Overs/Unders System Variables

[superchoward]

Evening all, I am currently trying to devise a system for betting on overs/unders in a variety of leagues based on statistics. I haven't tried to use a system in the past but I'm curious and determined to create one that is profitable (as has been proved possible in various threads). The first criteria for the system must be 'value'. It is the other criteria that are required that I'm having difficulty in selecting. There are so many variables in a game of football that not all can be considered. Some are more important than others and it is these variables that must be taken into account. I believe that the home and away records of the sides in question is of paramount importance although how many previous results should be applied? Cup games should not be considered due to different approaches that teams have towards cup competitions. Is it more important to consider how previous games finished over or under rather than comparing average goals per game? This may have an effect on selections as when a freak high scoring result is thrown into the equation it can have a significant effect on goals per game, however on an analysis of over/under it wouldn't. I believe it is important as to how a team has achieved a certain result. For instance if Blackpool had beaten Man Utd and Chelsea 3-0 in two consecutive games then Blackpool should get higher recommendation for scoring against a more formidable team. This works both ways e.g. if Chelsea beat West Brom 6-0 then this would be considered less of an achievement as if they beat Liverpool 4-0 (IMHO). What I'm getting at here is possibly a points system where teams score points in proportion to the quality of team they are playing. Should the selections the system throws up then be analysed in more detail for events such as players suspended/injured, freak results being taken into account etc or just bet blindly if the system has picked them? Should a fixed staking plan or progressive staking plan be used? I'm sure there are more things to be taken into account when trying to devise a system but I'm just trying to get some ideas together. Although the above statements have been posted as questions, I'm not looking for answers as there aren't any, just opinions. I thought it would be good to bounce some ideas off people and receive some advice/criticism as to the above. Thanks in advance for any input!

[superchoward]

Re: Overs/Unders System Variables Anyone?

[Grex]

Re: Overs/Unders System Variables Hi Superchoward. I wish you good luck with developing your system. I have tried in the past to come up with systems that try to take into account all sorts of variables. To be honest, I think you get better results by keeping your system SIMPLE. Perhaps it's because having too many variables, they tend to cancel each other out.

I believe it is important as to how a team has achieved a certain result. For instance if Blackpool had beaten Man Utd and Chelsea 3-0 in two consecutive games then Blackpool should get higher recommendation for scoring against a more formidable team. This works both ways e.g. if Chelsea beat West Brom 6-0 then this would be considered less of an achievement as if they beat Liverpool 4-0 (IMHO). What I'm getting at here is possibly a points system where teams score points in proportion to the quality of team they are playing.

I also had a system based on "value goals".... the number of goals scored and conceded by a team in a match was adjusted according to the quality of the opposition. It was developed for Asian Handicap predictions, and worked fairly well. I tried to "convert" it to Over/Under predictions..... and it was a miserable failure. This is just my personal experience, so don't let me put you off. Good luck.

[KThom]

Re: Overs/Unders System Variables Have you read any of the Kevin pullein (sp) books? That predicts various outcomes based on team strength. Had a brief dabble a year or so myself but haven't taken it any further

[superchoward]

Re: Overs/Unders System Variables Grex - thanks for that. I'm going to run a simple system to start off with where the average goals in the past 8 games are taken into account for home and away teams and then compare this with the odds to try and find value. As time goes on and I get a bit of basis for results I'll investigate where it is and isn't working. KThom - Not seen either of those books but I'll look into them. How did you find them, did you have much success?