HELP NEEDED WITH POISSON DISTRIBUTION

[TopSavings]

Hello All, Not been on here for a while but thought it'd be the best place to get a few question answered on the above and it's uses. For the last three days I've been reading up on using PD to assist in getting value for my predictions. I must've read at least ten pages worth of correct score betting, touchdowns in the NFL, spread betting and 1X2 betting, but... I am personally quite interested in using the distribution table to see if my over/under picks are actually offering me value based on the combined total goals of teams (which takes into account attacking, defence, league position, etc) which I have been using with some success of late even without the arrival (to me!) of this table. However, the discovery of PD and online articles based on it's merits in football betting for value has made me start doubting a few things, so anybody that can help me with the following issue, that would be great :ok If I have as selection process that leads me to think that there are going to be OVER 2.5 goals using my own methods and I enter the avg goals into a PD table, I am presuming I should ONLY bet on this game if 1 divided the percentage of that happening (to work out the true odds), works in my favour...? eg. i quite fancy a game to be over 2.5 based on what I can see in recent form and the total goals of the teams and relative league positions, etc. (let's say my conclusions bring me to the figure of 2.82. Normally, I would have a bet on over if I personally think it's a good price. BUT Once I have enetered this value and come up with 0.465% for UNDER 2.5 and 0.535% for OVER 2.5, I should be looking at odds of no less than 1.86 (1/0.535). So, in theory, the PD table has made up my mind for me as the price on over was actually 1.65 therefore I'm 0.18 away from getting level value, let alone an edge! IS THIS RIGHT SO FAR??? DOES THIS MEAN I SHOULD BACK UNDER THOUGH? :unsure I suppose my questions is... ARE PEOPLE USING THIS TABLE TO LITERALLY MAKE UP THEIR MINDS WHAT THE BEST BET IS, OR TO JUST AVOID BETS THAT AREN'T VALUE? THERE'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE!!! What I'm getting at is, I could end up handicapping EVERY game on EVERY day (which would take about ten hours) and just let the PD table make up my bets for me based on the games with the best edge. But what if I started doing that and my success rate went below what it is already, just because I had stumbled across this table? (The game finished 1-1 by the way and I didn't have a bet as I got really confused. Normally I would have backed over and obviously quite pleased I didn't, but now confused as to weather I should've gone under, even though my system is an overs system) Bloody hell, mind boggling! :wall Thanks in advance and sorry about the ramblings :zzz Ben.

[relf]

Re: HELP NEEDED WITH POISSON DISTRIBUTION

Once I have enetered this value and come up with 0.465% for UNDER 2.5 and 0.535% for OVER 2.5, I should be looking at odds of no less than 1.86 (1/0.535). So, in theory, the PD table has made up my mind for me as the price on over was actually 1.65 therefore I'm 0.18 away from getting level value, let alone an edge! IS THIS RIGHT SO FAR??? DOES THIS MEAN I SHOULD BACK UNDER THOUGH? :unsure I suppose my questions is... ARE PEOPLE USING THIS TABLE TO LITERALLY MAKE UP THEIR MINDS WHAT THE BEST BET IS, OR TO JUST AVOID BETS THAT AREN'T VALUE? THERE'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE!!! What I'm getting at is, I could end up handicapping EVERY game on EVERY day (which would take about ten hours) and just let the PD table make up my bets for me based on the games with the best edge. But what if I started doing that and my success rate went below what it is already, just because I had stumbled across this table?

Pardon if I missed out on some of your questions. 1) Having no value in Overs doesn't mean that there's value in Unders. Bookies have their own 'house advantage'. For example, if the odds for Unders is 1.90, and Overs 1.95, and your PD rates them 50-50. Both 1.90 for Unders and 1.95 for Overs are of no value because they are less than 2.00. In short, just do the 1/odds calculations everytime you want to bet on something. 2) And yes, I believe there are people who purely use systems to decide on what to bet. Using systems has its own pros and cons. The good point is that it offers an objective view such that you are not swayed by personal bias or impulse thinking. But the downside is, it doesn't factor in many elements, like the selection of players, or a key player being injured/suspended, or even the weather, etc. One recommendation is to strike a balance with the system and your personal gauge. 3) If the PD turns to have a lower success rate, there could be a few reasons. One could be fluctuation, which means it might be due to bad luck. However, if this persists after a considerable amount of selections, you might want to review the PD and take a look at the data that is being used. Perhaps there might be some inaccuracies or things that you overlooked.

[mcgin]

Re: HELP NEEDED WITH POISSON DISTRIBUTION TS, Have a read of this post, it's not exactly what your after, but along the same lines, so it might help -> http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f23/calculating-possibility-draw-90646/#post1513412 The thing to bear in mind is that there is an assumption with the Poisson model that the two teams are of similar skill level (each team is equally likely to score the next goal at any given point in time), when it's not the model needs to be adjusted in some way (don't ask me how, I haven't gotten too deep into it.)

[TopSavings]

Re: HELP NEEDED WITH POISSON DISTRIBUTION Thanks for your replies fellas, some interesting points there. I appreciate that and will look into this further.... TS

[TopSavings]

Re: HELP NEEDED WITH POISSON DISTRIBUTION Can I add fuel to the fire and post an example of a game today for people's thoughts...? Singapore league, 257 goals so far in 110 matches which is an avg of 2.336 GPG (goals per game) and 1.168 GPGPT (goals per game per team). I won't go into how I did it (unless people think it would help?), but I rate todays game between ETOILE and GOMBAK as having 2.10 goals today. If we whack this value in the PD table, we can see that over 2.5 is 0.350% (2.86 miniumum odds) and under 2.5 is 0.650% (1.54 miniumum odds). Now, if we look at the best prices available for over/under 2.5 today, we can get +2.5 @ 1.90 with B365 and -2.5 @ 2.02 with Nordic :D So, what I am asking I suppose is, even though my system is an OVER 1.5 and 2.5 system, calculating this particular game has thrown up an almighty +0.49 edge on the under 2.5 side, and therefore should I back it...? I won't invest any money today but interesting to see that over is the favourite here between two teams who hardly concede. Any thoughts? ps. I am well aware that my calculated asverage for the game will massively sway the projected odds with different methods, but this is a method which has worked well in the past for me. I could add more details if asked.... pss. Just noticed VC offerering a massive :lol 1.33 on under 3.5 goals, and using the PD table, we need minimum odds of only 1.19 using the above calculations. So again, an edge of +0.14 points... hmmmm :unsure