rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Share Posted April 17, 2010 I've bet on corners for quite a while now and having read an article recently about how the number of corners in a game can't be predicted with the strength of teams, etc, I'm going to try something. I've also noticed, often to my delight or despair, that first and second half corner tallies often have no bearing on each other. I'm going to take Premier League games in running and use Bet365 My plan is to look at the total number of corners at half time in each game. If a game had 4 corners or less in the first half, I shall bet on the maximum 'over' that Bet365 offers. For 4 that would be over 11 or 12 I imagine. If a game had 8 corners or more in the first half, I shall bet on the minimum 'under' that Bet365 offers - probably under 12 if there were 8. The odds for these bets are generally anything between 5/2 and 6/1 so we will see how we go. This will be a paper trail style experiment, starting with an imaginary £100 (mainly because I don't get paid for another week and a half!), staking 5% of my bank each time. I will do this for every PL game that fits with the corner numbers that I have access to the computer at half time for! Starting in 5 mins or so... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Corners in running... The only game to fit the criteria at HT is Sunderland v Burnley, so here we go: 17 Apr 10Sunderland v Burnley3Over 109/2527.50 (Date, Fixture, HT corners, Top end of market, Odds, Stake, Potential win) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Bet 365 very slow in updating the Fulham v Wolves game: 17 Apr 10Fulham v Wolves8Under 116/1530 For the Sun v Bur game 27.50 is potential return, not win, sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Not a great start.... DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinBank afterTotal cornersCumulative P/L17 Apr 10Fulham v Wolves8Under 116/15309514-517 Apr 10Sunderland v Burnley3Over 109/2527.50906-10 Lets see what Spurs v Chelsea brings... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Corners in running... I hope this one doesn't win, as I put £150 on over 12 before the match......;) DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinBank afterTotal cornersCumulative P/L17 Apr 10Spurs v Chelsea9Under 135/14.5022.5085.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 17, 2010 Author Share Posted April 17, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Glad that didn't come in as I won 187.50.... DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinBank afterTotal cornersCumulative P/L17 Apr 10Spurs v Chelsea9Under 135/14.5022.5085.5017-14.50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Corners in running... I've bet on corners for quite a while now and having read an article recently about how the number of corners in a game can't be predicted with the strength of teams' date=' etc, [/quote'] What article is this, is it online? There is a proven statistical correlation between the amount of goals a team scores (compared to the number conceded) and the number of corners it gets. Your actual strategy appears to be unrelated to this point, and looks promising. Corner counts often "regress to the mean". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vilamoura04 Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Yeah OK I was thinking the share of the corners a team wins, which does correlate to goals. As opposed to total corners. I think we are saying the same thing on regression to the mean. The point is that if you are expecting 10 corners in a game and you have had only 1 in the first half, this does not make it more likely that there will be a similarly low number of corners in the second half. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Corners in running... It was indeed the Kevin Pullein article that I read (just found it again on the web - http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2006/feb/10/newsstory.sport3 ) I agree with what you have both said - if there have been very low corners in the 1st half it has no correlation on the 2nd half. It doesn't mean there will be extra to bring the total from (e.g) 1 to the average of 11, and it doesn't mean there will be 1 again. It is likely to follow the normal pattern of Premier League games, roughly 6 in the 2nd half. However, this is where I think the bookies may get it slightly wrong and be influenced by the 1st half. I've seen games which have had 11 or 12 1st half corners and the bookies have set the odds to expect a further 8 or 9 in the 2nd half, so this is where I'm hoping to capitalise. (Good example earlier in the season Man U v Man C in the league, 0 corners in the first half, 12 in total! That game killed me..) The article also makes the point that corners are very hard to predict - which I think is actually very good for the gambler as it means its harder for the bookies to predict! Betting on total corners also brings into play how many you concede as a team as well as force. The list of the teams muppet has supplied above is different when it comes to total corners, as the likes of the 'big 4' also concede the fewest. We'll see how it goes, anyone who has any other comments, experience or suggestions please let me know! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
muppet77 Posted April 18, 2010 Share Posted April 18, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 18, 2010 Author Share Posted April 18, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Excellent stats, thanks. I created some last season, basically a grid which had all the fixtures on and the number of corners in each game, so I could see whether a team had more corners at home as opposed to away, or whether certain teams won and conceded more corners against stronger teams, etc. One thing from last year was thast Villa were way out in front (same again I see!), followed by WBA and West Ham. I see this year with Portsmouth and Villa in the top three no surprise that there were 13 in today's game. Unfortunately I was greedy and went for over 15 to get better odds.. serves me right. Neither of today's game qualified for the in-running bet incidentally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gloryhunters Posted April 19, 2010 Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Though there is no relationship between the strength of the team and the number of corners. When two teams play eachother the greater the difference in ability the more corners there will be. However, this has a smaller influence than the style of football a team plays. Secondly, if there are few or many corners in the first half though this may not impact directly on the number in the second half, it doesn't mean you shouldn't close the bet. This is because the balance of the up side and downside changes. Thirdly, a bookie rarely makes a mistake. A bookie doesn't have to give the correct odds his job is to balance the books to make a profit on whatever is the outcome. I bet on the bookings on a match the other day and the challenges were flying in but the ref didn't book anybody (to my dsappointment). I then notice the line moving north as I assume more people bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 19, 2010 Author Share Posted April 19, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Wasn't in at HT for Liv v West Ham so not able to 'bet' if the match had met the criteria. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinBank afterTotal cornersCumulative P/L24 Apr 10Hull v Sunderland8Under 127/24.2814.98 24 Apr 10Wolves v Blackburn4Over 129/24.2819.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted April 24, 2010 Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Good luck with your selections. I'm currently watching Wolves-Blackburn. It's quite unlikely to have over 12 corners with the way both teams are playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Cheers - the odds don't look very good today for some reason Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... First success... DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinTotal cornersBank afterCumulative P/L24 Apr 10Hull v Sunderland8Under 127/24.2814.989100.48.4824 Apr 10Wolves v Blackburn4Over 129/24.2819.26896.20-3.80 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Hopefully this will come off too, have a single on over 12 anyway... DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinTotal cornersBank afterCumulative P/L24 Apr 10Arsenal v Man City4Over 1111/44.8113.23 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Possibly one of the worst games in the history of football. DateFixtureH/T cornersF/T marketOddsStakePotential WinTotal cornersBank afterCumulative P/L24 Apr 10Arsenal v Man City4Over 1111/44.8113.23691.39-8.61 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayjordan Posted April 24, 2010 Author Share Posted April 24, 2010 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MPLouis Posted November 25, 2010 Share Posted November 25, 2010 Re: Corners in running... Just read this thread - has your trial finished? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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