dannkez2407 Posted February 27, 2010 Share Posted February 27, 2010 ok this system will be based around both backs and lays using just the english leagues and scottish premier, i will use mr ross' ratings to determine value. The criteria will involve the backs being forecast by selecting a minimum rating, applying that to a mean to determine a percentage and generating what i would class as the value odds, if they are value they are selected. The lays will be selected by those within a ratings criteria that lower than usual for what their odds suggest. The criteria is fixed numerically but i wont reveal just yet. Backs Bolton 10pts @ 2.1 chelsea 10pts @ 1.46 liverpool 10pts @ 1.39 tottenham 10pts @ 2.14 ipswich 10pts @ 1.89 leicester 10pts @ 2.74 sheff uts 10pts @ 1.65 west brom 10pts @ 1.63 carlisle 10pts @ 1.97 southampton 10pts @ 1.66 bradford 10pts @ 1.66 morecambe 10pts @ 2.24 notts county 10pts @ 1.56 shrewsbury 10pts @ 2.34 altrincham 10pts @ 1.39 kidderminster 10pts @ 1.76 york 10pts @ 1.42 aberdeen 10pts @ 2.4 motherwell 10pts @ 2.1 lays birmingham 9.9pt liability @ 1.99 coventry 8.9pt liability @ 1.89 reading 9.1pt liability @ 1.91 brighton 9.4pt liability @ 1.94 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 27, 2010 Author Share Posted February 27, 2010 Re: Ratings for value 12 out of 17 on the backs so far not so good on the lays, all 4 lost(or won so to speak) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted February 28, 2010 Author Share Posted February 28, 2010 Re: Ratings for value Backs Bolton 10pts @ 2.1...+11 chelsea 10pts @ 1.46...-10 liverpool 10pts @ 1.39...+3.9 tottenham 10pts @ 2.14...+11.4 ipswich 10pts @ 1.89...-10 leicester 10pts @ 2.74...+17.4 sheff uts 10pts @ 1.65...+6.5 west brom 10pts @ 1.63...+6.3 carlisle 10pts @ 1.97...+9.7 southampton 10pts @ 1.66...+6.6 bradford 10pts @ 1.66...+6.6 morecambe 10pts @ 2.24...+12.4 notts county 10pts @ 1.56...+5.6 shrewsbury 10pts @ 2.34...+13.4 altrincham 10pts @ 1.39...-10 kidderminster 10pts @ 1.76...+7.6 york 10pts @ 1.42...-10 aberdeen 10pts @ 2.4...-10 motherwell 10pts @ 2.1...+11 total stake = 190 profit loss = +79.4 total yield = 41.79% strike rate = 13/19 = 68.42% lays birmingham 9.9pt liability @ 1.99...-9.9 coventry 8.9pt liability @ 1.89...-8.9 reading 9.1pt liability @ 1.91...-9.1 brighton 9.4pt liability @ 1.94...-9.4 total stake = 37.3 profit loss = -37.3 total yield = -100% strike rate = 0/4 = 0% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Ratings for value hello mate, cheers for that ill amend, too used to putting them down as winners haha. i wish i could be more selective but was shocked at the amount of selections it threw up, although i dont envisage that many each week. ive reviewed the lays a little more, the ratings had the home sides down as losers funnily enough but my selection criteria will be more stringent next time round, not sure i got that right at all. in answer to your question do i back every team the system throws up? of course if value is present. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Ratings for value Good start you have there! :clap Will follow with interest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Ratings for value cheer relf :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmoi14 Posted March 1, 2010 Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Ratings for value what a start !!!!:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 1, 2010 Author Share Posted March 1, 2010 Re: Ratings for value cheers cmoi14 ok...tomorrows selections back southampton 10pts @ 2.2 lay darlington 25pts liability @ 3.5 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Ratings for value each round of fixtures, ill choose some top doubles for value so for tonights games - southampton/notts county double 10pts @ 2.8 :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 2, 2010 Author Share Posted March 2, 2010 Re: Ratings for value back southampton 10pts @ 2.2...+12 total stake = 200 profit loss = +91.4 total yield = 45.7% strike rate = 14/20 = 70% lay darlington 25pts liability @ 3.5...+10 total stake = 62.3 profit loss = -27.3 total yield = -43.82% strike rate = 1/5 = 20% Double southampton/notts county 10pts @ 2.8...+18 total stake = 10 profit loss = +18 total yield = 180% strike rate = 1/1 = 100% :cashall round :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Ratings for value backs west ham 10pts @ 1.81 everton 10pts @ 1.4 palace 10pts @ 2.82 derby 10pts @ 2.04 peterborough 10pts @ 2.76 charlton 10pts @ 1.4 leeds 10pts @ 1.48 mk dons 10pts @ 1.93 swindon 10pts @ 1.76 bournemouth 10pts @ 1.95 crewe 10pts @ 1.98 rochdale 10pts @ 1.39 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 5, 2010 Author Share Posted March 5, 2010 Re: Ratings for value doubles west ham/swindon 10pts @ 3.06 everton/crewe 10pts @ 2.6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Ratings for value west ham 10pts @ 1.81...-10 everton 10pts @ 1.4...+4 palace 10pts @ 2.82...+18.2 derby 10pts @ 2.04...+10.4 peterborough 10pts @ 2.76...-10 charlton 10pts @ 1.4...+4 leeds 10pts @ 1.48...-10 mk dons 10pts @ 1.93...+9.3 swindon 10pts @ 1.76...-10 bournemouth 10pts @ 1.95...+9.5 crewe 10pts @ 1.98...-10 rochdale 10pts @ 1.39...-10 total stake = 320 profit loss = +86.8 total yield = 27.13% strike rate = 20/32 = 62.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Ratings for value Great stuff dannkez :clap going well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Ratings for value thanks bedlam. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 7, 2010 Author Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Ratings for value punter, despite your comments they were more highly rated than the opposition and within the criteria set. I dont put personal opinion in to a system, thats not what its about. Its all about the maths. Im after high numbers each week and im more than happy to keep this is goin as is :-) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedlam Posted March 7, 2010 Share Posted March 7, 2010 Re: Ratings for value punter' date=' despite your comments they were more highly rated than the opposition and within the criteria set. I dont put personal opinion in to a system, thats not what its about. Its all about the maths. Im after high numbers each week and im more than happy to keep this is goin as is :-)[/quote'] Yes it's all about stats, so all selections are thrown up for a reason e.g, one of punterspal's criticisms was of the lay of Brighton, but that was their 1st home win for 4 months! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: Ratings for value selections for tonight notts co 10pts @ 1.83 crewe 10pts @ 1.9 mk dons 10pts @ 2.3 west brom 10pts @ 1.44 p'boro 10pts @ 3.5 portsmouth 10pts @ 2.38 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 9, 2010 Author Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: Ratings for value notts co 10pts @ 1.83...+8.3 crewe 10pts @ 1.9...+9 mk dons 10pts @ 2.3...+13 west brom 10pts @ 1.44...+4.4 p'boro 10pts @ 3.5...+25 portsmouth 10pts @ 2.38...-10 total stake = 380 profit loss = +136.5 total yield = 35.92% strike rate = 25/38 = 65.79% CANT SAY FAIRER THAN THAT :beer :cash Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1907zico Posted March 9, 2010 Share Posted March 9, 2010 Re: Ratings for value Keep it on Dannkez, this does look promising at least :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 10, 2010 Author Share Posted March 10, 2010 Re: Ratings for value cheers mate, its been the best start i have had to a football system so far. Im sure it wont always be like this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 10, 2010 Author Share Posted March 10, 2010 Re: Ratings for value for tonight reading 10pts @ 1.89 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 11, 2010 Author Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: Ratings for value Reading 10pts @ 1.89...+8.9 total stake = 390 profit loss = +145.4 total yield = 37.28% strike rate = 26/39 = 66.67% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
relf Posted March 11, 2010 Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: Ratings for value cheers mate' date=' its been the best start i have had to a football system so far. Im sure it wont always be like this[/quote'] Bound to be good and bad weeks - but it's always a good thing when everything's going right at the moment! Keep up the good work there! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 11, 2010 Author Share Posted March 11, 2010 Re: Ratings for value cheers relf, might bail out now before the bad run hits in :rollin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 12, 2010 Author Share Posted March 12, 2010 Re: Ratings for value tottenham 10pts @ 1.47 man utd 10pts @ 1.24 doncaster 10pts @ 2.08 ipswich 10pts @ 1.71 preston 10pts @ 2.96 reading 10pts @ 1.81 sheff utd 10pts @ 2.26 swansea 10pts @ 1.65 watford 10pts @ 1.79 west brom 10pts @ 1.61 leyton orient 10pts @ 2.3 southampton 10pts @ 2.51 stockport 10pts @ 2.7 burton 10pts @ 1.87 morecambe 10pts @ 1.85 notts county 10pts @ 1.86 :hope:hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Ratings for value tottenham 10pts @ 1.47...+4.7 doncaster 10pts @ 2.08...+10.8 ipswich 10pts @ 1.71...+7.1 preston 10pts @ 2.96...+19.6 reading 10pts @ 1.81...+8.1 sheff utd 10pts @ 2.26...-10 swansea 10pts @ 1.65...-10 watford 10pts @ 1.79...-10 west brom 10pts @ 1.61...+6.1 leyton orient 10pts @ 2.3...+13 southampton 10pts @ 2.51...+15.1 stockport 10pts @ 2.7...-10 burton 10pts @ 1.87...-10 morecambe 10pts @ 1.85...-10 total stake = 550 profit loss = +170.8 total yield = 31.05% strike rate = 34/55 = 61.82% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Ratings for value good profit for today, 2 more games to come - one tomorrow and one on monday Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 13, 2010 Author Share Posted March 13, 2010 Re: Ratings for value thanks for your opinion punter, im sure 90% of the other system lovers on here will tell you that a system should definitely not work off of judgement and what you 'think' might happen. as we all know football just doesnt work like that, and yes you may be right in saying i could take out losers from a long list but thats as easy as saying heres a list of matches being played this week, take a look at the stats and offer your opinion on who you think will win. This system works off ratings and then applying a value filter, putting a further opinion on it would only distort the stats and figures for a system worked on the core context im running this one on. You are right punter, but just not in the context of running a steady profit system with strict guide lines in place Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dannkez2407 Posted March 14, 2010 Author Share Posted March 14, 2010 Re: Ratings for value man utd 10pts @ 1.24...+2.4 total stake = 560 profit loss = +175.2 total yield = 31.29% strike rate = 35/56 = 62.5% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.