aatoo Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Another fairly complex system ive been looking at. would like people to pick the bones out of it if possible. Ok here goes I tend to only go for home favs here who have a decent goal scoring record Back over 2.5 goals Example £2 @ 2.16 = £2.32 profit Dutch correct scores using roughly half of profit so £1.30 1-0 9.2 1-1 7.0 2-0 14.0 Backing with 1.30 in total gives a profit +2.74 So if it goes over 2.5 goals profit equals 2.32-1.30 if home team scores and its 1-0 1-1 2-0 profit equals £2.74-£2 Now i can see if very small profits but this can clearly be scaled up. thoughts please? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jenspm Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method so basically, your bet is for the home team to score? using your example; stake = £3.30 potential winnings = max. ~£1 Meaning you're betting on home team to score at odds around 1.3, lower if it were to go under. Of course, you do have security of the 0-3 result, but with home favorites, how often does that happen? Sounds like an intricate way of betting on the home team to score, so I guess you could do this if you manage to "create" odds larger than the "home team to score" odds.. I don't know how this'd work out in practice. I'd test it out on Man U - West Ham today, odds for Man U to score are at 1.01 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aatoo Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method yeh exactly, seems to work well and also works on the markets that dont have home team to score. Like you say theres the added security of the +2.5 goals as well. For it to work well i tend to look for the odds of overs to be above 1.8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Razaldo9 Posted February 23, 2010 Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method So anything other than 0-0, 0-1 and 0-2 you win on? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aatoo Posted February 23, 2010 Author Share Posted February 23, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method yeh exactly that, the key is to look for decent value odds on overs. you just need to be confident the home team are stronger and will score Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodka Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Here you can calculate odds http://www.betcalc.com/eqprofitcalc.php I thing that you will hardly get odd over 1.3, a big risk if you ask me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aatoo Posted February 24, 2010 Author Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method its a calculated risk. back tested this for last season and there was a decent profit in it. You can even squeeze in 0-0 to the correct scores and still make a profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vodka Posted February 24, 2010 Share Posted February 24, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method And how do you plan to place bets, flat stakes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davd29 Posted March 6, 2010 Share Posted March 6, 2010 Re: Home team just has to score method its a calculated risk. back tested this for last season and there was a decent profit in it. You can even squeeze in 0-0 to the correct scores and still make a profit You get your stake back for 0-0 some insurance Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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