System Thos

[hexaform]

I will experiment from today a strategy that is from my own creativity and personal choice that i will test the hexa outsider system . that i will call THOS.Please feel free to read it but i will post my bet so it is not yet confirm that system is a good strike rate so keep an eye on me only i will advise to not follow my tips just yet until result proven ;) The strategy that i am going to adopt with this method is to choose Handicap races, both Flat & National Hunt Chases are acceptable but NOT National Hunt Hurdles. This formula is designed to locate the best value betting proposition of any racing day, ie. a long priced horse with a realistic chance of winning.

Clearly, handicaps are the races in which a plan based on outsiders is most likely to succeed. They are more open than other kinds of races and winners and placed horses start at good odds. The difficulty of course is to locate viable bets at long prices when the basis of any good system must be form. Well it is my belief that a combination of factors - one statistical and one form related, can in fact be used to pick out an outsider with a real chance each day.

As far as statistics are concerned, a survey over a three year period demonstrated beyond all doubt that in flat handicaps horses near the top of the weights hold the best chance of success. Class tells in racing, so they say and this is borne out by results in handicaps just as much as in other types of event.

Here are the figures which underline the point:

48% of the winners of all flat handicaps are one of the top four in the weights.

62% of all winners come from the top six in the weights.

These percentages point to trends in the overall pattern of results that are just too pronounced to ignore. Whilst runners can and do come from lower down in the handicap, statistically they are most likely to stem from the group which heads the weights.

As for form without which no system can hope to succeed, even one based on outsiders, it is a fact that many horses with sound win and placed form in recent runs do perform well, even though the market gives them only a slender chance of success. For example any horse good enough to reach the first four in each of it's last three races must have some chance of reaching a place again and may even win, despite whatever odds are fixed by the betting ring.

The fundamental idea behind the THOS formula is to combine these high-weight and form factors in order to pick out a horse at long odds that at the very least has a definite chance of running into a place.

THE SYSTEM

In the first instance it is necessary to analyse each handicap on the days cards from the point of view of weight. This is done by applying a sliding scale based on the number of runners in a race. It is logical that in a really big field we should examine a wider range of high weighted horses in a race with fewer runners. Handicaps of ten or less contestants do not qualify for thos because starting prices are unlikely to be long enough for system purposes. for Less than 10 runners please be aware: Anyhow you can use other choice as i will probably do with the form only or compare bookmakers price early morning with an 1 hour or just before the start price and choose only an outsiders that will drift from half it is price for example 33/1 to 20/1 to 14/1 and so on. 8 runners are often a good combination. The scale is as follows:

More than 15 runners - consider the first six in the weights

13 or 14 runners - consider the first five in the weights

11 or 12 runners - consider the first four in the weights

Using this scale for every handicap race on any given day, list any horse which ran first, second, third or fourth in each of its last three public meetings and which figures in the specified weight range for the number of runners in it's race (as above).

Any horse which fulfils the criteria is qualify for Thos system. Most days you will have more than one possibility. If you prefer to just back one horse each day then select the Outsider with the biggest forecast odds. Each qualifying race must be limited to Once you have the latest prices on show our selection will be the outsider, yes that's quite right, the outsider! There is, you will be pleased to hear, a logical reason behind this, which I will now explain....

The most common thing is for Thos that will work is no matter what the quality of the field is, regardless of whether or not it is a Flat race or "over the sticks", you will, with alarming frequency, get a falsely run race, with the end result being a three mile chase turns out to be a five furlong sprint! And you can get some amazingly priced animals "trotting up".

Well, you now have the means to be on them !

THOS works equally well on the Flat as it does over fences, with the exception being Hurdles races, the reason for this is a peculiarity which is unique to hurdles.

Very few Handicap Hurdle races have less than 9 runners! Those that are less than 9 usually turn out to have just 4 or 5 runners and the prices are all pretty low, there rarely is a true "outsider" in these races and so they are best left completely alone.

The statistics that I have based this system on certainly do not warrant the inclusion of Handicap Hurdle races, and anyway, it works perfectly well without them.

STAKING ADVICE.

Because of the odds that we can expect with a winner from this system, you need only raise your bet occasionally when the circumstances dictate, and then simply as a means to cover your losses.

Example 1 (This is allowing for a longish losing sequence)

Odds £5 per point

Odds of 1.10 - 5.00 - allow stakes up to 10pts. Over 5.00 - 10.00 - allow stakes upt to 5pts or 5pts each way for horse racing & outright bets. 8-1 L Stake 5 max point 10-1 L Stake 1 point Over 10.00 - 20.00 - allow stakes upto 3pts or 3pts each way for horse racing & outright bets.

12-1 L Stake 3 max point

14-1 L Stake 3 max point 16-1 L Stake 3 max point Over 20.00 and above - limit stakes to 2pt or 2pts each way for horse racing & outright bets.

It will work perfectly adequately using this staking method, but do feel at liberty to implement your own favourite staking plan.

The advantage of using this one though is that it is safe, you will not drain your betting bank as you would if, for example, you simply doubled the stake after each bet.

But before you entertain such an idea ask yourself whether or not you would be capable of putting £400 on the 20-1 outsider of six. The chances are that you wouad bottle out, and then imagine how sick you would feel when it bolted in - this would happen at some stage, unless, that is, you have nerves of steel.

The above staking plan is simple, but it is very, very effective.

FURTHER ADVICE.

If you are at the point where you are about to increase your stake in order to cover your losses, delay placing your bet until the last possible moment, because the price of the outsider does tend to drift out just before the off.

You may have the situation where the outsider is 12-1 and you are in the position where you are going to have to increase the stake to cover your losses, if you wait a little while you may find that the horse drifts out to 20-1, thereby eliminating the need to increase your stake.

The key point is:-

WATCH THE PRICES AT ALL TIMES.

When there are two horses tied as outsiders, then back them both, the odds will permit this.

If there are more than 2 tied as outsider, which is very uncommon, so uncommon in fact that it is hardly worth mentioning, but I do attempt to cover every eventuality, in such an event NO BET.

25-1 or over,it is what we looking for but it will be only a one point to 2 big max.

33-1 or over, NO BET. 33-1 winners in if it is a small fields like between 4 to 8 runners. because they are rare as hen's teeth.

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[hexaform]

Re: System Thos

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