Odds trends

[parishioner]

Hi everyone, I'm new here. If this topic is in the wrong place, please forgive me, there's just so much to take in at first and I thought this looked like the most relevant place to ask my question. I know very little about horses, but have done a fair bit of sports betting over the years. I have recently started looking into betting on the horses, and have been fascinated by the way a horse's odds will change in the lead up to a race. I'll use Aajel as an example, as I noticed the odds last night on Betfair. The price was 12.5, and I noticed there was much more money backing it than there was for other horses. It's odds continued to drop to around 8.0 (i think?). Now the odds for this horse seemed to slowly drop all the way through the morning, and the horse ended up placing. Is the likely explanation that people just that more and more people fancied it to do well, so the odds reflected this, or is it much more complicated than that? An influential tipster? Analysis of stats? A word from the trainer that the horse was in good form? Suitable weather conditions for the horse? I just wondered if markets on horses tend to act like that, moving one way on one piece of information that is slowly spread around, or if it's just as unpredictable as picking a winning horse, with a huge range of factors that could at any point cause the odds to swing one way or another... I hope all of that makes sense. If not, I'll try to simplify the question: Would you say that one piece of information released in the morning could cause the price of a horse to continue to drop steadily up until the off as the word spreads, or is it more likely that the release of such information would have an immediate impact on the horse's price? I'd appreciate any responses, and if I haven't made myself very clear, just ask me what i'm on about and I'll try to have another go.

[DM99]

Re: Odds trends

Hi everyone, I'm new here. If this topic is in the wrong place, please forgive me, there's just so much to take in at first and I thought this looked like the most relevant place to ask my question. I know very little about horses, but have done a fair bit of sports betting over the years. I have recently started looking into betting on the horses, and have been fascinated by the way a horse's odds will change in the lead up to a race. I'll use Aajel as an example, as I noticed the odds last night on Betfair. The price was 12.5, and I noticed there was much more money backing it than there was for other horses. It's odds continued to drop to around 8.0 (i think?). Now the odds for this horse seemed to slowly drop all the way through the morning, and the horse ended up placing. Is the likely explanation that people just that more and more people fancied it to do well, so the odds reflected this, or is it much more complicated than that? An influential tipster? Analysis of stats? A word from the trainer that the horse was in good form? Suitable weather conditions for the horse? I just wondered if markets on horses tend to act like that, moving one way on one piece of information that is slowly spread around, or if it's just as unpredictable as picking a winning horse, with a huge range of factors that could at any point cause the odds to swing one way or another... I hope all of that makes sense. If not, I'll try to simplify the question: Would you say that one piece of information released in the morning could cause the price of a horse to continue to drop steadily up until the off as the word spreads, or is it more likely that the release of such information would have an immediate impact on the horse's price? I'd appreciate any responses, and if I haven't made myself very clear, just ask me what i'm on about and I'll try to have another go.

Interesting question! I'm pretty sure no-one knows exactly how the spread of information influences the odds of a horse race, but sounds like a PhD topic for someone in Maths or Stats or Psychology! The betting markets operate just like any other markets: they become more efficient as more money flows into them, meaning that the odds on offer eventually match very closely the true odds of a horse winning. The night before, there isn't much liquidity at all, and shrewdies make the market by offering a large spread or they take prices that should be way out of line when the race time comes around. As morning passes, more and more people who have done their research pile on to the odds that are most out of line, again pushing them closer to the true odds. About 10 minutes to the off, the traders pile on to the next race and liquidity jumps. Also, people are scanning the paddock for any signs of how the horse will run and are watching the TV for any info that may give them the edge. At this stage, most cash would be the least informed punters: just following the favourite, using progressive staking, betting for something to do. At the off, when liquidity is at its peak, the shrewdies with inside info place their bets so they can get the best prices without affecting the odds or letting anyone else capitalise on it. The odds of horses don't go any which way most of the time: it takes someone with a good supply of cash and better info than the public (crooked jockey, doped horse, better mathematical model etc) to change the prices. I would guess that inside info is more influential on major price changes than the publically available stuff. While we are on the topic of "not public info", I managed to get stung yesterday. One of my systems threw up Binnion Bay (3.00 Ling) as a lay bet. Poor, below average horse, has not performed well for a while, based on ratings inferior to virtually all other runners. A few seconds before the off he was trading at about 40, then in one second his price dropped to 32 as someone put down a large wedge of cash, I am guessing maybe as high as 1000 pounds. Needless to say, he won by 1/2 length, and I am truly mystified how the pro knew to put down a very large back bet on a clearly inferior 25/1 outsider!