Vilamoura04 Posted September 10, 2010 Share Posted September 10, 2010 In the following post I will link to my Elo ratings for the infamously unpredictable Champioshiop fixtures this weekend. The ratings use a combination of elo rankings to give odds for matches referring to past data (over 5 seasons so far) I will also provide brief commentary Here is how to read the ratings spreadsheet Dates and home/away team columns speak for themselves. Match Rating (MR) column is the difference in Elo ratings between the home side and the away side. A positive rating means the home side is favoured, a negative ratings means the away side is favoured. No.games similar MR is the number of games with a similar match rating there have been in this division over the past 5 years (Championship) or 8 years (League 2). Home wins observed similar MR column is the percentage of those games which finished in a home win Home win best odds column is the best price on offer for the home win in this particular game Home win value column is the difference between the price offered and the estimated probability of the event occuring based on the number Home wins observed with similar MR. Anything below 100% is poor value, anything above is good value. Following columns are same as above for Draws and Away wins Recommended bet column is self explanatory. This will be where a team is considered the most likely winner of the match and its price is value (again based on observations of previous matches with similar match ratings) Stake advised column is the stake on a 0-10 points scale basis. So 0 points would be no bet, and 10 points would be maximum bet. Points are commonly used to indicate stake strength. A 'point' is a fixed unit of currency which can be whatever you are comfortable with, for example it could be £1, £10 or £100. The stake is calculated using a kelly criterion variant that I have found works well for me in terms of maximising profit and minimising risk. This model has returned 11% yeild and a 42% strike rate over the last five years in the very unpredictable Championship, and 12% and 40% strike rate over 8 years in League Two. This means that at least 4 in 10 bets will lose. Remember at all times that past performance is no guarantee of future success. Any bets are my own recommendations to myself, if you choose to follow you do so at your own risk. The decision to gamble and the money you risk is your decision and yours alone. I will not be held responsible for any losses incurred whatsoever howsoever incurred. Always bet within your means. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 10, 2010 Author Share Posted September 10, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Thsi weeks ratings are here http://backonthecoupon.blogspot.com/2010/09/championship-ratings-11910.html Conclusions: Most likely winners TV game In the Burnley v Preston TV game on saturday tea time, the ratings system thinks Burnley are 62% likely to win which makes the prices of 1.77 look acceptable. I would take this as a bet, the only thing putting me off is the derby factor and the fact that this TV games are often unpredictable in this unpredictable division - the team that on paper has no chance pulls off an unlikely win. Odds on shots are dangerous propositions in this division particularly when the camera's are on. I wouldnt touch the 1.77 myself. Other matches In the other games, Craig Bellamy's Cardiff side are heavily fancied to see off struggling Hull. Again the price is considered fair...just. Sheffield United and Doncaster are considered the two sides most likely to pick up a victory away from home, and indeed are picked by the selection system. System Selections The selection system recommends the following bets: Coventry at home to Leicester. The sky blues have a 100% home record while Leicester have yet to win. The only negative is Coventry's drifting price. Stake advised: 1.6 points @ 2.61 Sheffield United at Derby. United got their first win under Gary Speed last week, whilst Derby havent won since opening day. 2.3 points @ 3.24 Leeds at home to Swansea. Good home v poor away. 3.1 points @ 2.3 Portsmouth at home to Ipswich. Not wholly convinced about this one as Ipswich are clearly by far the more in-form side, but Pompey have brought in some reinforcements which might help. A worrying 2.8 points @ 3.1 Doncaster at Watford. Watford yet to win at home while Doncaster are brilliant one week shocking the next. 2.5 points @ 3.32 Im not convinced about the away win predictions, I think the homes are more accurate and profitable. I am going to keep an eye on them. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 11, 2010 Author Share Posted September 11, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship 2 winners from 5 at odds of 3.24 (sheffield united at derby) and 2.3 (Leeds), earning a profit of 2.3 points. The other three all drew. +2.3 points Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 13, 2010 Author Share Posted September 13, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Tuesdays ratings now up, but no bets recommended http://backonthecoupon.blogspot.com/2010/09/championship-ratings-140910.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 16, 2010 Author Share Posted September 16, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship This weekends bet...Norwich at Preston...3 points @ 2.8 In tomorrow nights TV game the ratings think Doncaster are the most likely winners and are value to get the win (but not high enough value to be a recommendation). These Championship TV games are very unpredictable however and I may go with the underdogs...will sleep on that one. In the Saturday tea time TV match the ratings marginally prefer the home side but its a very close match up and it thinks either team to win would be a value bet (it is very much against the draw The weekends ratings are here http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PfdNu8TMei4/TJJ1EfX4Z7I/AAAAAAAAABc/R6ZuaEFP2RE/s1600/ch_170910.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted September 18, 2010 Author Share Posted September 18, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Tidy. +7.7 points now Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted October 1, 2010 Author Share Posted October 1, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Cardiff at Barnsley 1.9 points @ 2.58 Nottm Forest at Doncaster 1.9 points @ 3.1 Reading at Preston 3 points @ 2.8 Taking on some decent home sides this weekend, which is a worry. Ratings on the blog http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_PfdNu8TMei4/TKYQkANDf1I/AAAAAAAAAB0/SESyZJnYHKM/s1600/Championshipratings021010.jpg[url=http://backonthecoupon.blogspot.com/] Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted October 1, 2010 Share Posted October 1, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Tidy. +7.7 points now Good start, Vilamoura04. Good luck with this weekends selections. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeepaul Posted October 6, 2010 Share Posted October 6, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship i like your blog with a weeks into the season, i'm planning to focus on league 1,2 & champs from previous experience and dos or donts you recommend also i'm using oxford united in fifa 11, hopefully i get to epl by year 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted October 14, 2010 Author Share Posted October 14, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Thanks mate. You'll see my review of Oxfords season so far from a better perspective on the blog. As a general rile. all three english leagues are difficult because theres simply not that much between the teams. If you can make any sort of profit from them you are doing well. My recommendations are a) Bet the price, not the team, and b) follow mark langdon in the racing post on a saturday, he knows his L1 and L2. -2.5 points for the ratings last time out takes profit down to +5 points. This weeks selections Nottm Forest 2.8 points @ 2.75 (I'd take draw no bet here) Scunthorpe 2.4 points @ 2.75 (also) Reading 2.2 points @ 2.14 Sheffield United 2.5 points @ 2.77 Ratings for all the games here: http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_PfdNu8TMei4/TLdp5zpQmQI/AAAAAAAAAB4/GIAEpav_V7k/s1600/ch_161010.jpg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted October 22, 2010 Author Share Posted October 22, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Poor week last week. Just Forest this week. 2.4 points @ 2.25. Ratings for all the games on the blog. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted November 6, 2010 Author Share Posted November 6, 2010 Re: Elo rankings - Championship Barnsley this week 2.3 points @ 3.13 (pinnacle) http://backonthecoupon.blogspot.com/2010/11/championship-ratings-061110.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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