AFL Rd. 9.

[TazaD]

Wow. Beat oz to it. I'll still let you do the honours of posting the lines tho mate...mainly because I'm ******' hopeless when it comes to cutting/pasting things in their original format! :lol :ok I'm going to indulge in a story first...:$ ...seems one of my mates at work is the original Joe Public! He spend nearly a whole day telling me how good value WC were last week v. Melbourne...and that "home/away does not matter", they are "a better team"... ...[of course, never really explaining how 1-17 last 18 on the road was more than mere coincidence]... ...and I was "an idiot" for picking Essendon. He's going to be of great interest to me the rest of the way re: the weighted tipping...which as a slight aside was crazy this week. Moved up exactly 16 places :eyes...but was an amazing 77,000th overall for the week!! :eek How's that work? So all the nuff-nuff's picked WC and probably Kangas, but surely not Ess...either way, seems the top 1000 are all on the same wave-length picking much the same teams, so will be a slog from here. But, also (back on track! Sorry! :lol), see who he likes at the start of the week might give me a fair idea which way the lines will move towards game time. :ok Anyway, very disappointed with this weeks lines. Honestly, Geelong/Coll has to be a flip of the coin...small edge to the Pies on form, but Cats have smashed them last couple (last year). Guessing (seriously!) the total will be 220ish... Dogs win with sheer weight of I50's and defense. Was hoping for a far smaller spread to jump on tho. Kangas going alright at the Dome. 4 goals is a bit steep to be selling tho... Like Freo (and an OVER)...Tiges...WC and Bris away from home, none of them can score! Bradshaw back, should be some points. Was actually surprised to see them a mere 2.05ish tho...guess the Swans unconvinced a few people last week. Honestly don't see any value here... Still, last time they played SCG, Freo lost by 4, with 33 shots to 27!! Goodes kicked 8! (er, not again) and Bazza kicked 4. Even Freo's scoring lately might give away any total value...might just be one to pick the Dockers and sit back and watch... ****, how do you pick Port v. Melbourne in Darwin??!! :eyes Think it's fair to say Port are better than WC (isn't it? :unsure), but Tredrea out may hurt more than I would have thought. Only thing I can see here is a massive under. I can't see Port topping 23 shots, and Melbourne going at an awful 2.55 shots/I50 in their last 4...in fact, they are THE two least efficient teams in the last 5. (2.27 each) Will be 'wet' and slippery up there (not that it's historically a low scoring ground), but yeah, will be prepared to go pretty low here. Who wins? Got me. Right, first [predicted! :D] upset of the round? Is this Richmond's first win?? Yeah, so I was all over the Bombers last week...got the bickies, but statistically were poor/ 43-54 I50's, 115-139 contested possies, 3 less shots v. a pretty poor (let's be fair) Riewoldt-less scoring Saints. It was only their solid D that got them home (and Saints awful conversion)... ...last 5 Saints are kicking a goal every 4.78 entries (worst...just as an aside, Brisbane 2nd worst now I look closely!!), Tiges not a totally terrible 4.39...[better than Sainst, WC, Adelaide, Bris]... ...but the damning thing to me is that they've allowed 57 I50's (av.) last 5 [-8]! Wouldn't normally be a concern v. Richmond, but [and this is scary!!]...Tiges were 54-38 I50's last week!!! :eek :eek Almost impossible to lose, esp!! v. Hawks... ...which, I know can easily be interpretted as a bad thing, but the key here could be in the personel. Hooker out is going to hurt the Dons...(although possible Lovett-Murray back...)...prepared to say their D doesn' stand up to the lofty numbers this week. 2 close games last year, in fact Richond won the rd. 17 game by 5 points... ...40 point first game to the Dons but just 5 shots in it, and numbers look very similar here. Bombers were 49-50 I50's last year....49-57 now pretty much disolves their sudden defensive 'dominance'...and like I said, minus a key player it disappears all the more. Reckon they are a real chance for the win...kick straight (Jack!) and 4 goals start is well within reach. Dare say I'll be drunk...I mean taking Richmond... And so we quickly come to upset number 2... ...why I continue to take the Crows leaves me [literally!] shaking my head, but here we are. How do Brisbane score? Crows, as bad as they have been , are allowing 40 I50's at home!! Lions av. just 22 shots on the road (2.25 per entry...2nd worse to Richmond), and giving up 56 I50's in their last 5....-10 in their last 4!!! Of course the Adelaide kicking for goal can not be discounted, but it does look like they will get a hell of a lot more chances than the Lions... ...even shown by the most unlikely of numbers...marks I50... ....Crows 77-68 overall, 61-45 at home!!....Lions 52-71 last 5!!! Almost unbelievable to me. Kick straight (ooohhhhh..... :\) and they win. Yeah, yeah, missing Johncock and Vince [and Jaensch], big deal. Knights and Mackay back make up for it. Just found them for 2.30 and all over it. Done. Go Crows! :tongue2 Blues look obvious, but they have been leaking points, so can't be confident with them as decent sized favs. 1.86 in their last 5 is 3rd worst, behind Rich and Crows [lol, the two teams I look like being on!! :rollin], and Hawks scored 84 against a much better better Doggy D at the Dome earlier in the year. Tough to look at the Hawks here (although Mitchell, Burgoine, Buddy*** all better for the run?), but I dare say it will be a relatively high scoring game. Will have one eye cast towards the total Sunday morn... *** I know [and why!] the umpires hate Bazza, but Franklin really does get a worse deal still!!! Gives a lot of legit frees away, but what the hell does he have to do to get one??!!... ...and while I'm on it, how the ******* hell does Hille get off 3 absolutely suspendable incidents 3 ******* weeks in a row???!!!! Seriously, if that is either Hall or Franklin they get a week (or 2) for each of them!!! Just awful, AWFUL inconsistancy. But hey, it's what we've come to expect I suppose... :\ Anyway...the last game is probably my most disappointing line of all. WC have been unconvincing all year. Port, Ess and Hawks all scored on them at home, despite allowing just 44 I50's... ...they have the 3rd least efficient backline (yes, at home!) and I reckon it's a game the Saints come up against a favourable match up...first time for a while... ...yet, they are favs!!!! :wall :wall Yeah, well played books, or public...best be sure to ask Brad his opinion tomorrow. I know he loves WC, with such quality players such as Spanger and Swift...( :unsure you've seriously got me!)...so I'm half guessing early that there's a chance the Saints drift out here... ...long term perception v's public dummy perception...Tough call! :\ Anyway, hoping to get on the Saints anything 2.00+. Meh, see how we go, ay... :beer

[Ashtee]

Re: AFL Rd. 9. I was about to make an in depth post but I'm pretty well stuffed now after reading that! I've always felt West Coast's problem is they have too many guys with names like McGinnity, McKinley & Mackenzie, then throw in Spangher and Schofield and Thursday's team sheet just looks rediculous! A bit like several years ago when Richmond had too many guys with short names - CAN NOT WIN A FLAG AROUND POOR NAME DRAFTING LIKE THAT! [i bet Brad's sounding alright just now?] To be honest the Mc's had a good day last week. I've got that game evens. Carlton's the one I like - Top-4 team IMO. Richmond's the other one (so that's now two of us out of 21-Million, & counting) - hope Jackson get's off, which could mean they'll field strongest line-up for the season.