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AFL Rd. 10.


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Things that surprised me (read: I got wrong :lol) last week... ...Was only Richmond I know, but Essendon won the I50's 56-46... ...Crows gave up 59!! I50's to Brisbane!! :eek Hawthorn have actually started playing some defense...thought their 2.57 last week was only due Richmond, but 2.40 this week aswell... Right then...onto things I'll probably get wrong again this week! ;) Dogs playing very solid D indeed...and all of a sudden it's crystal clear why we went out to get Hall. 4.49 entries per goal is best in the AFL...5.55 in their last 5 games!!...and a league-low 19.4 shots in that time. I suspect it will be a long night for the Bomber forwards...and despite a better midfield showing this week I doubt they can break even here. Dogs have topped 100 in their last 7 meetings (95 and 96 before that), and won each of the last 5 by 22 or more. Interesting last year Bombers were held to just 15 shots. I reckon the Doggies will cover the -19.5, probably a decent 'under' shout as well, depending on the number of course. 1.35 is probably about right too. Tough to go against Geelong down at Skilled, but Dees do go alright there...haven't lost by more than 46 in 9 games since 1999! Just don't want to go near it. If it's at all possible, Richmond's defense is getting worse!! A shot every 1.55 entries in their last 5... ...scoring has been Port's problem lately, although 30 shots last week v. what has been a pretty good Melbourne D is impressive. Richmond have lost 3 road games this year by 50, 39 & 55, and given the Crows had 10 more shots in their win, it's fair to expect port to do much the same... ...although just 22 shots at home to Carlton 2 weeks back in a concern...first full game without Tredrea tho?... Any reason why Hawthorn were so bad against Richmond, anyone remember? Looks like a good 'over' candidate, Port should win easily, but... ...32 shots to 24 in this game last year looks about right, but Tredrea kicked 7... :\ Pretty happy to be taking Collingwood -22.5 I reckon. Brisbane have been awful lately. A shot every 2.26 entries is 2nd worst (last 5)...behind Melbourne 2.35, not sure if I mentioned that!...and are giving up 59 I50's per game in that time, the worst by a long way! inc. 2 games at home. Pies have won their last 6 interstate games, inc. a 33 win at a far better Freo this year. Last week's loss probably motivates them all the more. Can the Crows score on the road? 17, 16, 22, 20 shots away from home so far...75 points v. Kangaroos is a real worry, now playing Saints who are giving up a mere 20 shots anyway. 27.5 points is a lot to cover for a team who can barely score themselves... Saints win, total is probably set @ low 160's...

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Re: AFL Rd. 10. Richmond played with much more intensity than Hawthorn that day. Last week Hawks had ins that made them more solid and they simply chose to show up for a change. Richmond last week had a couple of important outs and no decent ins plus that I often feel teams are vulnerable off an honorable loss. Bulldogs, Carlton handicaps I like and also Melbourne - I know it stars aligning theories again but I feel Melbourne will like this challenge while Geelong may be a touch flat now that they're premiership certainties, and seeing an opponent softened from playing in Darwin.

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