knobbo Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Dont know if this is right place but how and ever... Say I have an event that is 75% likey to happen. Bookies have it priced at 1.5. (So bookies have priced event to happen at 50%). This tells me that there is no value in this right??? But when I run the maths through this im getting at ROI of 12.5% Say we do 20 bets @ 10 quid stakes. (Total Staked = 200) We win 15 bets (75% of 20 bets) So 15 bets @ 10*15*0.5 = 75 winnings We lose 5 bets. So loss is 5*10 = 50 Nett Profit is 25 (75-50) divided by stakes (200) = 12.5% ROI What am i missing here? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
methuselah Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Good one knobbo. A twist on the puzzle about 3 men in a restaurant giving the waiter 30 pounds etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? 1.5 is not 50% to happen it's 66.6%:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slapdash Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Say I have an event that is 75% likey to happen. Bookies have it priced at 1.5. (So bookies have priced event to happen at 50%). No. Odds of 1.5 are fair if it has a 66.67% chance, not 50%. This tells me that there is no value in this right??? If you think it has a higher chance than the bookies' odds suggest, then there is value. But when I run the maths through this im getting at ROI of 12.5% That looks right to me. Though I find it easier to think in terms of returns rather than profit/loss. If the bet is at odds of 1.5, then your return from a 1 unit bet is 1.5 units if it wins. So if it wins 75% of the time, your average return from a 1 unit bet is 0.75 x 1.5 = 1.125, or a ROI of 12.5%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KThom Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? 1.5 isn't 50%. 2.0 is Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knobbo Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Say Im backing @ 1.57. What % of event happening would my edge be 0%? Can soemone put htis is a formulae for me! thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cramer Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? 100 / 1.57 = 63.69% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knobbo Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? 100 / 1.57 = 63.69% Cheers! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knobbo Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? 100 / 1.57 = 63.69% Cheers! Now off to crack slicers bet!....:eyes:eyes:eyes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? You think this is the way to crack that puzzle??!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? OMG...... he's back again :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottyXS Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? OMG...... he's back again :wall:wall:wall:wall:wall :rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 12, 2010 Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? :rollin:rollin:rollin:rollin My original comment wasn't THAT funny.... a simple :rollin:rollin would have been sufficient. After all, we don't want to give too much encouragement to Mr. Kmabet ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I feel that was a little unfair my friend!! I did not begin the discussion again I merely responded with my expert advice. Please do not clog another mans thread with abuse/jokes or threats aimed at me as this is what happens to my threads. Insane really that people on here hate me so much! :sad Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xchangeDollarz Posted March 15, 2010 Share Posted March 15, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Cheers! Now off to crack slicers bet!....:eyes:eyes:eyes Ughh, share with me dammit! :cash :lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? ..... Insane really that people on here hate me so much! :sad Stop being so defensive, Kmabet.... I'm sure nobody "hates" you..... in fact, I think most people find you quite amusing :lol. But you bring this on yourself with the way you (excuse the expression) prick-teased everyone with your mysterious third bet thread (now locked). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctoritcata Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I feel that was a little unfair my friend!! I did not begin the discussion again I merely responded with my expert advice. :rollin:rollin:rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Stop being so defensive' date= Kmabet.... I'm sure nobody "hates" you..... in fact, I think most people find you quite amusing :lol. But you bring this on yourself with the way you (excuse the expression) prick-teased everyone with your mysterious third bet thread (now locked). Ok! Sorry for jumping to it but I am sure you will understand my being defensive after the abuse I have taken over the past couple of months! This here thread is another mans concern and I do not want to detract from it with talk of my old thread so can we just leave it at that please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? :rollin:rollin:rollin I'd like to bring everyone's attention to the following... People have criticised my contribution to my own and now others threads. Doctoritcata, your only contributions to this forum since you joined have been insults and threats directed at me. You have never made a post that is not aimed at me, a criticism of me, a threat, an insult, the list goes on. You have made absolutely no positive contribution to anything on the forum other than this. You follow me around from thread to thread, forum to forum insulting me yet offering nothing helpful or positive to anybody else? I can't help but summise that you are just a sad little man with nothing to offer, nothing to say and not much to live for. Fair assumption? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jase82 Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I'd like to bring everyone's attention to the following... People have criticised my contribution to my own and now others threads. Doctoritcata, your only contributions to this forum since you joined have been insults and threats directed at me. You have never made a post that is not aimed at me, a criticism of me, a threat, an insult, the list goes on. You have made absolutely no positive contribution to anything on the forum other than this. You follow me around from thread to thread, forum to forum insulting me yet offering nothing helpful or positive to anybody else? I can't help but summise that you are just a sad little man with nothing to offer, nothing to say and not much to live for. Fair assumption? Can I borrow this speech, or would that be plagiarism? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Can I borrow this speech' date=' or would that be plagiarism?[/quote'] I have consulted my lawyer and.... you would be OK, providing you give due acknowledgment to the original author ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Can I borrow this speech' date=' or would that be plagiarism?[/quote'] Depends what you want to borrow it for good buddy!!:beer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 16, 2010 Share Posted March 16, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? Depends what you want to borrow it for good buddy!!:beer Que ? :unsure EDIT: silly me... just put a comma between "for" and "good" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctoritcata Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I'd like to bring everyone's attention to the following... People have criticised my contribution to my own and now others threads. Doctoritcata, your only contributions to this forum since you joined have been insults and threats directed at me. You have never made a post that is not aimed at me, a criticism of me, a threat, an insult, the list goes on. You have made absolutely no positive contribution to anything on the forum other than this. You follow me around from thread to thread, forum to forum insulting me yet offering nothing helpful or positive to anybody else? I can't help but summise that you are just a sad little man with nothing to offer, nothing to say and not much to live for. Fair assumption? Of course you are right. You are always right:lol I am a sad little man and i have nothing to live for and i am following you like a puppy:D You are my inspiration But i'm just trying to help you;) I promise when you are cured i wont criticize you anymore:) Btw i did not addressed you, why r u trying to insult me again my dear boy:) Havent you realized so far that i cant be touched (not by you anyway)?:D Will it make you feel better or make others to believe you are a victim and im such a moron:)?Will it make others to forget how you lied on your thread about obvious things like how you never posted it elsewhere (and therefore you were lying about having this method work cause you were asking for help on other forum while claiming here you "cracked it" and so on and so on...) But again - im not trying anything but helping you:) The sooner you realize you are suffering delusions and schizophrenia/split personality the better you will be.And then the right prescription can be used:) I'm only commenting on you cause you are the only one who needs help on here - thats why my posts are mainly towards you:) All the other guys have something useful to say and contribute. And it is not true that i havent said anything constructive to you - i told you that you cant make this fantasy of yours to work:D This is purely constructive it will save a lot of time if you listened:) I can also tell you why it will never work but im not going to cause i need you to admit the truth(problem).It is the first step to recover:)) Seriously i dont feel comfortable spaming others good ppl thread - they dont deserve this,so pls dont try to attack me again,eh...:)? You little naive boy you:)) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kmabet Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I do believe that you have just proved everything I said to be correct! How terribly clever of you Dr. And I am naive? No more from you please as I've had my fill! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doctoritcata Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? I do believe that you have just proved everything I said to be correct! How terribly clever of you Dr. And I am naive? No more from you please as I've had my fill! :lol Are you sure you dont need glasses? Try and reread it.I cant go more sarcastic or more expressive then this:) Im sorry for you if you lack that much sense of sarcasm (or humor if you like):lol May be thats why you still cant get it that everybody is in the picture with your claims and lies. No more from you and no more from me - yes?!I've had my fill too!(you see i can use the exclamation mark as well):D:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grex Posted March 17, 2010 Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? This is getting out of hand. The author of the thread seems to have lost interest..... but he did start it with..... Cheers! Now off to crack slicers bet!....:eyes:eyes:eyes .... no he didn't.... yes he did.... no he didn't....:wall:wall Time to lock it, methinks (just like most of the threads to which Kmabet contributes :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knobbo Posted March 17, 2010 Author Share Posted March 17, 2010 Re: What Im I missing here? This is getting out of hand. The author of the thread seems to have lost interest..... but he did start it with..... .... no he didn't.... yes he did.... no he didn't....:wall:wall Time to lock it, methinks (just like most of the threads to which Kmabet contributes :tongue2) 100% agree on locking this. School yard shit going on. Cope on people Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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