Weekend Picks (6-7 Mar)

[Shinigami]

Arsenal		versus		Burnley
Shinigami Recommends:
2-0 , 3-1 , 3-0
2 , 3 , 4 goals
Arsenal -1
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Van Persie	789	452	Steven Fletcher
MF	Andrei Arshavin	824	473	Wade Elliott
DF	William Gallas	726	401	Tyrone Mears
GK	Manuel Almunia	650	665	Brian Jensen
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Nicklas Bendtner	472	452	Steven Fletcher
MF	Cesc Fabregas	780	473	Wade Elliott
DF	William Gallas	726	401	Tyrone Mears
GK	Manuel Almunia	650	665	Brian Jensen
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
Arsenal moved within three points of leaders Chelsea with a sensational 3-1 comeback at Stoke on Saturday. However in the process Aaron Ramsey picked up a nasty-looking injury.
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		2.71	0.71		3
Average Goals Conceded:		1	3.07
Optimal Average:		2.89	0.86		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		2.1	0.72		3
Expected Goals to Concede:		1.02	3.07
Discounted Average:		2.59	0.87
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	1.04	0.96	0.09
2.	HFW/AMF:	1	0.58	0.42
3.	HFW/ADF:	1.18	0.62	0.55
4.	HFW/AGK:	0.71	0.7	0.01
5.	HMF/AMF:	1.65	0.61	1.04
6.	HMF/AFW:	1.73	1	0.72
7.	HMF/ADF:	1.95	0.65	1.29
8.	HMF/AGK:	1.17	0.73	0.45
9.	HDF/AFW:	1.61	0.85	0.76
10.	HDF/AMF:	1.53	0.51	1.02
11.	HGK/AMF:	1.37	0.85	0.52
12.	HGK/AFW:	1.44	1.41	0.03
	Sum:	16.38	9.47	6.91
	Average:	1.36	0.79	0.58
	Percentage:	63%	37%	27%
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** RED & NEGATIVE numbers indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.81	0.43
	Defence Power:	1.29	0.49
	Attack Power:	65%	35%	30.94
	Defence Power:	72%	28%	44.61
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		78%	13%	8%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		74%	15%	10%
Fair Odds:		1.36	6.49	9.63

[Shinigami]

Real Madrid vs Sevilla

Real Madrid		versus		Sevilla
Shinigami Recommends:
2-1 , 1-1 , 2-0
2 , 3 , 4 goals
	Appendix:
	Optimal Indices Based on each Team's Top Key Players'
	Performances for the Past 12 Months:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Gonzalo Higuain	769	751	Luis Fabiano
MF	C. Ronaldo	930	723	Renato
DF	Marcelo	701	786	Sebastien S.
GK	Iker Casilas	702	622	Andres Palop
	Discounted Indices Based on Probable Line-ups
	of Key Position Players for this Match:
		----Player Indices----
		Home	Away
FW	Gonzalo Higuain	769	751	Luis Fabiano
MF	Kaka	686	698	Jesus Navas
DF	Sergio Ramos	681	786	Sebastien S.
GK	Iker Casilas	702	622	Andres Palop
The discount primarily reflects this piece of news:
Real Madrid defender Sergio Ramos wary of Jesus Navas as Madrid face Sevilla...
Before Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Average Goals Scored:		3.42	1.45		3
Average Goals Conceded:		0.67	1.18
Optimal Average:		2.3	1.06		▲
After Discount:		Home	Away		Total Goals
Expected Goals to Score:		2.96	1.61		3
Expected Goals to Concede:		0.76	1.16
Discounted Average:		2.06	1.18
Discounted Player Ratios:
1.	HFW/AFW:	1.02	0.98	0.05
2.	HFW/AMF:	1.1	1.09	0.01
3.	HFW/ADF:	0.98	1.1	-0.12
4.	HFW/AGK:	1.24	1.07	0.17
5.	HMF/AMF:	0.98	1.02	-0.03
6.	HMF/AFW:	0.91	0.91	0.01
7.	HMF/ADF:	0.87	1.02	-0.15
8.	HMF/AGK:	1.1	0.99	0.11
9.	HDF/AFW:	0.91	1.02	-0.12
10.	HDF/AMF:	0.98	1.15	-0.17
11.	HGK/AMF:	1.01	0.91	0.10
12.	HGK/AFW:	0.93	0.81	0.13
	Sum:	12.04	12.07	-0.04
	Average:	1	1.01	-0.00
	Percentage:	50%	50%	-0%
***HFW = Home Forward , HMF = Home Midfielder , AGK = Away Goalkeeper , etc
*** RED & NEGATIVE numbers indicate that the Away team is superior.
		Home	Away
	Attack Power:	0.69	0.7
	Defence Power:	0.98	0.68
	Attack Power:	50%	50%	-0.68
	Defence Power:	59%	41%	18.15
Probability Distribution:		Home	Draw	Away
Optimal Poisson 1x2		65%	19%	16%
Discounted Poisson 1x2		58%	21%	21%
Fair Odds:		1.74	4.76	4.7