Massey-Postdata System

[Faxy Fowler]

Hi, been lurking for some time but my first post on here so be gentle with me... I've been trying this for a week or so on paper and it basically involves selecting on the following criteria. 1. Racing Post, top rated by RPR and also the Postdata selection. 2. Racing Post forecast odds no greater than 4.0. And in terms of selection, it is as simple as that. The only thing to do then is to go to the Massey website and see if he rates it top too. It seems like his selections turn over a profit over time and it strikes me that a couple of bob extra might be worth considering. So the staking based on these selections is as follows. 0.5 pts if joint top RPR rated. 1 pt if solo top RPR rated. Double the stake above if it is top rated by Massey (i.e. stake becomes 1 or 2 pts). In the last 7 days this has produced a strike rate of 29/56, and a total return in the order of 17.63 pts to 1 pt stakes (31% return). Let's hope that continues. I had also looked at selections over odds of 4.0 and it is worth noting this produced a SR of 3 from 39, and considerable losses. So really, something perhaps to consider for anyone interested in laying at higher prices.... The only minor issue with this now is using the RP forecast so some selections may as the day progresses steam or drift, but overall I would hope these even out. Also I only have Massey's ratings for the day, not his evening ones, so there will be no doubling if his ratings aren't available. I will generally post selections before heading to work each day. I am going to also do small real stakes through Betfair and for completeness will post results based on both Betfair odds achieved and SP.

[Faxy Fowler]

[jayalexander]

Re: Massey-Postdata System :welcome and good luck. I look forward to seeing your results.

[StormSignal]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Nice start FF. Two winners and a non-runner.

[Faxy Fowler]

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

15-Sep	1425	Listowel	Exodus	1	1.73	1.70
15-Sep	1435	Beverley	The Shrew	1	1.91	1.99
15-Sep	1445	Yarmouth	Strike A Deal	1	4.00	3.10
15-Sep	1455	Sandown	Mutayaser	2	3.50	2.40
15-Sep	1520	Yarmouth	Free As A Lark	1	3.25	2.80
15-Sep	1605	Sandown	Skysurfers	1	3.00	3.40
15-Sep	1640	Sandown	Rare Tern	1	2.88	2.42
15-Sep	1650	Beverley	Indieslad	2	2.75	2.50
15-Sep	1730	Yarmouth	Billberry	0.5	4.00	4.10
15-Sep	1810	Kempton	Kristalette	1	2.20	1.90
15-Sep	1840	Kempton	Adoyen Spice	1	2.88	2.22

STARTING BANK: +101.80 The above selections for tomorrow. Quite a number in total. The penultimate column is the Racing Post forecast odds (which must be 4.0 or under), and the last is the Betfair odds available. To clarify (and it hasn't mattered yet) if the selection is tied in the Massey ratings for the top there is NO doubling of the stakes. Thanks to those offering their kind words of encouragement thus far. Hope this continues to offer some interesting selections and results. I am wondering about using the RP forecasting odds. I will continue to use them but will continue to keep a note of any selections that are at perhaps 4.4 or under on Betfair just for now to see if there is anything else. I might also go for a couple more ticks too, as its quite probable I'd get matched pre-race. What encouraged me about testing for a week was that it produced a lot of selections, a lot of winners (virtually four each day at a good strike rate).

[jayalexander]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Great start. Hope it can continue :ok

[ralphie7]

Re: Massey-Postdata System just returning the compliment mate Good Luck with this :hope

[gbettle]

Re: Massey-Postdata System All the best with this. G.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Thanks. Just got home from work after a long day so will do results tomorrow but today doesn't look quite so good, I've probably ended around 3 pts down at an initial glance. Going to keep with it though, all these ideas have significant ups and downs over a longer haul.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System This confirms a pretty disappointing day. 4 winners but a dead heat included (not sure if I've calculated the return correctly). 4 winners is great but not if its from 11 selections. There was a non-runner in here. Start bank +100.00 Bank from day 1 +101.80 Daily pts -3.62 Total wins 7/16 Strike rate 43.8% New bank to SP +98.18. ROI -9.9% I will try and produce something with column headers on it but the middle one is the Betfair odds. I'll take these out next time to avoid confusion.

[gbettle]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Might be nice to include the Saddle cloth number infront of the Horse's name.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

16-Sep	1500	Pontefract	Old Master Expert	1	2.50
16-Sep	1520	Ayr	Silvertrees	2	2.38

Three selections today, 5 pts total staked, RPF forecasts added. EDIT - at 0847 Sud Pacifique was declared a NR.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Silvertrees also turned out to be an NR so just one selection yesterday but a winner. This came in at Evens SP. New table before I head off to work. I've amended the profit for Roayh which deadheated the night before. I simply halved the stake but again I'm not sure how it should read. I will also include saddle cloth numbers at the suggestion of gbettle and generally try and tidy the figures up a bit.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE	TIME	COURSE		HORSE	PTS	RPF	SP	POS	+/-
15-Sep	1425	Listowel		Exodus	1	1.73	1.57	5	-1.00
15-Sep	1435	Beverley		The Shrew	1	1.91	1.80	1	0.80
15-Sep	1445	Yarmouth		Strike A Deal	1	4.00	2.75	2	-1.00
15-Sep	1455	Sandown		Mutayaser	2	3.50	2.75	2	-2.00
15-Sep	1605	Sandown		Skysurfers	1	3.00	3.25	2	-1.00
15-Sep	1640	Sandown		Rare Tern	1	2.88	2.88	3	-1.00
15-Sep	1650	Beverley		Indieslad	2	2.75	1.83	1	1.67
15-Sep	1730	Yarmouth		Billberry	1	4.00	4.00	4	-0.50
15-Sep	1810	Kempton		Kristalette	1	2.20	1.91	1	0.91
15-Sep	1840	Kempton		Adoyen Spice	1	2.88	2.25	6	-1.00
15-Sep	2010	Kempton		Roayh	0	2.88	2.25	1	0.31
16-Sep	1500	Pontefract		Old Master Expert	1	2.50	2.00	1	1.00

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

PTS STAKED	19.25
PTS GAINED	-1.01
ORIGINAL BANK	100.00
NEW BANK	98.99
RACES	17
WINS	8
STRIKE RATE	47.06%
ROI	-5.25%

I am struggling to get more than one table on one page but I think I've worked it out now. I am still unsure of whether my calcs on the dead heat are right but I've changed them to simply halve the stake. Its easily altered.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE TIME COURSE NO HORSE PTS RPF 17-Sep 1400 Newbury 5 Enthusing 2 4.00 17-Sep 1440 Ayr 8 Berberana 1 3.50 17-Sep 1510 Newbury 6 Rainbow Peak 1 2.38 17-Sep 1620 Newbury 1 Attracted To You 2 3.50 17-Sep 1710 Listowel 3 Hazeymm 2 3.50 17-Sep 2120 Wolverhampton 2 Tislaam 1 3.50

Today's selections. Will probably update tomorrow now as I am straight out after work.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE	TIME	COURSE	NO	HORSE	PTS	RPF	SP	POS	+/-
17-Sep	1400	Newbury	5	Enthusing	2	4.00	4.00	1	6.00
17-Sep	1445	Ayr	8	Berberana	1	3.50	3.75	7	-1.00
17-Sep	1510	Newbury	6	Rainbow Peak	1	2.38	1.73	2	-1.00
17-Sep	1710	Listowel	3	Hazeymm	2	3.50	5.00	6	-2.00

The certainty of this one is that it is exceptional at picking non-runners, Attracted To You and Tislaam both obliging yesterday. Overall a good day though even with the one winner. 2 pts gained to SP put us in profit overall. PTS STAKED 25.25 PTS GAINED 0.99 ORIGINAL BANK 100.00 NEW BANK 100.99 RACES 21 WINS 9 STRIKE RATE 42.86% ROI 3.92%

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE	TIME	COURSE	NO	HORSE	PTS	RPF
18-Sep	1330	Newbury	2	Chain Lightning	2	3.75
18-Sep	1400	Newbury	2	Easy Ticket	0.5	4.00
18-Sep	1430	Newbury	2	Libranno	1	3.50
18-Sep	1435	Catterick	2	Bear Tobouggie	1	2.50
18-Sep	1445	Ayr	7	Rimth	2	3.50
18-Sep	1455	Newmarket	8	Sir Reginald	2	3.50
18-Sep	1545	Catterick	8	Abergavenny	0.5	3.50
18-Sep	1615	Newbury	3	Tazeez	1	1.40
18-Sep	1920	Wolverhampton	7	Better Self	1	3.50
18-Sep	2020	Wolverhampton	1	Biographical	1	1.67

12 pts staked today, hope for the best. Just been e-mailed by Racing Post to tell me membership is increasing by £1.45 per month from 1 November. A complete rip off as it is to be honest, and another increase is putting this system in jeopardy.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE	TIME	COURSE	NO	HORSE	PTS	RPF	SP	POS	+/-
18-Sep	1330	Newbury	2	Chain Lightning	2	3.75	4.50	2	-2.00
18-Sep	1400	Newbury	2	Easy Ticket	0.5	4.00	2.63	3	-0.50
18-Sep	1430	Newbury	2	Libranno	1	3.50	3.50	5	-1.00
18-Sep	1435	Catterick	2	Bear Tobouggie	1	2.50	3.25	7	-1.00
18-Sep	1445	Ayr	7	Rimth	2	3.50	2.38	7	-2.00
18-Sep	1455	Newmarket	8	Sir Reginald	2	3.50	3.75	2	-2.00
18-Sep	1545	Catterick	8	Abergavenny	0.5	3.50	2.20	2	-0.50
18-Sep	1615	Newbury	3	Tazeez	1	1.40	1.83	1	0.83
18-Sep	1920	Wolverhampton	7	Better Self	1	3.50	2.63	2	-1.00
18-Sep	2020	Wolverhampton	1	Biographical	1	1.67	1.36	1	0.36

A very annoying day altogether. Just two winners at piddly prices and four second places three of which were beaten at odds of 16/1, 50/1 and 15/2 respectively.

PTS STAKED	37.25
PTS GAINED	-7.81
ORIGINAL BANK	100.00
NEW BANK	92.19
RACES	31
WINS	11
STRIKE RATE	35.48%
ROI	-20.97%

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

DATE	TIME	COURSE	NO	HORSE	PTS	RPF
19-Sep	1415	Fairyhouse	6	Whip Mark	0.5	3.25
19-Sep	1420	Uttoxeter	2	Ackertac	1	2.88
19-Sep	1500	Plumpton	12	Whatdoyoucallit	1	3.25
19-Sep	1510	Hamilton	5	Galloping Queen	2	3.50
19-Sep	1540	Hamilton	4	Templetuohy Max	1	3.00
19-Sep	1545	Fairyhouse	19	Moonlit Garden	1	2.75
19-Sep	1620	Uttoxeter	6	Frosted Grape	1	2.75
19-Sep	1700	Plumpton	2	Rock Me	1	3.25
19-Sep	1715	Fairyhouse	4	Sean Og Coulston	1	3.00

9.5 pts staked today.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System

19-Sep	1415	Fairyhouse	6	Whip Mark	0.5	3.25	2.75	1	0.88
19-Sep	1420	Uttoxeter	2	Ackertac	1	2.88	1.67	1	0.67
19-Sep	1500	Plumpton	12	Whatdoyoucallit	1	3.25	2.63	F	-1.00
19-Sep	1510	Hamilton	5	Galloping Queen	2	3.50	2.63	3	-2.00
19-Sep	1540	Hamilton	4	Templetuohy Max	1	3.00	3.50	4	-1.00
19-Sep	1545	Fairyhouse	19	Moonlit Garden	1	2.75	6.50	6	-1.00
19-Sep	1620	Uttoxeter	6	Frosted Grape	1	2.25	2.25	1	1.25
19-Sep	1700	Plumpton	2	Rock Me	1	3.25	3.50	4	-1.00
19-Sep	1715	Fairyhouse	4	Sean Og Coulston	1	3.00	3.00	2	-1.00

Useless. PTS STAKED 46.75 PTS GAINED -12.02 ORIGINAL BANK 100.00 NEW BANK 87.98 RACES 40 WINS 14 STRIKE RATE 35.00% ROI -25.71%

[jayalexander]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Oh dear :\ Hopefully you'll notice some patterns emerging and can tinker with the criteria. I'm starting to think there's no substitute for form studying anyhow.

[Faxy Fowler]

Re: Massey-Postdata System Agreed. I suppose even if you study form, you are still going to rate, give numbers, etc, and I think the results prior to testing were that good it seemed worth going with. One filter that springs to mind is sticking to races of say 8/9 runners or less, but the pitiful weekend results suggest I might be better looking elsewhere on this one. The strike rate is not disastrous but the overall return has been woeful.