Best staking plan for this scenario?

[Broch]

I have found that if i play following some specific criterias i can bet at odds 2,0 and win 70 % of the time. And that is great. But now i need to know what is the best "staking plan to get the most money out of it?

[DM99]

Re: Best staking plan for this scenario?

I have found that if i play following some specific criterias i can bet at odds 2,0 and win 70 % of the time. And that is great. But now i need to know what is the best "staking plan to get the most money out of it?

Finding something that pays off evens but wins 70% of the time means you will become a millionaire very, very quickly. ;) The best staking is the Kelly formula. In this case, as you are betting at evens, the math is easy: 0.7 - 0.3 = 0.4, so you should stake 40% of your bank on each bet. If you want to reduce volatility, then you are better off staking 2/3rds, or 27% each bet. which gives 90% of the expected full Kelly bet expectation but drastically smooths out the bankroll swings.

[Lardonio]

Re: Best staking plan for this scenario?

Finding something that pays off evens but wins 70% of the time means you will become a millionaire very, very quickly. ;) The best staking is the Kelly formula. In this case, as you are betting at evens, the math is easy: 0.7 - 0.3 = 0.4, so you should stake 40% of your bank on each bet. If you want to reduce volatility, then you are better off staking 2/3rds, or 27% each bet. which gives 90% of the expected full Kelly bet expectation but drastically smooths out the bankroll swings.

Staking 40% of your bank on each bet with a 70% expectancy of winning could very quickly lead to bankruptcy and would be the only way to avoid getting rich with a 'odds 2, winning percentage 70%' scenario... It's way to high. If the odds 2, win% 70 is correct (which I am 99,9% sure it isn't long-term) then the only thing that could stop you from becoming a millionaire is taking too much risk.