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Trusting the markets in Over/Under

Jenspm
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Jenspm

Jenspm

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Thought I'd try something out. It's probably been done before but meh, might as well. Basically, I try to jump on bets when a single bookie stands out from the market. I will only be judging by the market, no other research. Of course, I'll have to restrict myself to matches where several bookies offer over/under bets. Atm, I've set the minimum to seven major bookies (ie local bookies won't count). I don't have a script that automaticaly picks these bets for me, and to save myself from having to dig through every single match that's on every day, I'll restrict myself to matches where bet365 is the stand-out bookie. Yes, this is somewhat inspired by slappy :) I'll be betting myself for added exitement, at very small stakes. For the sake of keeping score in the thread, these will be referred to as level 1pt stakes.

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slapdash

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under 2.5 #2 finished 2-0 and guarantees a profit from the first three bets. :clap By the way, one of the conditions I use for my Bet365 horseracing bets is that the Bet365 price should be better than the lay odds on Betfair. I don't know how often this will hold for your bets (it didn't for the first two when I looked, but I didn't see the third bet until it was too late to check). It might be worth keeping a record of which bets (if any) it does apply to.

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under 2.5

#2 finished 2-0 and guarantees a profit from the first three bets. :clap By the way, one of the conditions I use for my Bet365 horseracing bets is that the Bet365 price should be better than the lay odds on Betfair. I don't know how often this will hold for your bets (it didn't for the first two when I looked, but I didn't see the third bet until it was too late to check). It might be worth keeping a record of which bets (if any) it does apply to.
cheers, yeah, a nice start :) Number one is a loser sadly, as F91 take a 2-1 lead. Mostar 1-0 up and the bet still lives. I'll take that into consideration. Sadly, the bets I had had little liquidity at Betfair, I think there was an 0.3 difference in the back/lay odds. I don't take bet365 only if they have the best odds btw, but if the odds represent value compared to the avg. percentages the other bookies have given the outcome.
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slapdash

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under 2.5

Sadly' date=' the bets I had had little liquidity at Betfair, I think there was an 0.3 difference in the back/lay odds.[/quote'] It will probably be different when it comes to "proper" football (i.e., between teams I've actually heard of :lol). For the record, the criteria I use (for win bets, it's a bit more complicated for each-way bets) are pretty much: (a) Odds of 4/1 or less (won't be relevant for you). (b) Bet365 have best odds (equal best is OK). © Bet365 odds are better than lay odds on Betfair. Though I sometimes use judgement if there's low liquidity on Betfair and these criteria are almost, but not quite met. For example, I'll look at whether there has been any trading at lower odds on Betfair. Possibly © will be satisfied a lot less for football, just because the timescale over which betting takes place, and prices get put up, is longer, so it's easier for bookies to keep their odds in line?
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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under 2.5 Adding Unibet as a bookie to add a few more (very few, as they rarely ever top the odds), and decided to try a few bets on MLB and recording them seprately, because, to be quite honest, I'm a bit bored atm :rollin so, MLB #1 - Washington Nationals v San Diego Padres: Over 7.5 @ 1.95 - unibet

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under Can't find anything atm, though odds change all the time so something might show up later on. Time to update the stats while they're still positive, me thinks. MLB Bets: 1 Wins: 1 P/L: +0.95 Yield: 95% Total Bets: 4 Wins: 3 P/L: +3.50 Yield: 88% I'll keep an eye out on the odds..

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under Yay, found one. #5 - FC Zurich v OB Odense: Under 2.5 @ 2.38 - bet365 I won't be betting on this personally, as I already have money on over 3 in this match. :unsure But it fits the system, so it will be recorded.

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under Tennis bet lost, and tennis is now removed from the system as over/under there is different to other sports, as it varies depending on the dominance of a favourite. You can go over/under in football or baseball and not be dependant on an upset (2-0 to the favourite in football isn't an 'upset'), while Nadal goin to a five-setter against a nobody would. As for the baseball, #2 is a winner and #3 loses, thus we end at nill. Stat updates to come later tonight.

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allthethings

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under I think I can offer some insights into this strategy. Several years ago I started a thread about "Best-Priced Overs." I started taking one each Saturday in the three lowest English leagues that my book posted odds for...Leagues One and Two, and Conference. The first five or six weeks were amazing...it went something like 32-6 before tailing off, and I seem to have just caught it right. One of the problems was, when should you play them? Was it better to watch the market to see what game emerged as the best-priced overs, or was it best to take it early? What I decided after watching for a long time was that the first movement was better than late movement. The reason is that the initial line movement was based purely on reputation, and couldn't take into account lineups, late knocks in practice, flu in the squad, weather...and then also, maybe it was based on gut reaction rather than a lot of thinking, which is dangerous when dealing with something as random as total goals. Anyway, through this process I decided that the best-priced anything was just as good as the best-priced overs, so I started taking the best-priced side and the best-priced total, as early as I could find them. This ran about 50-50 for four months or so, and then I tallied everything up to see if there were any trends. Let me just repeat what these bets were...the best-priced side on the handicap line (my book doesn't carry multiple odds, which makes it easy). This means that on a given day, my side might be +1.5 or -1 or DNB. On the totals, it didn't matter whether the line was U2, O2.5 or O3...whatever offered the best return. If there were two games with the same odds, I played them both; if there were four games I skipped it. What I found was that among sides, the worst by far was taking the underdog on the DNB line. Those teams went 23-42 with 32 pushes (meaning the games ended in a draw and I got my money back). The favorites didn't win 50% of the games, but the dogs didn't either, and I lost money. In fact, there was only one situation that produced a profit: Teams favored by one goal (-1). Again, this was when the market was heavily the other way (+1, say 1.7). These games went 13-10 with 9 pushes. In turns out that it's not so much totals that are profitable, but unders...and you don't have to win half of them to profit, since you are usually getting these at 2.1 to 2.2. Here's the entire list, with the profitable situations highlighted: O2 1-0, 1 push O2.5 52-53 O3 14-25, 10 pushes U2 14-20, 11 pushes U2.5 43-33 U3+ 12-4, 3 pushes Those unders are really hard to play against the market...if you looked at the stats or current form you'd never play them. But they're a solid bet. I think it's interesting to look at the O/U3 lines. If the game starts out priced at O2.5 and the market right at the outset is solidly on the overs, unders is the value bet. But if the market immediately prices the line up to O3, the value is the other way. Too many people think, "Oh well, if it ends 3 I'll get a push, so no harm done." But getting to 4 goals is not easy at all, especially if one team doesn't do its part. Good luck with it. A

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allthethings

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under I should mention today's bets have gone the opposite way... VPS/MyPa O2.5...lucky 93rd minute winner Norrkoping/Trollhatten O3...3-0 Norrkoping late...push or win Alta/Moss U3...2-1 at 40'. Look at the stats for this game...it made me sick putting my money on it... Tomorrow: Hammarby -1 @ 2.28

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under allthethings: interesting, but not the same as what I'm doing here I think. As far as I understood, you took the Asian/Over/Under with the highest odds on a given day? What I'm doing is find out if bet365 or unibet give odds that are above the market's predicted percentages. Example, in the MLB match just posted, the market is at around 53/47 for over/under. That gives value to odds of 2.15 supplied at bet365. Furthermore, betfair's lay odds are 2.14, which fulfills slappy's criteria as well.

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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under

Massive value in this one according to the markets.. Baseball #4 - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles: Over 9.5 @ 2.30 - bet365
Silly bet365, the value is now in the unders.. Baseball #6 - Texas Rangers v Baltimore Orioles: Under 9.5 @ 2.15 Guaranteed profit, but no fancy staking, so it's either +0.15 or +0.30.
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allthethings

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under

allthethings: interesting, but not the same as what I'm doing here I think. As far as I understood, you took the Asian/Over/Under with the highest odds on a given day? What I'm doing is find out if bet365 or unibet give odds that are above the market's predicted percentages. Example, in the MLB match just posted, the market is at around 53/47 for over/under. That gives value to odds of 2.15 supplied at bet365. Furthermore, betfair's lay odds are 2.14, which fulfills slappy's criteria as well.
I know they're not the same...I just think in general that the market for overs/unders offers a great deal of value because the results appear fairly random. Anyway...good luck with it.
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Jenspm

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Re: Trusting the markets in Over/Under Baseball #5 won, so that's +1.15. #4 and #6 are guaranteed profit as mentioned, but it looks to be going under. I have now decided to consentrate on baseball, purely due to the nature of the game when it comes to run-count. I will thus include all bookmakers, and have adjusted the rules a bit.. Will of course continue to post picks every day - let's hope for cotinued profit ;)

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