Chester 09/07

[Lars]

18:40 Chester Although the form from Apprentice handicap winners is often a falsehood, for one reason or another, I do think Feeling Fresh has a good opportunity to follow his victory in such race last week over 6f. Getting the huge negative out of the way, it's the draw. Draw out in the car park, and with such a course as Chester, this may put people off. Upped a furlong from it's apprentice race success which won't bother this horse at all, as he won over a mile here only 2 weeks ago. Often misses the break is dropped in, so the draw won't be too much of a hindrance as it's not like it is a horse that demands to be at the front. Silvestre de Sousa and Paul Green team up and they have an above average record together, with (from what I can find) a strike-rate of 23.1% when they do combine. Price is inflated due to the draw, but this one can go close. Feeling Fresh : 0.5pt EW @ 6/1 Victor Chandler BOG. 19:10 Chester Tawaabb has been running at a much higher level than this, his last run coming in a listed Sandown contest. Not disgraced by any means, finishing less than 2 lengths behind and is dropped down to a class two handicap tonight. Draw will be ideal and the drop in class will be too. First time Visor should bring some improvement and the short break may revitalise the horse. Not got the greatest strike rate over the minimum trip but I'm expecting a big run. Tawaabb 1pt Win @ 4/1 Ladbrokes BOG 19:40 Chester Three market principles, and I'm giving the nod to Cultivar who can run a big race. Market seems to be correct in identifying the three most likely winners who are separated by hardly anything in the betting. Layla's Lexi has been on an upwards curve since joining Ian Williams but I feel that will end shortly, and the Ian Williams yard is a bit out of sorts at present. Dolphin Rock has been another improving, with a game victory at Haydock lto. Not quite sure though if the extra 2f will be a great idea and doubts on whether the horse will stay, I'll oppose. This leaves Cultivar, who is dropped two classes, after competing in a hot race at York won by Rebel Soldier. Probably not good enough yet to be competing at that sort of level, but this is more it's sort of thing. Will definitely stay and it's victory at Haydock two starts ago sets the standard here I feel, anything like a run such as that and it should win. Cultivar: 1pt Win @ 5/2 Bet365 21:20 Chester Another one with an outside draw but this should not matter too much with the race being over 12f but I think that Inspirina can follow up the success here almost 2 weeks ago with another victory. Raised 4lbs for that win when making all and seems a tough order on paper whether he can follow up, but from his performance lto, I think it's a distinct possibility. Loves it round here at Chester and the trainer/jockey partnership is very strong, with 2 wins out of 3. A definite bet at a decent price. Inspirina 0.5pt EW @ 11/2 Victor Chandler