Creating a system?

[Dale Cooper]

Best way to go about this? I've tried this multiple times but can never really come up with anything, how do you guys do it? What steps are involved for you? For example, I'm looking for a strike rate of around 90% for a staking plan I've got in mind but I've no idea as to how to go about creating a system that would give me that strike rate. I would tend to just look at a particular event and then make my decision based on that. Appreciate any replies guys!

[dannkez2407]

Re: Creating a system? The way i do it and its by no means the best, but works for me is to firstly decide on which sport you are going to use, personally i only 2 sports well and that is football and horse racing, so i would only ever choose those for now. for the sake of choosing football, its about one key vital point and that is finding out where you think the bookies have got it wrong, ie finding value in a selection you think is over priced. lets take 1x2 for example. Anybody can look at a piece of paper and see if they think the home team or away team will win or even if they think its a draw, but that is not what a system is about, its not about opinion, its about statistical fact. The bookies generate their odds in lots of different ways, they will take home/away form in to count, previous head to heads, the current trend on the overall league etc etc and apply that to an overall odd. Your goal is to find where they have cocked up and overpriced it. If you can do that, so long as you choose a reasonably favoured side you are halfway there. ill give you an example of what i tend to do - As i said before bookies will develop ways and means of generating their odds based on all different types of forms. If you can develop your own ratings to a high standard and come out with a differing opinion than them then you will have a selection. i use sites such as footballdata.co.uk, 365stats.com and h2hstats.co.uk (may have all the .coms wrong) these provide a wealth of information and it can be a long and aduous task setting up a spreadsheet which takes all previous form in to account and generates you a rating to be converted in to odds. If you dont have time for this, its fairly simple to use a recognised rating method to base your selections on. For example Paul Ross on here posts ratings in the uk football forum for all league fixtures for english leagues and scottish premier. These are very established ratings and very trustworthy. Now you can trail through those and develop a system of minimum odds criteria versus minimum ratings criteria and quite easily produce a system striking around 60-70%, so long as you are finding value, overtime you will generate profit. h2hstats also has its own ratings for 53 different leagues, its well worth looking at. but dont discount the wealth of info there is footballdata.co.uk as from here you can devise systems on overs/unders, corners, fouls etc, its an awesome site and even gives an insight in to what the bookies use in the terms of formulas when generating odds. if i could provide tips it would be to look at the lower english leagues, the bookies arent very accurate with these as they tend to concentrate more on generating odds for the premier leagues. The lower leagues odds can be generated by using the average for the league overall without going too much in to detail about their form. well i hope i have helped, feel free to ask any questions as i can see i have waffled on now for a while :rollin i do a lot of horse racing systems aswell, let me know if you want any ideas on them even after you have read my waffled response.