Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

[Shinigami]

Arsenal		versus		Burnley
Shinigami Recommends:
2-0 , 3-1 , 3-0
2 , 3 , 4 goals
Arsenal -1
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Van Persie	789	452	Steven Fletcher
MF	Andrei Arshavin	824	473	Wade Elliott
DF	William Gallas	726	401	Tyrone Mears
GK	Manuel Almunia	650	665	Brian Jensen
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Nicklas Bendtner	472	452	Steven Fletcher
MF	Cesc Fabregas	780	473	Wade Elliott
DF	William Gallas	726	401	Tyrone Mears
GK	Manuel Almunia	650	665	Brian Jensen
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
Arsenal moved within three points of leaders Chelsea with a sensational 3-1 comeback at Stoke on Saturday. However in the process Aaron Ramsey picked up a nasty-looking injury.
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		2.71	0.71		3
Average Goals Conceded:		1	3.07
Optimal Average:		2.89	0.86		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		2.1	0.72		3
Expected Goals to Concede:		1.02	3.07
Discounted Average:		2.59	0.87
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	1.04	0.96	0.09
2.	HFW/AMF:	1	0.58	0.42
3.	HFW/ADF:	1.18	0.62	0.55
4.	HFW/AGK:	0.71	0.7	0.01
5.	HMF/AMF:	1.65	0.61	1.04
6.	HMF/AFW:	1.73	1	0.72
7.	HMF/ADF:	1.95	0.65	1.29
8.	HMF/AGK:	1.17	0.73	0.45
9.	HDF/AFW:	1.61	0.85	0.76
10.	HDF/AMF:	1.53	0.51	1.02
11.	HGK/AMF:	1.37	0.85	0.52
12.	HGK/AFW:	1.44	1.41	0.03
	Sum:	16.38	9.47	6.91
	Average:	1.36	0.79	0.58
	Percentage:	63%	37%	27%
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** RED & NEGATIVE numbers indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.81	0.43
	Defence Power:	1.29	0.49
	Attack Power:	65%	35%	30.94
	Defence Power:	72%	28%	44.61
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		78%	13%	8%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		74%	15%	10%
Fair Odds:		1.36	6.49	9.63

[Shinigami]

Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Real Madrid		versus		Sevilla
Shinigami Recommends:
2-1 , 1-1 , 2-0
2 , 3 , 4 goals
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Gonzalo Higuain	769	751	Luis Fabiano
MF	C. Ronaldo	930	723	Renato
DF	Marcelo	701	786	Sebastien S.
GK	Iker Casilas	702	622	Andres Palop
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Gonzalo Higuain	769	751	Luis Fabiano
MF	Kaka	686	698	Jesus Navas
DF	Sergio Ramos	681	786	Sebastien S.
GK	Iker Casilas	702	622	Andres Palop
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos wary of Jesus Navas as Madrid face Sevilla...
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		3.42	1.45		3
Average Goals Conceded:		0.67	1.18
Optimal Average:		2.3	1.06		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		2.96	1.61		3
Expected Goals to Concede:		0.76	1.16
Discounted Average:		2.06	1.18
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	1.02	0.98	0.05
2.	HFW/AMF:	1.1	1.09	0.01
3.	HFW/ADF:	0.98	1.1	-0.12
4.	HFW/AGK:	1.24	1.07	0.17
5.	HMF/AMF:	0.98	1.02	-0.03
6.	HMF/AFW:	0.91	0.91	0.01
7.	HMF/ADF:	0.87	1.02	-0.15
8.	HMF/AGK:	1.1	0.99	0.11
9.	HDF/AFW:	0.91	1.02	-0.12
10.	HDF/AMF:	0.98	1.15	-0.17
11.	HGK/AMF:	1.01	0.91	0.10
12.	HGK/AFW:	0.93	0.81	0.13
	Sum:	12.04	12.07	-0.04
	Average:	1	1.01	-0.00
	Percentage:	50%	50%	-0%
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** RED & NEGATIVE numbers indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.69	0.7
	Defence Power:	0.98	0.68
	Attack Power:	50%	50%	-0.68
	Defence Power:	59%	41%	18.15
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		65%	19%	16%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		58%	21%	21%
Fair Odds:		1.74	4.76	4.7

[Shinigami]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

Everton		versus		Hull City
Shinigami Recommends:
1-0 , 2-0 , 1-1
1 , 2 , 3 goals
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Louis Saha	580	165	Josmer Altidore
MF	Tim Cahill	709	579	Geovanni
DF	Joseph Yobo	612	461	Andy Dawson
GK	Tim Howard	701	543	Bozak Myhill
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	L. Donovan	128	165	Josmer Altidore
MF	Tim Cahill	709	556	Hunt
DF	Joseph Yobo	612	461	Andy Dawson
GK	Tim Howard	701	543	Bozak Myhill
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
Hull centre-half Anthony Gardner is, however, ruled out for the game as is Ian Ashbee with a long-standing injury, while Geovanni and Dean Marney are doubtful and Craig Fagan is suspended. Everton have no fresh injury concerns with Louis Saha, Philippe Senderos and Marouane Fellaini still out, while Phil Jagielka could be in line for a first league start this season. Key midfielder Tim Cahill is also set to return to action following his calf injury.
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		1.64	0.5		2
Average Goals Conceded:		1.21	2.43
Optimal Average:		2.04	0.86		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		1.08	0.48		2
Expected Goals to Concede:		1.21	2.43
Discounted Average:		1.76	0.85
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	0.78	1.29	(0.51)
2.	HFW/AMF:	0.23	0.23	(0.00)
3.	HFW/ADF:	0.28	0.27	0.01
4.	HFW/AGK:	0.24	0.24	0.00
5.	HMF/AMF:	1.28	0.78	0.49
6.	HMF/AFW:	4.3	4.34	(0.05)
7.	HMF/ADF:	1.54	0.91	0.63
8.	HMF/AGK:	1.31	0.79	0.51
9.	HDF/AFW:	3.71	3.6	0.11
10.	HDF/AMF:	1.1	0.65	0.45
11.	HGK/AMF:	1.26	0.77	0.49
12.	HGK/AFW:	4.25	4.24	0.01
	Sum:	20.25	18.12	2.14
	Average:	1.69	1.51	0.18
	Percentage:	53%	47%	0.06
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** Numbers in brackets indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.54	0.36
	Defence Power:	1.31	0.5
	Attack Power:	60%	40%	20.15
	Defence Power:	72%	28%	44.96
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		65%	20%	15%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		59%	23%	18%
Fair Odds:		1.7	4.3	5.61

[Shinigami]

Palermo vs Livorno

Palermo		versus		Livorno
Shinigami Recommends:
1-0 , 2-0 , 1-1
1 , 2 , 3 goals
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Fabrizo Miccoli	675	337	C. Lucarelli
MF	Fabio Simplicio	565	442	A. Candreva
DF	F. Balzeretti	445	394	Mirko Pieri
GK	Rubinho	631	631	Rubinho
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Fabrizo Miccoli	675	337	C. Lucarelli
MF	M. Bresciano	537	442	A. Candreva
DF	F. Balzeretti	445	394	Mirko Pieri
GK	G. Brichetto	442	631	Rubinho
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
GK Giacomo Brichetto (on loan from Novara)
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		1.69	0.5		2
Average Goals Conceded:		0.69	1.67
Optimal Average:		1.68	0.6		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		1.65	0.58		2
Expected Goals to Concede:		0.8	1.38
Discounted Average:		1.51	0.69
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	2	0.5	1.50
2.	HFW/AMF:	1.53	0.63	0.90
3.	HFW/ADF:	1.71	0.76	0.96
4.	HFW/AGK:	1.07	0.76	0.31
5.	HMF/AMF:	1.21	0.82	0.39
6.	HMF/AFW:	1.59	0.65	0.94
7.	HMF/ADF:	1.36	0.99	0.37
8.	HMF/AGK:	0.85	1	(0.15)
9.	HDF/AFW:	1.32	0.58	0.74
10.	HDF/AMF:	1.01	0.73	0.27
11.	HGK/AMF:	1	1.18	(0.18)
12.	HGK/AFW:	1.31	0.93	0.38
	Sum:	15.97	9.55	6.43
	Average:	1.33	0.8	0.54
	Percentage:	63%	37%	0.25
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** Numbers in brackets indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.83	0.55
	Defence Power:	0.87	0.72
	Attack Power:	60%	40%	20.33
	Defence Power:	55%	45%	9.18
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		64%	23%	13%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		57%	26%	17%
Fair Odds:		1.75	3.85	5.94

[Grex]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) Impressive and colourful presentations, Shinigami :ok..... puts my simple Excel tables to shame :$. But I think we would all benefit from a description of the "system" you use to arrive at your various recommendations. I hope this isn't a "lead-in" to a paid service :unsure

[Shinigami]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

Impressive and colourful presentations' date= Shinigami :ok..... puts my simple Excel tables to shame :$. But I think we would all benefit from a description of the "system" you use to arrive at your various recommendations. I hope this isn't a "lead-in" to a paid service :unsure

Oh, this is based on the assumption that the success and failure of a league team depends on 20% of it's key players (80/20 principle). Which means, you'll first have to believe that the "average goals scored/conceded" are essentially achieved by the "Top Forward" , "Top Midfielder", "Top Defender", and "Top Goalkeeper". However, since the actual line-up of key players for the match in question may not always be the usual top-ranking players, you'll have to either read match previews or follow the progress of the leagues to anticipate the probable line-up of the upcoming match, by finding out who has been suspended/injured/unavailable... The new list will thus form the "Discounted Players", since their performance won't be on par with the original Top Players. The difference in player rankings between the Top key-position players and the probable players forms a "discount rate", which will then be used to find out the "discounted" average goals scored/conceded. The discounted averages of both teams are added to form the "Total Goals Expected". IN the cased of "Arsenal vs Burnley", the total goal expected is "3". However, for betting purpose, i allow for +/-1 to recommend 2,3,4 goals... The discounted figures are then used in the poisson distribution process to find out the probability distribution. The first three mostly probable scores (generated by the poisson distribution) are used for betting purpose. In the case of, Arsenal vs Burnley, it's 2-0 , 3-1 , 3-0... and since in all three scores there's 2-goal margin, it naturally follows that i recommend Arsenal-1... there isn't much meat if u were to just bet on 1x2 Arsenal...:)

[relf]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) Just a small question I have. I used to calculate likely scorelines with Poisson, but I find the likely scorelines mostly between 10-12% for each of the top 3 most probable ones. Thus, my point is that, even with 3 most probable scorelines, it means I will only be accurate 30-40% of the time. At this kind of strike rate, it's not enough to make profit from scorelines. Just wanted to know what are your percentages for your scorelines? Is it more or less the same, or your 3 scorelines cover much more than just 30-40%? Thanks.

[Shinigami]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

Just a small question I have. I used to calculate likely scorelines with Poisson, but I find the likely scorelines mostly between 10-12% for each of the top 3 most probable ones. Thus, my point is that, even with 3 most probable scorelines, it means I will only be accurate 30-40% of the time. At this kind of strike rate, it's not enough to make profit from scorelines. Just wanted to know what are your percentages for your scorelines? Is it more or less the same, or your 3 scorelines cover much more than just 30-40%? Thanks.

i haven't had much luck with the standard poisson calculation either, and this is the reason why i've come up with this "discounted" process by making use of player ranking stats. Taking the difference between key position players most likely playing the match and the top players, the average is discounted to form a closer fit to the actual game.

[Shinigami]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

ENG PR

23:00

FT

[3] Arsenal

3 - 1

Burnley [19]

[merlin]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) ..... a magnifying glass would be a good thing here. :loon

[clarky101]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) Why such small writing ??????????????????????????????????

[Grex]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) No problem for me :loon:loon:loon

[merlin]

Re: Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar) NOR ME NOW......:lol