The couch on page 11 of todays r/post

[casey jones]

Can anyone inform me if Mr Winstanley is correct in today’s R/Post on page 11. He states that OLD MONEY is by Medicean and would prefer better ground, mmmmhhhhhh now while nothing is written in stone the stats suggest that Medicean stock are equally affective on a slower surface as a quick surface from what i have been viewing on Raceform. Secondly this Animal ran in October on what was officially good ground at Folkestone , i would strongly suspect it was on the slow side of good that day, it also appears to be the Fillys best run to date. In a race were few have a realistic chance of winning and OLD MONEY being the second top rated filly on official ratings, the Couch has put a fork in her because she needs faster ground! Well John Hills has the favourite a man who rarely visits the winner’s enclosure and there won’t be many brave souls wanting to take 5/2 about a runner from this barn that has been seen for 5½ months. While on paper his 3 runs too date appear to give him a favourite’s chance, however he’s drawn stall 12 and will need everything to drop right.

Mr Winstanley is suggesting connections of the fancied runners will be looking on today. I am not sure that’s true, the main dangers to the John Hills runner are all fillies and again i strongly suspect most of them will be trying to win for breeding purposes. They may well fall short on ability on the day but it’s hard to see them just having a run round. Some will point to OLD MONEY having a poor draw in stall 13 which is true but i do expect her to be in the mix. Whirly Dancer and Mountrath or Aquarius Star aren’t a million either although the later maybe a money burner. Strictly on the book Aquarius Star has a huge chance on her first run at Beverly when she split a 94 rated horse and an 80 horse which in theory makes her around an 85-90 filly, however her 2^nd run was poor when she was surrounded by 70-75 types. You could give her the benefit of the doubt as she doesn’t have a lot of miles on the clock but the jury is out for me at this point although i wouldn’t be surprised if she won.

So in brief you have three 75 animals in Whirly Dancer, Mountrath & Old Money who look sure to set the standard and run their race, then you have two potential improvers one with trendy southern form with a trainer who isn’t prolific and one from a yard yet to prove its self in the top draw. At the odds the 75 rated horses look the value i am not convinced Mr Winstanley has this right.

What do the real judges think?