thepinkpunter Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 I created this new thread because I got many complains the old one was to complex. You can find it here: http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/statistical-correct-score-betting-football-soccer-98860/#post1628099 Please read the old thread for further explanations. I will only write down the score to bet, the games and the stakes. Later on I will add the odds for the games. All Correct Score bets are on the big betting exchange. Other bets will be on a small pool of traditionell bookmakers. Some notices about the stakes to bet: - One unit is the standard bet. For the tracking it equals 10 € / $ / £ . - There will be half unit bets or even third or quarter bets for very high odds or more than one bet on a game. - There will be bets with two unit or even more on very rentabel systems or when its not a correct score bet, f.e. a simple draw bet. Another important thing: I will set two categoeries for tracking now. Normal picks, now named "European Picks" are based on systems which used the data of several different european leagues (up to 30 leagues). The other picks will be league specific, which means the system is only created for this league. So far there were nearly only be "normal" picks, in the future there will be more and more league specific system - if they work nearly as good as the european systems... The record @ 2010-03-16 19:00 CET is: European Picks (EP): 645 € risked 1208,88 € payout --- + 533.88 after 5.0 % commision League Specific Picks (LSP): 30 € risked 0,00 € payout --- - 30 after 5.0 % commision Picks for today will follow in a few minutes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now European Picks: 0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro) Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50 Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50 League Specific Picks: 0-0 - 1 Unit Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50 Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5 Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0 GL for all who follow... may all the strikers have a bad day today ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 16, 2010 Author Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Today a loosing day, with some bad luck: European Picks: 0-0 - 1 Unit (10 Euro) - 10 Stockport - Oldham @ 10.50 - result: 0-1 - 10 Swansea - Westbrom @ 10.50 - result: 0-2 (two late goals) League Specific Picks: 0-0 - 1 Unit - 10 Sheffield United vs Blackpool @ 11.50 - result: 3-0 - 10 Reading vs Queens park @ 13.5 - result: 1-0 (85th minute) - 10 Preston Orth End - Sheffield Wed @ 12.0 - result: 2-2 New record: European Picks (EP): 665 € risked 1208,88 € payout --- + 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision League Specific Picks (LSP): 50 € risked 0,00 € payout --- - 50 € after 5.0 % commision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Picks based on league specific systems: 0-0 --- 1 Unit Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5 Newcastle - Scunthorpe 0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34 0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22 Away = 0,5 Units @ 12 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now adding for newcastle game: 0,5 untis any unquoted @ 4.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now 0-0 --- 1 Unit Grasshoppers - Sion @ 18.5 result: 2-0 Newcastle - Scunthorpe result: 3-0 0-1 = 0,3 Units @ 34 0-0 = 0,2 Units @ 22 Any Unquoted = 0,5 @ 4.5 Away = 0,5 Units @ 12 New record: European Picks (EP): 665 € risked 1208,88 € payout --- + 513.88 € after 5.0 % commision League Specific Picks (LSP): 75 € risked 0,00 € payout --- - 75 € after 5.0 % commision Stay tuned for a new system idea in a few minutes... :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 18, 2010 Author Share Posted March 18, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Since I was not happy about the late goals at the 0-0 picks I checked out how many 0-0 picks had at 0-0 at half time. There were 36 0-0 picks so far which which result 17 times 0-0 at half time. The real odds (after commision) at Betfair are slightly above 3.0 as could see so far, maybe around 3.20 in the middle. With the strike rate of so far of 47.22 % this would have been a yield of 50 % so far with flat betting. The new system is quite simple: every game which is a 0-0 full time bet is also a half time 0-0 bet. The tracking will be on one side the "normal betting" with different stakes and the on the other hand a chasing system with two stages. Example with 3.20 Betfair / 3.10 real odds to win 50 € A: risk 23.25 to win 50.00 B: risk 34.07 to win 73.25 (- 23.25 of A = 50.00) If two bets in a row are lost its a total loss of 57.32 in this example. At a strike rate of 45% 0-0 at half time a lost serie should be the case in 30 %. In the other 70 % it would be a profit of 50 € . 3 * - 57.32 = - 172 € 7 * + 50.00 = + 350 € = + 178 There will be several series at one time with different starting stakes like on the normal betting systems. I dont like to chase more than two stages because I think its just too much stress for the mind having too much on one bet, even its more profit in the long term. Lets see how it will work out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now European systems: 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units Picks based on league specific systems: 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units 2-1 - Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit 2-1 - Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units Half Time 0-0 Picks: Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units Other Correct Score Half Time Markets are not avaible for fridays games on bf. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now European systems: --- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result: --- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result: --- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result: - 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result: --- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50 Picks based on league specific systems: - 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result: --- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result: --- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result: --- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result: --- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result: Half Time 0-0 Picks: - 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- result: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Today another winning day :) Total risk of 195 € and a payout of 268.54 € which is a profit of + 73.54 € (Yield 38 %) European Picks systems: - 15 --- 0-0 Le Havre - Bastia - 1,5 units @ 10.0 --- result: 3-1 - 7.5 --- 0-0 Guingamp - Metz - 0,75 unit @ 8.40 --- result: 2-1 + 64.60 --- 1-0 + 0-0 Strasbourg - Brest --- 1 + 1 units @ 8.80 + 10.0 --- result: 1-0 - 15 --- 0-0 Spartak Nalchik - Wladikawkas (Alania Vladikavkaz) - 1,5 units @ 8.60 --- result: - 20--- 2-0 Heerenveen - Nijmegen --- 2 units @ 10.50 --- result: 4-1 --- Total Today EuropeanPicks: Risk: 77.50 Payout: 84.60 Profit: + 7.10 Picks based on league specific systems: - 20 --- 0-0 Koblenz - Furth --- 2 units --- result: 2-0 - 10 --- 2-1 Clermont - Vannes OC --- 1 unit @ 10.5 --- result: 1-0 - 10 --- 2-1 Ajaccio - Istres --- 1 unit @ 10.0 --- result: 1-2 + 78.75 --- 2-0 + 2-1 Guingamp - Metz --- 0,75 + 0,75 units @ 13.5 + 13.0 --- result: 2-1 + 67.69 --- 2-0 + 0-0 + 0-1 Nantes - Dijon --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 @ 11.0 + 10.0 + 12.5 units --- result: 0-1 Total Today LeagueSpecificPicks: Risk: 77.50 Payout: 183.94 Profit: + 106.44 Half Time 0-0 Picks: - 40 --- Serie 1, Bet 1: Koblenz - Furth --- 4 units @ 3.05 --- half time result: 1-0 Risk: 40 Payout: 0 Profit: -40 Around 40 Picks for tommorow for the different systems coming later this evening. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 19, 2010 Author Share Posted March 19, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now New record: European Picks (EP): 742.50 € risked 1293.48 € payout --- + 550.98 € after 5.0 % commision League Specific Picks (LSP): 152.50 € risked 183.94 € payout --- + 31.44 € after 5.0 % commision 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): 40 € risked 0,00 € payout --- - 40 € after 5.0 % commision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Okay guys, I shortened it down to around 20 games for this saturday; I had many more but I think only few want to have an endless list of small bets... Also forget about the chasing system for the 0-0 Half Time system at first. I want to keep it as simple as possible. Here is what I got. The odds will come tommorow. European systems: Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds: Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: Picks based on league specific systems: Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 0,5 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now - Added odds European systems: Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odd: 10 + 12.5 Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: 10.5 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: 12.0 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: 10.5 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: 15 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: 40 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: 10.0 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: 11 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: 12.5 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.0 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: 13.5 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: 11.0 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 Picks based on league specific systems: Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: 11.5 + 7.4 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: 7.6 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston North End --- 0,5 units --- odd: 19 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 10.5 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: 2.86 Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: 3.05 Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: 3.05 Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: 3.0 Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: 3.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now another winning day with a + of around 60 € (15 % Yield) - details later Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 20, 2010 Author Share Posted March 20, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Thank you! European systems: - 15 Bet: 1-0 + 2-1 --- Game: Aberdeen - Dundee --- 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odd: 10 + 12.5 --- result: 2-2 - 10 Bet: 0-1 --- Game: Freiburg - Mainz --- 1 unit --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 1-0 - 20 Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Hamilton Aca. - Falkrik --- 2 units --- odd: 12.0 --- result: 2-2 + 135.38 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Zaglebie Lubin - Polonia Warsaw --- 1,5 units --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 2-0 - 20 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Grenoble Foot - Monaco --- 2 units --- odd: 15 --- result: 0-0 - 05 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Brommapojkarna vs AIK Stockholm (Solna) --- 0,5 units --- odd: 40 --- result: 0-0 - 10 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Stade Rennes - Toulouse --- 2 units --- odd: 10.0 --- result: 4-1 - 10 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 1 unit --- odd: 11 --- result: 1-1 - 20 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 2 units --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 1-1 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Scunthorpe - Plymouth --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.0 --- result: 2-1 - 15 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Darlington - Barnet --- 1,5 units --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 1-2 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Wycombe - Exeter --- 1 unit --- odd: 11.0 --- result: 2-2 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 3-2 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Torquay - Lincoln --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 2-3 Total Risk: 180 Payout: 150.38 Profit: - 29.62 Picks based on league specific systems: + 41.80 --- Bet: 0-0 + 1-1 --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 2 units + 1 unit --- odds: 11.5 + 7.4 --- result: 1-1 - 15 --- Bet: 2-0 --- Game: Nottingham - Peterborough --- 1,5 units --- odd: 7.6 --- result: 1-0 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Silkeborg - Midtjylland --- 1 unit --- odd: 13.5 --- result: 0-2 + 109.25 Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 1 unit --- odd: 12.5 --- result: 0-0 - 05 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: West Brom - Preston North End --- 0,5 units --- odd: 19 --- result: 3-2 - 15 --- Bet: 0-0 --- Game: Auxerre - Le Mans --- 1,5 unit --- odd: 10.5 --- result: 2-1 Total Risk: 85 Payout: 191.05 Profit: + 106.05 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): - 40 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Doncaster - Sheffield United --- 4 units --- odd: 2.86 --- result: 1-0 + 38.95--- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Eindhoven - Enschede --- 3 units --- odd: 3.05 --- result: 0-0 - 25 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Portsmouth - Hull --- 2,5 units --- odd: 3.05 --- result: 1-1 + 19 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: Sheffield Wed - Derby --- 2 units --- odd: 3.0 --- result: 0-0 - 10 --- Bet: 0-0 Half Time --- Game: West Brom - Preston Nothe End --- 1 unit --- odd: 3.8 --- result: 3-2 Total Risk: 125 Payout: 107.95 Profit: - 17.05 --------------------------- New record: European Picks (EP): 922.50 € risked 1443.86 € payout --- + 521.36 € after 5.0 % commision Payout: 150.38 Profit: - 29.62 League Specific Picks (LSP): 237.50 € risked 375.99 € payout --- + 137.49 € after 5.0 % commision 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): Total Risk: 165 Payout: 107.95 --- - 57.05 € after 5.0 % commision Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now 20 Games for sunday. GL for all who bet on it... European systems: Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.32 --- result: Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1,5 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: Picks based on league specific systems: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + --- result: Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 20 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: 0-0 Half Time System: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd--- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 3 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd --- result: I wonder if anybody is interested in all this? Its a lot of work and have nice results so far but nobody leaves a comment!? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now ...promising system i folow u wt intrest, move on... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now nice to hear... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lawalahmed Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Honestly, dis is alot of work it take me 2hrs to place d bet becos i,m doing it on my phone, keep posting everybody know it require alot of ur time and our time but who care if it keep bring it purpose...:cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laybackandrelax Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Hi Punter Me too,I'm following your system since two days.Great results! Thanks a lot for sharing it!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oddz Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Fantastic start, do you use only the german software? No other data or personal aspects etc. ? It looks like backtesting results gives a serious look into the future. Thanks for sharing :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now thanks for your feedback! which bookie do you place the bets over the phone for this picks? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Updated odds and shortened down the units for the norwegian games this evening. European systems: Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result: Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- 17.5 odd --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1 Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1 Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: --- units down from 1,5 to 1 Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result: Picks based on league specific systems: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 11.5 --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result: Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds + 20 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd --- result: 0-0 Half Time System: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 3 units --- odd --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd --- result: 2.9 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd --- result: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Fantastic start, do you use only the german software? No other data or personal aspects etc. ? It looks like backtesting results gives a serious look into the future. Thanks for sharing :) its just the software, but i also filter out personally. I see it like that: if a constelation has a logic theory why the system should generates f.e. 0-0s and has a yield for the last two season around 100 % and also for this season so far, its worth to bet it on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 21, 2010 Author Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Updating Odds, Adding first Results Just Odds for belgium games this evening are not rdy yet. European systems: Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result: Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd 17.5 --- result: Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds --- result: - 20 Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd 13.0 --- result: - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result: Picks based on league specific systems: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 7.4 + 11.5 --- result: Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result: Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 20 + 10.5--- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result: Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd 11 --- result: 0-0 Half Time System: - 40 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result: loss Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 2 units --- odd 3.15 --- result: --- shortened down from 3 to 2 units - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 1-0 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result: Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd 2.90 --- result: + 58.43 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 0-0 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd 2.92 --- result: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sodabrab Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Appears to be an a very good system, got onboard from today lets hope we get off to a nice start. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davidc Posted March 21, 2010 Share Posted March 21, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Hi thepinkpunter: Looks like a nice system you have got going there. I wonder if anybody is interested in all this? Its a lot of work and have nice results so far but nobody leaves a comment!? It can be lonely posting bets for your system with little feedback, but most (especially winning) systems have plenty of lurkers viewing posts, so don't feel discouraged. Looking at your recent change to backing 0-0 at half time as well as full time, I don't know of you did any back testing before introducing this but it seems to me that it may be better to back only 0-0 at half time rather than both. This would of course be dependent on whether this type of bet produces a better profit margin than 0-0 at full time. Good luck. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 22, 2010 Author Share Posted March 22, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now yesterday was a losing day. details later. i was away the whole day so i am too late for picks goteborg - hacken 1-0 today wih 1,5 units and brondy vs randers 1-1 & 2-1 each 1 unit. but there is one pick starting in 30 minutes: angers vs caen 0-0 / 1-0 and 2-0 each 1 unit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 23, 2010 Author Share Posted March 23, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now European systems: + 48.64 Bet: Over 2,5 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 4 units --- odd 2.28 (not 2.32, was not fully matched as I thought) --- result: - 7.50 Bet: 2-1 --- Bordeaux - Lille --- 0,75 units --- odd 10.0--- result: 3-1 - 10 Bet: 2-0 --- Groningen - Krekrade --- 1 unit --- odd 10.5 --- result: 1-0 - 15 Bet: 2-0 --- Djurgardens - Helsingborg --- 1,5 units --- odd 17.5 --- result: 0-1 - 15 Bet: 2-0 --- AC milan - Napoli --- 1,5 units units --- odd 8.8 --- result: 1-1 - 22.50 Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Roeselare - Westerloo --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds ... --- result: 0-0 - 22.50 Bet: 1-0 + 2-0 + 2-1 --- Genk - Kortrijk --- 0,75 + 0,75 + 0,75 units --- odds ... --- result: 1-1 - 20 Bet: 0-0 --- koge - aalborg - --- 2 units --- odd 13.0 --- result: 0-3 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- sandefjord - molde --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: 3-1 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- kongsvinger - odd grenland --- 1 unit --- odd 14.0 --- result: 1-2 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- haugesund - stromsgodset --- 1 unit --- odd 13.0 --- result: 2-2 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 1 unit --- odd 12 --- result: 2-1 - 15 Bet: 0-0 --- xanthi - tripolis --- 1,5 unit --- odd 8.8 --- result: 2-0 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 1 unit --- odd 9.2 --- result: 3-0 - 30 Bet: 0-0 1-0 2-0 --- Angers vs Caen --- 1 + 1 + 1 unit --- ... --- result: 2-2 Total Risk: 247.50 Payout: 88.64 Profit: - 158.64 Picks based on league specific systems: - 15 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Koge - Aalborg --- 1 + 0.5 units --- odds 8.6 + 23.0 --- result: 0-3 - 20 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Nordsjælland - Esbjerg --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 7.4 + 11.5 --- result: 1-0 - 20 Bet: 1-1 + 2-1 --- Odense - Aarhus (OB vs AGF) --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 10.0 + 11.0 --- result: 2-0 - 20 Bet: 2-0 + 0-0 --- Fulham - Man City --- 1 + 1 units --- odds 20 + 10.5--- result: 1-2 - 15 Bet: 0-0 --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 1,5 units --- odd 11.0 --- result: 1-0 - 05 Bet: 0-0 --- Zurich - Bellinzona --- 0,5 units --- odd 24.0 --- result: 2-0 - 10 Bet: 0-0 --- Leicester - Coventry --- 1 unit --- odd 11 --- result: 2-2 Risk Total: 105 Payout: 0.00 Profit: - 105 0-0 Half Time System: - 40 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- koge - aalborg - --- 4 units --- odd 3.25--- result: 0-1 - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- sandefjord - molde --- 2 units --- odd 3.15 --- result: --- 0-1 - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- 1860 vs frankfurt --- 2 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 1-0 + 48.45 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- xanthi - tripolis --- 3 units --- odd 2.70--- result: 0-0 - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Atalanta Bergamo - Livorno --- 2 units --- odd 2.68 --- result: 1-0 - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Fulham - Man City --- 2 units --- odd 2.90 --- result: 0-2 + 58.43 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Oberhausen - Karlsruhe --- 3 units --- odd 3.05 --- result: 0-0 - 20 Bet: 0-0 Halftime --- Leicester - Coventry --- 2 units --- odd 2.92 --- result: 2-0 Total Risk: 200 Payout: 166.88 Profit: - 33.12 ----------------- New record: European Picks (EP): 1170.00 € risked 1532.50 € payout --- + 362.50 € after 5.0 % commision League Specific Picks (LSP): 342.50 € risked 375.99 € payout --- + 32.49 € after 5.0 % commision 0-0 Half Time Picks (0-0HT): Total Risk: 365 Payout: 224.83 --- - 140.17 € after 5.0 % commision --- This Half Time system test ends hear :( Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thepinkpunter Posted March 26, 2010 Author Share Posted March 26, 2010 Re: Statistical Correct Score Betting for Football / Soccer - simplified now Missed a couple of nice wins during the week because the data archive was not up to date and i was too lazy to fill in all results manually. For today we have... a few picks, but lets start with 2. Bundesliga: 0-0 --- FSV Frankfurt - Union Berlin --- 2 units @ 10.0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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