Question on Statistical significance

[Mr Bookie Buster]

Hi all Extremely long time lurker! I have recently been working on a system which enables me to successfully, up to now anyway, select Under 2.5 goal bets. So far I have compiled 150 bets over a couple of months and I am running at just over a 63% win rate. Most of the bets I make come in odds wise at around 1.80. My question is this. My system seems to be going well but I am more than aware that I need to build up a much bigger sample to confirm that it is indeed successful. So does anybody know exactly how many bets I would have to make to be sure that my current 63% hit rate is no fluke? Thanks in advance for your input.

[leskane]

Re: Question on Statistical significance One simple way to check whether your system is stable is to build a chart of number of bets v.s. win rate. For example, assume that for 20 bets your win rate is 70%, for 40 your win rate is 85%, and so on as follows: 20-70% 40-85% 60-77% 80-60% 100-61% 120-63% 140-63% 160-63% ..... 300-63% In this example 120 bets is enough to be sure that your hit rate of 63% is stable, since for larger number of bets your chart is saturated.