Soccer computer prediction (part_2)

[coolek]

I have already published a system of calculating the probability of a football match, but it was not successful.Now-part 2.Programm uses seasonal statistics of teams, H2H, rating simulation and score calculation. Good luck guys!

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Premier League Wigan Aston Villa Score prediction: 0:1 U/O: Under 65% 1x2: 31%-33%-36% Verdict:Under 1.66 (local bokie) 1:2 LOSE

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Championship Crystal Palace Leicester City Score prediction: 0:1 U/O: Under 67% 1x2: 37%-33%-30% Verdict:Under 1.6(local bokie) 0:1 WIN (correct score)

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Championship Plymouth Bristol City Score prediction: 1:1 U/O: Under 60% 1x2: 35%-33%-32% Verdict:Under 1.72(local bokie) 3:2 LOSE

[shadowvkc]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) can i ask what software you are using?

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Premier Newtown AFC Port Talbot Score prediction: 0:1 U/O: Under 52% 1x2: 29%-19%-52% Verdict:AFC Port Talbot win 2.1 (local bokie) 2:2 LOSE

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Premier League St Johnstone Aberdeen FC Score prediction: 2:1 U/O: Under 55% 1x2: 49%-25%-26% Verdict: risk! St Johnstone win 2.25 (local bokie) 1:0 WIN

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2)

can i ask what software you are using?

my friends soft - Socall

[Grex]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Interesting... but I am rather confused by some of the predictions..... for example;

Championship Crystal Palace Leicester City Score prediction: 0:1 U/O: Under 67% 1x2: 37%-33%-30% Verdict:Under 1.6(local bokie)

the 1X2 gives Leicester only a 30% probability of winning, and yet the score prediction is 0-1..... seems a bit strange. :unsure

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) It`s easy Score prediction and 1x2 prediction are 2 different algorithms. Sorry for bad english

[Grex]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) OK.... so the 1X2 and correct score predictions are based on different algorithms. It would appear that the O/U percentage is based on a third algorithm (example... St Johnstone v Aberdeen... 55% Under probability, but correct score 2-1). So, basically you have 3 different statistical systems, sometimes producing conflicting predictions. My question is.... how do you select your "verdict" on each match ? By the way.... don't publish the results by editing the original post.... it's against the "rules". Some unscrupulous people could change their original predictions ;) PS - don't worry about your English... it looks pretty good to me :ok

[methuselah]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Downloaded the trial version of software. Interesting. Will see how it goes this weekend.

[shadowvkc]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Well from what i can see it prediceted 3 out of 4 on the outcome of the games....

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2)

OK.... so the 1X2 and correct score predictions are based on different algorithms. It would appear that the O/U percentage is based on a third algorithm (example... St Johnstone v Aberdeen... 55% Under probability, but correct score 2-1).

1x2 and U/O it`s one algorithm, score prediction - other algorithm

So, basically you have 3 different statistical systems, sometimes producing conflicting predictions. My question is.... how do you select your "verdict" on each match ?

should not contradict the score calculation and be "value" (P%*ODDs>100)

By the way.... don't publish the results by editing the original post.... it's against the "rules". Some unscrupulous people could change their original predictions ;)

Ok. you right :-)

PS - don't worry about your English... it looks pretty good to me :ok

electronic translators step to unite the nations :-)

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Date Team1 Team2 1 X 2 Un. Ov. 17.03.2010 Newcastle Scunthorpe 72% 20% 8% 46% 54% Score: 4:0 17.03.2010 Exeter City Bristol Rovers 35% 31% 34% 51% 49% Score: 0:0 Not value-not bet

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Hamburger SV Schalke 04 Score prediction: 0:0 U/O: Under 53% 1x2: 37%-25%-38% Verdict:not value

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Freiburg Mainz 05 Score prediction: 0:1 U/O: Under 53% 1x2: 24%-34%-42% Verdict:x2 Odds: 1.55

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Werder Bremen Bochum Score prediction: 1:2 U/O: Over 64% 1x2: 51%-27%-22% Verdict:x2 Odds: 3.15

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Wolfsburg Hertha BSC Score prediction: 1:2 U/O: Over 68% 1x2: 51%-22%-27% Verdict:x2, over Odds: 2.55, 1.55 Borussia Dortmund Bayer Leverkusen Score prediction: 3:2 U/O: Over 59% 1x2: 33%-27%-40% Verdict:over Odds: 1.8 Nurnberg FC Hoffenheim 1899 Score prediction: 1:1 U/O: Over 52% 1x2: 35%-26%-39% Verdict:not value Odds: no bet

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Keln FC Munchengladbach Score prediction: 2:1 U/O: Over 55% 1x2: 36%-30%-34% Verdict:Over Odds: 2.05 VfB Stuttgart Hannover 96 Score prediction: 3:1 U/O: Over 56% 1x2: 53%-26%-21% Verdict:not value Odds: no bet Eintracht Frankfurt Bayern Munchen Score prediction: 1:2 U/O: Over 57% 1x2: 24%-26%-50% Verdict:not value Odds: no bet

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Date Team1 Team2 1 X 2 Under Over Verdict Odds 20.03.2010 Manchester United Liverpool 61% 18% 21% 48% 52% 1 1,75 20.03.2010 Arsenal West Ham 74% 20% 6% 46% 54% not value 20.03.2010 Sunderland Birmingham City 42% 29% 29% 56% 44% not value 20.03.2010 Wigan Burnley 57% 24% 19% 53% 47% 1 1,75 20.03.2010 Stoke City Tottenham 36% 32% 32% 54% 46% 1X 1,69 20.03.2010 Portsmouth Hull City 48% 26% 26% 49% 51% 1 2,15 Over 2.0 20.03.2010 Everton Bolton Wanderers 62% 19% 19% 44% 56% Over 1,8 20.03.2010 Aston Villa Wolverhampton 63% 26% 11% 47% 53% not value 20.03.2010 Blackburn Rovers Chelsea 24% 24% 52% 54% 46% 1X 2,65 Under 1.95 20.03.2010 Fulham Manchester City 41% 34% 25% 51% 49% 1X 1,58

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Fortuna Dusseldorf Kaiserslautern 44% 27% 29% 55% 45% 1X 1.52 Hansa Rostock Duisburg MSV 35% 24% 41% 48% 52% 2(0) 1,88 Rot-Weiss Oberhausen Karlsruher SC 45% 19% 36% 49% 51% TuS Koblenz Greuther Furth 43% 24% 33% 47% 53% 1X 1,62 Energie Cottbus St. Pauli 46% 15% 39% 36% 64% Arminia Bielefeld Paderborn 07 52% 24% 24% 52% 48% Union Berlin Aachen 46% 29% 25% 62% 38% UNDER 1.75, 1(0) 1.62 Munchen 1860 FSV Frankfurt 55% 25% 20% 46% 54% Augsburg Rot Weiss Ahlen 49% 33% 18% 56% 44% UNDER 2,05

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) Espanyol Sevilla 41% 19% 40% 51% 49% 1x 1,65 Deportivo Valladolid 60% 20% 20% 42% 58% 1 1,65 Athletic Bilbao Getafe 52% 19% 29% 58% 42% 1 2,1 Valencia Almeria 55% 29% 16% 46% 54% x2 2,4 Mallorca Atletico Madrid 55% 25% 20% 59% 41% 1 2,15 Under 1,9 Osasuna Racing Santander 36% 31% 33% 64% 36% x2 1,75 Under 1,67 Malaga Villarreal 42% 26% 32% 52% 48% 1(0) 2

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) 19.03.2010 Nantes Dijon 42% 37% 21% 53% 47% X2 1,8 19.03.2010 Guingamp Metz 29% 48% 23% 64% 36% X 2,9 Under 1,55 19.03.2010 Clermont Vannes 45% 28% 27% 60% 40% X2 1,8 Under 1,65 19.03.2010 Chateauroux Tours 38% 34% 28% 59% 41% X2 1,6 22.03.2010 Angers Caen 42% 31% 27% 56% 44% 1X 1,49

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) 20.03.2010 Yokohama F Kawasaki Frontale 39% 22% 39% 47% 53% Over 1,95 20.03.2010 Omiya Ardija Kashima Antlers 31% 30% 39% 59% 41% Under 1,72 20.03.2010 Gamba Osaka Albirex Niigata 40% 24% 36% 53% 47% Under 1,95 20.03.2010 Shimizu S-Pulse Vissel Kobe 55% 27% 18% 66% 34% Under 1,65

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) 19.03.2010 Kapfenberger Wiener Neustadt 41% 30% 29% 49% 51% 1X 1,43 20.03.2010 Mattersburg LASK Linz 54% 21% 25% 39% 61% 1 2,1 20.03.2010 Austria Karnten Ried 26% 34% 40% 55% 45% Under 1,95 20.03.2010 Sturm Graz Rapid Wien 49% 29% 22% 45% 55% 1 2,45 Over 1,8 21.03.2010 Austria Wien Salzburg 36% 31% 33% 52% 48% 1X 1,53

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) 19.03.2010 Tranmere Hartlepool 49% 19% 32% 47% 53% 1 2,1 20.03.2010 Doncaster Sheffield Utd 48% 29% 23% 54% 46% 1 2,3 20.03.2010 Nottingham Forest Peterborough 67% 14% 19% 60% 40% Under 1,84 20.03.2010 Blackpool FC Crystal Palace 37% 37% 26% 58% 42% Under 1,8 21.03.2010 Standard Liege Gent 42% 29% 29% 48% 52% X2 1,89 21.03.2010 Roeselare Westerlo 30% 20% 50% 50% 50% 2 3,45 21.03.2010 Lokeren Anderlecht 26% 25% 49% 60% 40% Under 2,12 19.03.2010 Heerenveen NEC Nijmegen 46% 23% 31% 49% 51% X2 2,01 21.03.2010 Den Haag Venlo 46% 26% 28% 49% 51% 1(0) 1,6 21.03.2010 Groningen Roda JC 53% 22% 25% 54% 46% Under 2,08 19.03.2010 Telstar Cambuur 31% 23% 46% 32% 68% 1X 2,15 19.03.2010 Maastricht Fortuna Sittard 52% 28% 20% 45% 55% X2 2,12 19.03.2010 De Graafschap Volendam 54% 24% 22% 26% 74% Over 1,49 19.03.2010 Emmen Veendam 40% 24% 36% 32% 68% Over 1,53 18.03.2010 Rapid Bucuresti Astra Ploiesti 66% 22% 12% 49% 51% Over 1,96

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) 19.03.2010 Murcia Hercules CF 32% 44% 24% 65% 35% 1X 1,46 20.03.2010 Las Palmas Recreativo 40% 40% 20% 65% 35% X2 1,69 Under 1,55 20.03.2010 Villarreal B Real Union 60% 31% 9% 62% 38% 1 1,85 Under 1,67 20.03.2010 Celta Vigo Cartagena 32% 41% 27% 62% 38% X2 1,63 21.03.2010 Huesca Salamanca 37% 42% 21% 62% 38% 1X 1,33 21.03.2010 Real Sociedad Levante 49% 36% 15% 61% 39% Under 1,67 21.03.2010 Cadiz Rayo Vallecano 38% 35% 27% 58% 42% 1X 1,38 21.03.2010 Girona FC Numancia 42% 23% 35% 61% 39% 1(0) 1,7 22.03.2010 Betis Castellin 67% 24% 9% 40% 60% 1 1,5 19.03.2010 Reggina Lecce 33% 31% 36% 48% 52% X2 1,53 19.03.2010 Piacenza Ancona 47% 26% 27% 55% 45% 1 2,45 20.03.2010 Triestina Empoli FC 47% 27% 26% 58% 42% 1 2,55 20.03.2010 Grosseto Sassuolo 42% 33% 25% 46% 54% 1X 1,38 20.03.2010 Crotone Frosinone 46% 29% 25% 46% 54% 1(0) 1,55 19.03.2010 Kasimpasa Istanbul Besiktas 24% 24% 52% 42% 58% Over 1,95 20.03.2010 Diyarbakirspor Antalyaspor 36% 31% 33% 48% 52% Over 1,95 21.03.2010 Trabzonspor Galatasaray 36% 24% 40% 45% 55% Over 1,95 21.03.2010 Sivasspor Genclerbirligi 52% 18% 30% 52% 48% 1 2,15 21.03.2010 Ankaragucu MKE Kayserispor 29% 31% 40% 52% 48% X2 1,48 22.03.2010 Bursaspor Denizlispor 62% 18% 20% 54% 46% Under 1,95

[Lardonio]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2)

OK.... so the 1X2 and correct score predictions are based on different algorithms. It would appear that the O/U percentage is based on a third algorithm (example... St Johnstone v Aberdeen... 55% Under probability' date= but correct score 2-1). So, basically you have 3 different statistical systems, sometimes producing conflicting predictions. My question is.... how do you select your "verdict" on each match ?

Correct score 2-1 and U2,5 does not need to be conflicting. I would quite happily bet on both if offered value odds on both. I'd back the draw as well, provided I got value odds. I'm not saying these algorithms are any good and produce value, because I know nothing about them, but it's possible to have algorithms (different or the same) produce conflicting predictions in different markets, all with value. At least in theory :tongue2

[coolek]

Re: Soccer computer prediction (part_2) My idea is to take the overall result based on convergent results of several algorithms. In turn, each algorithm has a weighted components of statistical trends (eg overall statistics).