vs Jef United Chiba
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Double chance • Yokohama FC or draw
Odds: 1.38
Stake: 10
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Single
#133
Tochigi SC vs Machida Zelvia
J-League Division 2 / 20th May 2018 @ 06:00
Double chance • Machida Zelvia or draw
Odds: 1.53
Stake: 10
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12 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:On 14/05/2018 at 8:19 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:
Selection
#120
Single
IFK Norrköping vs Dalkurd FF
Allsvenskan / 19th May 2018 @ 17:00
Match winner • IFK Norrköping (4-2) WON +5.70PTS
Odds: 1.57
Stake: 10
On 15/05/2018 at 8:14 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#121
Single
New York City FC vs Colorado Rapids
Major League Soccer / 19th May 2018 @ 18:00
Match winner • New York City FC (4-0) WON +4.00PTS
Odds: 1.40
Stake: 10
On 15/05/2018 at 8:16 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#122
Single
Portland Timbers vs Los Angeles FC
Major League Soccer / 19th May 2018 @ 20:00
Double chance • Los Angeles FC or draw (2-1) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 1.90
Stake: 10
On 15/05/2018 at 7:01 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#123
Single
Hebei China Fortune Football Club vs Chongqing Lifan
Super League / 19th May 2018 @ 12:35
Match winner • Hebei China Fortune Football Club (2-1) WON +6.00PTS
Odds: 1.60
Stake: 10
On 14/05/2018 at 7:48 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#113
Single
Omiya Ardija vs FC Gifu
J-League Division 2 / 19th May 2018 @ 08:00
Match winner • Omiya Ardija (0-2) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 2.00
Stake: 10
taken the prices now as I believe all will be shorter by kick off
Profit/Loss of the day -14.20PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +189.70PTSMonth Profit/Loss:- -20.40pts
Overall Selections 125
Won 78
Lost 47
Strike rate :- 62.40%
AVG ODDS 1.92
R.O.I +15.80%
3/6 TODAY
one result away from profit again but still disappointing results. Feel a good run is not to far away but It may come to late to make a profit this month 
. The fight goes on again tomorrow -
Selection
#132
Single
Shonan Bellmare vs Jubilo Iwata
J-League Division 1 / 19th May 2018 @ 11:00
Match winner • Jubilo Iwata
Odds: 2.30
Stake: 10
due to odds movement on the away team I'm happy to back them at this price. Wouldn't surprise me if odds were much lower at kick off
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4 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:
Selection
#131
Single
GAIS vs Athletic FC Eskilstuna
Superettan / 18th May 2018 @ 18:00
Double chance • Athletic FC Eskilstuna or draw (0-1) WON +5.70PTS
Odds: 1.57
Stake: 10
I think this maybe my last bet today unless HJK drift out to around 1.70.
5 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:wonSelection
#130
Single
Ilves Tampere vs VPS
Veikkausliiga / 18th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • VPS or draw (0-0) WON +6.60PTS
Odds: 1.66
Stake: 10
On 15/05/2018 at 7:24 PM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#124
Single
Gefle IF vs Jönköpings Södra
Superettan / 18th May 2018 @ 18:00
Double chance • Jönköpings Södra or draw (1-2) WON +4.40PTS
Odds: 1.44
Stake: 10
On 17/05/2018 at 7:53 AM, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selection
#127
Single
FC Lahti vs RoPS
Veikkausliiga / 18th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • RoPS or draw (0-0) WON +8.30PTS
Odds: 1.83
Stake: 10
Veikkausliiga now added to leagues I compile odds for
11 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selections
#128
Single
Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy
J-League Division 2 / 18th May 2018 @ 11:00
Double chance • Fagiano Okayama or draw (Abandoned) VOID
Odds: 1.35
Stake: 10
Now this price doesn't look great 1.35 but the home win is just under 5% value at this time but double chance I have at 1.17 which gives me a 11.40% Value.
Also keeping at eye on a few more odds today as a few teams are getting close to backing or laying. Will post in a little more detail when I have more time
.
9 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:Selections
#129
Single
Tianjin Teda vs Shandong Luneng Taishan
Super League / 18th May 2018 @ 12:35
Double chance • Tianjin Teda or draw (1-2) LOST -10.00PTS
Odds: 1.72
Stake: 10
Profit/Loss of the day +15.00PTS
Overall Profit/Loss +203.90PTSMonth Profit/Loss:- -6.20pts
Overall Selections 119
Won 75
Lost 44
Strike rate :- 63.02%
AVG ODDS 1.92
R.O.I +17.13%
4/5 selections winning and one match abandoned due to a thunderstorm
. The losing selection was a 93rd min goal . Now it's time for the weekend selections so far I only have 10 selections but more will be added when the price becomes value.
see you all tomorrow
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Selection
#131
Single
GAIS vs Athletic FC Eskilstuna
Superettan / 18th May 2018 @ 18:00
Double chance • Athletic FC Eskilstuna or draw
Odds: 1.57
Stake: 10
I think this maybe my last bet today unless HJK drift out to around 1.70.
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Selection
#130
Single
Ilves Tampere vs VPS
Veikkausliiga / 18th May 2018 @ 16:30
Double chance • VPS or draw
Odds: 1.66
Stake: 10
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1 hour ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:
This game has been Interrupted due to lighting
I'm not sure if the game rest of the game will be played today or not. I'm guessing they will play it today or maybe the rest tomorrow I believe as long as the game is completed with 72 hrs the bet stands.
ok this game was Abandoned I'm looking into if the game will be replayed from the 63rd min or if game doesn't count. The game I doubt will be played soon as there must be a reason this game was pushed to Friday as I believe not many J league games are played on a Friday night. So looks like it will be voided but will keep you upto date.
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4 hours ago, FootballBettingPredictor said:
Selections
#128
Single
Fagiano Okayama vs Tokyo Verdy
J-League Division 2 / 18th May 2018 @ 11:00
Double chance • Fagiano Okayama or draw
Odds: 1.35
Stake: 10
Now this price doesn't look great 1.35 but the home win is just under 5% value at this time but double chance I have at 1.17 which gives me a 11.40% Value.
Also keeping at eye on a few more odds today as a few teams are getting close to backing or laying. Will post in a little more detail when I have more time
.
This game has been Interrupted due to lighting
I'm not sure if the game rest of the game will be played today or not. I'm guessing they will play it today or maybe the rest tomorrow I believe as long as the game is completed with 72 hrs the bet stands.
FootballBettingPredictor
in Betting Systems & Strategy
Posted
Profit/Loss of the day +5.40pts
Overall Profit/Loss +145.60PTS
Month Profit/Loss:- -64.50pts
Overall Selections 144
Won 86
Lost 57
Strike rate :- 59.72%
AVG ODDS 1.92
R.O.I +10.11%
so with that game out of the way leaves me with -64.50pts for the month on this thread can't get any worse in June can it ?