Snooker: World Championships 2010

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Any slim hopes of the bet coming in have just got slimmer with Cope not potting the black to clinch the 50 break in the last frame.....

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Carter was crap in that session but it goes to show how bad Cope was that he's 7-2 down. His cue action looks gone to me. Going with one tonight. 3pts M.Holt (+5.5 frames) to beat J.Perry 11/10 Stan James Michael Holt lost yesterday's session 7-2 but he must be wondering how he's only won 2 frames. In the session he's scored a century, two 60's and 2 40's and he's only won 2 frames which is unbelievable really. By contrast, Perry's hit 3 half centuries and a couple of 30's and won 7 frames with a high break of 64. I never saw yesterday's session but Michael Holt scored in every frame which suggests he was getting chances so I don't necessarily see why he's odds against to share this 2nd session which is all he'd need to do in order to bring the +5.5 line in. Holt can score well and while his temperament isn't what it was all isn't totally lost at 7-2 down as Perry hasn't won a lot of matches this year. If he can win 3 of the 1st 4 and make it 8-5 you never know but with a decent start to the evening session he can make it to the required 5 frames at a more than fair 11/10.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Good luck Kev, looks a nice price that one:ok. As I still have a bet riding on that match, I'll leave it alone but will take a bet in the other. S.Hendry to beat A.Zhang 10-6, 1.5pts @ 9/2 Boylesports S.Hendry to beat A.Zhang 10-7, 1.5pts @ 9/2 Boylesports At 7/4 the pair, I make this a nice bet. Currently 5-4 to Hendry, we need this session to finish 5-2 or 5-3 to bring this one home, and 7/4 for that to happen is big. Hendry started well yesterday, winning the first 4, and looked capable of taking this easily. The young Chinese lad came back well but I don't think he can maintain it tonight. Hendry will probably start quicker making this bet even more likely and his experience will count at the business end of the match. He didn't play all that and if he can up his game sufficiently, he will take this match comfortably. I just hope Zhang can take 2 frames in the process.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Didnt see anything for tonight's games but one bet stood out for me in tomorrow morning's matches. 6pts Mark Williams (-4.5 frames) to beat Marcus Campbell at Evens with Bluesquare Mark Williams has, over the past few months, played himself back into the kind of form he was in when he was at the top of his game consistently a few years ago. He beat off Higgins, Carter and Ding on his way to winning the China Open earlier this month and in the tournament before that, The Welsh Open, he reached the quarter final stages. He looks in no danger of dropping back outside the top 16 in the world any time soon and, if anything, looks more likely to climb up the rankings. His opponent Marcus Campbell beat a still out of sorts Matthew Stevens in qualifying for this tournament aswell as James Wattana. However, having looked at the Global Snooker site, i saw that in the 34 frames he played over those 2 matches, he only managed to score 50+ breaks 5 times which shows that those victories can hardly have been convincing. The price for this is odds on with other firms and whilst Williams to beat a -3.5 handicap looks tempting, i think the even money price about this looks a good thing.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Mark Williams vs Marcus Campbell Marcus Campbell comes into this game after beating Matthew Stevens 10-9 in qualifying but a closer inspection at that match shows both players did not produce sno[url=http://images.sportinglife.com/08/04/330/Mark_Williams_v_Mark_Davis_Crucible_809624.jpg]oker worthy of being on show at The Crucible and Marcus definetly has his work cut out here against a rejuvinated Mark Williams. The Welshman is top class on his day and the signs from him this season definetly suggest he is returning to his very best. Unlike his opponent Mark has bundles of experience at the top level and he should have far too much class for his opponent here. I would expect Williams to win this very comfortably and definetly can't see Marcus Campbell notching 7 frames against the in form Welshman. Mark Williams -3.5 frames @ 1.72 Paddy Power

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Clawed a bit back today, now at -4.4pts with the Hendry bet losing but both Perry & Allen/Ford bets coming in. Into tomorrow, still have the overs on Carter/Cope for 5pts which is looking decidedly dodgy and Fu's centuries for 2pts which has a chance. He has one, with 1 to get:hope Fair play to the Chinese lad, Hendry's in trouble.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 M.Williams vs M.Campbell, Williams 4-6 frames winning margin, 3pts @ 7/4 William Hill Covering the 10-4, 10-5 and 10-6 scorelines here and confident it'll be in the right area. As Jack alludes to earlier, Campbell is not the greatest break builder and has only knocked in a handful of 50+ breaks in his 2 qualifying wins. I would also add that, in the 34 frames he played, he restricted his opponent to less than 20 points in just 5 frames. That clearly indicates that he will give his opponent chances. Williams meanwhile is playing well and is a good attacking player so should be able to take advantage of the chances he will be given. However, he does have the tendency to get involved in scrappy frames and that may suit his opponent. An easy victory predicted but I think Campbell will get enough frames to do himself justice, meaning I take the mid-range score here.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 M.King vs S.Davis, highest break under 95.5, 3pts at Evs BlueSq Considering the unders on 0.5 centuries is currently priced at around 1/2 or 4/7 with most bookies, I feel that this high break just a shade lower on 95.5 is great value. Neither of these players are great break builders and, in fact, they share just 1 century between them this season. On top of that, there is the Crucible 1st round atmosphere to overcome and this line is given added weight due to each opponenet. Both are naturally safety minded and I expect there will be many, many long, tight, scrappy frames where a 30 or 40 break might well be enough. I fancy King to win this but, in a low scoring affair, I'll take this unders bet here.

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 1st bet of the championship has gone down with Hendry and Zhang not managing a century between them, let alone 3 (still, it was a cracking match). Carter v Cope looks like disappointing as well. :( Still, onwards and upwards and I'm sticking with the century breaks tomorrow. O'Sullivan v Wenbo - over 2.5 hundred breaks @ 2.74 on Betfair. There's very little that needs to be said here - both are heavy scorers and either one of them is capable of bringing this bet home single-handed. I expect Ronnie to be far more focused than he was in China and Liang is the sort of opponent that suits him. The price looks a tad generous for what's likely to be a very open game.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Not a great start for me so far. Holt had 2 good chances to win a 5th frame tonight but never did it. I'm going with 3 tomorrow in the hope the luck turns around. 5pts M.Williams (-3.5 frames) to beat M.Campbell 8/11 Paddy Power As I said in my outright punt, Mark Williams is playing some top quality snooker at the minute and I expect him to see off the dour Scot quite easily here. Marcus Campbell is going up in class big time here and I can't see him taking 6 frames off Williams. He doesn't score heavily enough. What really impressed me in China wasn't just Williams' scoring but his safety play was bang on the money too. He's coming here to win this event and Campbell will just be a stat on his record at the end of this. I can see Williams having this job all but complete at half time and so I'm happy to have a very strong bet on Williams winning 10-6 or better because even if he has an off day Campbell would have to perform above himself to take 6 off the Welsh Potting Machine. Williams all the way for me. 3pts M.Gould to beat M.Fu 11/4 Blue Square These two played out a decent 1st session and at the end of it there wasn't a great deal between them as Fu leads 5-4 going into the final session. Gould won 3 of the last 4 frames though which included a century so he's playing fairly well at the minute. He hasn't hit the heights this season that he did last season, which included a win over Stephen Hendry in the Welsh Open but his form looks fine here. Marco Fu's a tricky one. He's had a rotten season away from the Championship League and the way he struggled to beat Nigel Bond from 3-0 down and even Bjorn Haneveer in China was worrying for Fu fans. He hasn't won many matches this season so if Gould can keep this tight and take it into the latter frames he could have a mental advantage. Saying that, he's only 5-4 behind and we've seen Higgins turn a 5-4 deficit around and Anda Zhang almost did it against Stephen Hendry too so if Gould can stay with Fu and even win 3 of the opening 4 and go ahead of him I think this 11/4 will turn out to be a big price. 3pts R.O'Sullivan (-3.5 frames) to beat L.Wenbo 9/10 Boylesports Everyone's tried to build this up as the hardest draw Ronnie could have had but it isn't really and I expect him to win and win well. This isn't the 1st tough draw Ronnie's had in the opening round here. To be fair he seems to get them every year. He's played Stephen Maguire in the opener months after Maguire blew everyone away to win the UK, he's played Ding in the 1st round here when Ding was on fire and even Stuart Bingham last year was tough given Bingham's good season last term. Maguire's the only one who got near O'Sullivan though. Against Bingham last year O'Sullivan knocked in 3 tons and 2 90 breaks as he looked invincible. Maybe this handicap is so small because of Ronnie's antics in China but he always plays up out there but is the real deal early on in this event before his mind gets the better of him. Liang can play and shouldn't be completely discounted but he didn't make the final rounds of the Welsh Open or China Open, losing to Michael Judge and Andrew Higginson in the qualifiers. When he got to the UK Championship he beat Ryan Day and Mark King but when he came up against real quality, John Higgins brushed him aside 9-2. Liang's an all or nothing merchant and you need more than that against Ronnie who could just want to stick on a real show here. I can see Ronnie being 6-3 up at half time and then completing the job no worse than 10-6.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010

7pts J.Perry v M.Holt - Under 1.5 Centuries @ 8/11 Skybet I have no idea who will win the match, Joe Perry has had a very disappointing season and will not be in the Top 16 come the end of the season. Between the two players they have managed to score just one century all season so skybet's 8/11 about 1 century or less looks a good'un to get us underway.

Bet won. :ok +5.11. M.Fu v M.Gould (5-4 after session one) 3pts M.Gould to win Frame 10 (1st Frame, 2nd Session) @ 6/5 Stan James Frame betting is obviously dangerous but I think Gould could hold the upper hand when the players come out, although Marco leads 5-4, Gould took three of the last four to put him right back in this match. He should be in good spirits after that and will look to level it up 5-5. Marco will tell himself he is still leading but definitely when a player takes three of the last four he holds the edge coming into the next session.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010

Bet won. :ok +5.11. M.Fu v M.Gould (5-4 after session one) 3pts M.Gould to win Frame 10 (1st Frame, 2nd Session) @ 6/5 Stan James Frame betting is obviously dangerous but I think Gould could hold the upper hand when the players come out, although Marco leads 5-4, Gould took three of the last four to put him right back in this match. He should be in good spirits after that and will look to level it up 5-5. Marco will tell himself he is still leading but definitely when a player takes three of the last four he holds the edge coming into the next session.

Bet won. Fu 1-103 Gould :ok +3.60, +8.71 so far. 4pts M.King -2.5 Frames to beat S.Davis @ 9/10 Boylesports Mark King is playing fairly good snooker at present, he can be an strange character at times if things aren't going his way, I expect the crowd to get right behind Steve tonight but it was a similar thing for King when he met Jimmy White at The Masters, he handled the pressure well and won easily enough, I think he'll win this 10-7 or better.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Paddy Power offer Liang to win under 6.5 frames at 10/11 yet Ronnie -3.5 on the handicap is 4/6. Am i missing something blatantly obvious or is the 10/11 the same bet?

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Think the King - Davis match is too close to call so will leave that alone and just enjoy the viewing! One for this afternoon's games although i still have the over 50+ breaks in the Cope - Carter match, although its looking unlikely to come in to say the least..... 5 pts Liang Wenbo to win under 6.5 frames vs Ronnie O'Sullivan at 10/11 with Paddy Power Everyone knows about how unpredictable Ronnie can be but im confident enough that he will take this game and do it well. Liang has the potential to put up a good challenge and knocked in some good breaks last time out when qualifying but playing Ronnie here is another thing altogether. If Ronnie plays well he should win 10-6 or better so fingers crossed he is in the right state of mind.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Just snuck in myself with the Williams -4.5 handicap bet, was resigned to it losing after the first 9 frames! Lost out with the Carter - Cope overs but expected that after yesterday and still hoping Ronnie can finish off Wenbo with conviction tomorrow. Good calls from Kev, Jack and Russ on the Williams game too! Must say that posting all my picks on the forum over the last week or so, rather than just viewing it everyday, has helped my discipline massively. Im betting less as im having to think more about how i can justify my selections. Let's hope the profit continues to come......

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Good news marron, definitely helps you. :ok 3pts R.Day v M.Davis - Over 1.5 Centuries @ 5/4 Paddy Power Ryan Day has not been in the best of form this season but reached the Quater-Final's of the Welsh Open inJanuary to hopefully give him a bit of confidence for this, if he get's in amongst the balls then he can score heavily, I don't know alot about Davis, but I see he has managed seven century breaks on the tour this season, which isn't bad. Both of their 100 break average isn't brilliant and will need to improve for this to come in but this is the World Championships and time to play your best snooker, I think they'll be plenty of chances to get in and score heavy therefore 2 or more centuries is my call.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010

Just snuck in myself with the Williams -4.5 handicap bet, was resigned to it losing after the first 9 frames! Lost out with the Carter - Cope overs but expected that after yesterday and still hoping Ronnie can finish off Wenbo with conviction tomorrow. Good calls from Kev, Jack and Russ on the Williams game too! Must say that posting all my picks on the forum over the last week or so, rather than just viewing it everyday, has helped my discipline massively. Im betting less as im having to think more about how i can justify my selections. Let's hope the profit continues to come......

Very true... good point well made!

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Don't know how there wasn't a century break in the opening session.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Last one for me in this round I think. 3pts S.Davis (+2.5 frames) to beat M.King 11/10 Ladbrokes After the 1st session of this match Mark King leads 5-4. I think this is a big price on Davis to secure 4 more frames. He was unlucky not to come out of the session at least 5-4 up if not further ahead having played some decent stuff in the main. King's been trying to keep the balls open but Davis has capitalised on that a couple of times. Importantly Davis looks like he's cueing well. He's knocked in a few long balls and but for a couple of pieces of bad luck with his positional shots, he could have rattled in a couple of really big breaks. I think he played the better of the two in the opening session and whether he can win tonight when it gets close I'm not sure but I think he's playing well enough to take 4 more frames off King in this one.

[WaffleMania]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 thought i'd bagged a decent win last night, with a fiver on Davis to win what i thought was the 9th frame at 2.20 (ladbrokes), turns out i placed it 3 seconds too late and it updated itself to the 10th frame :wall. Bah. Not really into snooker usually, but looks like i'll be following it a lot more

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Not the greatest start for me with 1 out of 3 so far (thanks to Liang Wenbo :notworthy). On the plus side, my 2 outrights (Selby and Ding) have both looked solid in their opening matches. On to tonight, and one bet has caught my eye - Peter Ebdon (-1.5 frames) @ 2 on Betfair. I was looking at taking the match odds here (curently 1.63) but the difference in price for what amounts to 1 frame has changed my mind. Ebdon's fighting for his top 16 place here, having dropped down to 17th on the latest provisional list, and I'd normally be wary of a player going in with that sort of additional pressure on him, but not Ebdon. He has the sort of temperament to get fired up in this situation and I expect him to fight tooth and nail to secure the victory he needs here. Graeme Dott has shown signs of improvment just lately and he can be almost as tenacious as Ebdon at times, but I don't see him bringing this match down to the wire. Since winning at Sheffield in 2006, he's made it past the 1st round here just once and it's been a while since he made an impact in a ranking event. Evens for Ebdon to take this match 10-8 or better is a price worth taking in my opinion.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Well Liang won one frame too many from my point of view to scupper my bet. The game summed up alot of the negatives about betting on Ronnie's games, giving away too many chances to his opponent when in good positions for a player of his ability. One for tonights game..... 4pts Peter Ebdon -1.5 frames to beat Graeme Dott @ Evens with William Hill This looks to be a tight match in a repeat of the final a few years back. Ebdon has slipped down the rankings in recent seasons and is in danger of losing his top 16 place should he not put in a good performance here. His shot selections can be puzzling at times but when in the right frame of mind can score well enough whilst also being good enough on the safety side to keep it tight when the game becomes a tactical battle. In the China Open he beat Judd Trump 5-4 before beating Neil Robertson 5-1. He lost in the quarter finals but Ding was bang on form during that competition and getting to the quarters is still encouraging when coming straight to the Crucible. Graeme Dott was knocked out by Mark Allen in the first round in China after beating Ken Doherty to qualify. He qualified here by beating Jimmy Michie 10-5 but looking at his break building during that match doesnt read too impressive. He managed only 4 50+ breaks in those 15 frames and there was only the final frame in which Michie wasnt given an opportunity to get points on the board. Ebdon plays well over the longer format and although on paper it looks likely to be a scrappy match, i feel Ebdon's motivation of chasing a top 16 place could swing it. He can be a bit of an enigma so my are fingers crossed he turns up in good nick and if he does then i think a 10-8 scoreline or better is good value at Evens.

[JackJarvis]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Stephen Maguire vs Stephen Lee Both of these players have been in the headlines for all of the wrong reasons for the majority of the season and Maguire especially may not be fully focused on the job at hand here considering the continued allegations of 'dodgy' betting patterns against him. Lee has also been in the headlines for similar reasons but he definetly seems to be in the clear alot more now and he may well get the feeling he can cause an upset here. Maguire has never really lived upto his potential in my opinion and although he is a better player than Lee on his day, giving away a 3.5 frame start is a massive ask considering his mind may well be elsewhere. Stephen Lee qualified with ease for this event with a 10-2 win against Mike Dunn and the big man is a match for most players on the circuit when he is on a going day. The 9/4 available on an outright Lee win is very attractive but 10/11 for Lee getting a 3.5 frame start is fantastic value and I simply have to snap this up. Back Stephen Lee +3.5 frames @ 1.91 Stan James

[JackJarvis]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Some reception Steve Davis got. :notworthy

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 It hasn't half upset King as well:rollin

Last one for me in this round I think. 3pts S.Davis (+2.5 frames) to beat M.King 11/10 Ladbrokes After the 1st session of this match Mark King leads 5-4. I think this is a big price on Davis to secure 4 more frames. He was unlucky not to come out of the session at least 5-4 up if not further ahead having played some decent stuff in the main. King's been trying to keep the balls open but Davis has capitalised on that a couple of times. Importantly Davis looks like he's cueing well. He's knocked in a few long balls and but for a couple of pieces of bad luck with his positional shots, he could have rattled in a couple of really big breaks. I think he played the better of the two in the opening session and whether he can win tonight when it gets close I'm not sure but I think he's playing well enough to take 4 more frames off King in this one.

Top Work Kev. Davis wins 4 on the spin to come from 6-4 down to 6-8 up, ensuring a nice 3.3pt profit. (Much welcomed after a dire few days!!) Davis was 3/1 to win outright at the same time I placed the handicap bet with Ladbrokes... probably better elsewhere... If only the crystal ball hadn't clouded over! :lol

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Bet lost, fair play to Davis. +4.71 so far. Not getting involed with anything today, have the over 1.5 centuries in the Day match so we shall see.

4pts M.King -2.5 Frames to beat S.Davis @ 9/10 Boylesports Mark King is playing fairly good snooker at present, he can be an strange character at times if things aren't going his way, I expect the crowd to get right behind Steve tonight but it was a similar thing for King when he met Jimmy White at The Masters, he handled the pressure well and won easily enough, I think he'll win this 10-7 or better.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 One for this morning has caught my eye, only small stakes though...... 3pts Ryan Day vs Mark Davis more than 17.5 frames at 5/6 with Paddy Power Both players have given the other good opportunities regularly in this match but neither has been able to pull away. Its currently 5-4 to Davis and overall i dont think either will feel too disappointed going into the final session. I think today will go like how they left off in the last session, the odd decent break over 60 but largely trading 30s and 40s. Too close to call in the match betting so i think a 10-8 or 10-9 score either way at these odds is good value consideing its covering the closest 4 frame betting markets.

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010 Bit of a speculative one for me, but I can't let this price go unchallenged. Lay Stephen Maguire @ 1.3 on Betfair. I pretty much agree with everything Jack said about this match above. Maguire hasn't played at his best for 18 months or more now and I just have to oppose him at this price. He can't be 100% focussed going into this tournament with all the off-table distractions and he's not got the best temperament to start with. Lee's stamina is a worry and it's been a while since he performed well under the TV lights, but he's more than capable of pulling off a shock if he brings his best game to the table. Of course, that's a big if, but the beauty of this price is that it's low risk for potentially nice profit and there's also the possibility of a trade if the match is tight.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010

3pts R.Day v M.Davis - Over 1.5 Centuries @ 5/4 Paddy Power Ryan Day has not been in the best of form this season but reached the Quater-Final's of the Welsh Open inJanuary to hopefully give him a bit of confidence for this, if he get's in amongst the balls then he can score heavily, I don't know alot about Davis, but I see he has managed seven century breaks on the tour this season, which isn't bad. Both of their 100 break average isn't brilliant and will need to improve for this to come in but this is the World Championships and time to play your best snooker, I think they'll be plenty of chances to get in and score heavy therefore 2 or more centuries is my call.

Bet lost.

1pt e/w R.Day to win World Championships @ 40/1 Paddy Power (2' date= 1/2) 2pts R.Day to win 3rd Quater @ 5/1 Betfred I don't particulary rate Ryan Day as one of the best so a bit surprising I'm taking him for the outright, he is however ranked 6th best in the world for what its worth. I think the draw has been fairly kind, first up in Mark Davis who he ought to be getting past, then it starts to get a bit tricky with a likely 2nd round match v Mark Allen who I really rate but Day is double his price. If he can get past Allen, then he'll probably be facing Maguire who I think as times is questionable, Maguire would be strong favourite, but I wouldn't want to be taking him. Of course, we'd be on at 5/1 to beat him for the quater bet, so we'd have the value. If he can get past them Quaters then who knows, we'd be on at nice prices anyway. Basically I think there is a good chance he'll get through rounds one and two, therefore giving us value for the remaining rounds should he keep getting through.

Bets lost. -2.29pts now. Poor standard in that game, Day continued his poor form. Allen should beat Mark Davis without to much trouble, may take a look at the handicaps.

[marron]

Re: Snooker: World Championships 2010

One for this morning has caught my eye, only small stakes though...... 3pts Ryan Day vs Mark Davis more than 17.5 frames at 5/6 with Paddy Power Both players have given the other good opportunities regularly in this match but neither has been able to pull away. Its currently 5-4 to Davis and overall i dont think either will feel too disappointed going into the final session. I think today will go like how they left off in the last session, the odd decent break over 60 but largely trading 30s and 40s. Too close to call in the match betting so i think a 10-8 or 10-9 score either way at these odds is good value consideing its covering the closest 4 frame betting markets.

Bet won. Ebdon -1.5 bet looks certain to lose though......