Kentucky110

Hi All selections for today I will post Premiership (if there is one After the 3:00pm games have finished

Championship Sunday 1:30

Hi All one selection for tonight in Championship

@scream2012 Hi There
If you are going to post your selections can you create a new thread this will avoid any confusion and unnecessary questions to me. Looks like you are having a little success and I am pleased you have found the spreadsheet useful but I am only interested in English leagues and would like to keep the thread confined to that
Thanks 
Kentucky110

@scream2012 Hi There
If you are going to post your selections can you create a new thread this will avoid any confusion and unnecessary questions to me. Looks like you are having a little success and I am pleased you have found the spreadsheet useful but I am only interested in English leagues and would like to keep the thread confined to that
Thanks 
Kentucky110

One for today

The Basis of the program is to look at the league in rounds
All games need to be rated but you add but you add results as they happen as this can change the selection Sometimes not all games in the round can be entered because they have been postponed (Champions league,Europa bad weather ect) Do not enter these games
If you look at my Postings then for example Premiership this week all games played in round have been rated
The round = games played 24th 25th and 26th results are entered as they are known this sometimes changes the selection or gives a second selection in the League (examples of which have been posted)
 using the last 4 will often give a different ranking (uses a different formula) than the ranking that is uses ALL games
see example from my program below The sheet I posted replicates only the Over/Under selections and the last 4 Games
program below has calculated Tuesdays Championship selection and if you enter ALL games you should get the same

different selection for last 4 games over ( this was added for Jazzman45)

Hope that explains this a little more clearly
What does concern me is that your screen shot is missing Rankings for Din Bucuresti and CFR Cluj
are the formulas still in the sheet have both teams played more than 4 home games or 4 away games
if you spend a little time reading through the posts you may understand the concept a little better

The Basis of the program is to look at the league in rounds
All games need to be rated but you add but you add results as they happen as this can change the selection Sometimes not all games in the round can be entered because they have been postponed (Champions league,Europa bad weather ect) Do not enter these games
If you look at my Postings then for example Premiership this week all games played in round have been rated
The round = games played 24th 25th and 26th results are entered as they are known this sometimes changes the selection or gives a second selection in the League (examples of which have been posted)
 using the last 4 will often give a different ranking (uses a different formula) than the ranking that is uses ALL games
see example from my program below The sheet I posted replicates only the Over/Under selections and the last 4 Games
program below has calculated Tuesdays Championship selection and if you enter ALL games you should get the same

different selection for last 4 games over ( this was added for Jazzman45)

Hope that explains this a little more clearly
What does concern me is that your screen shot is missing Rankings for Din Bucuresti and CFR Cluj
are the formulas still in the sheet have both teams played more than 4 home games or 4 away games
if you spend a little time reading through the posts you may understand the concept a little better

Hi All Today's Over 2.5 selections below ( Championship you should have entered Last nights result if using your own sheet)
Note Home Away columns showing league position Home/Away games (not used in calculations)
Remember to Update results after early Kick off's it may generate another selection. If it does then I will post
I am off for a break next week if I get chance I will post selections but they may be late




Under 2.5 below these are not selections just for info

Ken
 

Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts.
I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends
I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up
 

Ken

Hi All As promised is a list of the predictions. Prices were taken on Betfair either Exchange or Sportsbook if the bet was recorded on exchange then 5 ticks were removed from the available price to account for Commission. The P/L to date is 1.84 pts.
I am sure that by searching various bookies this could have been reduced nor have I checked but this will be done when the season ends
I will continue with the over 2.5 goal selections as I think there is a chance of a profit even though the last couple of weeks have been a bit disappointing. Plus there has been interest from other form users and I wouldn't like to disappoint them by giving up
 

Ken

Today's over 2.5 Selections

Ratings include last nights result


If you have used the new over under link you should have the same Ratings as below these are not selections just testing




Possible away win Reading and over 2.5?
Ken
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

@jazzman45Hi There I see what you are saying and after I have compiled the sheet to take into account the under games I will have a look at seeing how much work is involved in creating a sheet that looks at the last 4 games it should be possible . I think you will find the Over/Under info quite interesting. as it looks at percentages for Home and Away games > 2.5 Home and Away games BTTS  Home and Away wins > 2.5. ( it does not use the ranking method to make selections)and I have spotted some trends that will need investigating
Just a thought have you considered just entering the last 4 home games and last 4 away games in the fixtures and results tab.
League table would be wrong but the goals ranking would be correct for you. I would make a copy of your sheet before changing anything but you could test your theory.I would be interested in your findings.
I am going to stick with the current selection method until the end of the season as I am fairly confident that it works.
Hopefully I will have the over under sheet ready for Friday and will post the link when done.
Thank you for your kind words and ideas

Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording
the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)
If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.
No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend

Well last set of games was a bit of a disaster but I will keep posting and recording
the under picks seem to be doing a bit better (sod's law as I am not backing them)
If there is enough interest I will modify one of the Google sheets to show the under selections also just let me know if you are interested.
No selections for tonight's remaining games so lets see what happens weekend

Hi All
To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)



So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)


Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5
Will keep you updated.
Ken
 
 

Hi All
To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)



So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)


Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5
Will keep you updated.
Ken
 
 

Hi All
To avoid any further confusion I will show just the over 2.5 goal games for Tuesday/Wednesday and add any of the extra picks at the end if you are using your own sheets then your Ratings and master should be the same as below.
Remember only the Over games are selections and after adding results there may be an extra selection in Wednesdays Championship matches (Blue highlight is a strong selection)



So 3 selections Lets see how they perform
Now using the Shots on target Module we have below these are NOT selections just seeing how they go ( I did put the iss of death on Saturdays H.2.5 picks!!!)


Just the three     two under 2.5 and      one A-2.5
Will keep you updated.
Ken
 
 

Hi Catania and mteam
The 4 Leagues displayed above are using the Shots on Target module But the over selections are calculated before this kicks in
You should have the same over selection as I have as  tried to explain in my post
If you look at the Showing only 2.5 selections image then you should have the same ratings
Hope that explains things
 

Hi Catania and mteam
The 4 Leagues displayed above are using the Shots on Target module But the over selections are calculated before this kicks in
You should have the same over selection as I have as  tried to explain in my post
If you look at the Showing only 2.5 selections image then you should have the same ratings
Hope that explains things
 

After adding results in Championship another bet
Derby v Sheff Utd Over
 
@mteam
@Catania Will respond shortly
 

The format of the displayed games is a little different now (see below)
Selections are ONLY the Over games ( Over 2.5 goals) as this is how the thread started and will continue
as you can see I have added A-2.5 ( Away win and over 2.5 goals in the game) H-2.5 (Home win and over 2.5 goals in the game)
Under has also been included ( under 2.5 goals) These are NOT being posted as selections still testing the data
Av. Shots Agst should be self explanatory and is not being used (Yet)
I will try and explain the highlighted Bets
 




All the games have been Rated using the Shots on Target module. Looking at the first Over Game Chelsea v Man Utd Over is highlighted in Blue This indicates that the average for BTTS  to date is greater than the league average and that the average for games played to date over 2.5 is greater than the league average. so the Chelsea game and the Bury game both meet the criteria. The other 2 over games don't meet the criteria Eg Luton home games over 2.5 is 50% and Walsall is 50% giving an average of 50% and the League average is 53%
The observant amongst you may ask why has the module picked Luton v Walsall neither team is ranked Low 3 nor is it the Lowest Master (lowest Ranking highlighted in magenta) The screen shots are using the shots on target module whereas the Over selections do not. The module selects the Over bets first then adds the Shots on target data Below is screen shot league one NOT using shots on Target

As you can see Ratings and Master are are different
Under picks ( NOT selections) are calculated in the same way eg Stevenage over 2.5 33% (which means under games are 67%) Crewe over 2.5 33% average for both teams Under 2.5 is 67% League average is 55% for BTTS Stevenage games is 33% Crewe is 17% League average 51% Both teams under the League average ( I Hope you are following this  and you have not fallen asleep)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 are using the shots module and the reason Peterborough is highlighted is because it meets the same criteria for goals as described in the Over selections.
So this week we have 4 Over SELECTIONS ( I will be reporting back on all the selections i have posted once we have reached 25 bets Profit or Loss to level stakes using available betfair odds)
Under selections just watching and recording (are highlighted ones better than the others?)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 again just watching and recording ( been very good so far  or is that a kiss of death)
Lets see what this week brings
Remember tonight's game once recorded may change Championship selections and early kickoff Saturday may change Premiership selections if they do I will re post

Hello All
below is the method I use for selecting Over 2.5 goals
Most punters look at average goals per game and if the game average is over 2.5  for both home and away teams then it ma be considered as a selection
My approach is similar but I rank the teams (see below snip from Excel)
the below table (League 1) shows Avg.H Goals This is the average for goals scored in game for Home Team Home matches only
so for example (Home games only) Portsmouth Goals for 9 Goals against 2 total =11 divide by number of home games played 4 gives 2.75 The ranking for Portsmouth (Rank G.H) is 9
Portsmouth Goals for home (Avg.GFH) is 2.25 with a ranking of 1 
I add the 2 ranking figures together Portsmouth = 10
I do the same for the away Team so for Wycombe Rank Goals Away (Rank G.A)=3 Rank Goals for Away (Rank GFA)=12 add them together giving a total of 15 for Wycombe
I then add the I then add the home ranking to the away ranking Total 25 for this game
The same is done for All Games in League ( see Lower snip from Excel)


How do I select from this? ( These games are for League 1 Sat 22nd)
I only bet if the home team has played 4 or more games at home and the away team has played 4 or more games away
I only consider games with the 3 Lowest Home Rankings ( Highlighted in red) and the 3 Lowest Away Rankings (Highlighted in red)
I now have a total of 6 games to consider. I now find the lowest Total ranking and if this is one of the 6 games then it becomes the selection for over 2.5 goals
My selection for Sat League 1 is Gillingham v Peterbrough over 2.5 goals
I do this for 4 leagues normally Premiership,Championship,League 1 and league 2
and My bet is 4 trebles and a 4 timer
Its quite simple to set up in Excel if you want to try
 

The format of the displayed games is a little different now (see below)
Selections are ONLY the Over games ( Over 2.5 goals) as this is how the thread started and will continue
as you can see I have added A-2.5 ( Away win and over 2.5 goals in the game) H-2.5 (Home win and over 2.5 goals in the game)
Under has also been included ( under 2.5 goals) These are NOT being posted as selections still testing the data
Av. Shots Agst should be self explanatory and is not being used (Yet)
I will try and explain the highlighted Bets
 




All the games have been Rated using the Shots on Target module. Looking at the first Over Game Chelsea v Man Utd Over is highlighted in Blue This indicates that the average for BTTS  to date is greater than the league average and that the average for games played to date over 2.5 is greater than the league average. so the Chelsea game and the Bury game both meet the criteria. The other 2 over games don't meet the criteria Eg Luton home games over 2.5 is 50% and Walsall is 50% giving an average of 50% and the League average is 53%
The observant amongst you may ask why has the module picked Luton v Walsall neither team is ranked Low 3 nor is it the Lowest Master (lowest Ranking highlighted in magenta) The screen shots are using the shots on target module whereas the Over selections do not. The module selects the Over bets first then adds the Shots on target data Below is screen shot league one NOT using shots on Target

As you can see Ratings and Master are are different
Under picks ( NOT selections) are calculated in the same way eg Stevenage over 2.5 33% (which means under games are 67%) Crewe over 2.5 33% average for both teams Under 2.5 is 67% League average is 55% for BTTS Stevenage games is 33% Crewe is 17% League average 51% Both teams under the League average ( I Hope you are following this  and you have not fallen asleep)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 are using the shots module and the reason Peterborough is highlighted is because it meets the same criteria for goals as described in the Over selections.
So this week we have 4 Over SELECTIONS ( I will be reporting back on all the selections i have posted once we have reached 25 bets Profit or Loss to level stakes using available betfair odds)
Under selections just watching and recording (are highlighted ones better than the others?)
H-2.5 and A-2.5 again just watching and recording ( been very good so far  or is that a kiss of death)
Lets see what this week brings
Remember tonight's game once recorded may change Championship selections and early kickoff Saturday may change Premiership selections if they do I will re post

Well Saturday was a bit of a washout 2 Losers ( Exeter had a goal disallowed in 2nd Half)
But Newport Came up trumps ( Not a selection just watching and gathering data)
Over the last couple of weeks I have been looking at historical Data and back testing some theory's I have now built into the module Over 2.5 which I will keep posting as selections Plus Home win over 2.5 goals and Away win plus over 2.5 goals I have also added Under 2.5 goals. The other selections are for watching only!. Included in the table will be 2 extra columns Average Shots Against  Home and Away (data not currently used)
Lets see what weekend brings as we are now including Premiership games now they have played 4 home and away
(Excluding Tottenham and Watford Games only 3)