Lars' Betting Thread - Mk 2

[Lars]

After some deliberation, I've decided to start my own thread on here again. Last time I had some success, but decided to stop with it as I was going to University anyway. Summer holiday's now and besides, when term starts I should have more time than last year to do this sort of thing. I had a good month in July, so hoping for more of the same this time around. I also feel that my bets on here aren't as organised as some people's, and trying to alter that. My own bets are not the only part of my portfolio, I regularly get good inside information from a source I pay a nominal amount to, to this scale I'll be using I'm just about +400pts in profit. However, these selections of course will not be posted up. They may be some overlap, however. Monday 5th August 3:40 Haydock UPHOLD; Built on decent run fto in a decent Newmarket maiden as a 2yo with an easy success at Nottingham on easy ground, having been backed in from 7/1 to 100/30; winning by 7l. Maybe not the greatest maiden with 2nd place filled by 200/1 shot but the 4th place horse won easily off a mark of 68 and Mushreq (5th) was competitive off a mark of 83 so a mark of 87 for Uphold could be quite lenient. Barry Hills has a 26% SR over past two weeks and his horses run especially well here. Winston rides the track better than most (only Spencer has a slightly better strike rate of jockeys in this race) and this unexposed horse could be a listed prospect. 1pt EW @ 6/1 Stan James BOG 4:10 Haydock HAYZOOM; 4 runs to date, Maiden success on second start, shaped that day that 10f was inadequate and the 12f today would suit much better. This clarified by Sandown run, staying on strongly over 10f. Highly tried in King George V at Ascot, and was outclassed that day. Interestingly dropped 1lb from his Sandown run to a mark of 79, down to a reasonable level again and trainers 25% SR at this track in 3yo handicaps is also interesting. 0.3pts EW @ 12/1 Victor Chandler BOG 4:40 Haydock STARKAT; Return to turf should help, having been raced on all-weather in last two starts. is still a maiden but best runs have come on easier ground. Ran poorly at Wolv. last time but excuses (hampered and lost momentum) and was heavily backed. Trainer doesn't bring that many here which is interesting, and Spencer booked a positive move. Much more unexposed than many of these and if turf brings improvement that I think it might, should be bang there. 0.4pt EW @ 6/1 Ladbrokes BOG

[Lars]

Re: Lars' Betting Thread - Mk 2 Just the one more for tonight I feel. 6:10 Sandown I quite like the chances of Henry Candy's Felsham to appreciate the drop back in trip to 5f, and think this colt may be quick enough to take this race. Over 5f, has raced four times and won twice, with placed efforts in the other two starts. One of those seconds came behind the extremely useful Citrus Star. Was well backed in his first 3yo start in April, and won with a little bit in hand. Raised 6lbs for that effort, and was stepped up to 6f. Has performed creditably in two of his last starts since his Bath victory, and was only 3.25L behind a decent Hannon horse. From that run, he looked to have a decent turn of foot, but not the stamina to carry on the run, as he looked a bit one-paced in the last half furlong. For me, the horse should be poised nearer the front, and I expect that may be the case with Fergus Sweeney on board, who often sends a horse to the front (in my experience). Ground should not be a problem, as has run well on all surfaces. Although the Bath win came on firm ground, to me, he looked a little awkward on a faster surface and this "good" ground should help. Henry Candy's record at Sandown is very solid too, with 23.5% strike rate in these 3yo handicaps over the past few seasons, and when teaming up with Fergus Sweeney at Sandown, they have a 22.2% record. 5/1 is a perfectly decent price, and has a few nibbles of support with some bookmakers. Hopefully the dead eight will remain. 0.5pt EW @ 5/1 Bet365 BOG