Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2010 Share Posted September 14, 2010 Hopefully not! Following on from my Glory Hunt last season, and now that the season is properly under way with all teams have played at least four games, I'm going to post my system selections on here. The ratings only apply to English league matches. All teams have a seperate home and away rating based on their results. These ratings are adjusted after each match to take account of the result, and also the strength of the opposition. The aim of the system was originally to find the matches that were most likely to finish up as draws. However, in order to reduce the losing runs, (they play havoc with my betting confidence), I will be laying my lowest rated team (with Betfair), or backing the the highest rated team and the draw, (whichever gives the best return). I will be laying to lose a maximum liability of 10 points or staking 10 points on the double chance odds. My starting bank is 200 points. Hopefully it will all become clearer when I post the first selections tomorrow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2010 Author Share Posted September 14, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2010 Author Share Posted September 14, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 14, 2010 Author Share Posted September 14, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? I've edited the results table to make it fit on the page. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 17, 2010 Author Share Posted September 17, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? Back tomorrow with 9 selections, (although it might only be 8 after I've slept on it!) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 19, 2010 Author Share Posted September 19, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttasparks Posted September 20, 2010 Share Posted September 20, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? Keep it up..would you mind sharing how you get your ratings? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 20, 2010 Author Share Posted September 20, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? Hi Buttasparks and thank you for your encouragement. I'm not prepared to go into all of the details of my system, but I will try to explain the basic points without giving it all away. I really only use two "variables" to create my ratings...What numerical attribute should be attributed to a goal? And how many of the previous 1,2,3,4,5,6 etc matches should count as current form? To give you an idea of how simple everything is, it only takes a few calculations to determine what I expect the result to be and then to recalculate the new ratings for each team...Of course there are what seems like millions of other calculations in the background, but they are really only there for me to assess of the system. As already stated in the opening email, each team has a seperate home and away rating. Based on those ratings I can therefore predict the final result, (in theory at least!) So, if we use yesterdays game between Manchester United and Liverpool: Man Utd. home rating = 10 Liverpool away rating = 9 Therefore the "system" predicts that Man Utd will win by one goal, and if that is the result the ratings remain the same after the match. However, if Man utd beat Liverpool by 2 goals the respective ratings would then be 10.5 and 8.5. If the match is a draw, the ratings would be 9.5 for both teams. If Liverpool had won by one goal, the revised ratings would have been Man Utd 9 and Liverpool 10 etc Obviously these are not my real ratings, the points allocation is incorrect, and there is no allowance for current form, but it shows the principal behind the system. I'm not claiming it as original, )...I'm fairly certain that Racing & Football Outlook use something similar, albeit with much more complex calculations, variables and reports than I use). There are also a number of contributors to this very web-site who use variations of this system. I believe PR does something along these lines, but factors in additional information after the game regarding team news, injuries and dodgy refereeing decisions etc. For instance in yesterdays match, while the goal superiority of Man Utd was actually only 1 goal, most neutrals would agree that Man Utd probably deserved to win by more than 1 goal. I'm sure that my ratings would benefit if I were able to read every single match report and make a subjective adjustment to my ratings, unfortunately I just don't have the time. Talking of time, (see how I segued into that!) I dread to think just how much time I have spent developing this...It is certainly in the 100's and possibly 1000's of hours!...I'm not bright enough to "scrape" the information into Excel. so I invariably cut and paste or, worse still, manually type everything in. On the plus side, after all that hard work, it only takes about an hour a week to keep it all ticking over now. And finally a word of warning...Based on the previous 6 seasons, the typical strike rate is around 65% which usually equates to a SMALL profit (low single figure yield) over the season. The strike rate is currently at an unsustainable 84.61%!! Sadly, nobody is actually going to get rich quick anytime soon following my selections. Hopefully it'll be a bit of fun with a profit at the end of the season...I'd love to double the bank in a season, but realistically I'd consider a yield of 3% and a 50% increase in the bank a victory. If I've missed anything out, or not made it clear, please feel free to ask. Once again, thank you for your interest, and apologies to you, (and anyone else reading this) for typing so damn much! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 21, 2010 Author Share Posted September 21, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? DateBetHomeAwayLay with BetfairBF lay odds(Or back) Double chanceDec. oddsBet withLiability or Stake21-Sep-1014GatesheadGrimsbyGrimsby2.64 10.0021-Sep-1015MansfieldYorkMansfield2.32 10.00 Just two for tonight :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 21, 2010 Author Share Posted September 21, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 23, 2010 Author Share Posted September 23, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? DateBetHomeAwayLay with BetfairBF lay odds(Or back) Double chanceDec. oddsBet withLiability or Stake23-Sep-1016AFC WimbledonCrawley TownCrawley Town2.80 10.00 Just one match tonight, and it is a lay with Betfair :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 23, 2010 Author Share Posted September 23, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? DateBetHomeAwayLay with BetfairBF lay odds(Or back) Double chanceDec. oddsBet withLiability or StakeScoreW/LProfit or loss200.00Yield23-Sep-1016AFC WimbledonCrawley TownCrawley Town2.80 10.002 1 Won5.28 233.8821.17 It looks like there will be 6 bets on Saturday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 25, 2010 Author Share Posted September 25, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 25, 2010 Author Share Posted September 25, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted September 28, 2010 Author Share Posted September 28, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 2, 2010 Author Share Posted October 2, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 3, 2010 Author Share Posted October 3, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? Due to the international break, there will be slim pickings next week! There is just one bet on Tuesday, and at the moment there is potentially another bet on Saturday...And they are both laying the home :eek Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? DateBetHomeAwayLay with BetfairBF lay odds(Or back) Double chanceDec. oddsBet withLiability or StakeScoreW/LProfit or loss200.00Yield05-Oct-1031Hayes & YeadingCambridgeHayes & Yeading2.76 10.00 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 5, 2010 Author Share Posted October 5, 2010 Re: Back for more punishment? DateBetHomeAwayLay with BetfairBF lay odds(Or back) Double chanceDec. oddsBet withLiability or StakeScoreW/LProfit or loss200.00Yield05-Oct-1031Hayes & YeadingCambridgeHayes & Yeading2.76 10.002 0 Lost-10.00 203.911.26 :wall Oh Dear! Another home lay down the pan...But we're still in profit...Just One bet on Saturday, and if that goes down we'll be in the red! :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 9, 2010 Author Share Posted October 9, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drawsandmore Posted October 10, 2010 Author Share Posted October 10, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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Drawsandmore Posted October 24, 2010 Author Share Posted October 24, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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