What Im I missing here?

[knobbo]

Dont know if this is right place but how and ever... Say I have an event that is 75% likey to happen. Bookies have it priced at 1.5. (So bookies have priced event to happen at 50%). This tells me that there is no value in this right??? But when I run the maths through this im getting at ROI of 12.5% Say we do 20 bets @ 10 quid stakes. (Total Staked = 200) We win 15 bets (75% of 20 bets) So 15 bets @ 10*15*0.5 = 75 winnings We lose 5 bets. So loss is 5*10 = 50 Nett Profit is 25 (75-50) divided by stakes (200) = 12.5% ROI What am i missing here?

[methuselah]

Re: What Im I missing here? Good one knobbo. A twist on the puzzle about 3 men in a restaurant giving the waiter 30 pounds etc.