Tennis - U.S Open Trading

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading Lets not focus on the risk chaps - is it more profitable? Thats what I'd like to establish, keeping in mind the pathetically short odds of the first few rounds. If it is then it is better than trading or betting individual matches as you have already stated the risk is the same. Therefore if it is more profitable then xchange was right. And also look at it this way, if the risk of T1 and T2 are the same but you stand to win more from T2, the risk is technically the same but at least T2 is worth risking for whereas T1 is not. Make sense? So lets see if its more profitable before we shed anymore tears over the risk. Hoot hoot. :puke

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

How does this compare to just laying the player you think will lose?

You do not need a specific player to lose, you only need one of the 3 to lose. So if the player you think will lose actually wins you could get lucky and one of the other 2 might lose. The strategy is only valid if you think there's a reasonable chance of that happening. If you think just one has a chance of losing and the other 2 are sure winners then there's no point and you are probably better off laying the one player.

How big will your loss be if a player outside the top four wins the tournament after you shift your loss to the rest of the field?

No way to predict beforehand, you need to look at that on a case by case basis.

does anyone have any data to support these strategies?

Not that i know of although it is possible to collect the data with automated means. Might actually get around to it one day some day (sorry not a priority). All these "strategies" depend on the prices you can get and that depends on your individual situation. Can you follow the markets 24/7 ? are you limited to betting during just 1 hour a day, do you have some automated tools like bots to bet for you given certain conditions, etc.. etc... It really is up to the individual to determine what to go for. But there is a wide variety of strategies possible. All comes down to finding the right risk/potential profit balance and value. That is greatly in the eye of the beholder. If nothing else consider these strategies a learning opportunity. Just pick something, write down what you think will happen (to the odds), then paper trade. It will at least give you some insight in how the markets work. Personally i have found very little difference in the actual profit that can be made. The markets move in conjuction in such a way there really is little difference either way.

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading Federer can currently be traded out at 2.7 on Betfair. That is a 22.87% yield on xchanges' initial back. Therefore more profitable than backing and probably easier than trading his early games individually. Risk? :puke I think this is a good, simple method of trading. xchange nice one. :clap

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

Risk?

Your point being ?

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading I take it you mean to say "just ignore the risk", to put it in a nice way. Very well, i shall illustrate what it is you are dismissing so blatently... these are the current odds on another player, one of the top 4 you can guess which one, the situation is just as easily possible, now with Federer you backed at 4 and are able to lay at 2.7 here the person backing the player on his matches would be showing a profit, after all the player is still in the tournament and therefore did win his matches so far, you on the other hand would be forced to trade out at a loss as you backed at 4.00 and need to lay around 5.00 please do continue ignoring the risk

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading Right, gonna have a bit of fun now, not trying to prove any point, just a bit of fun. Nadal is playing Istomen, odds are at 1.06 to back on the match, outright market is showing 5.3 to win the tournament. I'm laying Nadal to win his match 52 @ 1.07 he loses i gain +49.40 he wins i'm out -3.64 on the outright market i'm backing Nadal 49.40 @ 5.3 he loses i lose -49.40 and get out break even he wins the odds should go down, IF the odds outright go down to at least 4.9 i'll be able to make a profit, if the odds stay above 4.9 i'll need to take a loss. I'm hoping for one of his killer evenings :lol Joking aside if he does win i really can't believe the odds will stay above 4.9 and that for me makes it a good bet. Then again i am a Nadal fan... go Rafa :cow

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading Actually Djokovic is playing tonight and tomorrow Murray is playing before Nadal so they will influence the price as well. I may not be around myself so if you have the opportunity could someone please check and post the price on Nadal right after the match from Djokovic and Murray. Very curious if there's much change.

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

Federer can currently be traded out at 2.7 on Betfair. That is a 22.87% yield on xchanges' initial back. Therefore more profitable than backing and probably easier than trading his early games individually. Risk? :puke I think this is a good, simple method of trading. xchange nice one. :clap

The 6th, 7th, 9th, 11th and 15th seeded players have all be knocked out, so that will shorted federer's odds quite a bit. Had all the seeded players qualified for the next round, you would not have seen much change in the odds. While I agree you make more money than just backing federer to win his matches, the risks are the same. Backing Federer in the Winners market, is in effect laying the other top seeded players in their matches. Does anyone know how the winners market is priced up?

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

Actually Djokovic is playing tonight and tomorrow Murray is playing before Nadal so they will influence the price as well. I may not be around myself so if you have the opportunity could someone please check and post the price on Nadal right after the match from Djokovic and Murray. Very curious if there's much change.

pre match. Winner Market Roger Federer 2.7 - 2.72 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4 Novak Djokovic 18.5 - 19 ..... Dustin Brown 1000 - Philipp Petzschner 1000 - Second Round Match. 3 sep 1.30 : Petzachner (7.6 - 8) v Djokovic (1.14 - 1.15) 3 sep 19:30 : Murray (1.02 - 1.03) v Brown ( 40 - 42)

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading thanks Clay, immediately post Djokovic match, he won it 3-0 but it was a lot closer that you might think for that score, note it is the middle of the night so not many people about to be doing some betting Winner Market Roger Federer 2.7 - 2.72 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4 Novak Djokovic 18 - 19.5 that didn't do much now did it :lol

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

I take it you mean to say "just ignore the risk", to put it in a nice way. Very well, i shall illustrate what it is you are dismissing so blatently... these are the current odds on another player, one of the top 4 you can guess which one, the situation is just as easily possible, now with Federer you backed at 4 and are able to lay at 2.7 here the person backing the player on his matches would be showing a profit, after all the player is still in the tournament and therefore did win his matches so far, you on the other hand would be forced to trade out at a loss as you backed at 4.00 and need to lay around 5.00 please do continue ignoring the risk

I do mean ignore the risk. Not because it doesn't matter but because risk is risk and it is always there. Providing I am not staking beyond my means I accept it and don't let it bother me. Plus, backing a favourate to win a tournament while planning to trade out is pretty low on the risk scale. I am bit confused by the rest of you comment, which player are you referring too?

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

Right, gonna have a bit of fun now, not trying to prove any point, just a bit of fun. Nadal is playing Istomen, odds are at 1.06 to back on the match, outright market is showing 5.3 to win the tournament. I'm laying Nadal to win his match 52 @ 1.07 he loses i gain +49.40 he wins i'm out -3.64 on the outright market i'm backing Nadal 49.40 @ 5.3 he loses i lose -49.40 and get out break even he wins the odds should go down, IF the odds outright go down to at least 4.9 i'll be able to make a profit, if the odds stay above 4.9 i'll need to take a loss. I'm hoping for one of his killer evenings :lol Joking aside if he does win i really can't believe the odds will stay above 4.9 and that for me makes it a good bet. Then again i am a Nadal fan... go Rafa :cow

I like this method and I can see how you have accounted for the risk of him going out. This certainly makes more sense. :dude If he wins and his odds dont drop below 4.9 why would you need to take a loss? Could you not just lay in the next game too? You'd probably have to lay at a lesser stake but in game you could make a decision to trade out on the winners market and take the lay profit? Providing the trade loss is smaller than the lay amount then you still profit. The problem here I guess would be in trading out at the right moment. You'd have to feel that Rafa was going to lose but try and trade out before the winners market skyrockets. Tricky.

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

The 6th, 7th, 9th, 11th and 15th seeded players have all be knocked out, so that will shorted federer's odds quite a bit. Had all the seeded players qualified for the next round, you would not have seen much change in the odds. While I agree you make more money than just backing federer to win his matches, the risks are the same. Backing Federer in the Winners market, is in effect laying the other top seeded players in their matches. Does anyone know how the winners market is priced up?

The fact it is more profitable makes the risk more worth taking. (not less risky :ok)

[Tannus Rankus]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

thanks Clay, immediately post Djokovic match, he won it 3-0 but it was a lot closer that you might think for that score, note it is the middle of the night so not many people about to be doing some betting Winner Market Roger Federer 2.7 - 2.72 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4 Novak Djokovic 18 - 19.5 that didn't do much now did it :lol

By your own reasoning, by ttime these two come to play next, more seeded players will have gone out and the odds will probably have shortened.

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

I am bit confused by the rest of you comment, which player are you referring too?

The graph posted belongs to Nadal. Despite quite a few seeded players being knocked out, he continues to drift.

[flower567]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading hi exchange, when I read yr first post on trading I checked the us open draw - best i could find was robin soederling - I backed him at odds of 34 seeing his first real and heavy opponent could be federer in the quarter final - checking history i found that soederlings best result in the us open was a quarter final - gives me a chance to trade out right before he would/could face federer. right now the odds of soederling (after his win against dent are at 25 - let`s hope that he wins his next game against Nishikori - odds would again drop a little bit - would give me a decent profit. on the womens side I have back wosniaki at 8.8 - let`s hope she reaches the semis or even the final - good way to make a decent profit with a low risk. :hope

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

hi exchange, when I read yr first post on trading I checked the us open draw - best i could find was robin soederling - I backed him at odds of 34 seeing his first real and heavy opponent could be federer in the quarter final - checking history i found that soederlings best result in the us open was a quarter final - gives me a chance to trade out right before he would/could face federer. right now the odds of soederling (after his win against dent are at 25 - let`s hope that he wins his next game against Nishikori - odds would again drop a little bit - would give me a decent profit. on the womens side I have back wosniaki at 8.8 - let`s hope she reaches the semis or even the final - good way to make a decent profit with a low risk. :hope

I think your underestimating the luck factor. The 6, 9 and 11th seeded players have been knocked out, they all happen to be in Federer/Soederling side of the draw. Had the exits happen in Nadal/Murray side, you may have seen Federer/Soederling drifting not shortening. Until more data is produced, I think its premature to call this a low risk strategy. Also, Soederling only accounts for 3% of the money traded in the winners market, so that may increase the risks if you want to trade out later. It will limit the amount of money you can move through the market.

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

The fact it is more profitable makes the risk more worth taking.

Now you totally contradict yourself. Here you are saying you actually do consider the risk and decide the additional risk is worth taken considering the potential higher profit. Fair enough. Problem is there is no real evidence at this point in time this actually is more profitable. (compared to any other variation of betting or trading) The additional profit made on those occasions the price goes the Federer way will be eaten up by the loss taken on the occasions the price goes the Nadal way. You cannot draw any conclusion until you've collected data on all markets on a series of occasions. The more the better but certainly not 1.

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

If he wins and his odds dont drop below 4.9 why would you need to take a loss? Could you not just lay in the next game too? You'd probably have to lay at a lesser stake but in game you could make a decision to trade out on the winners market and take the lay profit? Providing the trade loss is smaller than the lay amount then you still profit. The problem here I guess would be in trading out at the right moment.

Lets say for arguments sake the price drops to 5.1 only. I do have the option to let it ride, lay him in his next game and hope again for the odds outright to drop below a certain point. But i think it would be a pretty bad strategy as the starting odds are already against me. Not only would i need the odds to drop enough to cover the loss on that next match but in addition they need to drop enough to make up for the loss from the first match , the difference between 5.1 and 4.9 . It greatly depends on the odds of that next match but it doesn't sound appealing. Thing to remember is this: if you accept for a moment the assumption that all markets operate at 100% efficiency to be true, then you need to find an edge in the odds movements sufficiently high to overcome the 5% commission on BOTH makets. Then you need to make a profit on top of that. I believe based on my years of experience (*cough*cough* ;)) that the odds movements will on average not be sufficient to cover the 2x5% commission. A belief which of course remains to be tested by real life data.

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

thanks Clay, immediately post Djokovic match, he won it 3-0 but it was a lot closer that you might think for that score, note it is the middle of the night so not many people about to be doing some betting Winner Market Roger Federer 2.7 - 2.72 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4 Novak Djokovic 18 - 19.5 that didn't do much now did it :lol

Murray match about to start. Winner Market Roger Federer 2.74 - 2.76 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.90 - 3.95 Novak Djokovic 18.5 - 19.5

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

Murray match about to start. Winner Market Roger Federer 2.74 - 2.76 Rafael Nadal 5.2 - 5.3 Andy Murray 3.90 - 3.95 Novak Djokovic 18.5 - 19.5

Murray match over. easy win for Murray. Winner Market Roger Federer 2.76 - 2.78 Rafael Nadal 5.3 - 5.4 Andy Murray 3.80 - 3.85 Novak Djokovic 18.5 - 19.5

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading Nadal about to start, no change to the prices outright, did see Nadal at 1.10 for a while (to win against Istomen where i layed at 1.07), not looking too promising for my trade is it :lol i shall let the events roll as intended and leave the outcome to become part of history...

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading right after Nadal match Roger Federer 2.78 - 2.80 Rafael Nadal 4.7 - 4.9 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4.00 Novak Djokovic 19 - 20 waiting to get matched at 4.7 or else whatever will be available tomorrow.

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading well i did get matched at 4.7 overnight, but now the price seems to be hovering around 4.9 Roger Federer 2.86 - 2.88 Rafael Nadal 4.8 - 4.9 - 5.0 Andy Murray 3.95 - 4.00 Novak Djokovic 19.5 - 20 So lost -3.64 on the match, showing a profit all around outright of +5.99 = +2.35 on the trade, waheey. If i had been unable to place the bet right after the match i would have to have taken the current price at 4.9 which would have meant +3.83 = +0.19 on the trade, call that break even. So out of the 3 matches recorded here 2 didn't cause any substantial price move, one did make the price move 5.3 to 4.9 but that is only just enough to overcome the 2x5% commission and break even. don't ya just love it when a plan comes together :lol

[clay747]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading I see 5 players retired during the tournament. is that normal? would be a big loss if you had backed one of them in the winners market. I see Federer has drifted to 2.86 from 2.7, without ever stepping on court. I assume this is because of progress by other seeded players?

[Datapunter]

Re: Tennis - U.S Open Trading

I assume this is because of progress by other seeded players?

Well unless there was something in the news that he fell down some stairs the shift must be due to the results of other players. But there are a lot of factors involved. Compare it to a horse race where prices change constantly. Some because money is being placed on particular horses. But others just because they react to those as when prices drop on horse X at some point you will get an arbitrage opportunity and that gets swooped up by the bots inevitably causing other prices to shift as well. The "market" will adjust and always attempt to get a 100% book again. Another example is the correct score markt in football. Do you really think there's loads of people out there betting on all those possible scores constantly ? Nope, there will be a betting crowd betting on a range of scores, the prices on the other outcomes shift due to the bots at work skimming every 0.0001% they can find. Best illustration of that is that when a goal is scored the 0-0 immediately goes to 1000.00 with some volume. That's the effect of bots placing bets at a 100%+ book, they must place money on every outcome in order to have a 100%+ book, (or whatever %+) market. Same effect on this tennis outright market. If you can manage to predict it you'll be loaded in no time. But the few numbers recorded here already indicate it's not all that easy.