Where is the advantage?

[joemcintyre]

I'm quite new to the forum and to be honest betting in general but I definitely know the basics. My background is programming so I found it quite interesting that I can go to sites like www.football-data.co.uk and get the previous 10 or so years worth of results (and odds). I can then throw together simple scripts that can then parse those files and test different systems. My first system was quite simple. Ignoring the first 6 games - Compare the goal difference for each team for the last 6 games (home and away) - If the difference between the GDs for each team is greater than 3 goals - bet home or away based on who has the better GD - else, less than 3 goals between each team's GD, can't quite call it so say bet on the match being a draw*. So there would be 320 units bet, but testing with the English premier league past few years, the system always shows a negative, it's close, but nonetheless negative. *an interesting feature of bookmakers is that they never favour a draw I've tried other simpler systems, like betting on strong teams (Chelsea, Man Utd) to win, but again always showing a slight negative return. So my question is this... is there a system that works for all data currently available on football-data.co.uk? I totally understand that just because a system works for all currently available data, doesn't mean to say it will work for future data... but I think a system that works with all current data, would have a good chance at working against future data. There must be some pattern to football - teams like Man Utd, Chelsea, Rangers, Celtic usually winning games as for the past 20 odd years, if not more they've been in the top 5 of their respective leagues. I think I can add value by writing programs that can automate bets, compare odds from different bookmaker sites live etc. but if it is simply mathematically impossible to consistently beat the bookmaker (even ever so slightly by the end of the season, +1 unit would be acceptable as it is not losing) then I'm not quite sure what to try next... I would love to hear your thoughts, but appreciate I have a lot of researching still to do, Thanks

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Where is the advantage? If we all knew the answer mate we'd all be sunning ourselves in the bahamas drinking pina coladas instead of bumming about on here :lol You will find that over time the bookies have picked up on most trends, its what they do for a living, so may need to think outside the box a little. Thats where the skill is. Theres a few theories you could test Beaten favourites: Is it profitable backing a team who have failed to win when going off at odds-on in their last outing. The theory being the stronger the team the more likely they are to win after a disappointing result. 1x2/goals correlation: Is there a correlation between the amount of goals scored in a game, and the odds of the home or away team winning the game. The theory being that when a home team are much stronger than the away team, there is more chance of the game going over 2.5 goals. But when the away team are much stronger than the home team, the opposite is true. Is this a profitable strategy to follow?

[joemcintyre]

Re: Where is the advantage? Thanks for your reply Vilamoura. I don't expect anyone to just tell me a winning formula, it's more just wanting to know if it's even mathematically possible, or programmatically. Assuming there is a such a system, or a combination of systems, that seems to give a profit year in year out, the next challenge would be to disguise the fact that you are consistently winning, bet on various different betting sites and so on. I think armed with IT and programming we can turn the advantage over to our side, but rather than waste years of trying, it'd be nice to have the comfort in knowing that it can be done first before trying.

[Vilamoura04]

Re: Where is the advantage? Well Kevin Pullein is one of the more respected statisticians in the game, may be worth reading up on him. He always opines that mistakes are rarely found in the major markets these days, theres too much money in them. He looks to the more obscure markets, bookings, corners etc for value.

[samallardyce17]

Re: Where is the advantage? Dont want to go too far away from the system sise of things here guys, but you mentioned unuted, chelsea, rangers etc all strong teams that are consistent winners and the lack of value in these teams, might i suggest some sort of system that backss these teams but in terms of a correct score e.g. United to beat wolves 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0. Theres certain things to be careful of such as cup ties and the pther teams motives (relegation etc) at certain times, but you may find your value there