Testing Robustness of a System

[wettspou]

Hi guys, I maybe registered to this forum since 2005, but I have been inactive until 1-2 months ago and after reading, reading, reading, reading and my first attempts in setting up a system I am wondering: How many papertesting does a new system need, before I can be sure it is profitable? Lets say I am looking for a system to give me a ROI of 10%. What tests do I have to use? Can I be sure after only a few hundred bets that my system is indeed profitable? Are there any Tutorials on this because I couldn't find any. Further down on this page is this thread http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/question-statistical-significance-98762/ but I don't really understand it hehe. So any help would be appreciated :) Edit: Hmpf, I just realized I posted in the wrong forum... Please feel free to move my thread over the the betting help :) Thanks alot!

[leskane]

Re: Testing Robustness of a System It doesn't take much of paper testing once you have the system and database to test on. From my experience, which pretty much included testing every soccer rating system out there, you will need historical data of at least 2 seasons from 4-5 different leagues in order to find out whether the system is indeed profitable. Less data might lead you into belief that you have found the Holy Grail, when the general rule of thumb says that 'there are no miracles in this world'. :-)