Jump to content

XDs laying underdogs strategy


Recommended Posts

Okay just wanted to test a system that i thought might produce a little bit of profit. It consists of laying underdogs in football matches, daily fixtures,will attempt to do it daily however if there isnt anything that matches criteria i will have to bypass it. i have a procedure to narrow down my selections i will discuss that later, possibly. Just wanted to get this thread up as soon as possible. My first selection is a large amount of multiples it probably wont be 8 multiples everytime. Depends on my analysis of the games. However, for my first selection it is just a fun punt because it 5% of my bank. * i am paper-testing this system for now if it produces any results will use 100units and continue. * this might be sort of a gloryhunt but nevertheless it is a system that i am implying. If it turns out like that along the lines, mods feel free to move it in the right section of the forum. Thanks. Guidlelines of the system: Bank - 100units Stake - 5% of bank Selections - chosen and narrowed down by statistics. lets see if we can get off to a good start :dude a bit of fun with this one, though. Multi #1 - 8 selection

1Spartak Nalchik v Alania Vladikavkaz (Laying Alania Vladikavkaz @ 5.07)
2Cittadella v Salernitana (Laying Salernitana @ 6.64)
3Ajaccio v Istres (Laying Istres @ 7.1)
4Le Havre v Bastia (Laying Bastia @ 6.3)
5Limerick 37 v Longford (Laying Longford @ 4.85)
6St Patricks v UCD (Laying UCD @ 5.63)
7Monaghan Utd v Finn Harps (Laying Finn Harps @ 4.74)
8Shelbourne v Salthill Devon (Laying Salthill Devon @ 14.27)
:hope Stake 5u @ 4.23 Return $16.15 (after commission) Starting bank 100 Current bank 95 Total staked 5 Number of bets 1 Winning bets Losing bets Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy

1Spartak Nalchik v Alania Vladikavkaz (Laying Alania Vladikavkaz @ 5.07) (2-1) :nana
2Cittadella v Salernitana (Laying Salernitana @ 6.64) (1-0) :nana
3Ajaccio v Istres (Laying Istres @ 7.1) (1-2) :@
4Le Havre v Bastia (Laying Bastia @ 6.3) (3-1) :nana
5Limerick 37 v Longford (Laying Longford @ 4.85)
6St Patricks v UCD (Laying UCD @ 5.63) (3-0) :nana
7Monaghan Utd v Finn Harps (Laying Finn Harps @ 4.74)
8Shelbourne v Salthill Devon (Laying Salthill Devon @ 14.27) Ouch. Not off to a great start. No further analysis is needed for this. Irish matches still left, however, Ajaccio didnt do the job for me. #note will only be conducting matches on the major leagues. This was just some fun. 4 so far with the Irish matches still to play. Decent effort. Time for the serious business. Will also cut down the amount of legs i use in the multiple. Starting bank 100 Current bank 95 Total staked 5 Number of bets 1 Winning bets 0 Losing bets 1 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -5 Selections for March 20th will be up later.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy So 6/8 first one... i kinda wish i didnt use so much selections. I know that my selection criteria will work out for the major leagues.

1Spartak Nalchik v Alania Vladikavkaz (Laying Alania Vladikavkaz @ 5.07) (2-1) :nana
2Cittadella v Salernitana (Laying Salernitana @ 6.64) (1-0) :nana
3Ajaccio v Istres (Laying Istres @ 7.1) (1-2) :@
4Le Havre v Bastia (Laying Bastia @ 6.3) (3-1) :nana
5Limerick 37 v Longford (Laying Longford @ 4.85) (2-0) :nana
6St Patricks v UCD (Laying UCD @ 5.63) (3-0) :nana
7Monaghan Utd v Finn Harps (Laying Finn Harps @ 4.74) (0-1) :@
8Shelbourne v Salthill Devon (Laying Salthill Devon @ 14.27) (3-0) :nana
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy Unlucky mate.. had some decent results there - but like you said I think there was just to many selections. Also, maybe instead of laying them you could back the opposite team in doubles and trebbles? How would your stats be looking if you had done that?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy #20th March

1Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 11.13)
2Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.96)
3Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 5.07)
4Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 7.1)
5Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 6.3)
6Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 38.16)
7Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 21.81)
Stake 5 @ 2.29 Starting bank 100 Current bank 90 Total staked 10 Number of bets 2 Winning bets 0 Losing bets 1 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -5 Ive also decided to monitor these matches by laying each one individually for 1 unit. It will be a seperate system. Reason: Lay stakes are lower on the exchange than multiples. I can then compare what works out better. Starting bank 100 Current bank 94.06 Number of bets 8 Winning bets 6 Losing bets 2 Strike rate 75% Yield Profit (or Loss) -5.94
Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 10 Risking 10 for 1 unit)
Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.2 risking 8.2 for 1)
Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 4.8 for 1)
Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 6.6 risking 6.6 for 1)
Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.9 risking 5.9 for 1)
Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 28 risking 28 for 1)
Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 18 risking 18 for 1)
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy

Unlucky mate.. had some decent results there - but like you said I think there was just to many selections. Also' date=' maybe instead of laying them you could back the opposite team in doubles and trebbles? How would your stats be looking if you had done that?[/quote'] Thanks Shadow. & excellent suggestion. Do you mean backing those favorites in doubles and trebles so i had 6 out of 8? Or backing what i had layed to produce 2 high underdog winners. Which will give me a high value double? I chose laying in order to compensate any draw outcomes. I will keep tweaking with the method i use to select my matches. i can probably back a 4fold/5fold/6fold outcome if i have 8 in the multiple. But i think i will cut it off to 5 or 6. Im sure it will produce better results in the long run.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy I ment backing the fav's... in the long run if you think you have a decent selection process then backing the outside big odds would be like backing against your system! Hmmm i see where your coming from with laying to cover the draw, I never though about that... you could always check the bet where if there's a draw you get your money back but get worse odds... if you can keep up a rate of 6/8 then it would be worth putting on a couple of 5/6 folds and even a small stake on an all in accumulator. But please take what im saying with caution - football still isnt my strongest point.. maybe the others who are more adept at it could point you in the right direction :ok

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy

if you can keep up a rate of 6/8 then it would be worth putting on a couple of 5/6 folds and even a small stake on an all in accumulator. But please take what im saying with caution - football still isnt my strongest point.. maybe the others who are more adept at it could point you in the right direction :ok
hopefully i can. The plan is to get the multiple right as frequent as possible. Just need to get disciplined and not get carried away with 7-8 leg multiples. From those small ones i should be making consistent profit over time. :dude I'll see this through until profit is made or it flunks out. Thanks for giving your insight still, shadow. Its appreciated.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy Grrr, im not liking these 7.1 odds. Think i will stay away from them lol 2 multiples contained em and both 7.1 matches lost. #20th March

1Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 11.13) (2-2)
2Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.96) (2-0) :nana
3Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 5.07) (3-0):nana
4Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 7.1) (0-2) :@
5Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 6.3) (4-2) :nana
6Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 38.16) (3-1):nana
7Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 21.81) (2-0):nana
Stake 5 @ 2.29 Starting bank 100 Current bank 90 Total staked 10 Number of bets 2 Winning bets 0 Losing bets 2 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -10
Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 10 Risking 10 for 1 unit)
Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.2 risking 8.2 for 1)
Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 4.8 for 1)
Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 6.6 risking 6.6 for 1)
Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.9 risking 5.9 for 1)
Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 28 risking 28 for 1)
Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 18 risking 18 for 1)
+0.4 units a winning day on the individual system. Hopefully this one will go back in profit soon. Starting bank 100 Current bank 94.46 Number of bets 15 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 80% Yield Profit (or Loss) -5.54
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy Grrr, im not liking these 7.1 odds. Think i will stay away from them lol 2 multiples contained em and both 7.1 matches lost. #20th March

1Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 11.13) (2-2)
2Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.96) (2-0) :nana
3Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 5.07) (3-0):nana
4Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 7.1) (0-2) :@
5Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 6.3) (4-2) :nana
6Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 38.16) (3-1):nana
7Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 21.81) (2-0):nana
Stake 5 @ 2.29 Starting bank 100 Current bank 90 Total staked 10 Number of bets 2 Winning bets 0 Losing bets 2 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -10
Aston Villa v Wolves (Laying Wolves @ 10 Risking 10 for 1 unit)
Everton v Bolton (Laying Bolton @ 8.2 risking 8.2 for 1)
Fiorentina v Genoa (Laying Genoa @ 4.8 for 1)
Deportivo v Valladolid (Laying Valladolid @ 6.6 risking 6.6 for 1)
Roma v Udinese (Laying Udinese @ 5.9 risking 5.9 for 1)
Real Madrid v Gijon (Laying Gijon @ 28 risking 28 for 1)
Arsenal v West Ham (Laying West Ham @ 18 risking 18 for 1)
-0.4 units ( i am not sober enough to calculate right now) will fix this up after. Starting bank 100 Current bank 94.46 Number of bets 15 Winning bets 12 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 80% Yield Profit (or Loss) -5.54
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy 22march

1Man Utd v Liverpool (Laying Liverpool @ 5.97) (2-1)
2AC Milan v Napoli (Laying Napoli @ 7.79) (1-1)
3Valencia v Almeria (Laying Almeria @ 6.64) (2-0)
4Zaragoza v Barcelona (Laying Zaragoza @ 12.99) (2-4)
5Blackburn v Chelsea (Laying Blackburn @ 9.67) (1-1)
First winner! Nearly evened out collecting the full-house/multi 1out of 3 times. Lets get more W's on the board. Multiple Lay System Return +11.45 Individual Lay System Return + 5units :cash Multiple Lay system Stake 5 @ 2.29 Starting bank 100 Current bank 96.45 Total staked 15 Number of bets 3 Winning bets 1 Losing bets 2 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -3.55 Individual Lay System: Starting bank 100 Current bank 99.46 Number of bets 20 Winning bets 17 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 80% Yield Profit (or Loss) -0.54 So we are nearly back square with 1 successful win. Selections for tonight/tomorrow will be up soon when i come home.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy Thanks Shadow. Apologies i havent been around. So much things to get done... one for the 25th

1Mexico v Iceland (Laying Iceland @ 17.59)
2Cruzeiro v Deportivo Italia (Laying Deportivo Italia @ 29.5)
3Bragantino (Bra) v Sao Paulo (Laying Bragantino (Bra) @ 5.52)
4Corinthians v Paulista (Laying Paulista @ 15.58)
5Vasco da Gama v Americano FC (Laying Americano FC @ 14.92)
Multi 5 @ 1.53 This will be drastic on the individual system if i have a few go against me. :hope
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Re: XDs laying underdogs strategy #Lesson learned: never make selections when you have a million other things to do.

1Mexico v Iceland (Laying Iceland @ 17.59) (0-0)
2Cruzeiro v Deportivo Italia (Laying Deportivo Italia @ 29.5) (2-0)
3Bragantino (Bra) v Sao Paulo (Laying Bragantino (Bra) @ 5.52) (1-0)
4Corinthians v Paulista (Laying Paulista @ 15.58) (0-1)
5Vasco da Gama v Americano FC (Laying Americano FC @ 14.92) (2-3)
Multiple system: -5 Individual System -34.02 units Multiple Lay system Stake 5 @ 1.53 Starting bank 100 Current bank 91.45 Total staked 20 Number of bets 4 Winning bets 1 Losing bets 3 Strike rate 25% Yield Profit (or Loss) -8.55 Individual Lay System: Starting bank 100 Current bank 65.44 Number of bets 25 Winning bets 19 Losing bets 6 Strike rate Yield Profit (or Loss) -34.56
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...