AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010

[Ashtee]

Thought I'd best get something going.

Event	Collingwood v Geelong
Selection	Either Team wins by Under 15.5
Strength	7/10
Date	17/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Tab @ 3.15
Reasoning	Bet type: Tri Bet Generally Finals are either extremely tight or total blowouts and already five of the six have been these ways. 31% of the last 48 Prelim finals were 1-12 margins while just 25% were 13-39. Of course, this shapes as a tight tussle and I guess you could say “you can just about bet on it!”. I suspect Collingwood have the correct belief and focus to finish in front, so I will also look to hedge a little in that regard. My price; EU15.5 @ 2.57

Event	St Kilda v Western Bulldogs
Selection	Brad Johnson Kicks More Behinds Than Goals (DRAW NO BET)
Strength	7/10
Date	18/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Sportingbet @ 2.60
Reasoning	Bet is with sportingbet.com.au I read the SP tipster rules and still not sure how the rules commitee catagorise this bet, but here goes. Brad Johnson is 9-goals 8-Behinds this season, well below his career averages and ratios as he links the incoming ball around the arc moreso than deep in the goal mouth where fleet footed (or even flat footed) defenders can run off him, so it appears the chances for him to pick up a cheap one over the back will be limited. From his 14-games in 2010 he's kicked more goals on four occasions, more behinds on two occasions and it was a tie the other eight times. Of course statistics often need further careful consideration and the four times he was more goals were against very weakened opponents with Bulldogs doubling the oppositions score each time, such was the lack of resistance. So the 0-0 he got against Sydney & 0-2 in the first final against Collingwood is more true to form against quality defence. Statistics aside, he simply is slower and no longer dangerous and it's hard to envisage him allowed much in the way of time and space scoring shots against the ilk of St Kilda's defence.

Event	Premiership Winner
Selection	St Kilda
Strength	7/10
Date	25/09/2010
Bookmaker/Price	Centrebet @ 3.25 (gone now but I notice Sportingbet.com have 3.30)
Reasoning	St Kilda should have no problem going through to the final. WBD needed to muster every ounce of resolve and got through after concentration lapses and errors from Sydney. I suspect they’ll meet Collingwood in the final but it does take a lot of nerve to win them and St Kilda appear best placed after enduring the disappointment of last year. Geelong strike me that not everything is as 100% tight as it needs to be and I believe 3.10 about them is too short. The price on Collingwood (2.90) is a shade of overs IMO while 20.00 WBD is a little too short. St Kilda are no worse than a 2.60 chance, so 3.25 is certainly the valid bet. Apparently St Kilda are set to bring in Barry Breen for the Grand Final.

[milano01]

Re: AFL Preliminary Finals, 2010 guys i am thinking of taking collingwood at 1.87 , typical thing, big game, kind of similar qualities, but home advantage, any opinion ?